Introduction of Statistics

Topic
Probability

Submitted by: Awais Abdullah

Submitted to: Madam Hira
Date: 22-06-2012
Cecos University of IT Emerging Sciences
Cecos Frontier College of Business
Education

PROBABILITY
INTRODUCTION

The word probability has two basic meanings (I) a quantitative measure of
uncertainty and (ii) a measure of degree of belief in a particular statement or
problem.
Probability and statistics are fundamentally interrelated. Probability is often
called the vehicle of statistics. The area of inferential statistics in which we are
mainly concerned with drawing inferences from experiments or situations
involving an element of uncertainly , lean heavily upon probability theory
uncertainly is also an inherent part of statistical inference as inferences are
based on a sample and a sample being a small part of larger population,
contains incomplete information. A similar type of uncertainty occurs when we
toss a coin draw a card r throw dice, etc. the uncertainty in all these cases is
measured in terms of probability.
It is always clear what we mean when we make statements of the type that it is
very likely to rain today or I have a fair chance of passing the annual
examination or a will probably win a prize etc. in each of these statements , the
natural state of uncertainty is express, but on the basis of past evidence. We
have some degree of personal belief in the truth of each statement.
The foundations of probability were laid by tow French mathematicians of the
seventieth century blas Pascal (1623-1662) and Pierre De Ferment (16011665) Abraham De Moivre (1667-1754) and Pierre Simon Laplace (1749-1827).
The modern Treatment of probability theory which consists of stating a few
axioms and rules resulting from axioms, was developed during the twenties and
thirties of twentieth century. Today the probability theory has a wider field of
application and is used to make intelligent decisions in Economics Management
operations research sociology Psychology Astronomy Physics, Engineering and
Genetics where risk and uncertainty are involved.
As the probability theory these days is best understood through the application
of the modern set theory, therefore brief descriptions of the basic concepts
notation and operations of set theory that are relevant to probability are given
here.

PROBLEM
Q No: 6.16. Two good dice are rolled simultaneously. Let A denote the event
The sum show is 8 and B the event the two show the same number.

DATA:
(1,1),
(2,1),
(3,1),
(4,1),
(5,1),
(6,1),

(1,2),
(2,2),
(3,2),
(4,2),
(5,2),
(6,2),

(1,3),
(2,3),
(3,3),
(4,3),
(5,3),
(6,3),

(1,4),
(2,4),
(3,4),
(4,4),
(5,4),
(6,4),

(1,5),
(2,5),
(3,5),
(4,5),
(5,5),
(6,5),

(1,6)
(2,6)
(3,6)
(4,6)
(5,6)
(6,6)

SOLUTION:
Outcome = 6
Dice = 2

6x6=36

Event A = P(A) =

{(2,6),(3,5),(4,4),(5,3), (6,2)}

We know the formula = favorable outcome

Total Outcome
P(A) = 5_
36
Event B= P(B) =

{(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}

P(B) = favorable outcome

Total Outcome
P(B) = 6_
36
Q No: 6.18. in a single throw of two fair dice find the probability that the
product of the number on the dice is (a) between 8 and 16 (B) divisible by 4.

SOLUTION:.
Outcome= 6
Dice= 6

Event A= P(A) =

{(2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (3,3), 3,4), (3,5), (5,3), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4),

(5,2), (6,2)}
P(A)= 12
Event B= P(B)=

36

{(1,4),(2,2),(2,4),(2,6),(3,4),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),
(4,6),(5,4),(6,2),(6,4),(6,6)}
P(B) =15
36