Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
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Coordinacin, edicin
y anlisis
Gene C. Towle
Coeditores: - Claudia Velzquez ,
Jorge Yarza
Diseo- Jazmn Gutirrez
Investigacin - Louise David - Gabriela Cano - Luis Medina - Gabriel del Castillo -
Fotografas
The Mexican Housing Overview in its edition number thirteen presents an analysis of the Housing Industry in Mexico. It
is based on proprietary information gathered and analyzed by
Softec. S.C., as well as information published by INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadstica Geografa e Informtica), SHCP
(Secretara de Hacienda y Crdito Pblico), Banco de Mxico,
FOVI, Infonavit, CIHAC, Bimsa, GEA (Grupo de Economistas
y Asociados), AMSFOL (Asociacin Mexicana de Sociedades de
Financiamiento de Objeto Limitado), and others.
The data presented in this report is the result of continued evaluation and review of market information as it relates to the Housing
Industry. The information presented for 2011 and previous years
is the result of primary field work and secondary research, and is
subject to statistical and methodological variations, as compared
to other sources (information about the methodology used by
Softec is available).
Acknowledgments / Reconocimientos
Softec would specifically like to thank/Softec desea agradecer especficamente a:
CIHAC: Gonzalo Gout (In Memoriam) CONSORCIO ARA HIPOTECARIA SU CASITA BANAMEX SADASI
HOMEX URBI SANTANDER (Mxico) BANCA HIPOTECARIA BANCOMER GRUPO VALORAN / DESARROLLO
DEL PEDREGAL DE SAN LUIS CRDITO INMOBILIARIO SERVIARROYO VINTE / REAL PARASO BANORTE
CORPORACIN GEO CEMEX INFONAVIT
Sin su apoyo, opiniones y ayuda este documento no hubiera sido posible.
Thanks to you all / Gracias a todos
de
cortesa
Introduction
Introduccin
CO
NSOR
CIO
ARA / courtesy of
CONSORCIO ARA
Introduction
Demographics
Mexico has a relatively young population. According to CONAPO, median age is 26 and the total population estimate for
2012 is 114 million. This demographic distribution points to an
expected growth of the housing stock of around 600,000 units
per year until 2015. Together with an increase in Mexican
households purchase capacity, household formation, domestic
migration, and substitution for better homes, the outlook for
this market is excellent.
Market drivers
Introduccin
Demografa
Impulsores de mercado
The top Sofoms are: Apoyo Inmobiliario y Patrimonio. The main Las principales Sofomes son: Apoyo Inmobiliario y Patrimonio. Los
banks that offer mortgage lending are BBVA, Santander, Scotia Bank, principales bancos que ofrecen crditos hipotecarios son BBVA, SanBanorte, Banamex, and HSBC.
tander, Scotia Bank, Banorte, Banamex y HSBC.
introduction
introduccin
500,000
400,000
300,000
V
RP
R
M
200,000
E
S
100,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Urban new housing is produced by homebuilders. Developers operate in medium and large urban centers (>150,000
inhabitants) that can sustain the industrial construction and
production of housing.
The market is very pulverized but
there are several publicly traded and private homebuilders that
have become dominating forces in the markets they serve and
are worth noting. The largest in 2010 was Corporacin GEO
with 56,093 units; it is followed by HOMEX with 48,442 units;
URBI with 33,478 units; SADASI-ALTTA with 19,700 units;
and ARA with 18,243 units.
La vivienda nueva urbana es producida por desarrolladores inmobiliarios. Los desarrolladores operan en centros urbanos medianos y grandes
(>150,000 habitantes) que pueden soportar la construccin y produccin industrial de viviendas. El mercado est bastante pulverizado,
pero existen varias constructoras de vivienda, tanto de las que cotizan
en bolsa como las que no, que son dignas de mencin ya que se han
convertido en fuerzas dominantes dentro del mercado al que atienden.
La ms grande en 2010 fue Corporacin GEO con 56,093 unidades;
le siguen HOMEX con 48,442 unidades; URBI con 33,478 unidades;
SADASI-ALTTA con 19,700 unidades y ARA con 18,243 unidades.
Market growth
Since 2008, the market has contracted by 19% in volume and 33% in
value. This is a consequence of the global financial contraction, the
rise in taxes to Mexican companies and consumers, and the decline
in the local mortgage industry.
The market with the strongest drie in 2011 was the S market (US$9$24,000) due to the strong support from the special upfront subsidy
program to purchase first-time homes. This subsidy program caters to
families with incomes under 6MW (US$750/month). The E market
(US$24-$45,000) has stabilized, growing by 7.2% in volume and 0.3%
in value. The M market (US$45-$111,000) contracted 13.1% in volume and 4.1% in value, due to a decrease in demand and production.
Between 2001 and 2008, the market grew from 250,000 to 503,000
units built and sold each year and from US$7.5 billion to US$25.9
billion. This growth was possible due to the strong Government
support to the industry. The Affordable Entry Level market (homes
selling for less than US$40,000) has seen the restructuring of INFONAVIT, the creation of SHF (Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal), and
loans from FOVISSSTE offered to Government workers and teachers.
Between 2005 and 2008, housing markets in vacation destinations
had an unexpected boom, and homes worth over US$40,000 finally
gained access to credit.
introduction
introduccin
7000
2000
1800
6000
1600
Total V
Total RP
4000
Total R
Total M
3000
Total E
Total S
2000
Projects/Proyectos
Projects/Proyectos
5000
1400
Total S
1200
Total E
1000
Total M
Total R
800
Total RP
600
Total V
400
1000
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
200
Mortgage lending
Crditos hipotecarios
Mortgage payments in Mexico are usually indexed to the minimum wage, which is in turn linked to inflation. This makes consumers very insensitive to interest rate changes INFONAVIT
and FOVISSSTE loans are priced at inflation plus 4-8%. Banks
lend fixed peso loans at 12-15%. Infonavit is now attempting to
offer fixed-rate peso loans.
introduction
introduccin
Courtesy: GEO
10
Courtesy: GEO
Ttulos hipotecarios
Su Casita also made the first cross-border issue for construction loans. Su Casita tambin hizo la primera emisin transfronteriza para crditos
The substantial price spread between Mexican and International de construccin. El importante diferencial de precio entre los ttulos
securities makes this market be very interesting.
mexicanos y los internacionales hace de este un mercado muy interesante.
In March 2004, INFONAVIT made the second MBS sale in Mexican
history. This sale is very relevant because it marks the entry into the
financial markets of the largest financial institution in the country. INFONAVIT is estimated to place approximately US$1.07 billion in 2010.
MBS are now a very common instrument, and they should continue
to help mortgage loan originators to fund in the longer term At the
end of 2010, INFONAVIT had placed USD$5.0 billion. There are
currently US$2.9 billion in Mortgage Backed Securities from Sofoms.
Although this market still shows moderate annual growth rates, it
should once again become the source of long-term growth for the
mortgage financing industry.
Main players
Actores principales
introduction
introduccin
Courtesy: ARA
Courtesy: ARA
Although these developers will continue to dominate, the return of the Middle market has also placed smaller developers
that focus on the higher value segments on a path of growth
and expansion: they will probably become important players
in the near future.
Expectations
Expectativas
The Mexican housing market must reinvent itself, due to the changes
in the financial sectors all around the world. It is necessary to recover
the variables that will continue on their growth trend in the future:
Underwritten lands, infrastructure, and mortgage loans.
Softec estima que habr otro ciclo de gran expansin del mercado que
pudiera ser similar al de 1998-2006 a partir del 2013 y con una duracin
similar (10 aos) siempre y cuando el sistema financiero hipotecario
siga alineado con el mercado y se cree un sistema de financiamiento a
la construccin balanceado que permita la construccin de infraestructura, lotificacin, edificacin y venta de producto terminado.
In 2011, the market will finish the adjustments and restructures resulting from the market and financial troubles that began in 2008. The
messages of potential homebuyers regarding the need to adjust the
current production models, by taking more and more credits to purchase existing housing, and to improve the current home, will be well
received in the new development models proposed by DUIS and by
the ever growing numbers of vertical housing projects in several cities
around the country. The gradual reduction of construction financing
in the last four years will make it difficult for finished new housing sales
to recover in 2012, due to a lack of supply. Unfortunately, the startup
of new projects is a time-consuming process; combined with the start
of the electoral season, it is very likely that there will be programs to
boost homebuying through low interests or down payments, as has
been done before.
11
Durante el 2011 el mercado terminar los ajustes y reestructuras producto de los problemas de mercado y financieros iniciados en 2008. Los
mensajes de los demandantes sobre la necesidad de ajustar los actuales
modelos de produccin, al tomar cada vez ms crditos para la compra
de vivienda usada y para mejoras de su vivienda actual, tendrn una acogida importante en los nuevos modelos de desarrollo planteados por los
DUIS y por los cada vez ms proyectos de vivienda vertical en diversas
ciudades del pas. La paulatina reduccin del financiamiento a la construccin durante los ltimos cuatro aos dificultarn la recuperacin
de las ventas de vivienda nueva terminada en 2012 por falta de oferta.
Desafortunadamente, el arranque de nuevos proyectos es un proceso
que toma tiempo, combinado con el inicio de la temporada electoral,
es muy poco probable que haya programas para estimular la compra de
casa a travs de bajos intereses o enganches como en otras ocasiones.
introduction
introduccin
244
www.softec.com.mx
Tel. 50638800 Fax: 50633677
Av. San Jernimo 428, Col. Jardines del Pedregal, C.P. 01900, Mxico D.F.
@Softecmex
Softec, Consultora en Proyectos Inmobiliarios
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