Faculty of Environmental Sciences Department of Hydrosciences

Institute of Urban Water Management, Chair of Urban Water Management

Integrated Water Resources Management

Present & Future State of Water Supply
Services in Lviv Area
Seminar Paper

By:

Akram, Humayoun
Bodner, Elias
Chakraborty, Prosenjiit
Ejaz, Fahad
Ekren, Meliha Gamze
Tufail, Sohail Ahmed

Course of studies:

Hydro Science & Engineering

Supervisor:

Dipl.-Ing. Bjrn Helm, TU Dresden

Dipl.-Ing. Mariane Schneider, TU Dresden

Responsible Professor:

Prof. Dr. Peter Krebs, TU Dresden

Submitted:

Dresden, 30/09/2014

Name

Work Done

Akram Humayoun

Introduction, Run WEAP Model

Bodner, Elias
Chakraborty,
Prosenjiit

Abstract, Population, over all Formatting and Arrangement

Ejaz, Fahad
Ekren, Meliha
Gamze
Tufail, Sohail
Ahmed

Industry
Water Losses, Results and Discussion, Summary and
Conclusion
Water Supply
Review of Reports, Water Supply, Internal Review and
arrangement

Group Work

-3-

Declaration
We hereby declare that this seminar paper has been written by ourselves without any
external unauthorized help that it has been neither presented to any institution for
evaluation. Any parts, words or ideas, of this seminar paper, however limited,
including tables, graphs, maps etc., which are quoted from or based on other sources
have been acknowledged as such without exception.

Dresden, 30/09/2014

-5-

Abstract
The present seminar paper deals with the current and future state of water supply in
Lviv area (Ukraine). Major contributors, such as demographical changes, industrial
growth, per-capita water consumption and transmission losses of distribution
networks are presented in the present state for Lviv area. Future estimates are
approached to obtain a further understanding and characterize the space in which
the future of water supply of Lviv area may unfold.
Three Future scenarios (from 2014 to 2050) are analyzed in this seminar paper by
taking into consideration the 24 hours supply in the future and losses from the
distribution network further population projections, change in consumption patterns
and industrial growth is considered as influencing factors. It is projected that the
current supplies of ground water resource would be enough for future studied
scenarios except in last few years. However, caution should be taken in interpreting
the results because climate change effects are not considered in this paper.
The present seminar paper further highlights the present status of water supply and
predicts future scenarios needed to be taken into account for supplying the required
amount of water for Lviv area. This report provides vital information to society and
water supply services of Lviv area as it contemplates the responses of
demographical, industrial, human-behavioral changes and transmission losses of
water distribution networks.

Keywords:

Lviv area, water supply, population growth, industry, water

consumption, transmission losses

-7-

Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................ 7
2 CURRENT AND FUTURE STATE...................................................................................................... 9
2.1

POPULATION.................................................................................................................................... 9

2.1.1 Preliminary remarks................................................................................................................. 9

2.1.2 Current state of population in Lviv area..................................................................................10
2.1.3 Future estimation for population in Lviv area..........................................................................11
2.2

WATER SUPPLY............................................................................................................................. 12

2.2.1 Preliminary remarks............................................................................................................... 12

2.2.2 Current state of water supply in Lviv area..............................................................................13
2.2.3 Future estimation of water consumption in Lviv area.............................................................14
2.3

INDUSTRY...................................................................................................................................... 15

2.3.1 Preliminary remarks............................................................................................................... 15

2.3.2 Current state of industry in Lviv area......................................................................................16
2.3.3 Future estimation of industry in Lviv area...............................................................................17
2.4

WATER LOSSES............................................................................................................................. 18

2.4.1 Preliminary remarks............................................................................................................... 18

2.4.2 Current state of water losses in Lviv area..............................................................................20
2.4.3 Future scenario...................................................................................................................... 20
3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION......................................................................................................... 23
3.1

SCENARIO DESCRIPTIONS:............................................................................................................. 24

3.2

WATER SUPPLY DEMAND AND DELIVERY TO LVIV CITY....................................................................25

3.3

WATER SUPPLY REQUIRED AND DELIVERY TO LVIV VILLAGE............................................................27

3.4

WATER SUPPLY REQUIRED AND DELIVERY TO LVIV INDUSTRY:.........................................................28

3.5

TOTAL UNMET DEMAND................................................................................................................. 29

4 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION...................................................................................................... 30

5 LIST OF REFERENCES.................................................................................................................. 31
6 LIST OF FIGURES........................................................................................................................... 33
7 LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................................................. 34

-9-

Introduction

Water is a key element of life for everyone on earth. Water may seem abundant, but
less than one percent of the worlds water can be used for human needs. Global
water scarcity is one of the most crucial problems affecting people all around the
world. Regionally, population growth, industrial changes and human behavior
patterns for water use are major contributors towards water scarcity. Growth in
population and industry and increasing per-capita water consumption means
mounting demand and competition for water supply services. Demographic trends,
industrial growth or decay coupled with increasing per-capita water consumption will
be huge development challenges in the upcoming decades of 21 st century. Thus,
water supply services are liable on future scenario estimates, which are driven by
present trends in order to be able to provide the required amount of water.
The city of Lviv is the important cultural, economic and academic hub of western
Ukraine (USAID, 1996). The city is suffering from the ailing infrastructure problem
and to this water supply infrastructure is no different. Mainly due to infrastructure the
losses from the system are high (25% to 40%) (Environment. Policy Report 1996), for
6 hours daily supply. It is aimed that in future the supply will be increased from 6
hours to 24 hours and resulting losses from the system will be 35% to 60%. The main
purpose of this report is to determine the supply required for the Lviv region for 2050
by considering its population difference, the industrial growth and corresponding
amount of water consumed during this period and water losses under different
scenarios. Lviv Vodocanal is the responsible company for the supply of water to the
Lviv Region, it is considered that this company provides water for domestic and
industrial consumption in the city and the surrounding villages. Source of the water
supply is the ground water, one of the ground water aquifer lies in Lviv Region but the
other lies in the region of Busk downstream from Lviv to supplement the supply.
In this report the three future scenarios are analyzed by taking into account system
losses, population changes, consumption changes during this period. It is further
analyzed that whether two aquifers used to supply water for the future will be
- 11 -

sufficient to meet the demand imposed by the changing parameters. Further, it is

assumed that the climate conditions remain the same during this period and the
consumption is influenced by time the amount of water is supplied to the region, for
higher supply time (24 hours) the water consumption will be more but for less supply
time consumption will be less.

- 13 -

Current and Future State

2.1

Population

2.1.1

Preliminary remarks

Population growth is a major contributor to water scarcity. Growth in populations

means mounting demand and competition for water for domestic use. Therefore
more people are exposed to water shortages (Falkenmark & Wildstrand, 1992).
These demographic trends, coupled with increasing per-capita water consumption,
will be a huge development challenge (Bates et al., 2008). Thus, water supply
services are liable on future population estimates, which are driven by present trends
in order to be able to supply the needed amount of water for a certain population.
Population growth or decrease, therefore, is a driving force behind the breakneck
pace of urbanization and compounds the challenges of providing safe water to city
dwellers (PAI, 2004).
Ukraines population has been declining dramatically since the country began the
transition from a centrally planned to a market economy. The total population loss
between 1989 (the last pre-transition population census) and 2011 constitutes 5,9
million people or 11,5% of the total population (Derzhavniy Komitet Statistyky
Ukrayini, 2011). This considerable decrease was caused by declining fertility,
increasing mortality, significant net out-migration and exacerbated due to the socioeconomic crisis that occurred in Ukraine following the collapse of the Soviet Union in
1991. In 1992, Ukraines population reached its peak of 52,2 million and its steady
decline started (Derzhavniy Komitet Statistyky Ukrayini, 2000; 2006; 2008).
However, the rural population decline started long before the transition of the 1990s
and demonstrated a slightly higher rate of decline than the urban population
(Derzhavniy Komitet Statistyky Ukrayini, 2011). According to Ukraines State
Committee of Statistics (2011), the first signs of depopulation in rural areas were
observed as early as 1979, which is thirteen years earlier than in urban areas. The
situation had worsened by the beginning of the 1990s, when rural populations
- 15 -

suffered from unemployment, critical aging, worsening health conditions, and a

deteriorated social infrastructure brought on by the economic crisis associated with
the transition to a market economy.
2.1.2

Current state of population in Lviv area

Official population statistics have been available for Lviv from the year 2001.
According to the Lviv Vodokanal Design Review Report (2004) the population
increased steadily for several decades until the middle of the 1990s. The population
in the year 2002 indicated a slow increase of 0.4% per year. However it must be
noted that the Lviv Vodokanal Design Review Report only refers to the population of
Lviv city (Sweco International, Lviv Vodokanal Design Review Report, 2004). Thus,
the present seminar paper refers not only to Lviv city but to Lviv area.
In contrast to the findings reported by Sweco International in the Lviv, Vodokanal
Design Review Report (2004) Figure 1 plots the population in Lviv area over a 10
years period from 2004 to 2014. The total population of Lviv area decreased slightly
by approximately -2.3%. However, it must be noted that the population is separated
in rural and urban population (see Figure 1). Thus, the largest change is attributable
to decreases in the rural population (-5.2%), which reflects the total population the
most and highlights the fact that rural changes show higher rates in depopulation
than urban areas (see Section 2.1.1). The urban population only accounts about a
decline of approximately -0.3% over the time period from 2004 to 2014. The current
population of Lviv area which is based on the average population from January
February is separated into an urban population of 1545490 and a rural population of
992341, giving a total population in Lviv area of 2537831 (see Figure 1).

- 17 -

3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000

Rural

Urban

Total

500000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Figure 1:

Average population of Lviv area from January February (2004-2014). Data

obtained from State Statistics Service of Ukraine documents publishing,
available at http://ukrstat.org/en.

2.1.3

Future estimation for population in Lviv area

In the following a future prediction of population will be given from 2014 to 2054. The
estimated population has hereby been based on the urban and rural trends obtained
by analyzing the period from 2004-2014 (see Section 2.1.2 & Figure 1). The average
decreases for the 10-year period were subsequently implemented to predict a future
population scenario. It must be noted that the future population of Lviv should only be
referred to as a possible future prediction.

- 19 -

3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000

Rural

Urban

Total

1000000
500000
0
2014
Figure 2:

2024

2034

2044

2054

Population estimation for Lviv area from 2014-2054, based on the average
urban & rural population (January-February) decrease within 10 years period
from 2004-2014 (see Figure 1). Data for 2014 obtained from State Statistics
Service of Ukraine documents publishing, available at http://ukrstat.org/en.

According to the population estimation in Figure 2, the population of Lviv area will
continue to decrease until 2054 with an approximate decline of 8.2% in relation to the
total population of 2014 (see Figure 2). The 40-year population prognosis results in a
total population of 2328598 in the year of 2054, which is separated into a rural
population of 801636 and an urban population of approximately 1526962. The
present seminar paper and following sections regarding the future state of water
supply services in Lviv area will refer to the shown population estimates (see Figure
2).
1.1

Water supply

1.1.1

Preliminary remarks

Annual average water provision per inhabitant in Ukraine is 15 times lower than
standard, determined by United Nations Europe Economic Commission. It ranks
lowest in Europe in terms of sufficiency of water supply and its water consumption
per one unit of GDP exceeds that of its European neighbors by several folds. 26%
- 21 -

urban water services i.e. water supply and sewerage networks are in an emergency
state, 40% pump stations require major repair or replacement. Water Resources are
managed partly by water resource user committees and partly by canal
administration.
Lviv's water supply has slightly improved since 1996, but as yet only about 15
percent of the inhabitants have a 24-hour water supply. According to LVK data, as of
September 2000, 63 percent of Lviv's households had a scheduled cold water supply
of between six and ten hours per day. A limited and quota-based survey carried out
under the RSA indicates that about 56 percent of households water supply for not
more than six hours per day. In spite of these differences in estimates, it appears that
an improvement has been achieved in comparison to 1996 when almost two-thirds of
households had the water supply less or around six hours a day. These recent
improvements are mainly through the relatively more stable and regular manner in
which the water is supplied now. LVK observes its water supply schedule and
regularly informs households about possible changes. This more stable and regular
water supply has encouraged households to store less water in comparison to 1996.
Although the respondents claim that the water distribution is not equal, limited
variations concerning the access to water in some parts of the city seem to be based
more on technical constraints (network, capacity of pump stations). The importance
of some public institutions in downtown Lviv makes the neighboring residential areas
relatively more privileged in having more hours of water supply per day. (World Bank,
2001).
In 2002, Ukraine asked World Bank for a loan to improve water supply services and
quality in Lviv. In March 2003, the Ukrainian parliament finally ratified a World Bank
loan for financing the renovation of water and sewage system of Lviv, a city with a
population of 800,000, of which 63% were receiving water for six or less hours per
day during the 1990s. Lviv Water and Wastewater project aimed the rehabilitation of
pumping stations, replacement of around 20 km of pipelines, financing the purchase
of repair and construction equipment to make immediate improvements to the water
networks, and institutional strengthening of Lviv Vodokanal through the introduction
- 23 -

of modern management principles, new water tariff structures and cost-saving

measures. In 2006, it was disbursed, helping to solve some problems, though leaving
the overall picture little improved. The situation is complicated by the fact that the city
is located in an area with no large reservoirs with drinking-quality water. Lvivs water
comes from 17 water intakes located within a 110 km radius of the city. Groundwater
is collected in nearly 200 wells, some of which are 250 meters deep.
Most urgent national problems until 2025, in the field of water and land resources use
will be the following: deficiency of fresh water availability, uneven distribution and
availability of good quality surface and ground waters, over-use of ground water for
agricultural and rural settlements and insufficient natural and artificial territory
drainability.
1.1.2

Current state of water supply in Lviv area

The Lviv water supply system is a complex engineering structure that was founded
about 100 years ago. A report by State Committee of Statistics of Ukraine says,
based only on underground sources, the water supply has increased since then from
18,000 (1896) to 412,000 (1996) cubic meters per day.
The oldest well fields were situated 25 km west of Lviv. From 1960 to 1980 new water
sources were developed north and south of Lviv, and during the last 10 years the
construction of well fields was very intensive in the east. Well-field construction was
halted in 1990-1995 because of a shortage of funding (State Committee of Statistics
of Ukraine, 2001).
The water supply system comprises 172 water wells, 20 well fields, and 19 pumping
stations. The total water supply network length is 1,500 km, of which 700 km were
built before 1970. The difference in elevation is about 120 m. The water supply
system consists of 6 pressure zones that cover the whole city, with pressure between
1 to 6 atmospheres (atm). The scheduled period of water supply is 6 hours per day (3
hours in the morning and 3 hours in the evening). Water consumption is distributed
- 25 -

as follows: the residential population consumes 56%, industrial enterprises consume

7%, communal and budget enterprises consume 37% of water. The key goal for the
Lviv water system has been defined as assisting the Vodokanal in becoming a viable
organization which supplies water to users 24 hours a day (Ukraine, Belarus and
Moldova Regional Office, 1996).
Reduction of the use of underground water i.e. Lviv Water and Wastewater project
aims at gradually reducing the rate of water consumption in Lviv from 207 I/ca./d
(1999) to 173 I/ca./d by 2005 and 153 l/ca./d by 2010. It will also reduce the quantity
of leakage by proper pressure zoning and repairing most critical parts of the water
supply network. The level of water production is expected to decrease from 354,000
m3/d (2000) to 239,000 m3/d (2010) (Ukraine Environmental Management Plan,
2000).
1.1.3

Future estimation of water consumption in Lviv area

Water supply (m3/day) and water consumption (l/ca/d) estimations for future years
2014, 2024, 2034, 2044 and 2054 were calculated by determining an incremental
change for four 10 year period of estimations based on the future estimates of
population in Lviv area.
Table 1:

Future water consumption in liters per capita per day.

Year

Consumption (l/cap./d)

2014
2024
2034
2044
2054

147
123
125
126
127

These estimates are based on the assumption that with the passage of time the
water consumption per capita is decreasing per day. As the statistics show that from
1999 to 2010 the water consumption is reduced to 55 liters/cap./day. The main
reason for this is the increase in water metering in the Lviv area. There is also
- 27 -

increase in water prices and awareness among people due to high energy required
to provide service for domestic water supply.
The values (Table 1) for urban water supply are used throughout from 2014 to 2050
according to scenario 1. In scenario 2 it is predicted that after 2034 the Lviv
Vodokanal LVK (Lviv Water and Wastewater Company's) will ensure 24 hours water
supply which is their main aim. While, in third scenario it is considered that Lviv
Vodokanal will ensure 24 hours water supply in 2024. With the increase in water
supply (24 hrs) the consumption will increase and it is estimated to be 200
liters/capita/day. This will be the situation when much attention will be paid towards
infrastructure and water supply. The last scenario requires serious efforts and political
support for the provision of funds.
2.2

Industry

2.2.1

Preliminary remarks

Lviv Region is a highly developed industrial region of Ukraine. The major

manufacturing industries are food and soft drinks processing, machine building, and
transportation on equipment. In food processing, a prominent firm is the Svitoch
confectionary factory (owned by Nestle), (Ukraine today, Lviv Region) which supplies
both the domestic market and exports its product abroad. Another important name is
the instant coffee and other instant drink packaging company Halka. Finally, the
brewery Lvivska Pyvovarnya is the largest beer producer in Western Ukraine and
currently belongs to the Carlsberg Group. Transport equipment manufacturing is
represented by Pasavtorom, Ukraines manufacturer of city buses (City Profile, Lviv
2012). Currently the enterprise is experiencing financial difficulties but has impressive
capacity.

- 29 -

Figure 3:

The main industrial products in Lviv Ukraine & trends of series. (Structural
shifts in the exports & industrial production effect of Ukraine, Natalia Cherkas,
2013).

The food industry and processing of agricultural raw material, machine-building,

chemical and petrochemical, cellulose-paper, printing industry and publishing
business are the leading spheres of the regional industry. 100% of state volumes of
newsprint paper and autoloaders are manufactured in the region, more than 98% of
lighting electric lamps, almost 80% of motor-car cranes and more than 27% of buses
(City Profile, Lviv 2012). Chemical industry is one of the principal sectors of the
Ukrainian economy. It has more than 200 associations and enterprises, producing
more than 20 thousands major and 100 thousands auxiliary chemical products.
According to the data of the State Statistics Committee the share of chemical and
allied industries products in the structure of Ukrainian exports in 2011 comprised
7.9% (City Profile, Lviv 2012).

- 31 -

2.2.2

Current state of industry in Lviv area

The data for Industry in lviv sector is available in knoema, Ukraine (Ukraine Regional
dataset 2013). It shows the data from individual months of the year from 2009 & is
updated to October 2013. According to that & by exploring the data we find that index
of industrial production in 2009 was 80% (Ukraine Regional dataset,2013) which has
increased in 2011 up to 113 percent but after that it starts decreasing & it has
decreased up to 105 percent till 2012 (Ukraine Regional Dataset, 2013).

% of GDP (Industry) against Year

40
30
% of GDP (Industry)

20
10
0
2009

Figure 4:

2010

2011

2012

2013

Rate of increase or decrease of industry.

According to the data of World Bank where it shows the same result as the
percentage of GDP in accordance to the industry has decreased in 2012 & 2013
which is subsequently is 29.2 percent & 26.9 percent (WDS, The World Bank
Dataset, 2014).
2.2.3

Future estimation of industry in Lviv area

According to the report of Environment Policy & Technology project which has been
prepared for U.S Agency for International Development, Regional U.S Aid Mission
for Ukraine & Moldova it is stated that industrial increase is 7.1% & subsequently the
water consumption is almost 21000 m/day. This data is for the year of 1995
(Environment policy & technology project 1996).
According to the paper of Water metering policies in the former Soviet Union:
lessons from Lviv, Ukraine published by Jonathan P. Deason, Janelle D. Daaneit
- 33 -

stated that in the year of 1998 the industry has increased up to 8% & the water
consumption has also increased to 7733985 m/day (Jonathan P. Deason & Janelle
D. Daaneit, 1997).
But as percentage of GDP is showing the decreasing rate, potential resources are
increasing and Lviv export are increasing (Lviv Investment portal,Lviv City Council),
so we assume that in future the industry will also increase. So according to the base
of increase in 1995 & 1998 the increase of water consumption till 2054 will be
approximately 9588882 m/day. For 1995 the percentage of increase is 7.1 %
(According to Environment Policy & Technology Project 1996. (UKRAINE Summary
Report on Lviv Vodokanal Workshops 3 & 4,Lviv, 27 & 28 March 1996) & in 1998 it is
8% (according to Jonathan P. Deason, Janelle D. Daane Water metering policies in
the former Soviet Union: lessons from Lviv, Ukraine 1998).So the increase is almost
0.9%.So the water consumption in 1995 is 21000 m/day & thus (21000*365 =
7665000).So basing on this for 2011 (7733985+ 7733985*(12-8)/100) it will be
8043344
Table 2 shows that water consumption in 2014 is 8003128 m/day & increases in
every 10 year as the industry is increasing after 10 years. So in 2054 it is estimated
approximately 9588882 m/day. Figure 5 is showing the percentage of water
consumption in every 10 years where it shows that in 2054 it increase up to 13%.So
it is assumed as the industry will be grow approximately up to 30. Percentage of
increase in industry was almost 7.1% in 1995 (Report on Lviv Vodokanal Workshops
3 & 4, Lviv, 1996) and 8% by (Jonathan P. Deason, Janelle D. Daane, 1998).
Table 2:

Future estimation of the increase of water consumption in accordance with the

increase of Industry after 2014 until 2054.

- 35 -

Year

Water Used by Industry (m)

2011

8043344

2014

8003128

2024

8283237

2034

8697399

2044

9132269

2054
9588882
According to World Bank percentage of GDP in accordance with Industry (20082014), it is stated that in 2014 the percentage is 11.5% and on the basis of this we
are assuming that the industry will grow in future & the percentage of increase will be
almost as presented in table 2. Figure 5 is designed using the data from table 2.

Water Consumption of Industry

1995
1998
13%

2011

12%

2014

13%

12%

13%

12%

2024
2034

13%

Figure 5:

12%

2044
2054

Future estimation of the increase of water consumption in accordance with the

increase of Industry after 2014 until 2054.

- 37 -

2.3

Water Losses

2.3.1

Preliminary remarks

These are the losses or inefficiencies in water supply system while transporting water
from its sources (Lakes, Dams, Ground water etc.) to its consumers (households,
industry, hospitals, schools etc.). Its the major problem in developing countries and
also where infrastructure is old. It is a problem, which is not apparent thats why
normally less care is taken in this matter. Politicians are usually seen in media while
inaugurating new treatment plants which have a worth of thousands of Euros but less
or no attention is paid on the old water supply pipes buried in the ground and
leakages from them. In the late 1990s the International Water Association (IWA) set
up a Task Force for developing international terminology and a set of performance
indicators for water loss (Pro Wat- The basic water loss book-2008).
Similar situation is in the City of Lviv which is located along the basin divide between
Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. The Lviv water supply is a complex engineering
structure that was founded about 100 years ago. Lviv Vodokanal, LVK (Lviv Water
and Wastewater Company's), supplies water and collects and treats wastewater for
800,000 people of the city of Lviv. Only 30% of the consumers in Lviv area has
continuous water supply due to steep topography and excessive leakages (SWECO
International design review report-2004). According to report of Ukraine-Lviv water
and wastewater Project Environmental Management Plan -November 2000, the
level of water production is expected to decrease from 354,000 m 3/d (2000) to
239000 m3/d (2010) due to water losses in the system.

Table 3: The increase in total length of pipe and growth in population with respect to

year, in past. Data taken from Ukraine- summary report on Vodokanal workshop 3, 4
(1996)

- 39 -

Year
1939

Population
318100

Total Pipe length

202

1946
1970
1985

165000
563600
734800

202
700
1300

1995

831200

1500

Water Supply Distribution (% )

Communal; 29.7
Residential; 55.1

Industrial; 7.1
Budget Organisations; 7.4

Figure 6: Shows the water supply distribution to different consumption groups. The consumer
group is divided in to household, industry, communal and budget organizations according to
Ukraine- summary report on Vodokanal workshop 3, 4 (1996).

2.3.2

Current state of water losses in Lviv area

Based on the situation as discussed above the scheduled period of water supply is 6
hours per day (3 hours in the morning and 3 hours in the evening). However there
are many technical problems which are responsible for the current situation like
limited water resources, much more energy required to convey water and excessive
usage and leakage. The information as

mentioned in handouts given during

workshop 3: Lviv Vodokanal operations(1996) states that, The

Water losses or

leakage in the water supply system amounts to 98000 cubic meters per day, or 24%
of the 412000 cubic meters drawn from the well fields. Thus the amount of water that
reaches Lviv is only 295000 cubic meters per day. The problem is determining the

- 41 -

actual water consumption and water losses because of no metering system. The only
way to estimate these parameters is by energy consumption for delivering water.
According to the survey conducted by COWI (leading consulting group) on the
consumption of water in Lviv (workshop 4 LVFA 1996). A sample of 500 households
and 50 industrial enterprises and institutions in Lviv were polled. According to this
survey the results are summarized as, two third of the population have a water
supply for less than 6 hours per day while only 20% have water supply 24 hours per
day. 70% are unsatisfied or very unsatisfied with the situation, while 30% are satisfied
or very satisfied. Almost 60% indicate a continuous 24-hour water supply as their
preferred improvement. 53% are willing to pay for a water tank that would ensure
them a 24 hour supply of water.
The situation today about water supply system in Lviv city is still more or less the
same as was 15 years back. No proper attention is being paid to improve the
situation.
2.3.3

Future scenario

According to the experts involved in Vodokanal project for improvement in Lviv water
system they suggested to make Vodokanal project much successful so that it can
have the capacity to supply 24 hours/day water supply to consumers (Lviv water
supply system description by Dr. Buros and Ms.Hipp of CH2M Hill). In the past many
projects were launched to ensure 24 hour water supply and to reduce the losses but
none of them was satisfactory. Mr. Kompaniiets head of Lviv Vodokanals
production engineering gave his opinion: VODA 98 program was unsuccessful and
four other programs were also failed due to the lack of funding.
Table 2: Percentage of water losses from the water supply system. Data taken from
Environmental policy and Technology Project report, page 36 (March1996).

- 43 -

Water Losses for Lviv City

Type

Current reported

Consultant's guess
6-hr (Current)

24-hr (Future)

Transmission

14%

5-10%

5-19%

Distribution

10%

20-30%

30-50%

Table 4 shows the current reported values and consultants guess in current (6hr
water supply) and future (24hr water supply) situation about transmission and
distribution of water losses in Lviv City. Overall losses reported were 24% and there
are more losses in transmission i-e 14% than distribution losses of water (10%). The
current reported value of transmission loss is little higher than consultants guess of
current 6-hr water supply. The reason for this higher value reported seems to be
based on deteriorating infrastructure and to be on safer side while giving information
to public.
As mentioned in the first section of our report the population of Lviv including both
urban and rural population is not increasing therefore, the future water demand for
domestic use does not seems to be increase. On other hand with the passage of
time and also for the sake of development there is a need of growth in industry and it
requires more water consumption. The main aim of Lviv water system authority is to
provide 24 hour water supply but there are much water losses and other technical
issues. The supply of water can be increased further by increasing pressure but there
will be more leakage and hence more water losses in the system as said by
(Dr.Buros and Ms Hipp experts of Lviv water supply system). To increase the quality
- 45 -

of life and for future industrial use there is need to put sincere efforts to reduce water
losses.
In an article published in one of the major western Ukrainian regional newspaper
(1996), the situation of water supply in Lviv city is described as: water is transported
from a long distance and the equipment is both out of date and ineffective. The water
mains in new district are made of inappropriate materials, practically they are rusted
through and falling apart. The situation is where inside of the main is more
deteriorating than outside due to aggressive matter saturated with Hydrogen
Sulphide. The losses in water are observed at every stage like well fields, water
mains, residential buildings through broken plumbing.
It is clear from the situation as mentioned above, that water losses or transmission
losses are the main problem in water supply. Currently the water losses with 6 hour
water supply are 25-40% and in future with same infrastructure and equipment with
24 hour water supply the losses will be 35-60% (consultants guess). For our analysis,
we will run the WEAP model using 30% losses in our first scenario and 50 % losses
for future scenario, the selected range for our analysis i.e. 2014 to 2050. Further, the
third scenario is used if 24 hours water supply and losses reduced to 20%, in case if
some serious efforts are done in future. Although as discussed previously it is a long
time process which will take decades to make the situation better. Even currently
there is much less recovery of bills for the facilities provided to residents and industry
for water supply. The reason for less cost recover are water losses, inadequate
metering, no or less maintenance, and inappropriate water pricing (Volume 1 Lviv
Vodokanal: Pricing 1996).

- 47 -

Results and Discussion

For the analysis of current and future water supply services in Lviv area different
scenarios are considered. The basic parameters which are changed and justified in
this report are population, per capita water supply (urban and rural), and industrial
water consumption and transmission losses. Three different scenarios of 37 year
time span (2014-2050) are run using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system)
model. The scheme used in WEAP consists of Lviv city, village and Industry. Ground
water is the basic source for water supply. Lviv city has an additional connection or
transmission line from Busk groundwater while industry and village relies on ground
water. The per capita water consumption in village is assumed less than city. The
model is calibrated by using actual measured time series of discharge (2000-2010) at
gauging station of Poltva River. The remaining parameters (groundwater, river
geometry, reach length, climate etc.) are same as used for the calibration.

Figure 7:

Schematic view of concerned area in WEAP model.

- 49 -

3.1

Scenario descriptions:

To determine the water supply required the first scenario is considered with actual
situation and it is considered that the situation of system is more or less the same in
future, there is no further development in future. As discussed in previous sections
that the aim of Vodokanal project is 24 hours water supply but in scenario 1 the water
supply will remain 6 hours in future also. The parameter for population used is same
as justified in section 1 i.e. Population. Per-capita water supply for urban area is
used as mentioned in section 2 i.e. Water Supply. The development of industry as
discussed in section 3 i.e. Industry, and the justified values from this section are
used in our model. The water losses throughout the considered time span are 30%
as justified in section 4 i.e. water losses. These losses are taken and distributed
(proportionately) in such a way that the water is lost from system while delivering to
consumers (industry, city, and village).
In scenario 2, the water consumption from 2014 to 2034 is taken in the same way as
in scenario 1 but it is considered that after 2034 the water will be supplied for 24
hours and the water required will increase to 200 liters per capita per person. Due to
the increase in water supply there will also be more losses of water in the system.
The infrastructure is old and all the defects are there as discussed in preliminary
sections of this report. Therefore the water losses are taken to be 50% during 24
hours water supply and also it is the guess of consultants that the losses range will
be 40-60% in future as mentioned in Environmental policy and Technology report
page (March-1996). Industry values used are same as in scenario 1.
In scenario 3, it is considered that there will be rapid development and proper
attention will be paid to improve the old and deteriorated infrastructure. After 2025,
the water supply authorities will ensure 24 hours water supply to city and also village.
It is the case when everything gets better and water losses will reduces to 20%.
- 51 -

Table 5: Parameters and assumptions used to run the model under different
scenarios

Parameters

Units

Period

years

Scenario
1

Scenario2

Scenario3

Total Losses in System2035-

Water Supply
Assumption
Population
Losses (%)
Water Supply

60

Hours
(hrs.)
Number
40
(no)
50

30

l/ca./per
20 son

2014-50

2014-34

50

2014-24

202450

24

24

Values in Section 2.1.3 (Population), Figure 2

Section
2.2.3,
Table 1

Section
2.2.3,
Table 1

s cenario 1

200

Section
s cenario 2
2.2.3,s cenario 3200
Table 1

Meter
cube
Values in Section 2.3.3 (Industry), Table 2
0
3)
(m
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

10

Industry
Water Losses

30

Year

30

50

30

20

The figure below shows the total water losses in the system and used in WEAP
model under different scenarios. Industrial growth is same in all scenarios.

Figure 8:

The total water losses in the system under different scenarios.

- 53 -

Groundwater

Storage
Capacity
(m*1mio)
Initial Storage
(m*1mio)
Hydraulic
Conductivity
(m/day)
Physical

River

Inflows
And
Outflows
Physical

Specific Yield
Horizontal
Distance (m)
Wetted Depth
(m)
Storage at
River Level
(m*1mio)
Method
Reach Length
(GW) (m)
Distance
Marker (km)
(Tailflowpoint)
Flow stage
With

Poltva

750

15000

375

7500

3.3

3.3

0.35

0.35

2000

5000

150

3000

Model GW-SW flows

3,000
53,000

56
Poltva
Poltva

FlowStageWidthCurve( 0, 0, 10;
1.5, 0.6, 10; 6, 1.5, 10; 15, 2.7,
10; 30, 4.2, 12; 45, 5.1, 15; 60, 6,
18 )

Table 6: Ground water and River parameters used in the WEAP model

- 55 -

3.2

Water Supply Demand and Delivery to Lviv City

Figure 9:

Comparison of Water supply required from 2014 to 2050 by Lviv city under
three scenarios.

Figure 9 shows that from 2014 to 2023 in all three scenarios the water required by
Lviv city is same i.e. 6.95 million m^3. In scenario 1 (condition as usual) the water
supply is decreasing gradually after 2023, it is the same trend as was seen from
1999 to 2010 of water consumption reduction per capita. Same is the situation in
scenario 2 after 2033 the water supply increases to 9.35 million m^3 due to 24 hours
water supply and more per capita water allocation. In scenario 3 the required water
supply has increased to 9.37 million m^3 from 2024 because of more water to be
supplied, as a result of 24 hours water supply. The very slight decrease after
prominent increase of water supply in case of scenarios 2, 3 is due to slight decrease
in population.

- 57 -

Figure 10:

Comparison of water Supply Delivery from 2014 to 2050 for Lviv city.

The water supply delivery to Lviv city remains to 6.95 in all three scenarios from 2014
to 2023. After that in first scenario it decreases slightly depending on population
decrease. In scenario 2 from 2024 to 2033 the water supply delivery will be 5.78
million m^3 due to decrease in population and after 2033 the water supply will
increase to 9.37 million m^3 depicting around the clock delivery. In scenario 3 due to
early and rapid development the water supply delivery will increase to 9.37 million
m^3 starting from 2024.
From the results, it can be seen that the amount of water required by city is fulfilled in
the period considered for analysis (2014 to 2014). The results seems to be realistic
because Lviv city is getting water supply from other area i-e Busk through
transmission line. Under all scenarios the requirement of Lviv city is fulfilled.

- 59 -

3.3

Water Supply Required and Delivery to Lviv Village

Figure 11:

Comparison of water supply required from 2014 to 2050 by Lviv village under
three scenarios.

Similar is the situation of increase and decrease in water supply demand by village in
Lviv area in all three scenarios with respect to time span as argued for Lviv city. The
water required by village is much less (3.7 million m^3 in 2014) than Lviv city in a
time span considered. The main reason is the less number of connections in a
households, common taps or water supply unit at distant places from house.

- 61 -

Figure 12:

Comparison of water supply delivered from 2014 to 2050 for Lviv village.

In case of Water supply delivery, except some last years all the water supply
requirement is fulfilled. In scenario 1, only in last four years the delivery is zero. In
scenario 2, the last five years delivery is zero but before that water supply delivery is
reduced in two years. In scenario three, the industry will not get any water supply in
last three years. The main reason for this non delivery as compared to Lviv city is
that, the source of water supply for Lviv village is only Lviv groundwater. Whereas,
Lviv City also gets supply from Busk ground water by transmission line from Busk.
The amount of water required by Lviv village is fulfilled in almost all years. Only there
will be a problem faced in the last 6 years of the time span especially under scenario
2 and 3. The Lviv village is not getting any supply from other area and in future its
consumption has to increase by the increase of number of water connections and
change in life style.
3.4

Water Supply Required and Delivery to Lviv Industry:

Figure 13:

Comparison of water supply required from 2014 to 2050 by Lviv City under

three scenarios.

- 63 -

The water supply demand by industry is least as compared to city and village (i.e.
0.69million m^3 in 2014). There is gradual increase in water supply requirement due
to industrial growth in Lviv area. In all three scenarios it is considered the same rate
of development.

Figure 14:

Comparison of water supply delivery from 2014 to 2050 for Lviv industry.

There is no supply to industry only for the last year of our considered time span. The
scenario 2 shows longest time period, seven years with no supply and scenario 3
with least (three) un-delivered years. However, scenario 1 has last four years with no
delivery.
Lviv Industry water requirement is lowest among city and village. The requirement is
fulfilled except in the last few years. The ground water aquifer seems to be depleting
with the passage of time. In future industry will face a water shortage.
3.5

Total Unmet Demand

The figure 15 shows that the total unmet demand which includes all the demand of
industry, city, village in all three scenarios. Scenario 1 has unmet demand from May
2047 to November 2050 with variation from 3 to 4 million m^3 in different years.
Scenario 2 has highest unmet demand starting from January 2044 to November
- 65 -

2050 with 5 million m^3 but starting with 3 million m^3.However, the scenario 3 with
total unmet demand starting from May 2047

to November 2050 having water

shortage of first 2 and then 5 million m^3.

Figure 15:

Comparison of total unmet demand in a time span considered under three

scenarios.

The results achieved from WEAP model depicts that the parameters used are

realistic and assumptions are logical. The current water supply condition of Lviv area
is that still there is only 6 hours water supply in most of the areas. The condition of
villages is even worse than city regarding water supply. The excessive water leakage
in the system from pipes ultimately becomes the part of ground water after seepage.
Therefore we can say that the old and inappropriate water supply system of Lviv Area
has not much exploit the ground water reservoir. For the next 30 to 35 years the
ground water is sufficient but after that new sources needs to be found like bank
infiltration for river water use, artificial recharge of ground water etc.

- 67 -

Summary and Conclusion

From the discussions, analysis and results it is clear that in the past the water supply
to the Lviv area has reduced. There is no proper attention paid to improve the
situation. The main reason revealed, after studying different literatures available on
Lviv is that people do not fully pay their bills, similar is the situation of industry. This
situation had made the system worse and overall efficiency has been reduced.
According to Mr. Walter Stottmann, principal engineer for the World Banks European
and Central Asian region shared his view point Consumers must pay for water
consumed, LVK should start using all legal means available in order to make
consumers pay for the water they consume. LVK should cutoff water for those who
do not pay for water. Before choosing the right project all the major problem of the
Lviv water supply must be thoroughly investigated, including specifying where there
are more water losses in transmission lines or city water network or in the consumer
faucets.
In future, it has been analyzed that under all scenarios the demand of city, village and
industry has met except in last three to six years under different scenarios. As
already discussed scenario 1 is the condition as usual with no much development
and scenario 3 with much more development and scenario 2 in between with 24
hours water after 2033. The improvement in the water supply means change in
behavior of people regarding water consumption, payment of bills and also political
efforts. In future the population is decreasing but industry is increasing although
industrial growth is not rapid up till now. There is need of water in more quantity and
good quality in future for further industrial growth and enhancing life standard. Water
losses seems the main defect in the water supply system i.e. 30 to 50%. Even by
reducing these losses the situation can be made much better.
To conclude, Lviv water supply system is complex and highly specific. The current
system is meeting the future demand except in some last few years of our time
period considered (2014-2050). The main focus should be on reducing per capita
water consumption, water losses through transmission mains, digging new wells as
- 69 -

existing wells are already very old over 40 years and to ensure collection of bills for
the services provided. In this way this complex system can be made efficient for
water supply.

- 71 -

List of references

Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds. 2008. Climate Change and Water: Technical Paper
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva: IPCC.
Brenda Lafleur, Joseph Haimowitz, Matthew Stewart, Natalia Khodko, Oleksandr Zholud, Olga Romanyuk and
Sheila Rao 2012. Lviv City Profile: Demographic, Economic, and Fiscal. Document prepared within the framework
of the International Technical Assistance Project (EBED project).
Derzhavniy Komitet Statistyky Ukrayini. (State Committee of Statistics of Ukraine), 2001. Statystychniy
schorichnyk Ukrayini za 2000 rik (Statistical yearbook of Ukraine for 2000), Kyiv, Ukraine, Tekhnika.
Derzhavniy Komitet Statistyky Ukrayini. (State Committee of Statistics of Ukraine), 2007. Statystychniy
schorichnyk Ukrayini za 2006 rik (Statistical yearbook of Ukraine for 2006), Kyiv, Ukraine, Tekhnika.
Derzhavniy Komitet Statistyky Ukrayini. (State Committee of Statistics of Ukraine), 2009. Statystychniy
schorichnyk Ukrayini za 2008 rik (Statistical yearbook of Ukraine for2008), Kyiv, Ukraine, Tekhnika.
Derzhavniy Komitet Statistyky Ukrayini. (State Committee of Statistics of Ukraine), 2011. Statystychniy
schorichnyk Ukrayini za 2006 rik (Statistical yearbook of Ukraine for 2011), Kyiv, Ukraine, Tekhnika.
Environment Policy & Technology Project 1996. (UKRAINE Summary Report on Lviv Vodokanal Workshops 3 &
4, Lviv, 27 & 28 March 1996)
Falkenmark, M and C Widstrand. 1992. Population and Water Resources: a Delicate Balance. Population
Bulletin (47) 3: 1-36
Industry of Ukraine 2007-2010, Statistical publication of Ukraine, (State statistics Service of Ukraine)
Iryna S. Petrenko, Industry of Ukraine 2007-2010. Statistical publication. State statistics Service of Ukraine
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, available at (http://mfa.gov.ua/en/about-ukraine/info/regions/6-lviv)
Natallia Cherkas, 2013, Structural Shifts in the export & Industrial Production effects In Ukraine. (The 7th
Professor Aleksander Zelias International Conference on Modelling and Forecasting of Socio-Economic
Phenomena) page- 7
Population Action International (PAI). 2004. People in the Balance Update 2004: Population and Natural
Resources at the Turn of the Millennium. Washington, DC: PAI.
Sweco International 2004: Design Review Report Lviv Vodokanal, Water and Wastewater Project, WWTP
Technical Assistance Services
State Statistics Service of Ukraine documents publishing, Data for Lviv area population (2004-2014) available at
http://ukrstat.org/en.
The World Bank Dataset, 2014 (Lviv Region), percentage of GDP in accordance of Industry (2008-2014).available
at (http://search.worldbank.org) & can be accesed also in
(http://search.worldbank.org/all?qterm=industry+lviv&title=&filetype=&_Top/topic=Water+Resources)
Ukraine Regional dataset, October 2013, data for Lviv Industry index (2009-2013).available
(http://knoema.com/mmvwlid/ukraine-regional-dataset-october-2013)
Ukraine today, Lviv Region, 2014, available (http://www.rada.com.ua/eng/RegionsPotential/Lviv)
Jonathan P. Deason, Janelle D. Daane Water metering policies in the former Soviet Union: lessons from Lviv,
Ukraine (Page 2)

- 73 -

at

Lviv Vodokanal design review report (water and wastewater project WWTP Technical Assistance Services) by
SWECO International July 2004.
Optimization of O &M at Lviv WWTP Final Report from visit no 1, 2 and 3 at WWTP in Lviv (26-05-2009) by
SWECO Environment AB- water and Wastewater
Pro Wat- The basic water loss book (A guide to the water loss reduction strategy and application Part 1) 2008.
Environment Policy and Technology Project (Ukraine summary report on Lviv Vodokanal workshops 3 & 4) 27 &
28 March 1996

- 75 -

2
Figure 1:

List of Figures
Average population of Lviv area from January February (2004-2014). Data obtained
from State

Statistics Service

of

Ukraine documents publishing,

available at

http://ukrstat.org/en......................................................................................................... 10
Figure 2:

Population estimation for Lvov area from 2014-2054, based on the average urban & rural
population (January-February) decrease within 10 years period from 2004-2014 (see
Figure 1). Data for 2014 obtained from State Statistics Service of Ukraine documents
publishing, available at http://ukrstat.org/en....................................................................11

Figure 3:

The main industrial products in Lviv Ukraine & trends of series. (Structural shifts in the
exports & industrial production effect of Ukraine, Natalia Cherkas).................................16

Figure 4:

Rate of increase or decrease of industry.........................................................................16

Figure 5:

Future estimation of the increase of water consumption in accordance with the increase
of Industry after 2014 until 2054......................................................................................18

Figure 6:

Future estimation of the increase of water consumption in accordance with the increase
of Industry after 2014 until 2054......................................................................................19

Figure 7:

Schematic view of concerned area in WEAP model........................................................23

Figure 8:

The total water losses in the system under different scenarios.......................................25

Figure 9:

Water supply required from 2014 to 2050 by Lviv city under three scenarios.................25

Figure 10:

Water Supply Delivery from 2014 to 2050 for Lviv city....................................................26

Figure 11:

Water supply required from 2014 to 2050 by Lviv village under three scenarios.............27

Figure 12:

Water supply delivered from 2014 to 2050 for Lviv village.............................................27

Figure 13:

Water supply required from 2014 to 2050 by Lviv City under three scenarios.................28

Figure 14:

Water supply delivery from 2014 to 2050 for Lviv industry.............................................28

- 77 -

Figure 15:

Total unmet demand in a time span considered in three scenarios................................29

- 79 -

List of Tables

Table 1:

Future water consumption in liters per capita per day.....................................................14

Table 2:

Future estimation of the increase of water consumption in accordance with the increase
of Industry after 2014 until 2054......................................................................................17

Table 3:

Total distribution pipe length with Population in past.......................................................19

Table 4:

Percentage of losses from the water supply system.......................................................21

Table 5:

Parameters and assumptions used to run the model under different scenarios26

Table 6:

Ground water and River parameters used in the WEAP model..27

- 81 -