Climate Change and Leisure and Tourism in Snowdonia

Introduction
Over the last decade the subject of climate change has become far more apparent as not a day goes by without the topic being mentioned in
some context within the media. Whilst the majority of us know what the term refers to or why it is occurring, our understanding of its impacts
on our everyday lives is somewhat less. Many of us associate the effects of climate change with the natural environment and fail to make the
link with other sectors, whether they are social, cultural or economic. However, all of these will all be affected to varying degrees by climate
change, whether those impacts are direct or indirect, or positive or negative. One such industry that is very evident in Snowdonia and that will
experience both positive and negative impacts as a result of climate change is the leisure and tourism industry.

Leisure and Tourism in Snowdonia

Due to its stunning landscape and wide ranging recreational opportunities,
Snowdonia is a haven for international tourists, domestic visitors, or those who are
simply visiting the National Park for a day. Whether they are looking for a quiet break
by the sea or yearning to take advantage of the vast array of outdoor activities that
the area has to offer,
leisure and tourism is one of the leading industries in terms of its importance to the
economy, employment and communities of Snowdonia. To highlight this, a study
undertaken in 2000 estimated that over 8 million people visit Snowdonia annually,
contributing up to almost 200 million to the local economy. This is likely to have

increased significantly since then, and so its easy to see the importance of the leisure and tourism to the National Park.
Similarly to other sectors, if not more so, the leisure and tourism industry is considered to be highly sensitive to the weather, meaning climate
change has the potential to impact on it more than many others. However, not all impacts will necessarily be negative. For example, provided
that appropriate adaptation measures are implemented and with adequate planning, climate change could lead to a successful development
of the Welsh visitor economy over the coming century, as our climate becomes warmer and seasonal weather patterns change. However,
these will not be without associated risks such as the predicted increase in the frequency of severe weather events and enhanced risk of
coastal and inland flooding. It is therefore essential that any decisions made in relation to the leisure and tourism sector take account of these
threats whilst looking to make the most of the potential benefits that climate change will bring.

Snowdonia 2090s
By the 2090s, Snowdonias climate will feel very different from that we know today. Based on the latest climate modelling techniques, the
following changes are predicted in Snowdonia by the end of the 21 st century using 3 scenarios based on differing levels of greenhouse gas
emissions, referred to as low-, medium- and high-emissions scenarios (please note we are currently on course for a high emissions scenario):
Scenario
Low
Medium
High
Scenario
Low
Medium
High

Mean Summer Temp Increase (C)*

2.5
3.3
4.2
Mean change in summer precipitation (%)*
-11.3
-17.4
-22

*baseline levels 1961 1990 average.

Mean Winter Temp Increase (C)*

2.5
2.9
3.5
Mean change in winter precipitation (%)*
13.6
14.9
20.6

In addition to a change in our climate, experts predict that severe weather events are due
to become more frequent, with an increased likelihood of drought and periods of heavy
rainfall. Whilst the prospect of milder winters and warmer, drier summers may be
welcomed by tourist providers and business owners alike, an increase in visitor numbers will
bring about its own problems i.e. increased risk of wild-fires and pressures on infrastructure.
In addition, climatic projections suggest increased sea levels, posing a threat to some coastal
locations. While climate change will bring about new opportunities for the visitor economy,
it could equally be detrimental should appropriate adaptation not be undertaken where
required.

New Opportunities
While the vast majority of media headlines focus on the threats posed by climate change, it is worth remembering that it may bring about new
economic opportunities to many. Studies show that upward of 80% of British tourists cite poor UK weather as their primary reason for
holidaying abroad. In conjunction with factors such as rising fuel prices and increasing awareness of environmental issues, hotter, drier
summers and milder winters may therefore enhance the popularity of Snowdonia as a holiday destination for tourists from the British Isles. In
addition to this, traditional foreign holiday
resorts, such as those in the Mediterranean,
may become unfavourable as higher
temperatures impact on tourist comfort and
health, landscapes and wildlife and on water
resources in those regions. Therefore, as well
as becoming less attractive to British tourists,
we could see an increase in the number of
foreign tourists from such areas visiting
Wales, reversing several decades of trend! To
Figure 1 visitor numbers to Wales in 2006 and 2007

highlight this potential, Figure 1 shows how visitor numbers in 2006, with a warmer/drier than average summer, attracted far more domestic
AND international tourists compared to the summer of 2007, which was cooler and wetter than average.
It is also worth bearing in mind that holidays as they were traditionally considered have changed, none more so than here in Wales. Whereas
beach holidays were once primarily seen as the main form of attracting visitors to Wales, active holidays have become increasingly popular
since the early 1990s. Whether it is outdoor recreation such as golf, mountain biking or hiking, or indoor activities such as visiting museums or
places of cultural and historical significance, the diversity of activities available to those visiting the area has increased dramatically (whilst the
latter examples may not seem as relevant to Snowdonia as outdoor based activities, it is worth remembering that north-west Wales boasts
some of the best medieval castles in the world, landmarks which attract thousands of visitors annually in their own right and therefore must
not be ignored when considered alongside the more traditional attractions which draw visitors to Snowdonia). This demand in outdoor
recreation has lead to a boom in the development of activity centres
in and around Snowdonia, such as mountain biking facilities at
Coed-y-Brenin near Dolgellau and Llechwedd Quarries in Blaenau
Ffestiniog, and high ropes courses at Llanberis and Betws-y-Coed.
Whilst Snowdonia will always attract the more traditional outdoor
recreationists due to the nature of its landscapes, such centres are
opening up the National Park to a whole new audience, an audience
which is only likely to grow over the coming decades.

A study of Snowdonia
In 2010, Visit Wales, The Welsh Government and the Countryside
Council for Wales commissioned ADAS UK to undertake an
assessment of the likely impacts climate change on the leisure and
tourism industry in Wales, entitled The Impact of Climate Change on
the Welsh Visitor Economy. Specifically, the scope of the research
was to examine the impact of climate change on the demand for

tourism and recreational activities in Wales (rather than impacts on the supply-side for the visitor economy).
The study looked at the impact weather has on peoples choice of activities and how climate change might impact on peoples recreational
habits. Betws-y-Coed, a popular tourist destination within Snowdonia National Park, was used within the study to highlight the likely impacts
of climate change on the leisure and tourism industry in rural areas. The area was chosen due to its ability to represent a wide range of
accommodation types, outdoor activities and natural resources. The study calculated the baseline and optimum weather conditions needed
for people to partake in a wide range of leisure activities. Of all the activities considered as part of the study, the most relevant for Snowdonia
were beach-based activities (both sunbathing and active beach recreation), mountain biking and hiking. The estimated thresholds used in the
study are shown in Figure 2 (below).
Activity

Temperature C and precipitation ranges

Base Lower

Base Upper

Optimum Lower

Optimum Upper

Beach (sunbathing)

26C and no rain

N/A

30C and no rain

N/A

Beach (active)

18C and no rain

N/A

26C and no rain

N/A

Mountain biking

12C and no rain

30C and no rain

16C and no rain

26C and no rain

Walking/Hiking

12C and <10mm rain

30C and <10mm rain

16C and <10mm rain

26C and <10mm rain

Figure 2. Baseline and optimum weather ranges for popular visitor activities within Snowdonia National Park

Based on the above, the key findings of the study were as follows:

The number of optimum days above the lower threshold suitable for outdoor activities is north Wales will likely increase by 14 days
per annum by 2050 based on a medium-emissions scenario. This suggests an associated increase in the number of people visiting the
area to partake in outdoor recreation over the coming decades.

It also suggests an increase in the number of days

above the upper threshold of optimum conditions
for outdoor recreation, from 1.1 days per annum
to 12.1. Should conditions become too
uncomfortable for outdoor recreation, then
numbers could drop, thus potentially cancelling out
any increase at the other end of the scale!

In addition to the above, the study used trails on

Snowdon, the Ogwen Valley and Coed-y-Brenin Mountain
Biking Centre near Dolgellau to show how 2 consecutive
summers with contrasting weather conditions had
profound impacts on the number of people partaking in
outdoor recreation at these locations. In the summer of
2006, weather conditions were both warmer and drier
than usual, whereas July 2007 was the opposite that is, it
was wetter and milder than average. The results were
Figure 3. Number of walkers recorded on Snowdon in 2006 and 2007
somewhat surprising, with more people partaking in
walking during the wetter, milder July of 2007 as opposed to the warmer, drier summer of 2006 (see Figure 3). This suggests that for many
people, the weather had become too hot in 2006 for walking thus warmer summers in the future may not be to everyones taste!
What the assessment clearly shows is that the weather plays a decisive role in determining peoples choice of activity, thus impacting on visitor
numbers at different locations. Furthermore, it highlights the complexity of factors facing those concerned with the leisure and tourism in the
UK. Whilst the uncertainty regarding the level of climatic changes we are likely to witness can provide difficulty when planning for the future,
the nature of the activity a business offers can be equally as influential in determining the extent by which they will be impacted by climate
change. Consequently, whilst it is important that the leisure and tourism sector as a whole evaluates the potential impacts of climate change
and thus implements adaptation measures, it is equally as important for each individual business owner to assess the impacts of a changing
climate depending on the specific activity(s) they have to offer.

Mitigation and Sustainability

Climate change and environmental issues are now on the political agenda, with an increasing focus on climate change throughout
government. As with all other industries, the leisure and tourism industry has a moral duty to substantially reduce greenhouse gas
emissions as we look to mitigate the impacts of climate change. A growing interest in sustainable and ethical choices amongst the
public, in conjunction with rising fuel costs and the current economic situation, is putting pressure on industry chiefs and business
owners to reduce their carbon footprint whilst simultaneously reducing costs for consumers. For example, business owners will need
to reduce their carbon footprint by undertaking actions such as increasing the % of materials they recycle, improving the energy
efficiency of buildings and caravans, looking at implementing renewable energy schemes where appropriate and increasing their
water usage efficiencies. As well as helping Wales reach its target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 3% per annum from 2011
in areas of devolved competence, such actions would save money, which, if were honest, is the number one priority of all business
owners!

So, what are the risks?

Whilst climate change may bring about new opportunities in the leisure and tourism industry, there will also be negative impacts associated
with climate change. Although the extent of future climatic changes depends heavily on mitigation measures undertaken now, we are already
experiencing and are committed to certain changes due to historic greenhouse gas emissions, a significant amount of which is directly
associated with tourism i.e. aviation emissions (world visitor economy contributed an estimated 4.9% of GHG emissions in 2005).
Consequently, it becomes difficult to predict the extent of the hurdles we will encounter over the coming decades. However, examples of the
challenges we are likely to face include:

 Businesses located in isolated locations are vulnerable to being cut-off during extreme bad weather events as a result of flooding or
due to damage to essential infrastructure i.e. road, power lines or telecommunication lines. Whilst many may chose to visit Snowdonia
due to the relative isolation it has to offer, these days the vast majority expect internet access, mobile phone reception and road
access to be a basic requirement when choosing a holiday destination;
Higher visitor numbers will mean additional pressures on essential infrastructure such as roads, public rights of way and water
resources. This will increase the demand on National Parks, local Authorities, surgeries and hospitals, the emergency services and
water companies to provide expected services, and will present new challenges which the Welsh Government will need to strategically
address;
Increased demand for second homes or development associated with the tourism industry will have detrimental effects on local
communities and the Welsh language. With the 2011 census already showing that Gwynedd has the highest proportion of second
homes in the UK (64 of every 1,000 homes compared to the national average of 3 per 1,000), social issues arising from the topic are
already prominent amongst Snowdonias communities and have been for some decades now;
Increased risk of wild-fires due to larger visitor numbers. In conjunction with
hotter, drier summers, the number of people camping in the open countryside
is likely to increase, thus the risk of wild-fires become enhanced. As well as
posing a threat to human health and safety, such events can have devastating
impacts on wildlife and habitats, local businesses, essential infrastructure such
as power and telecommunication lines as well as public services such as a the
fire service. It has been suggested that by 2080s, wild-fires could represent as
many as 50% of all fires within National Parks, a 30-fold increase on current
rates.
Holiday accommodation providers located in coastal areas or near to large

rivers may be unable to obtain adequate insurance cover as the flood-risk in

such area increases. Even if they are able to get insurance, the likelihood is that costs will increase, putting additional financial burden
on business owners. Whilst there is a level of uncertainty regarding the topic, coastal areas of Snowdonia could suffer as a result of
sea-level rises over the coming decades. This could result in the destruction or loss of beaches, marinas, buildings or tourist attractions,
as well as important habitats and recreational areas. Flood-maps for Wales can be viewed at the Climate Change Wales website.

Summary
Leisure and tourism plays a vital role in the economy and communities of Snowdonia, attracting millions of visitors to the National Park
annually. Unlike many sectors, leisure and tourism may benefit from the predicted warmer, drier summers and milder winter conditions
provided adequate planning is undertaken.
However, climate change will also bring with it challenges and threats, which could come at a large cost both economically and socially. It
is therefore essential that those involved in the industry work closely with associated organisations and governmental bodies in ensuring
the sector is adequately prepared to adapt to these changes. Provided this is done, we could see the leisure and tourism industry grow
significantly within Snowdonia over the coming decades.
Appendix A summaries both the positive and negative impacts of climate change on the leisure and tourism industry in Snowdonia.

Bibliography
ADAS UK (2010). The Impact of Climate Change on the Welsh Visitor Economy. Welsh Government. Cardiff.

DEFRA (2012). A Climate Change Risk Assessment for Wales. UK Government, London.
Tourism Partnership North Wales. (2010). Tourism Strategy North Wales 2010-2015. Welsh Government. Cardiff.

Appendix A
Positive

Negative

Increased air fares may encourage domestic tourism

Tourists, especially day/weekend visitors, maybe encouraged to visit places with

good public transport links as a result of higher fuel prices, putting areas of rural
Snowdonia at a disadvantage

Warmer, drier summers and milder winters will make Wales a more attractive
holiday destination to both domestic and foreign tourists

Higher fuel prices may discourage day visitors from the north-west of England and
the Midlands from visiting Snowdonia

There will be an increase the number of days favourable for peak tourist activities
such as mountain biking and hiking within Snowdonia by the 2050s as a result of
warmer, drier summers

Wetter winters may reduce out of season visitor numbers, particularly those who
visit the area specifically to undertake outdoor activities

Beach holiday destinations, such as Barmouth and Harlech, may benefit as a result
of higher temperatures

Some summer days could become too hot for outdoor activities by the end of the
century, deterring traditional outdoor recreationists from visiting

There may be increased marketing opportunities for the Welsh tourism industry as
the appeal of traditional Mediterranean resorts decline as the climate becomes too
hot. Whilst this may primarily be domestic tourists, southern European residents
may also shift their holiday preference northwards in search of a more comfortable
climate

Rising sea-level could also have an impact on the coast and beaches to the
detriment of business owners and holiday accommodation