Global Economic Research June 4, 2010

Highlights Index
2 Forecasts
The Week — Financial markets lost ground as the work
week drew to a close, highlighted by stock prices being 3 The Week
pulled down around the world. U.S. Treasury yields and the
4 Canada
'greenback' have been the primary beneficiaries from the
heightened aversion to risk. What has caused this latest 5 United States
bout of investor angst? Continuing sovereign debt concerns
in Europe, lacklustre job gains in the United States, 6 Industry & Commodity
uncertainties over the strength of emerging economies, and
7 Market Metrics / Fiscal Policy
increasing geopolitical risks, to name a few. Canadian
markets get dragged down too despite a much better 8 Economic Tables
economic and fiscal performance. For Scotia Economics'
latest views on the global outlook, please link to our June 9 Financial Tables
2010 Global Forecast Update report at http://
www.scotiacapital.com/English/bns_econ/forecast.pdf
Canada — Canada surges into 2010.
United States — A sharply disappointing finish to the week,
as private sector hiring stalls in May.
Industry — Auto industry profitability restored.
New Releases
Industry Trends: Industrial Performance (June 2010)

Auto News Flash (06/02)

Global Forecast Update (06/01)

Foreign Exchange Outlook (June 2010)

Global Auto Report (05/31)

Scotia Economics
Scotia Plaza 40 King Street West, 63rd Floor
Toronto, Ontario Canada M5H 1H1
Tel: (416) 866-6253 Fax: (416) 866-2829
Email: scotia_economics@scotiacapital.com
This Report is prepared by Scotia Economics as a resource for the
clients of Scotiabank and Scotia Capital. While the information is from
sources believed reliable, neither the information nor the forecast shall
be taken as a representation for which The Bank of Nova Scotia or
Scotia Capital Inc. or any of their employees incur any responsibility.

Weekly Trends is available on: www.scotiabank.com, Bloomberg at SCOE and Reuters at SM1C
 Global Economic Research June 4, 2010

Forecasts
Economic Performance (annual % change unless otherwise indicated)
2000-08 2009 2010f 2011f 2000-08 2009 2010f 2011f
Canada United States
Real GDP 2.6 -2.5 3.6 2.7 2.4 -2.4 3.4 2.7
Consumer Prices 2.3 0.3 1.9 2.3 2.9 -0.3 2.1 2.0
Pre-tax Profits 7.8 -32.3 27.5 14.0 5.3 -3.8 25.0 13.0
Federal Budget Balance ($bn) 8.4 -48.0 -43.0 -28.0 -197 -1413 -1380 -1220
Current Account Balance ($bn) 20.5 -43.5 -31.3 -29.2 -601 -420 -510 -556
Merchandise Trade Balance ($bn) 58.1 -4.6 6.5 7.5 -655 -517 -642 -710
Motor Vehicle Sales (000s)* 1,605 1,461 1,525 1,570 16.4 10.4 11.5 12.2
Motor Vehicle Production (000s)* 2,590 1,425 2,000 2,200 11.5 5.6 7.4 7.7
Housing Starts (000s)* 207 149 190 175 1.65 0.55 0.68 1.00
Employment 1.9 -1.6 1.3 1.5 0.7 -4.3 -0.3 2.2
Jobs Created (000s)* 301 -272 227 261 0.86 -5.87 -0.37 2.86
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.9 8.3 8.1 7.9 5.1 9.3 9.6 9.0

Mexico Euro zone

Real GDP 2.8 -6.5 4.8 3.5 1.9 -4.1 0.8 1.0
Consumer Prices 5.1 3.6 5.0 4.6 2.2 0.9 1.3 1.7

Latin America (Excl. Mexico) Asia

Real GDP 3.8 -0.3 3.9 3.7 5.2 1.4 5.5 4.8
Consumer Prices 8.1 7.0 7.9 4.5 1.6 0.8 2.0 2.0
*In the United States, millions.

Commodity Prices (US$ annual average)

2000-08 2009 2010f 2011f
Pulp (tonne) 662 720 970 800
Newsprint (tonne) 574 560 600 670
Lumber (mfbm) 286 178 258 265
Copper (lb) 1.72 2.34 3.15 3.20
Zinc (lb) 0.73 0.75 0.93 0.98
Nickel (lb) 7.16 6.50 9.25 9.25
WTI Oil (bbl) 49.93 62 79 80
Nymex Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) 6.15 4.15 4.75 4.75
Wheat (tonne) 223 454 305 290

Financial Markets (end of period, % unless otherwise indicated)

10Q1 10Q2f 10Q3f 10Q4f 11Q1f 11Q2f 11Q3f 11Q4f
CANADA
3-month T-bill 0.30 0.49 1.15 1.55 2.00 2.55 2.85 2.80
5-year Canada 2.90 2.70 2.95 3.30 3.55 3.80 3.75 3.65
10-year Canada 3.57 3.32 3.45 3.85 4.20 4.15 4.10 4.10
UNITED STATES
3-month T-bill (Yield) 0.15 0.15 0.30 0.45 1.00 1.55 2.15 2.40
5-year Treasury 2.54 2.10 2.45 2.90 3.40 3.70 3.65 3.55
10-year Treasury 3.83 3.30 3.55 4.10 4.60 4.50 4.40 4.40
CANADIAN-US SPREADS
3-month T-bill 0.15 0.34 0.85 1.10 1.00 1.00 0.70 0.40
5-year 0.36 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10
10-year -0.26 0.02 -0.10 -0.25 -0.40 -0.35 -0.30 -0.30
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97
Canadian Dollar (CADUSD) 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.03
Yen (USDJPY) 93 91 93 95 97 98 99 100
Euro (EURUSD) 1.35 1.20 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.24 1.26
Sterling (GBPUSD) 1.52 1.44 1.46 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.54 1.55
Mexican Peso (USDMXN) 12.5 12.4 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2

2
Global Economic Research
The Week Past, Present & Prospects
Aron Gampel
(416) 866-6259
aron_gampel@scotiacapital.com
European Woe, U.S. Low, Canadian Mo
Just when you thought Europe’s problems had been contained,
another leak emerges and the contagion spreads.
Last year, Ireland aggressively dealt with its mounting deficits and
rising debt burden by initiating across-the-board fiscal restraint. This
year, the focus of attention has been on Greece’s sovereign debt
problems, followed by increasing concerns over Portugal and Spain.
The rapid deterioration has been reflected in the region’s sharp drop in
equity prices, the rise in market volatility and measures of credit risk,
interbank borrowing costs, and interest rate spreads. In response, the
EU and ECB, along with the IMF, constructed a massive financial
stabilization package designed to provide many of these beleaguered
nations with the flexibility to ward off insolvency and to redress their
budgetary imbalances.
This week, Hungary has become the focus of attention, with the
government revealing that the country’s finances are probably in a
more egregious state than previously thought, even after a bailout
package was implemented during the recession in 2008. The forint has
come under renewed selling pressure alongside the sharp back-up in
local bonds. And even though another large leak has occurred an
ocean away, one of Europe’s largest energy producers has witnessed
its share prices being marked significantly lower after the company
has been unable to cap its underwater leak, leaving it exposed to the
unprecedented environmental damage and escalating economic costs.
Not surprisingly, both European stocks and the euro have turned
sharply lower as well. So far this year, a basket of euro stocks has
dropped by around 15%, though they are still up over 40% from the
low in early 2009. The currency has lost roughly 17% against the U.S.
dollar, establishing a recent low of around €1.20.
With increased risk aversion, and continuing concerns over the
strength of the recovery dominating credit markets globally, the flight
to ‘safety’ is again favouring bonds over stocks. U.S. 10-year
Treasury bond yields have dropped roughly 15 basis points today to
June 4, 2010
around 3.20%, about three-quarters of a percentage
point below the recent high-water mark set in early
April of just under 4%. In addition, the greenback
continues to maintain its edge over most currencies,
even though the United States added an
unexpectedly low number of jobs in May after
netting out Census hires. So far this year, private
sector payrolls have expanded only by just over
500,000 net new positions, retracing only 6% of the
8.4 million jobs lost during the recession.
Canada, at least for the time being, continues to
swim against the global tide of ‘economic’
uncertainty. Output growth in the first three months
of the year posted a better-than-expected 6.1%
annualized gain, about double the U.S. first-quarter
gain, and well above the minimal advances
throughout Europe. Riding the tailwind of stronger
growth and creeping inflationary pressures, the Bank
of Canada became the first G7 nation to raise its
policy rate on June 1st — a tentative 25 basis points
to a still ultra-low level of 0.5% — a decision
quickly validated by another outsized employment
gain, this time 25,000 new jobs in May on the heels
of the blowout 109,000 jobs added in April. But
even with this solid performance, Canadian financial
markets are following the broad trends
internationally — lower stock market valuations
alongside weakening commodity prices, lower
Government of Canada bond yields, and a weaker
loonie.
At a time when global growth is registering
impressive gains in most regions of the world, there
is increasing investor concern that the upswing —
and the strong momentum in corporate profitability
— will be dragged down by a growing number of
issues, many of which are unlikely to be resolved
quickly. Can Europe’s sovereign debt problem be
contained? Is the very slow pace of U.S. job growth
here to stay? Is China’s economic boom beginning
to fade? How will credit fare under the tighter
regulatory environment being contemplated? And
how will heightened geopolitical tensions play out?■
3
Global Economic Research June 4, 2010

Canada Neil Tisdall (416) 866-6252

neil_tisdall@scotiacapital.com

Alex Koustas Review

(416) 866-4212 Employment — Total employment rose by 24,700 in
alex_koustas@scotiacapital.com May, due entirely to 67,300 new full-time jobs. Part-
time employment fell by 42,500, partially due to a 4.3%
m/m decline in Alberta, and a 1.7% m/m decline in
Quebec. The unemployment rate remained unchanged
Canada Surges Into 2010 from April at 8.1% as more Canadians entered the
Canada has put the “V” back into recovery, with Q1 GDP growth labour force, but has been trending lower since the
middle of 2009. Over the last 10 years, the
outpacing the previous quarter’s strong performance. March’s 0.6 unemployment rate has averaged around 7%, but with
m/m output gain pushed Q1 growth to an annualized 6.1%, with the rising labour force participation, our forecast is for the
majority of industries making positive strides since the turn of the unemployment rate to average 8.1% in 2010, and 7.9%
year. in 2011. May marks the start of student summer
employment, and there were 54,000 new student jobs
GDP Consumption was the largest contributor to to start the 2010 summer, an increase of 3.1% from
4 (Y/Y % CHANGE) GDP growth, up 4.1% on an annualized May 2009. This number will increase when high
schools close for the summer, adding to the current
basis in Q1, as stimulative monetary policy
2 data that only includes university and college students.
CANADA and improved consumer confidence fuelled
the retail and real estate markets. Inventory UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
0 9.0 (%)
restocking also played a significant role,
showing its first positive result since 2008 8.5
-2
— an annualized $8.2 billion — as retailers 8.0

expanded stocks to keep pace with 7.5 AVERAGE

-4
TOTAL accelerating consumer demand. Surveys 7.0
2000-PRESENT
OECD
indicate that excess capacity still remains a
-6 6.5
08 09 10
key issue for many manufacturers. As such,
6.0
a more pronounced recovery in business
investment will likely not manifest itself until later in the year and into 5.5

2011 after further increases in consumer demand. 5.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Even more impressive is the scope of the recovery. The five-month
average of our GDP diffusion index currently stands at a healthy Preview
71.7%, indicating that solid performance across most industries —
Housing Starts (06/08)
particularly the private sector — will help to overcome a winding
down in stimulus measures. Strong employment numbers also lend Merchandise Trade Balance (06/10)

further credence to the sustainability of the recovery. Employment has
recovered at a brisker pace than following past recessions, trailing the
turnaround in GDP by only one quarter, as opposed to a typical two to
three quarter lag.
Overall, the Canadian economy now sees itself on a strong, and
sustainable, path of recovery with continued, albeit more moderate,
growth expected through the remainder of the year. Canada’s
performance has outpaced the United States and the rest of the G8 so
far, leading the Bank of Canada to precede most of its peers with a
New Housing Price Index (06/10)
Capacity Utilization (06/11)
moderate increase in interest rates — spelling the
beginning of a measured tightening cycle. Scotia
Economics forecasts Canadian GDP growth to
average 3.6% in 2010, well above the OECD
average. ■

4
Global Economic Research
United States
Adrienne Warren
(416) 866-4315
adrienne_warren@scotiacapital.com
Private Sector Hiring Disappoints
The keenly anticipated U.S. payroll report for May was an
overwhelming disappointment. While total employment was up
430,000 last month, fully 411,000 of these jobs were temporary
positions related to census hiring. Private sector payrolls edged up by
only 41,000. Moreover, revisions lowered the previously reported
payroll gains of the prior two months by a total of 22,000.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE The unemployment rate edged down to 9.7%
12
(%) in May, but mainly because fewer Americans
10 UNITED looked for work last month. This drop in
STATES
labour force participation is hardly indicative
8 CANADA*
of improving confidence, and does note bode
6 well for a sharper consumer and housing
recovery in the months ahead. Modest hiring
4
increases in manufacturing, temporary help
2 and mining were largely offset by declines in
*ADJUSTED TO U.S. CONCEPTS construction. Employment in most other
0 of total construction in the United States, so while a
industries was little changed.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
The household employment survey, which
includes self-employed among other
differences, reported an employment decline of 35,000, albeit after
strong gains over the prior four months. Since bottoming in
December, the U.S. economy has managed to recoup just 6% of the
staggering 8½ million private sector jobs lost in 2008-2009.
On a more positive note, most leading U.S. labour market indicators,
including temporary service hiring, involuntary part-time work and
average weekly hours, all continued to show modest improvement in
May. Hiring intentions remain quite weak, but overall labour market
conditions have nonetheless begun to turn the corner.
The downbeat U.S. employment report is in marked contrast to the
upbeat Canadian labour market picture for May. Indeed, Canada has
already recouped roughly three-quarters of its much more modest
recessionary job losses. On a comparable methodological basis to the
U.S. employment survey, we estimate that Canada’s unemployment rate
was only 7.1% in May. This 2.6 percentage point gap is close to the
June 4, 2010
Neil Tisdall (416) 866-6252
neil_tisdall@scotiacapital.com
Review
ISM Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing — The
ISM’s manufacturing index slipped to 59.7 in May, but
remains in expansionary territory, while the non-
manufacturing index was unchanged at 55.4 for the
third consecutive month. Encouragingly, the
employment subcomponent of both indices showed
modest improvement, to 59.8 (manufacturing) and 50.4
(non-manufacturing), consistent with moderate hiring
increases in the coming months.
Construction Spending — Like last month’s housing
sales and starts releases, April’s construction spending
figures benefitted from the April 30th expiry of the home
buyer’s tax credit. Total construction spending was up
2.7% m/m, the largest monthly gain since August 2000,
while residential construction increased 2.9% m/m, the
first gain since October 2009. Both these results were
above consensus expectations of a flat month, but we
can expect a cooling down in residential construction in
the months ahead as the temporary tax credit likely
brought forward some activity to the early part of the
year. Residential construction makes up about a third
slowdown in this sector would have an effect on total
construction, it would not dominate the industry.
Preview
Consumer Credit (06/07)
Wholesale Trade (06/09)
Beige Book (06/09)
Trade Balance (06/10)
Treasury Statement (06/10)
Retail Sales (06/11)
Consumer Sentiment (06/11)
Business Inventories (06/11)
widest ever recorded (only April 2010 was greater at
2.8 percentage points). On the other hand, Canada
cannot be expected to sustain such a wide gap for an
extended period given the close economic integration
between the two neighbouring countries. ■
5
Global Economic Research
Industry & Commodity
Carlos Gomes
(416) 866-4735
carlos_gomes@scotiacapital.com
Global Auto Industry Returns To Profitability
The global auto industry has returned to profitability, with the five
largest auto manufacturers posting earnings of US$5.5 billion in the
first quarter of 2010. The improvement represents a sharp turnaround
from annual losses averaging in excess of US$22 billion from 2007
through 2009. Profitability improved in every region last quarter,
especially in North America, with the five largest automakers returning
to profitability in the region. However, despite the turnaround in North
America, Asia remains not only the auto market with the greatest
potential, but is already the most profitable market in the world.
The global economy continued to gain
AUTO INDUSTRY PROFITABILITY
30 unit mns 36
$ bns momentum through the first quarter of
20 SALES (RHS) 35 2010, with growth picking up to roughly
10 34 4% y/y — the fastest pace in two years.
0 33
This acceleration lifted global car sales
25% above a year earlier, to a level only
-10 32
marginally lower than in early 2008.
-20 31 However, volumes still remain nearly 5%
-30 30 below the industry peak set in mid-2007. In
-40 NET INCOME 29 contrast, operating margins have climbed to
(LHS) peak levels prevailing in 2004, as virtually
-50 28
00 02 04 06 08 10 every automaker restructured their
operations during the recent downturn,
significantly reducing their cost structure and breakeven point.
Profitability per vehicle in North America jumped to more than
US$1,500 in early 2010, compared with losses through September of
last year, and will likely improve further in coming years as volumes
expand. For example, light vehicle purchases in Canada, the United
States and Mexico totalled an annualized 13.3 million in the opening
months of 2010, and are expected to climb to 13.9 million for the full
year, before rising to 14.6 in 2011.
Despite higher incentive spending and a one-time charge of nearly
US$2 billion associated with its global recalls, Toyota’s worldwide
operations still reported an operating profit of US$1.1 billion in the
opening months of 2010. Emerging Asia accounts for most of the
June 4, 2010
Strong U.S. Vehicle Sales, But Canadian
Volumes Disappoint
Canadian passenger vehicle sales weakened to less
than an annualized 1.50 million units in May — the
lowest level since January, and well below the 1.56
million unit average of the previous four months. Lower
car sales accounted for much of the weakness, with
volumes falling 10% below a year earlier — the first
double-digit drop since last summer. The decline was
broad-based, with five automakers posting year-over-
year falloffs of more than 20%.
In contrast, truck sales continued to power ahead, as
Canadians are increasingly shifting to crossover utility
vehicles (CUVs) and pickup trucks. In particular,
Chrysler — which relies on trucks for more than 80% of
its sales in Canada — reported an a 52% y/y increase
in truck sales. This solid performance helped lift the
overall market for the Detroit Three above 47% for the
first time since January 2009.
U.S. purchases exceeded expectations last month,
climbing to an annualized 11.6 million units, up from
11.2 million in April and nearly approaching the
incentive-induced 11.8 million posted in March.
As in Canada, light trucks led the way, with purchases
advancing 23% y/y to an annualized 6.1 million units —
the highest level since September 2008, prior to the
sharp downturn in the global economy. Among the
major automakers, truck volumes were strongest at
Ford, with sales of the popular F-series pickup truck
surging 52% y/y to the highest monthly total since
March 2008. The stronger-than-expected sales
performance prompted Ford to boost its second-quarter
North American assemblies an additional 2.5%.
strength, with the region totalling nearly 75% of the
company’s overall earnings.
In fact, Asia (excluding Japan) is already the most
profitable region for the entire industry. For
example, the five largest automakers reported a first-
quarter operating profit of more than US$2.3 billion
in emerging Asia — roughly 40% of their overall
total. This is particularly surprising, as the average
car price in countries such as China and India
averages less than US$12,000 compared with
US$24,000 in North America and about US$20,000
in Europe. ■
6
 Global Economic Research June 4, 2010

Market Metrics Markets — The S&P 500 is poised to close lower this
week due to a disappointing U.S. employment report
and continued uncertainty in Europe. Not helping the
Neil Tisdall Mary Webb uncertainty were comments made by a high-ranking
Hungarian official implying that Hungary could soon
(416) 866-6252 (416) 866-4202
suffer a crisis similar to Greece. The euro continued its
neil_tisdall@scotiacapital.com mary_webb@scotiacapital.com slide this week, dropping to around 1.20 against the
U.S. dollar on Friday.

EURO On Tuesday, Canada raised its overnight interest rate

CANADIAN DOLLAR 1.65
1.10 (EURUSD) 25 bps to 0.50%, joining Australia, India and Brazil
(CADUSD)
1.60 which have hiked their own central bank rates. Canada
1.05 is the first G8 country to raise rates, and this represents
1.55
1.50 the first hike in BoC rates since the summer of 2007.
1.00
Accompanying the rate increase was a balanced
1.45
0.95 message from the BoC indicating that due to global
1.40
economic uncertainty any further rate hikes will be
0.90 1.35 “weighed carefully against domestic and global
0.85 1.30 economic developments”.
1.25
0.80
The Canadian dollar increased after the BoC rate
1.20 announcement on June 1st to 0.963, but lost its
0.75 1.15 momentum early Friday and is currently at 0.949. The
6/6/08 6/5/09 6/4/10 6/6/08 6/5/09 6/4/10 Canadian dollar has only been outperformed by the
Mexican peso and the Japanese yen in 2010 against
the U.S. dollar.
CANADIAN INTEREST U.S. INTEREST RATES
6.0 6.0
RATES (%)
(%)
5.0 5.0 Note: Latest observation taken at time of writing.
10-YEAR
10-YEAR T-BOND
4.0 GOC 4.0

3.0 3.0
Fiscal Policy — In Japan, Prime Minister Hatoyama
has been succeeded by the former Finance Minister
2.0 2.0
Naoto Kan, elected head of the ruling Democratic Party
3-MONTH on June 4. As the fifth Prime Minister in less than four
1.0 3-MONTH 1.0
BA LIBOR years, Kan has indicated a shift to tighter fiscal policy to
address Japan’s deficit, estimated by the IMF to remain
0.0 0.0
close to 10% of GDP in 2010, and its gross debt,
6/6/08 6/5/09 6/4/10 6/6/08 6/5/09 6/4/10
forecast by the IMF to surge over 225% of GDP this
year.
S&P/TSX S&P500
16000 (INDEX) 1400 (INDEX) The new leader intends to finalize by the end of June
15000 1300 the growth strategies and fiscal plans on which the
Hatoyama government has been working. More
14000 1200 expenditure control is anticipated, though the
13000 Hatoyama administration did accomplish some shift in
1100
12000 spending from physical capital to human capital
1000
11000 investment, trimming public works plans and directing
900 the funding to initiatives such as employment aid and
10000
the elimination of high school fees. An Upper House
800
9000 election is expected this summer.
8000 700

7000 600
6/6/08 6/5/09 6/4/10 6/6/08 6/5/09 6/4/10

7
Global Economic Research June 4, 2010

Economic Tables
Canada 2009 09Q4 10Q1 Latest United States 2009 09Q4 10Q1 Latest
Real GDP (annual rates) -2.5 4.9 6.1 Real GDP (annual rates) -2.4 5.6 3.0
Current Acc. Bal. (C$B, ar) -43.5 -40.8 -31.3 Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -420 -462
Merch. Trade Bal. (C$B, ar) -4.8 1.3 9.1 3.0 (Mar) Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) -517 -582 -614 -635 (Mar)
Industrial Production -10.0 -7.7 -0.3 2.6 (Mar) Industrial Production -9.8 -4.6 2.5 6.1 (Apr)
Housing Starts (000s) 149 180 199 201 (Apr) Housing Starts (millions) 0.55 0.56 0.62 0.67 (Apr)
Employment -1.6 -1.4 0.5 -1.5 (May) Employment -4.3 -4.0 -2.4 -5.1 (May)
Unemployment Rate (%) 8.3 8.4 8.2 8.1 (May) Unemployment Rate (%) 9.3 10.0 9.7 9.7 (May)
Retail Sales -2.9 2.3 7.6 9.1 (Mar) Retail Sales -7.1 2.1 6.3 9.6 (Apr)
Auto Sales (000s) 1459 1509 1567 1593 (Mar) Auto Sales (millions) 10.3 10.8 11.0 11.6 (May)
CPI 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.8 (Apr) CPI -0.4 1.4 2.4 2.2 (Apr)
IPPI -3.4 -3.4 -0.6 -0.4 (Apr) PPI -2.6 1.4 5.0 5.5 (Apr)
Pre-tax Corp. Profits -32.3 -12.1 16.8 Pre-tax Corp. Profits -2.4 53.9 45.4

Mexico Brazil
Real GDP -6.5 -2.3 4.3 Real GDP -0.1 3.9
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -5.6 -2.6 -3.1 Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -24.3 -49.0 -48.6
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) -4.7 -1.4 0.6 2.3 (Apr) Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) 25.4 16.5 57.8 41.3 (May)
Industrial Production -7.3 -1.9 5.4 7.6 (Mar) Industrial Production -7.3 6.2 17.3 16.7 (Apr)
CPI 5.3 4.0 4.8 4.3 (Apr) CPI 5.2 3.9 3.9 5.6 (Apr)

Argentina Italy
Real GDP 0.9 2.6 Real GDP -5.1 -2.8 0.6
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) 11.3 6.3 Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -0.07 -0.06 -0.09 -0.09 (Mar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) 16.9 14.3 8.5 23.2 (Apr) Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) -5.6 -10.4 -39.4 -21.8 (Mar)
Industrial Production 0.0 5.3 9.0 10.2 (Apr) Industrial Production -18.3 -9.3 2.8 6.6 (Mar)
CPI -26.9 -9.4 35.7 10.2 (Apr) CPI 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.6 (Apr)

Germany France
Real GDP -4.9 -2.2 1.5 Real GDP -2.8 -0.4 1.3
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) 168.4 280.4 173.6 293.5 (Mar) Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -59.4 -99.7 -27.9 -36.6 (Mar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) 190.3 273.5 187.1 212.0 (Mar) Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) -31.0 -35.1 -34.3 -41.8 (Mar)
Industrial Production -15.9 -8.5 5.3 8.6 (Mar) Industrial Production -13.0 -4.5 4.7 6.7 (Mar)
Unemployment Rate (%) 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.7 (May) Unemployment Rate (%) 9.5 9.9 10.0 10.1 (Apr)
CPI 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 (May) CPI 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.7 (Apr)

Euro Zone United Kingdom

Real GDP -4.1 -2.1 0.6 Real GDP -4.9 -3.1 -0.2
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -77.5 41 -109 20 (Mar) Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -28.7 -11.8
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) 54.9 114.6 21.3 99.2 (Mar) Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) -127.8 -137.5 -136.1 -135.9 (Mar)
Industrial Production -14.8 -7.5 3.9 6.8 (Mar) Industrial Production -10.2 -5.9 0.0 1.9 (Mar)
Unemployment Rate (%) 9.4 9.8 9.9 10.0 (Apr) Unemployment Rate (%) 7.6 7.8 8.0 (Feb)
CPI 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.5 (Apr) CPI 2.2 2.1 3.3 3.7 (Apr)

Japan Australia
Real GDP -5.2 -1.4 4.2 Real GDP 1.3 2.8 2.7
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) 141.7 151.8 216.5 335.1 (Mar) Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) -40.3 -71.4 -56.5
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) 28.3 75.8 87.7 93.6 (Apr) Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) -3.2 -23.0 -11.6 8.1 (Apr)
Industrial Production -21.8 -5.1 27.1 25.8 (Apr) Industrial Production -2.8 0.6 3.4
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.1 (Apr) Unemployment Rate (%) 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.4 (Apr)
CPI -1.4 -2.0 -1.2 -1.2 (Apr) CPI 1.8 2.1 2.9

China South Korea

Real GDP 8.7 10.7 11.9 Real GDP 0.2 6.0 7.8
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) 297.0 Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar) 42.7 42.2 5.3 17.9 (Apr)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) 195.7 244.6 57.7 20.2 (Apr) Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar) 42.3 46.0 13.7 52.4 (May)
Industrial Production 18.5 18.5 18.1 17.8 (Apr) Industrial Production -1.3 18.0 26.6 19.8 (Apr)
CPI 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.8 (Apr) CPI 2.8 2.4 2.7 4.8 (May)

All data expressed as year-over-year % change unless otherwise noted.

8
Global Economic Research June 4, 2010

Financial Tables
Interest Rates (%, end of period)

Canada 09Q4 10Q1 May/28 Jun/04* United States 09Q4 10Q1 May/28 Jun/04*
BoC Overnight Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 Fed Funds Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
3-mo. T-bill 0.34 0.30 0.49 0.52 3-mo. T-bill 0.05 0.15 0.16 0.13
10-yr Gov’t Bond 3.61 3.57 3.31 3.29 10-yr Gov’t Bond 3.84 3.83 3.29 3.21
30-yr Gov’t Bond 4.08 4.07 3.71 3.71 30-yr Gov’t Bond 4.64 4.71 4.21 4.14
Prime 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.50 Prime 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
FX Reserves (US$B) 54.2 56.5 56.7 (Apr) FX Reserves (US$B) 119.7 116.5 115.4 (Apr)

Germany France
3-mo. Interbank 0.60 0.49 0.56 0.55 3-mo. T-bill 0.36 0.31 0.20 0.17
10-yr Gov’t Bond 3.39 3.09 2.68 2.58 10-yr Gov’t Bond 3.59 3.42 2.94 3.01
FX Reserves (US$B) 59.9 60.2 60.4 (Apr) FX Reserves (US$B) 46.6 48.1 48.5 (Apr)

Euro-Zone United Kingdom

Refinancing Rate 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Repo Rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Overnight Rate 0.41 0.40 0.33 0.30 3-mo. T-bill 4.85 4.85 4.85 4.85
FX Reserves (US$B) 283.1 285.1 285.3 (Apr) 10-yr Gov’t Bond 4.02 3.94 3.61 3.52
FX Reserves (US$B) 55.7 57.6 59.3 (Apr)
Japan Australia
Discount Rate 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 Cash Rate 3.75 4.00 4.50 4.50
3-mo. Libor 0.22 0.18 0.18 0.18 10-yr Gov’t Bond 5.64 5.78 5.42 5.42
10-yr Gov’t Bond 1.30 1.40 1.26 1.28 FX Reserves (US$B) 39.0 34.9 37.9 (Apr)
FX Reserves (US$B) 1022.2 1015.3 1015.3 (Mar)

Exchange Rates (end of period)

USDCAD 1.05 1.02 1.05 1.05 ¥/US$ 93.01 93.46 91.06 91.77
CADUSD 0.95 0.98 0.95 0.95 US¢/Australian$ 89.74 91.72 84.75 82.73
GBPUSD 1.617 1.518 1.446 1.450 Chinese Yuan/US$ 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83
EURUSD 1.433 1.351 1.227 1.200 South Korean Won/US$ 1158 1132 1218 1223
JPYEUR 0.75 0.79 0.89 0.91 Mexican Peso/US$ 13.090 12.361 12.958 12.892
USDCHF 1.04 1.05 1.16 1.16 Brazilian Real/US$ 1.745 1.778 1.818 1.844

Equity Markets (index, end of period)

United States (DJIA) 10428 10857 10259 10019 U.K. (FT100) 5413 5680 5195 5126
United States (S&P500) 1115 1169 1103 1078 Germany (Dax) 5957 6154 5946 5939
Canada (S&P/TSX) 11746 12038 11671 11686 France (CAC40) 3936 3974 3515 3456
Mexico (Bolsa) 32120 33266 31548 31165 Japan (Nikkei) 10546 11090 9763 9901
Brazil (Bovespa) 68588 70372 62092 61893 Hong Kong (Hang Seng) 21873 21239 19767 19780
Italy (BCI) 1138 1138 974 996 South Korea (Composite) 1683 1693 1608 1664

Commodity Prices (end of period)

Pulp (US$/tonne) 830 910 960 960 Copper (US$/lb) 3.33 3.55 3.10 2.93
Newsprint (US$/tonne) 530 565 578 578 Zinc (US$/lb) 1.17 1.07 0.85 0.76
Lumber (US$/mfbm) 203 286 242 229 Gold (US$/oz) 1087.50 1115.50 1211.00 1203.50
WTI Oil (US$/bbl) 79.36 83.76 74.55 72.12 Silver (US$/oz) 16.99 17.50 18.36 17.76
Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) 5.57 3.87 4.29 4.81 CRB (index) 283.38 273.34 257.72 250.61
* Note: Latest observation taken at time of writing.