HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

01 September, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Prev.
Close
67.031
96.082
1.114
1.314
103.3
67.236

Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.964
95.974
1.116
1.314
103.230
67.245

Chg.

% Chg.

-0.068
-0.108
0.002
0.000
-0.070
0.009

-0.10%
-0.11%
0.14%
0.03%
-0.07%
0.01%

GLOBAL INDICES
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SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8842.5
8786.2
28452.2
23042.2
16908.5
3081.2
2171.0
18400.9
5213.2
6781.5
4438.2
10592.7

8844.5
8744.4
28343.0
22976.9
16887.4
3085.5
2176.1
18454.3
5223.0
6820.8
4457.5
10657.6

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Chg.

% Chg.

-2
42
109
65
21
-4
-5
-53
-10
-39
-19
-65

-0.02%
0.48%
0.39%
0.28%
0.13%
-0.14%
-0.24%
-0.29%
-0.19%
-0.58%
-0.43%
-0.61%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

Segment

31-Aug-16

30-Aug-16

Equity

388.95

557.51

Debt

-106.69

-46.21

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

GREENBACK EDGES LOWER IN VALUE VERSUS RUPEE

The Indian rupee on Wednesday erased all the losses against the US
dollar, after local equity markets gained for the third day ahead of
the key data. The rupee firmed second straight day, up by 6 paise
to close at 66.96 against the greenback due to sustained dollar
selling from exporters amid weak overseas tone.
Also, robust
foreign capital inflows into upbeat domestic equity markets helped
the rupee to gain.
Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 7.1% in the first quarter,
reaffirming India's position as the world's fastest-growing major
economy, but sharply lower than 7.9% in the January-March period,
data released by the statistics office showed. The good news was
high manufacturing growth of 9.1% in the first quarter, suggesting
the 'Make in India' initiative was making headway. This is the fourth
successive quarter of 9% -plus manufacturing growth

Gross value added (GVA), which is adjusted for subsidies and taxes
to arrive at GDP, grew at an improved 7.3%, almost matching 7.4%
in the previous quarter.
The April-July fiscal deficit was at 73.7% of Budget estimates, only
slightly higher than 69.3% at the same time last year.
Technically, USDINR Sept. future is having resistance at 67.65 and
support at 67.15. The bias for the pair remains negative till it
crosses resistance level.
Dollar Loses Momentum ahead of Job Data
The dollar fluctuate in narrow range against the yen and euro on
Thursday, its advance put on hold ahead of the closely-watched U.S.
non-farm jobs report on Friday which is expected to shape the
market's near-term interest rate expectations. The dollar index was
steady at 96.007 after pulling back overnight from a three-week
peak of 96.255.
U.S. private sector employment added 177,000 jobs from July to
August, above the market consensus of 175,000, according to the
August ADP National Employment Report. The ADP figure is watched
closely as a pre-indicator for the non-farm payrolls report due
Friday.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USDINR SEPT. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

The pair is hovering around 20 Days SMA.

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms intact on daily chart with immediate resistance of recent top placed at 67.65.

Momentum Oscillators hovering near break even line, signaling consolidation.

Recent bottom of 67.17 and 67.05 are supports, while resistance near term resistance is at 67.65.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Sept Month

Last

Pivot

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

67.28

67.32

67.04

67.15

67.21

67.38

67.48

67.55

EURINR

74.99

75.06

74.60

74.78

74.88

75.17

75.35

75.45

GBPINR

88.42

88.36

87.72

87.92

88.17

88.61

88.81

89.06

JPYINR

65.17

65.26

64.67

64.90

65.03

65.39

65.62

65.75

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.24

66.98

67.43

66.67

68.79

64.70

67.06

66.95

67.15

67.00

67.02

EURINR

76.15

75.54

76.15

73.63

77.49

70.24

75.18

75.06

74.88

75.22

74.31

GBPINR

88.92

87.49

89.54

86.16

103.52

86.16

88.14

87.62

88.63

92.70

94.95

JPYINR

67.08

66.53

67.08

62.64

68.11

53.32

65.95

66.16

65.44

63.62

60.68

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg. in OI

Volume

Chg. In
Volume

SPOT USDINR

67.09

67.09

66.96

66.96

-0.07

--

--

--

--

USDINR Sept. FUT.

67.42

67.42

67.25

67.26

-0.09

1834626

34967

774582

72466

SPOT EURINR

74.84

74.88

74.54

74.58

-0.27

--

--

--

--

EURINR Sept. FUT.

75.23

75.24

74.96

74.96

-0.30

71195

-424

43339

14231

SPOT GBPINR

87.97

88.14

87.65

87.98

0.19

--

--

--

--

GBPINR Sept. FUT.

88.43

88.56

88.11

88.40

0.16

36719

817

71575

10879

SPOT JPYINR

65.10

65.14

64.84

64.92

-0.60

--

--

--

--

JPYINR Sept. FUT.

65.45

65.48

65.12

65.15

-0.67

39714

-5657

35728

5378

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

Country

Event

Period

Survey

Actual

Prior

08/31/2016 11:30

UK

Nationwide House PX MoM

Aug

-0.2%

0.6%

0.5%

08/31/2016 14:30

EC

Unemployment Rate

Jul

10.0%

10.1%

10.1%

08/31/2016 14:30

EC

CPI YoY

Aug

0.3%

0.2%

0.2%

08/31/2016 14:30

EC

Core CPI YoY

Aug

0.9%

0.8%

0.9%

08/31/2016 16:30

US

MBA Mortgage Applications

Aug 26

--

2.8%

-2.1%

08/31/2016 17:30

IN

Fiscal Deficit INR Crore

Jul

--

67164

97337

08/31/2016 17:30

IN

GDP YoY

2Q

7.6%

7.1%

7.9%

08/31/2016 17:30

IN

GVA YoY

2Q

7.3%

7.3%

7.4%

08/31/2016 17:45

US

ADP Employment Change

Aug

175k

177k

194k

08/31/2016 19:15

US

Chicago Purchasing Manager

Aug

54.0

51.5

55.8

08/31/2016 19:30

US

Pending Home Sales MoM

Jul

0.7%

1.3%

0.2%

09/01/2016 06:00

JN

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg

--

49.5

49.6

09/01/2016 06:30

CH

Manufacturing PMI

Aug

49.8

50.4

49.9

09/01/2016 07:15

CH

Caixin China PMI Mfg

Aug

50.1

50.0

50.6

Aug F

ECO. DATA TODAY

Date Time

Country

Event

Period

Prior

09/01/2016 10:30

IN

Nikkei India PMI Mfg

09/01/2016 13:30

EC

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

09/01/2016 14:00

UK

Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA

Aug

49

48.2

09/01/2016 17:00

US

Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Aug

--

-57.10%

09/01/2016 18:00

US

Nonfarm Productivity

2Q F

-0.60%

-0.50%

09/01/2016 18:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims

27-Aug

265k

261k

09/01/2016 18:00

US

Continuing Claims

20-Aug

2143k

2145k

09/01/2016 19:15

US

Markit US Manufacturing PMI

52.1

52.1

09/01/2016 19:30

US

ISM Manufacturing

52

52.6

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Aug

Survey

Aug F

Aug F

Aug

--

51.8

51.8

51.8

Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)

Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]