HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

09 September, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.424
94.910
1.128
1.333
102.030
66.756

Prev.
Close
66.368
94.831
1.127
1.329
101.74
66.591

Chg.

% Chg.

0.056
0.079
0.001
0.004
0.290
0.165

0.08%
0.08%
0.06%
0.26%
0.29%
0.25%

GLOBAL INDICES
Close
SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8947.5
8952.5
29045.3
24018.2
16925.4
3094.8
2181.3
18479.9
5259.5
6858.7
4542.2
10675.3

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Prev.
Close
8976.5
8918.0
28926.4
23919.3
16958.8
3096.0
2186.2
18526.1
5283.9
6846.6
4557.7
10753.0

Chg.

% Chg.

-29
35
119
99
-33
-1
-5
-46
-24
12
-15
-78

-0.32%
0.39%
0.41%
0.41%
-0.20%
-0.04%
-0.22%
-0.25%
-0.46%
0.18%
-0.34%
-0.72%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

Segment

8-Sep-16

7-Sep-16

Equity

1453.00

1393.38

Debt

1513.99

489.98

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Rupee Breaks 6 Day Rally, Expecting Weak Start For The Day
The rupee retreated marginally to end at 66.42 against the US
dollar, ending a 6 day winning streak due to stronger dollar demand
from oil importers and weaker domestic equity market. Rupee
opened substantially lower at 66.45 against Wednesday's close of
66.37 and remained confined in a narrow trading band of 66.39 and
66.49 throughout the day amid lack of market moving factors
before settling at 66.42, revealing a small loss of 5 paise, or 0.07%.
The one month forward USDINR is quoting at 66.80 from yesterdays
66.63 suggesting higher opening at domestic bourses. However,
weakness in dollar could restrict the gain in pair.
Technically, Spot USDINR is near death cross over level on daily
chart, considered as first sign of long term bearish trend. Near term
support for the pair is placed near 66.05 and resistance at 66.80
with the overall bias remains bearish one should opt for sell on rally.
Dollar Weakens After ECB Left Interest Rate Unchanged
The dollar lowers from its overnight highs in early Asian trade on
Friday, on track for weekly losses in a week marked by continuing
uncertainty about U.S. monetary policy, while the euro firmed after
the European Central Bank stood pat. The dollar touched its session
highs on Thursday after higher spot oil prices raised U.S. inflation
expectations. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a
basket of six major rival currencies, was down 0.1% at 94.920,
poised to slip 1% for the week. On Thursday, it plumbed a two-week
low of 94.465.
The euro rose 0.1% in early Asian trade to $1.1265, up 1% for the
week and moving back toward a two-week high of $1.1328 hit
overnight, after the ECB left interest rates unchanged. ECB kept the
door open to more stimulus but gave no explicit hints about its next
move, and ECB head Mario Draghi said that further expanding its
asset-purchase program had not even come up for discussion. The
ECB Staff raised the growth forecast for this year to 1.7%, from
1.6%. For 2017, the bank slashed growth outlook to 1.6% from
September estimate of 1.7%. Draghi left its 2016 inflation forecast
unchanged at 0.2%. For 2017, the bank cut its forecasts for inflation
to 1.2% from previous projection of 1.3%.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR SEPT. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms intact on daily chart.

The pair is having resistance at 66.80 and 67.05, the down gap of 6th September. While find support at 66.15, the bottom of 20th
April.

Momentum Oscillators are weakening on daily scale, suggesting downtrend for the pair.

Near term support has been seen at 66.15 , while resistance near term resistance is at 67.05.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Near Month Fut.

Last

Pivot

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

66.59

66.62

66.41

66.49

66.54

66.67

66.75

66.80

EURINR

75.22

75.15

74.76

74.87

75.04

75.32

75.43

75.61

GBPINR

89.00

88.95

88.61

88.71

88.85

89.10

89.19

89.34

JPYINR

65.50

65.55

65.19

65.32

65.41

65.64

65.78

65.87

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.21

66.81

67.24

66.33

68.79

64.70

66.62

66.88

67.05

67.00

67.04

EURINR

75.32

74.54

76.15

73.97

77.49

70.24

74.69

75.09

74.74

75.17

74.38

GBPINR

88.91

87.61

89.54

86.16

103.52

86.16

88.79

88.05

88.16

92.34

94.61

JPYINR

65.81

64.45

67.08

63.95

68.11

53.32

64.89

65.89

65.32

63.86

61.00

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg. in OI

Volume

Chg. In
Volume

SPOT USDINR

66.47

66.49

66.39

66.42

0.06

--

--

--

--

USDINR SEP FUT.

66.67

66.70

66.57

66.59

0.02

2469758

7559

660428

-273809

SPOT EURINR

74.76

75.05

74.72

74.97

0.31

--

--

--

--

EURINR SEP FUT.

75.00

75.26

74.98

75.22

0.28

62049

-5187

47416

-3302

SPOT GBPINR

88.60

88.83

88.58

88.76

-0.04

--

--

--

--

GBPINR SEP FUT.

89.00

89.04

88.80

89.00

-0.04

42462

-1934

45480

-23461

SPOT JPYINR

65.25

65.53

65.24

65.37

0.01

--

--

--

--

JPYINR SEP FUT.

65.54

65.69

65.46

65.50

-0.04

31272

-240

21210

-25869

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

Country

Event

Period

09/08/2016 17:15

EC

ECB Main Refinancing Rate

8-Sep

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

09/08/2016 17:15

EC

ECB Deposit Facility Rate

8-Sep

-0.40%

-0.40%

-0.40%

09/08/2016 17:15

EC

ECB Marginal Lending Facility

8-Sep

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

09/08/2016 17:15

EC

ECB Asset Purchase Target

Sep

EU80b

EU80b

EU80b

09/08/2016 18:00

EC

ECB President Draghi Press Conference

09/08/2016 18:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims

265k

259k

263k

09/08/2016 18:00

US

Continuing Claims

2151k

2144k

2159k

09/09/2016 07:00

CH

CPI YoY

Aug

1.70%

1.30%

1.80%

09/09/2016 07:00

CH

PPI YoY

Aug

-0.90%

-0.80%

-1.70%

3-Sep
27-Aug

Survey

Actual

Prior

ECO. DATA TODAY

Date Time

Country

Event

09/09/2016 14:00

UK

Trade Balance

Jul

-4200

-5084

09/09/2016 14:00

UK

Construction Output SA MoM

Jul

-0.50%

-0.90%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Period

Survey

Prior

Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)

Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]