April 20, 2016

Currency Daily

RUPEE GAIN 10 PAISE AGAINST US DOLLAR TO CLOSE AT

66.55
Currency Spot
Spot

Close

USDINR

66.553

Dollar Index

Prev.
% Chg.
Close
66.645
-0.14%

94.04

94.628

-0.62%

EURUSD

1.1364

1.1305

0.52%

GBPUSD

1.439

1.418

1.48%

109.05

108.27

0.72%

66.33

66.653

-0.48%

USDJPY
DGCX USDINR

* Updated at 8:00 am (Source: Bloomberg)

Prev.
Close

Close

Chg.

% Chg

Asian Markets*
SGX Nifty

7977

7924

53

0.67%

Nifty

7915

7850

64

0.82%

Sensex

25816

25627

190

0.74%

HangSeng

21300

21435

Nikkei

16971

16876

3042

3043

S&P Index

2101

2095

0.29%

Dow Jones

18054

18005

49

0.27%

4940

4960

Shanghai

-135 -0.63%
95

0.56%

-1 -0.02%

US Market

Nasdaq

-20 -0.40%

European Markets
FTSE

6405

6353

52

0.82%

CAC

4566

4506

60

1.33%

DAX

10350

10121

229

2.26%

* Asian Market as at 8:00 am (Source: Bloomberg)

FII Activity (Provisional Rs. in Cr.)

Equity
Debt

Indias 10-year bond yield closed at 7.417% as compared

with its Wednesdays close of 7.435%.
On the domestic front, India's wholesale prices fell for the
17th straight month in March, though the decline was
marginal. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation
declined to -0.85% as compared to -2.33% from a year ago
and -0.91% recorded in February.
Indias trade deficit at a record low of $5 billion in
March

Global Indices
Indices

On Monday, the rupee rose ten paise against the US dollar to

close at 66.55 on weakness in the greenback in overseas
markets and expectation of fresh foreign fund flow on
stronger domestic equity market. The rupee traded in the
range of 66.52 to 66.71 throughout the day before ending at
66.55, a gain of 0.14%.

13-Apr-16

12-Apr-16

428.27

155.68

-537.98

300.46

(Source: CDSL)

Indias merchandise exports contracted for the 16th straight

month by 5.47%, merchandise imports shrank 21.56%,
leading to a trade deficit of $5 billion in March. Indias exports
fell 15.9% to $261.1 billion in 2015-16 while imports
contracted by 15.3% to $379.6 billion. The trade deficit for
the year was $118.5 billion.
Dollar Fell Against
Economic Data

Major

Currencies

on

Weaker

The dollar lost ground against its major European rivals

Tuesday, but was nearly unchanged in comparison to the
Japanese Yen. The weakness in the U.S. currency was caused
by a particularly strong read on German economic sentiment.
Meanwhile, U.S. housing starts and building permits both
came in weaker than anticipated.
German economic confidence strengthened for the second
straight month to a four-month high in April on easing
concerns over China. The Indicator of Economic Sentiment
rose by a more-than-expected 6.9 points to 11.2 in April. This
was the highest score seen so far this year.
The report said U.S. housing starts tumbled by 8.8% to an
annual rate of 1.089 million in March after jumping by 6.9%
to a revised 1.194 million in February. Building permits, an
indicator of future housing demand, also dove by 7.7% to a
rate of 1.086 million in March from a revised 1.177 million in
February. The decrease surprised traders and economist, who
had expected building permits to climb 2.8% to a rate of
1.200 million from the 1.167 originally reported for the
previous month.
The Euro continuing to recover from a low of $1.1234 set last
week to $1.1358. It may trade volatile ahead of the European
Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday.
The pound gained for a third day as a rally in global stocks
brought some relief for this years worst- performing major
currency. Currency touched its strongest level this month
versus both the euro and the greenback even as Bank of
England Governor Mark Carney said Tuesday that the impact
on the U.K. economy of Britain leaving the European Union
after a referendum in June would be unhelpful.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

April 20, 2016

Currency Daily
SHORT TERM USDINR OUTLOOK
Pair

Expected Range

SPOT USDINR

66.97 65.90

USDINR : RESISTANCE AT 20 SDMA (66.77)

SPOT USDINR : DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR (SPOT) continues downward momentum with the pair loses

66.55.

Lower top and Lower bottom formation remained intact on the daily chart with recent lower
top formed at 66.97.

Short-term moving averages are trading below medium term moving averages, indicating
bearish scenario for USDINR.

However, Daily RSI has been forming higher bottoms when USDINR forms lower bottoms.
This development is called positive divergence, which indicates that strength of the bears is
reducing compared to previous period. But for getting confirmation of trend reversal bullish
price breakout is must, which is not the case as of yet.

The pair has got strong support at 66.07, which happened to the double bottom on the daily
chart. Resistance for the same is placed at 66.97.

Looking at the above technical evidences, the outlook for the pair remains range bound to
bearish till the sequence of lower top-bottom changes to higher top-bottom. Bulls will take
charge only above 66.97.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

10 paise to close at

April 20, 2016

Currency Daily
CURRENCY PRICE MOVEMENT
APR.16

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

CLOSE

% CHG

OI

OI CHG

VOL

VOL CHG

USDINR

66.67

66.80

66.60

66.64

-0.12

1058738

-391802

EURINR

75.35

75.52

75.26

75.40

-0.07

62901

141

37319

-32172

GBPINR

94.82

94.82

94.36

94.52

-0.59

21657

2624

56825

-9990

JPYINR

61.65

61.85

61.37

61.51

0.75

22994

1613

24057

-2521

1984338 -100538

1 WEEK
HIGH

1 WEEK
LOW

1 MONTH
HIGH

1 MONTH
LOW

52 WEEK
HIGH

52 WEEK
LOW

USDINR

66.67

66.32

67.51

66.07

68.79

62.49

EURINR

76.23

75.24

76.23

73.46

77.49

66.97

GBPINR

95.37

93.70

96.48

93.34

105.28

93.30

JPYINR

61.67

60.74

61.79

58.43

61.79

50.84

SPOT

CURRENCY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

APR.16

CLOSE

PIVOT

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR FUT.

66.64

66.68

66.37

66.48

66.56

66.76

66.64

66.68

EURINR FUT.

75.40

75.39

75.02

75.14

75.27

75.53

75.40

75.39

GBPINR FUT.

94.52

94.56

93.84

94.10

94.31

94.77

94.52

94.56

JPYINR FUT.

61.51

61.58

60.83

61.10

61.31

61.78

61.51

61.58

MAJOR MOVING AVERAGES

SPOT

LAST

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

66.55

66.50

66.62

67.42

67.09

65.99

EURINR

75.27

75.59

75.12

75.08

73.66

72.97

GBPINR

94.36

94.63

94.53

95.65

97.03

98.84

JPYINR

61.38

61.19

60.06

59.96

57.95

55.82

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

April 20, 2016

Currency Daily
ECONOMIC DATA RELEASED
Date Time

Country

Event

Period

Survey

Actual

Prior

04/19/2016 13:30

EC

ECB Current Account SA

Feb

--

19.0b

04/19/2016 13:30

EC

Current Account NSA

Feb

--

11.1b

8.3b

04/19/2016 14:30

EC

ZEW Survey Expectations

Apr

--

21.5

10.6

04/19/2016 18:00

US

Housing Starts

Mar

1170k

1089k

1194k

04/19/2016 18:00

US

Building Permits

Mar

1200k

1086k

1177k

27.5b

ECONOMIC DATA TODAY

Date Time

Country

Event

04/20/2016 05:20

JN

Trade Balance

Mar

835b

755b

243b

04/20/2016 14:00

UK

Claimant Count Rate

Mar

2.10%

--

2.10%

04/20/2016 14:00

UK

Jobless Claims Change

Mar

-10.0k

--

-18.0k

04/20/2016 14:00

UK

ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths

Feb

5.10%

--

5.10%

04/20/2016 16:30

US

MBA Mortgage Applications

--

--

10.00%

04/20/2016 19:30

US

Existing Home Sales

5.26m

--

5.08m

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Period

15-Apr
Mar

Survey

Actual

Prior

Currency Daily

April 20, 2016

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]