Plant Archives Vol. 12 No. 2, 2012 pp.

1093-1100

ISSN 0972-5210

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS FOR ESTIMATION OF ANNUAL ONE DAY

MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF JHALARAPATAN AREA OF RAJASTHAN,
INDIA
Bhim Singh*, Deepak Rajpurohit, Amol Vasishth and Jitendra Singh
College of Horticulture and Forestry, MPUAT Campus, Jhalarapatan, Jhalawar - 326 023 (Rajasthan), India.

Abstract
The daily rainfall data of 39 years (1973-2011) were analyzed to determine the annual one day maximum rainfall of Jhalarapatan
area of Rajasthan, India. The observed values were estimated by Weibull's plotting position and expected values were
estimated by four well known probability distribution functions viz., normal, log-normal, log-Pearson type-III and Gumbel.
The expected values were compared with the observed values and goodness of fit were determined by chi-square (2) test.
The results showed that the log-Pearson type-III distribution was the best fit probability distribution to forecast annual one
day maximum rainfall for different return periods. Based on the best fit probability distribution, the minimum rainfall of 44.74
mm in a day can be expected to occur with 99 per cent probability and one year return period and maximum of 252.98 mm
rainfall can be received with one per cent probability and 100 year return period. The results of this study would be useful for
agricultural scientists, decision makers, policy planners and researchers for agricultural development and constructions of
small soil and water conservation structures, irrigation and drainage systems in humid south-eastern plain of the Rajasthan,
India.
Key words : ADMR, return period, frequency, probability distribution.

Introduction
Rainfall is one of the most important natural input
resources to crop production and its occurrence and
distribution is erratic, temporal and spatial variations in
nature. Most of the hydrological events occurring as
natural phenomena are observed only once. One of the
important problem in hydrology deals with the interpreting
past records of hydrological event in terms of future
probabilities of occurrence. Analysis of rainfall and
determination of annual maximum daily rainfall would
enhance the management of water resources applications
as well as the effective utilization of water resources
(Subudhi, 2007). Probability and frequency analysis of
rainfall data enables us to determine the expected rainfall
at various chances (Bhakar et al., 2008). Such information
can also be used to prevent floods and droughts, and
applied to planning and designing of water resources
related to engineering such as reservoir design, flood
control work and soil and water conservation planning
*Author for correspondence: E-mail: bhimsingh1@gmil.com

(Agarwal et al., 1988 and Dabral et al., 2009). Though

the rainfall is erratic and varies with time and space, it is
commonly possible to predict return periods using various
probability distributions (Upadhaya and Singh, 1998).
Therefore, probability analysis of rainfall is necessary
for solving various water management problems and to
access the crop failure due to deficit or excess rainfall.
Scientific prediction of rains and crop planning done
analytically may prove a significant tool in the hands of
farmers for better economic returns (Bhakar et al., 2008).
Frequency analysis of rainfall data has been attempted
for different return period (Bhakar et al., 2006; Barkotulla
et al., 2009; Nemichandrappa et al., 2010; Manikandan
et al., 2011 and Vivekanandan, 2012). Probability and
frequency analysis of rainfall data enables us to determine
the expected rainfall at various chances. The probability
distribution functions most commonly used to estimate
the rainfall frequency are normal, log-normal, log-Pearson
type-III and Gumbel distributions. Kumar (2000) and
Singh (2001) concluded that the log-normal distribution is
the best probability model for predicting annual maximum

1094

Bhim Singh et al.

daily rainfall for Ranichauri (Tehri-Garhwal) and Tandong

(Sikkim), respectively. Kumar et al. (2007) predicted
annual maximum rainfall and inferred that log-Pearson
type-III probability distribution function can be used to
design hydraulic and soil and water conservation
structures at Almora and similar places in Uttarakhand.
Subudhi (2007) found that normal distribution is the best
fit for predicting the annual maximum daily rainfall of
Chakapada block of Kandhamal district in Orissa. There
is no widely accepted procedure to forecast the one day
maximum rainfall (Barkotulla et al., 2009). In the present
study, an attempt was made to determine the statistical
parameters and annual one day maximum rainfall
(ADMR) at various probability levels using four
probability distribution functions, viz., normal, log-normal,
log-Pearson type-III and Gumbel distribution.

Materials and Methods

Jhalarapatan area is situated in the humid southeastern plain zone-V of the Jhalawar district of Rajasthan
state at 240 33' N latitude and 760 10' E longitude with an
elevation of 426.72 m above mean sea level covering an
area of 1282 km2. The mean annual rainfall was 921.5
mm which distributed in 38 rainy days. Area receives 92
per cent of annual of the rainfall during south-west
monsoon i.e. from June to September. The study area
has the expansion of fertile plain having rich black-cotton
soil and is watered dominantly by Ahu and Kalisindh
rivers. The annual mean, maximum and minimum monthly
relative humidity of the region are 69%, 91% (August)
and 40% (April), respectively. The annual mean,
maximum and minimum monthly mean daily temperatures
in the district are 27.5C, 48.8C (May) and 5.5C
(February), respectively.

present study.
Return period
Return period or recurrence interval is the average
interval of time within which any extreme event of given
magnitude will be equalled or exceeded at least once
(Patra, 2001). Return period was calculated by Weibull's
plotting position formula (Chow, 1964) by arranging one
day maximum daily rainfall in descending order giving
their respective rank as:
T=

N +1
R

(1)

Where, N - the total number of years of record and

R- the rank of observed rainfall values arranged in
descending order.
Weibull's plotting position formula was used for
computation of observed ADMR amounts at the return
periods of 1.01, 1.05, 1.11, 1.25, 2, 4, 5, 10, 20 and 40
years.
Frequency analysis using frequency factors
Frequency or probability distribution helps to relate
the magnitude of extreme hydrologic events like floods,
droughts and severe storms with their number of
occurrences such that their chance of occurrence with
time can be predicted successfully. Observed values of
ADMR can be obtained statistically through the use of
the Chow's general frequency formula. The formula
expresses the frequency of occurrence of an event in
terms of a frequency factor, Kr , which depends upon the
distribution of particular event investigated. Chow (1951)
has shown that many frequency analyses can be reduced
to the form

Data collection and analysis

X T = X (1 + CV KT )

Daily rainfall data of Jhalarapatan raingauge station

has been used for the present investigation. Time series
rainfall records for the period of 39 years (1973 to 2011)
have been collected from Water Resource Department,
Government of Rajasthan, Sinchai Bhawan, Jaipur.
Annual maximum daily rainfall was sorted out from these
data (table 1) and using statistical techniques for data
analysis. The statistical behavior of any hydrological series
can be described on the basis of certain parameters. The
commonly used procedures of statistical analysis as
followed by Gupta and Kapoor (2002) have been followed
herein. The computation of statistical parameters includes
mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and
coefficient of skewness were taken as measures of
variability of hydrological series. All the parameters have
been used to describe the variability of rainfall in the

Where, Xr is maximum value of event corresponding

(2)

to return period T; X is mean of the annual maximum

series of the data of length N years, Cv is the coefficient
of variation and Kr is the frequency factor which depends
upon the return period T and the assumed frequency
distribution. The expected value of annual maximum daily
rainfall for the same return periods were computed for
determining the best probability distributions. Calculations
of frequency factor of the four distributions namely
normal, log-normal, log-Pearson type-III and Gumbel are
discussed as

Probability Analysis for Estimation of Annual One Day Maximum Rainfall of Jhalarapatan Area of Rajasthan, India 1095

Distribution

Probability density function

f ( x) =

Normal

1 x

Log-normal (y = ln x)

f ( x) =

Log-Pearson (y = ln x)

f ( x) =

Gumbel

f ( x) =

x 2

1 y y

2 y

1 y c

1 y c 2

e
a y (b) a

x
1
x
exp
exp

For normal distribution, the frequency factor 'Kr' can

be expressed by following equation (Chow, 1988)

xT

0<x<

y = y , y = Sx

0<x<

= x , = Sx

< x <

= x + 0.5772 , =

( 0 < p 0.50 )

(4)

When, p > 0.5, 1-p is substituted for p in equation (4)

and the value of z is computed by equation (5) is given a
negative sign (Bhakar et al., 2006). The frequency factor
KT for the normal distribution is equal to z, as mentioned
above.

(8)

Log-Pearson type-III
In log-Pearson type-III distribution, the value of
variate 'X' (rainfall) is transformed to logarithm (base
10). The expected value of rainfall 'XT' can be obtained
by the following formulae
and

L 2.515517 + 0.802853w + 0.010328w OP (5)

z = wM
N1 + 1.432788w + 0.189269w + 0.001308w Q

yT y

The value of frequency factor 'KT' can be computed

using equation (5) or found from the standard normal
distribution table.

XT

Then calculating z using the equation (5)

Sx 6

Where, ' Y ' is the mean and 'Cvy' is the coefficient

of variation of Y.

(3)

where ,
1

= x , = Sx

and K T =

This is the same as the standard normal variate z.

The value of z corresponding to an exceedence of
p(p = 1/T) can be calculated by finding the value of an
intermediate variable w:

L F 1 IO
w = MlnG J P
N H p KQ

<x<
2

Normal distribution

KT =

Equation for the parameters in terms

of the sample moment

1
e 2
2

Range

= Antilog X

(9)

Log X = M + KTS

(10)

where, 'M' is the mean of logarithmic values of

observed rainfall and 'S' is the standard deviation of these
values. Frequency factor KT is taken from Benson (1968)
corresponding to coefficient of skewness (C s) of
transformed variate as
KT =

2
CS

C C
z S S + 1 1
6
6

(11)

Log-normal distribution

Gumbel distribution

For log-normal distribution, it is assumed that Y= ln

X is normally distributed [the value of variate 'X' (rainfall)
is replaced by its natural logarithm]. The expected value
of rainfall 'XT', at return period T, can be obtained from
the relation

In Gumbel distribution, the expected rainfall 'XT' is

computed by the following formula

XT = exp (YT)

(6)

YT = Y( 1 + CVY KT )

(7)

X T = X (1 + CV KT )

(12)

Where, X is mean of the observed rainfall, CV is the

coefficient of variation; KT - frequency factor which is
calculated by the formula given by Gumbel (1958) as

1096

Bhim Singh et al.

T
6
KT =

0.5772 + ln ln

T 1

(13)

Testing the goodness of fit of probability

distribution
The expected values of maximum rainfall were
calculated by four well known probability distributions,
viz., normal, log-normal, log-Pearson type-III and Gumbel
distribution at different selected probabilities i.e. 99, 95,
90, 80, 50, 25, 20, 10, 5, 2.5, 2, 1 and 0.5 per cent levels.
Among these four distributions, the best fit distributions
decided by chi-square test for goodness of fit to observed
values. The chi-square test statistic is given by the
equation (14)
k

2 =
i =1

(Oi Ei )
Ei

(14)

Where, Oi is the observed rainfall and Ei is the

expected rainfall and will have chi-square distribution with
(N - k -1) degree of freedom (d.f.). The best probability
distribution function was determined by comparing Chisquare values obtained from each distribution and
selecting the function that gives smallest chi-square value
(Agrawal et al. 1988). If Cal. Tab for (N - k -1) d.f. then
the difference between observed and expected values is
considered to be significant.
Regression model
Regression models were developed for estimating
the ADMR to return periods in the present study and
found the coefficient of determination (R2).
2

Results and Discussion

One day maximum daily rainfall corresponding date
for the period of 39 years (1973 to 2011) is presented in
table 1. The maximum (231.6 mm) and minimum (45.6
mm) annual one day maximum rainfall was recorded
during the year 2000 (21-July) and 2008 (6-Aug),
respectively. This indicates that the mostly fluctuations
was observed during the decade 2000-11. The average
for these 39 years rainfall was found to be 111.84 mm. It
was also observed that 17 years (43.6%) received one
day maximum daily rainfall above the average (fig. 1),
however, no general trend in rainfall occurrence was
observed during the study period. The distribution of one
day maximum rainfall received during different months
in a year is presented in fig. 2. From the figure, it can be
seen that July received the highest amount of one day
maximum rainfall (46%) followed by August (38%) and
September (13%). This is due to fact that the study area
received most of its rain from southwest monsoon (92

Table 1 : One day maximum daily rainfall for the period of 1973
to 2011.
S.
no. Year Date
1. 1973 23-Jul

Rainfall S.
(mm)
no. Year Date
128.0
21. 1993 17-Jul

Rainfall
(mm)
80.2

2. 1974 20-Aug 140.0

22. 1994 1-Jul

105.2

3. 1975 2-Sep

75.3

23. 1995 3-Sep

68.4

4. 1976 8-Jul

64.2

24. 1996 21-Aug 101.4

5. 1977 22-Jul

83.0

25. 1997 7-Aug

85.4

6. 1978 4-Jul

122.6

26. 1998 12-Jul

72.6

7. 1979 7-Aug

76.2

27. 1999 30-Jul

164.2

8. 1980 22-Jun

76.4

28. 2000 21-Jul

231.6

9. 1981 21-Jul

62.8

29. 2001 2-Jul

186.0

10. 1982 17-Aug 125.4

30. 2002 8-Aug

54.2

11. 1983 1-Sep

31. 2003 16-Sep 83.4

122.0

12. 1984 10-Aug 147.0

32. 2004 24-Aug 136.6

13. 1985 9-Aug

173.0

33. 2005 5-Jul

14. 1986 27-Jul

230.4

34. 2006 10-Aug 178.8

133.0

15. 1987 25-Aug 198.0

35. 2007 8-Jul

67.0

16. 1988 5-Aug

100.6

36. 2008 6-Aug

45.6

17. 1989 6-Aug

80.6

37. 2009 22-Jul

152.0

18. 1990 3-Jul

69.4

38. 2010 5-Sep

51.0

19. 1991 22-Jul

75.2

39. 2011 20-Jul

91.0

20. 1992 16-Aug 124.2

per cent of annual rainfall). The average, standard

deviation, coefficient of variation and skewness of ADMR
for 39 years and their respective logarithmic
transformation is given in table 2. These statistical
parameters can be used to find the estimated one day
maximum rainfall from different probability distribution
functions.
The ADMR for the period of 39 years was plotted
against return period in years which was calculated from
Weibull's method and presented in fig. 3. Observed rainfall
were found for return periods of 1.01, 1.05, 1.11, 1.25, 2,
4, 5, 10, 20 and 40 year and presented in table 3. The
expected ADMR for different probability distributions
such as normal, log-normal, log-Pearson type-III and
Gumbel were calculated and presented in table 3 for
different return periods. The expected ADMR for
different probabilities are graphically represented in fig.
4. From the figure, it can be observed that the estimated
annual ADMR for different probability distributions are
following the same trend of observed rainfall. All four
probability distribution functions were compared by chisquare test of goodness of fit and then selecting the
function that gave the smallest chi-square value

Probability Analysis for Estimation of Annual One Day Maximum Rainfall of Jhalarapatan Area of Rajasthan, India 1097

Table 2 : Computation of statistical parameters of annual one day maximum rainfall.

Statistical parameter

Formula
1 N
Xi
N i =1

Computed value

Logarithmic transformation

111.84

2.01

Average X

c h

X=

Standard deviation ()

1 n
( X i X )2
N 1 i =1

49.035

0.185

Coefficient of variation (CV)

CV =

Standard Deviation
Mean

0.438

0.092

Coefficient of skewness (Ck)

Ck =

N 2M 3
( N 1)( N 2) 3

0.870

0.175

M3 =

1
N

(X

X )3

i =1

Table 3 : Observed and expected one day maximum rainfall at different probability levels.
S.
no.

Probability
(%)

Return Period
(years)

Observed Rainfall
(mm)

1.

99

1.01

2.

95

3.
4.

Expected Rainfall (mm)

44.4

Normal
11.97

Log Normal
43.01

Log Pearson
44.74

Gumbel
31.42

1.05

51.0

35.55

52.77

53.75

47.85

90

1.11

62.8

48.99

59.31

59.82

57.91

80

1.25

69.4

70.58

71.52

71.30

71.60

5.

50

100.6

111.84

102.32

101.05

103.79

6.

25

140.0

144.54

135.88

134.89

137.40

7.

20

152.0

152.48

145.57

144.93

147.11

8.

10

10

186.0

172.70

173.48

174.53

175.79

9.

20

230.4

188.14

198.36

201.75

203.30

10.

2.5

40

231.6

200.08

220.02

226.07

230.28

11.

50

203.31

226.27

233.20

238.90

12.

100

211.72

243.40

252.98

265.59

13.

0.5

200

218.07

257.19

269.15

292.17

Table 4 : Chi-square values at different probability levels for different distributions.

S. no.

Normal

Log-normal

Log-Pearson

Gumbel

1.

Probability
99

Return Period (years)

1.01

87.85

0.04

0.00

5.36

2.

95

1.05

6.72

0.06

0.14

0.21

3.

90

1.11

3.89

0.21

0.15

0.41

4.

80

1.25

0.02

0.06

0.05

0.07

5.

50

1.13

0.03

0.00

0.10

6.

25

0.14

0.12

0.19

0.05

7.

20

0.00

0.28

0.34

0.16

8.

10

10

1.02

0.90

0.75

0.59

9.

20

9.49

5.18

4.07

3.61

10.

2.5

40

4.96

0.61

0.14

0.01

Cal

115.23

7.50

5.84

10.57

1098

Bhim Singh et al.

150

Rainfall (mm)

100
50
0
-50

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

-100
year

Fig. 1 : Deviation from the average of one day maximum annual rainfall during 1973-2011.
September
13%

August
38%

June
3%

July
46%

Fig. 2 :Distribution of one day maximum annual rainfall in a

year.

determined the best probability distribution function. The

chi-square values (table 4) for normal, log-normal, logPearson type-III and Gumbel distributions were 115.23,
7.50, 5.84 and 10.57, respectively. Log-Pearson type-III
distribution gave the lowest calculated chi-square value
among the four probability distributions. Hence, logPearson type-III has been found the best probability
distribution for predicting ADMR for Jhalarapatan area
of Rajasthan. According to this distribution, in a day the
minimum rainfall of 44.74 mm rainfall can be expected
to occur with 99 per cent probability and one year return
period and maximum of 252.98 mm rainfall can be
received with one per cent probability and 100 year return
period. A maximum of 101.05 mm rainfall is expected to
occur at every 2 years which is approaching average
ADMR. It is generally recommended that 2 to 100 years
is sufficient return period for soil and water conservation
measures, construction of dams, irrigation and drainage
works (Bhakar et al., 2006). Regression models were

developed from the observed ADMR against different

return period by using Weibull's method. The trend
analysis (fig. 3.) for prediction of one day maximum
rainfall for different return period was carried out and it
is found that the exponential trend line gives better
coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.9782 and the
equation is: Y = 48.905 e0.0369X where, Y-ADMR, mm
and X-Return period, Year.

Conclusion
The mean value of ADMR was found to be 111.84
mm with standard deviation and coefficient of variation
of 49.035 and 0.438, respectively. The coefficient of
skewness was observed to be 0.870. July month received
the highest amount of one day maximum rainfall (46%)
followed by August (38%) and September (13%). The
frequency analysis of ADMR for identifying the best fit
probability distribution can be studied for four probability
distributions such as normal, log-normal, log-Pearson typeIII and Gumbel by using Chi-square goodness of fit test.
It was observed that all the three probability distribution
functions fitted significantly except normal distribution.
Log-Pearson type-III distribution was found to be the
best fitted to ADMR data by Chi-square test for goodness
of fit. A maximum of 101.05 mm rainfall is expected to
occur at every 2 years and 50 per cent probability which
is approaching mean ADMR. For a recurrence interval
of 100 years and one per cent probability, the annual one
day maximum rainfall is 252.98 mm. Regression model
for ADMR was developed by using Weibull's method to
predict the rainfall for different return period. The
coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.9782. This study
gives an idea about the prediction of ADMR rainfall to
design the small and medium hydraulic and soil and water
conservation structures, irrigation, drainage works,

Probability Analysis for Estimation of Annual One Day Maximum Rainfall of Jhalarapatan Area of Rajasthan, India 1099
Y = 48.905e 0.03 69 X
R2 = 0.9782

250

R ainfall, m m

200
150
100

1.026
1.053
1.081
1.111
1.143
1.176
1.212
1.25
1.290
1.333
1.379
1.429
1.481
1.538
1.6
1.667
1.739
1.818
1.905
2
2.105
2.222
2.353
2.5
2.667
2.857
3.077
3.333
3.636
4
4.444
5
5.714
6.667
8
10
13.333
20
40

50

Return period, Y ear

Fig. 3 : Annual one day maximum rainfall vs return period by Weibull's method.
Observed

Normal

Log Normal

Log Pearson

Gumbel
350

250
200
150
100

Rainfall, mm

300

50
0
0.5

2.5

10

20

25

50

80

90

95

99

Probability, %

Fig. 4 : Estimated annual one day maximum rainfall at different probability levels.

vegetative waterways and field diversions. This study

also helps in developing cropping plan and estimating
design flow rate for maximizing crop production.

Bhakar, S. R., M. Iqbal, Mukesh Devanda, Neeraj Chhajed and

A. K. Bansal (2008). Probability analysis of rainfall at Kota.
Indian Journal of Agricultural Research, 42 : 201 -206.

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