HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

Aug 5, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.918
95.722
1.114
1.313
101.080
67.069

Prev.
Close
66.993
95.758
1.113
1.311
101.220
67.069

Chg.
-0.075
-0.036
0.000
0.002
-0.140
0.000

% Chg.
-0.11%
-0.04%
0.04%
0.19%
-0.14%
0.00%

GLOBAL INDICES
Prev.
Close

Close

SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8647.0
8551.1
27714.4
22114.0
16300.8
2977.9
2164.3
18352.1
5166.2
6740.2
4345.6
10227.9

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Chg.

8604.0
8544.9
27697.5
21832.2
16254.9
2982.4
2163.8
18355.0
5159.7
6634.4
4321.1
10170.2

43
6
17
282
46
-5
0
-3
7
106
25
58

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

Segment

4-Aug-16

3-Aug-16

EQUITY

560

37.02

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

% Chg.
0.50%
0.07%
0.06%
1.29%
0.28%
-0.15%
0.02%
-0.02%
0.13%
1.59%
0.57%
0.57%

Rupee recovers 8 paise to end at 66.91 against US dollar

The rupee yesterday recovered by 8 paise to close at 66.91 a dollar on
foreign capital inflows and selling of the US currency by banks and
exporters. Fresh bout of dollar selling by exporters and persistent
foreign capital inflows largely aided the recovery despite high volatility
in domestic equities
The passage of the Constitution Amendment bill on GST by the Rajya
Sabha boosted hopes of more capital flows. Meanwhile, FPIs continued
to invest in stocks with net inflows of around Rs 560 crore.
Unveiling the biggest tax reform since Independence, the Rajya Sabha
last night approved the GST bill to replace a raft of different state and
local taxes with a single unified value added tax system to turn the
country into world's biggest single market and boost growth in Asia's
third-largest economy.
The US dollar index, which hit a more than four-month high on
Wednesday, closed up by 0.20% at 95.72.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee bounced back sharply against the
pound sterling to finish at 87.94 as compared to 89.40 and rebounded
against the euro to end at 74.42 from 75.02 yesterday
GBP/USD plunges after BOE rate cut
GBP/USD fell sharply on Thursday, plunging to one-week lows, after
the Bank of England approved its first interest rate cut in seven
years and approved a bevy of easing measures in order to help prop
up the economy in the wake of June's historic Brexit decision.
On Thursday morning, the Bank of England as expected lowered its
benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a record-low of 0.25%,
representing its first rate cut since the Great Recession. At the same
time, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
increased its near-term inflation outlook on Thursday, due primarily to
the recent depreciation of the Pound Sterling.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR Aug Future Daily Chart
USDINR
SPOTDAILY
DAILYCHART
CHARTUSDINR
USDINR SPOT

SPOT DAILY CHART

200DMA and
Trend line Support Violated

Technical Observations

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Intact

Pullback from the recent low was observed, which has not confirmed the bullish trend reversal as of yet

Pair has claimed a level above its 200 DMA 66.85.

Primary trend of the pair is bearish.

Recent bottom of 66.69 is strong support, while resistance for the same is placed at 67.15

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Aug Month

Last

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

67.17

66.89

66.97

67.07

67.25

67.33

67.43

EURINR

74.92

73.85

74.32

74.62

75.40

75.87

76.17

GBPINR

89.55

89.24

89.35

89.45

89.66

89.77

89.87

JPYINR

66.26

66.08

66.17

66.21

66.34

66.43

66.47

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.27

67.05

68.22

66.70

68.79

63.72

66.88

67.09

67.20

66.97

66.85

EURINR

74.48

73.81

75.91

73.63

77.49

69.42

74.65

74.32

74.98

75.15

74.13

GBPINR

89.19

87.81

94.75

86.35

105.28

86.35

88.65

88.48

92.23

94.06

96.19

JPYINR

63.76

62.64

68.11

62.64

68.11

51.06

65.57

64.42

64.13

62.42

59.52

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Vol

Vol Chg

Open
Interest

Chg.

-0.09

1701553

29031

192164

-887417.00

74.61

-0.40

--

--

--

--

74.80

74.92

-0.47

70542

-24

20928

-23419.00

89.34

89.14

89.22

-0.20

--

--

--

--

89.47

89.67

89.46

89.55

-0.26

35035

-1320

7794

-86020.00

SPOT JPYINR

66.29

66.32

66.06

66.08

-0.02

--

--

--

--

JPYINR Aug FUT.

66.38

66.38

66.25

66.26

-0.16

59433

1520

8329

-65862.00

Currency

Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

66.85

66.99

66.85

66.94

-0.06

USDINR Aug FUT.

67.09

67.24

67.06

67.17

SPOT EURINR

74.51

74.68

74.50

EURINR Aug FUT.

75.57

75.57

SPOT GBPINR

89.14

GBPINR Aug FUT.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

08/04/2016 16:30
08/04/2016 16:30
08/04/2016 18:00
08/04/2016 18:00

Country

UK
UK
US
US

Event

Bank of England Bank Rate

BOE Asset Purchase Target
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims

Period

Survey

Actual

Prior

4-Aug
Aug
30-Jul
23-Jul

0.25%
375b
265k
2130k

0.25%
435b
269k
2138k

0.50%
375b
266k
2139k

ECO. DATA TODAY

Date Time

08/05/2016 18:00
08/05/2016 18:00
08/05/2016 18:00
08/05/2016 18:00

Country

US
US
US
US

Event

Trade Balance
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Change in Manufact. Payrolls
Unemployment Rate

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Period

Jun
Jul
Jul
Jul

Survey

Prior

-$43.0b -$41.1b
180k
287k
4k
14k
4.80% 4.90%

Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)

Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
Disclaimer:
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correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not
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This report has been prepared by the PCG team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may
be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, Retail) of HDFC Securities Ltd.
"HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]