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Whats Changed?
Target
EPS FY17E
EPS FY18E
Rating
Q2FY17
17,310
4,309
24.9
3,608
Q2FY16
15,635
3,993
25.5
3,399
YoY (%)
10.7
7.9
-65 bps
6.1
Key Financials
| Crore
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (|)
FY15
53,319
14,901
2,369
53.9
FY16
62,441
17,079
2,394
59.0
FY15
19.0
21.8
13.6
4.3
22.5
31.4
FY16
17.4
19.9
11.7
3.8
21.8
30.2
Valuation summary
P/E
Target P/E
EV / EBITDA
P/BV
RoNW (%)
RoCE (%)
Stock data
Particular
Market Capitalization (| Crore)
Total Debt
Cash and Investments
EV (| Crore)
52 week H/L
Equity capital
Face value
1M
3M
5.0
2.5
3.4
(0.5)
4.5
11.2
(0.4)
(1.7)
Research Analysts
Deepak Purswani, CFA
deepak.purswani@icicisecurities.com
Tushar Wavhal
tushar.wavhal@icicisecurities.com
Deepti Tayal
deepti.tayal@icicisecurities.com
| 1027
Quarterly Performance
Revenue
EBIT
EBIT (%)
PAT
Infosys (INFTEC)
Buy
| 1175
12 months
12%
Variance analysis
Q2FY17 Q2FY17E
Revenue
Employee expenses
Q2FY16
YoY (%)
Q1FY17
QoQ (%)
Comments
Infosys' $ revenue growth of 3.5% sequentially was well below our expectation of
3.1 2.4%
2.5
17,310
10,538
17,151
10,396
15,635
9,366
10.7
12.5
16,782
10,281
Gross Profit
Gross margin (%)
Selling & marketing costs
G&A expenses
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
6,772
39.1
897
1,142
4,733
27.3
424
4,309
6,755
39.4
943
1,166
4,645
27.1
409
4,236
6,269
40.1
843
1,075
4,351
27.8
358
3,993
8.0
-97 bps
6.4
6.2
8.8
-49 bps
18.4
7.9
6,501
38.7
920
1,134
4,447
26.5
400
4,047
4.2
38 bps
-2.5
0.7
6.4
84 bps
6.0
6.5
24.9
760
5,068
1,460
3,608
24.7
700
4,935
1,401
3,534
25.5
793
4,786
1,387
3,399
-65 bps
-4.2
5.9
5.3
6.1
24.1
753
4,800
1,362
3,437
The EBIT margin performance was better than expectation due to a better
78 bps operational efficiency
0.9
5.6
7.2
5.0 The bottomline was above our expectation
199,829
15.7
82.5
66.9
190,000
15.0
81.0
66.9
187,976
15.0
81.3
65.4
6.3
73 bps
120 bps
2.4
197,050
15.8
80.5
67.1
Key Metrics
Closing employees
LTM attrition-standalone (%)
Utilisation - IT Services (%)
Average $/|
1.4
-10 bps
200 bps
-0.3
Change in estimates
(| Crore)
Revenue
EBIT
EBIT Margin (%)
PAT
Old
70,022
17,735
25.3
14,793
EPS (|)
64.7
FY17E
New % Change
68,931
-1.6
17,021
-4.0
24.7
-69 bps
14,246
-3.7
62.3
Old
78,825
19,601
24.9
16,402
FY18E
New % Change
76,387
-3.1
19,123
-2.4
25.0
12 bps
15,792
-3.7
-3.7
71.8
69.1
-3.7
Comments
We have fine-tuned our estimates to reflect Q2FY17 results and lower guidance
Assumptions
Closing employees
Utilisation - IT Services (%
Average $/|
FY15
176,187
FY16
194,044
Current
FY17E
210,818
FY18E
225,628
Earlier
FY17E
210,818
FY18E
225,628
Comments
76.4
54.5
80.9
65.7
83.1
67.0
84.3
67.5
83.1
67.0
84.3
67.5
We believe an improvement in utilisation rate will act as a key layer for managing
the EBIT margin
Page 2
Company Analysis
Further downgrades revenue guidance to 8-9% (in CC) in FY17E
In constant currency terms, Infosys lowered its guidance to 8-9% growth
for FY17E (vs. earlier guidance of 10.5%-12%) citing a weak macro
environment and RBS deal cancellation while rupee revenue could grow
10.9%-11.9% (based on September 30 rates). We highlight that Infosys
won six deals worth US$ 1.2 billion, which is 20% higher in H1FY17 as
compared to H1FY16. Further, the company aims to achieve a quarterly
run-rate of $1 billion in TCV signings in the coming quarters. We expect
dollar revenues to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% in FY16-18E led by healthy
deal wins, improved win rates, better execution and better utilisation.
Exhibit 1: Dollar revenues may grow at 9.1% CAGR in FY16-18E vs. 9.5% CAGR in FY11-16
12000
25.8
30.0
25.0
8000
20.0
15.8
6000
2446
9501
2501
2587
10288
11317
Q4FY16
FY16
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
FY17E
FY18E
8711
FY15
2407
8249
FY14
10.0
8.3
Q3FY16
7398
FY13
5.8
8.5
15.0
8.2
2392
6994
FY12
8.7
10.9
Q2FY16
6041
FY11
5.6
5.8
9.1
2256
4000
2000
13.3
11.5
Q1FY16
$ million
10000
Dollar revenue
10.0
5.0
0.0
Growth, YoY
25.8
20.0
19
18.7 19.0
16.5
17.0 15.8
16.0
11.6
11
3.0
3
-5
FY09
5.5
-4.9
FY10
Growth, YoY
FY11
FY12
13.0
13.0
13
11.5
9.1
10.2
9.1
9.0
8.0
5.8
5.67.0
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
11.0
8.38.5
FY17E
Page 3
366
400
399
542
555
558
558
574
577
Q2FY17
500
535
Q3FY16
529
Q2FY16
600
Q1FY16
700
Q1FY17
448
300
200
100
FY16
Q4FY16
FY15
FY13
FY12
FY11
24.0
25.5
24.0
24.9
25.5
25.0
24.1
24.9
24.7
25.0
FY18E
25.9
25.8
26
FY17E
29.0
FY16
29.5
29
Q4FY16
32
23
Q2FY17
Q1FY17
Q3FY16
Q2FY16
Q1FY16
FY15
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
20
EBIT margin
Page 4
18.9
17.2
16.7
16.3
15.0
13.4
15.8
13.8
13.6
Q4FY16
16
17.0
Q3FY16
19
15.7
13
Q2FY17
Q1FY17
FY16
Q2FY16
Q1FY16
FY15
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
10
80
75
82.5 83.1
84.3
76.4
74.2
72.6
70.7
70
Page 5
FY18E
FY17E
Q2FY17
Q1FY17
FY16
Q4FY16
Q3FY16
Q2FY16
Q1FY16
FY15
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
65
Page 6
Page 7
Price
26
22
18
14
Oct-16
Oct-15
Apr-16
Apr-15
Oct-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Oct-12
Apr-13
Apr-12
Oct-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Apr-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
10
Exhibit 8: Valuation
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Sales
(| cr)
53,319
62,441
68,931
76,387
Growth
(%)
6.4
17.1
10.4
10.8
EPS
(|)
53.9
59.0
62.3
69.1
Growth
(%)
15.8
9.4
5.6
10.8
PE
(x)
19.0
17.4
16.5
14.9
EV/EBITDA
(x)
13.6
11.7
10.4
9.0
RoNW
(%)
22.5
21.8
20.7
20.6
Page 8
RoCE
(%)
31.4
30.2
29.0
28.9
90.0
1,400
80.0
1,200
70.0
60.0
50.0
800
(%)
(|)
1,000
40.0
600
30.0
400
20.0
200
10.0
0.0
Sep-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Price
May-15
Jul-15
Idirect target
Oct-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Key events
Date
Event
Jun-14
Infosys appoints Dr Vishal Sikka as the successor to the current CEO, Mr Shibulal, for a period of five years. Earlier he worked with SAP for 12 years
Oct-14
Infosys reports a stellar Q2FY15 earnings under the leadership of Dr Sikka. It also announces a 1:1 bonus issue for equity shareholders
Nov-14
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jul-16
Aug-16
Aug-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has cancelled a major contract of around $200 million with Infosys after its abandonment to float a separate standalone UK bank Williams & Glyn (W&G)
According to Infosy's management, the pace of work in innovative areas of Artificial Intelligence and open source technologies is dissapointing and only 400 of
23,000 ongoing projects is in the related areas.
In order to expand the bandwidth of the business,the company is splitting its business into 12-15 small business units, each with a revenue of $500-700 million each
with its own P&L responsibility
According to media sources, Infosys executive Vice President Sanjay Purohit resigned , making it the seventh key executive to quit since Vishal Sikka joined
Sep-16
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Top 10 Shareholders
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Name
Life Insurance Corporation of India
Gopalakrishnan (Sudha)
GIC Private Limited
OppenheimerFunds, Inc.
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A.
Invest AD
Murthy (Rohan)
HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd.
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd.
Shareholding Pattern
Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)
30-Jun-16 5.6%
128.6
0.1
30-Jun-16 3.1%
70.8
0.0
30-Jun-16 2.4%
55.0
-0.1
30-Sep-15 2.3%
51.4
-19.2
31-Aug-16 2.2%
50.2
0.3
30-Sep-16 2.2%
49.2
0.5
30-Jun-16 2.0%
46.6
-7.3
30-Jun-16 1.4%
31.8
0.0
30-Jun-16 1.3%
30.6
-2.3
30-Jun-16 1.3%
30.5
0.7
(in %)
Promoter
Public
Others
Total
Dec-15
13.08
86.43
-99.51
Mar-16
12.75
86.76
0.49
100.00
Jun-16
12.75
86.76
0.49
100.00
Value
-126.5m
-44.6m
-40.5m
-20.3m
-20.3m
Shares
-7.3m
-2.9m
-2.3m
-1.3m
-1.2m
Recent Activity
Buys
Investor name
ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd.
William Blair & Company, L.L.C.
Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Limited
Schroder Investment Management (Hong Kong) Ltd.
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd.
Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research
Value
39.8m
31.0m
13.8m
12.5m
12.2m
Shares
2.6m
1.7m
0.9m
0.7m
0.7m
Sells
Investor name
Invest AD
Fidelity Management & Research Company
HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd.
BNP Paribas Investment Partners Asia Ltd.
Union Investment Luxembourg S.A.
Page 9
Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Total operating Income
| Crore
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
(Year-end March)
53,319
62,441
68,931
76,387
Growth (%)
COGS (employee expenses)
FY15
6.4
17.1
10.4
10.8
31,814
37,639
42,036
46,418
| Crore
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
12,329
13,491
14,246
15,792
Add: Depreciation
1,069
1,459
1,677
1,833
(2,004)
(3,096)
(1,689)
(2,217)
Admin expenses
3,663
4,292
4,574
4,965
873
842
1,091
977
S&M expenses
2,941
3,431
3,622
4,049
Taxes paid
(6,751)
(5,865)
(5,808)
(6,450)
38,418
45,362
50,233
55,431
10,752
12,243
12,282
13,266
EBITDA
14,901
17,079
18,698
20,956
(Inc)/dec in Investments*
1,101
88
3,044
3,120
Growth (%)
11.1
14.6
9.5
12.1
(2,247)
(2,723)
(2,500)
(2,500)
Depreciation
1,069
1,459
1,677
1,833
(1,279)
(3,116)
544
620
Other Income
3,427
3,125
3,044
3,120
(4,935)
(6,813)
(7,220)
(8,023)
17,258
18,742
20,054
22,243
4,929
5,251
5,808
6,450
12,329
13,491
14,246
15,792
15.8
9.4
5.6
10.8
54
59
62
69
15.8
9.4
5.6
10.8
PBT
Total Tax
PAT
Growth (%)
EPS (|)
Growth (%)
Others
(4,935)
(6,813)
(7,220)
(8,023)
4,538
2,314
5,606
5,863
(121)
16
Opening Cash
25,950
30,367
32,697
38,303
Closing Cash
30,367
32,697
38,303
44,166
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Exchange difference
Balance sheet
(Year-end March)
Equity Capital
| Crore
Key ratios
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
(Year-end March)
572
1,144
1,144
1,144
FY15
54,191
60,635
67,661
75,431
EPS
53.9
59.0
62.3
69.1
54,763
61,779
68,805
76,575
Cash EPS
58.6
65.4
69.7
77.1
335.0
BV
239.6
270.3
301.0
Debt
DPS
24.5
27.0
30.0
160
256
256
256
132.9
143.1
167.6
193.2
24.7
25.0
46
115
115
115
54,969
62,150
69,176
76,946
EBIT Margin
25.9
PBT Margin
32.4
30.0
29.1
29.1
9,125
10,530
11,353
12,019
PAT Margin
23.1
21.6
20.7
20.7
Goodwill
3,091
3,764
3,764
3,764
638
985
985
985
Total Liabilities
Assets
Intangibles
Debtor days
66
66
66
66
Unbilled revenue
19
17
18
19
1,345
1,811
1,811
1,811
Creditor days
Other assets
4,864
6,501
6,501
6,501
30,367
32,697
38,303
44,166
Cash
Investment in CD
RoE
22.5
21.8
20.7
20.6
RoCE
31.4
30.2
29.0
28.9
RoIC
68.9
65.7
67.5
70.5
14.9
Trade receivables
9,713
11,330
12,557
13,915
Unbilled revenue
2,845
3,029
3,678
4,076
3,296
4,448
4,261
4,722
P/E
19.0
17.4
16.5
EV / EBITDA
13.6
11.7
10.4
9.0
3.8
3.2
2.8
2.5
975
191
191
191
47,196
51,695
58,990
67,070
EV / Net Sales
140
386
181
201
4.4
3.8
3.4
3.1
Unearned revenue
1,052
1,332
1,360
1,507
4.3
3.8
3.4
3.1
Trade payables
OCL & provisions
10,188
11,516
12,784
13,595
Solvency Ratios
11,383
13,239
14,330
15,307
Debt/EBITDA
35,813
38,456
44,660
51,763
Debt / Equity
Application of Funds
54,969
62,150
69,176
76,946
Current Ratio
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
Quick Ratio
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
Page 10
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY16 FY17E FY18E FY16 FY17E FY18E
16.6 14.5 12.5 11.2
9.2
7.8
17.1 16.6 14.9 11.6 10.9
9.5
10.6
8.3
7.4
8.1
6.4
4.9
20.2 14.1 12.8 15.5 10.0
8.7
17.8 16.9 15.2 12.1 10.7
9.3
8.7
9.9
8.9
5.4
5.4
4.8
14.9 14.1 12.3
9.5
8.6
7.6
9.3
9.6
9.0
4.6
4.3
3.7
18.3 17.0 14.5 11.2
9.3
7.4
19.1 17.8 16.2 14.6 13.1 11.8
12.2 12.4 11.1
9.1
8.0
6.7
13.3 14.2 12.8
8.6
8.7
7.1
RoCE (%)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
20.3 20.5 21.6
42.7 38.0 36.2
10.6 12.4 14.5
24.2 28.7 28.2
30.2 29.0 28.9
18.8 15.7 16.0
29.5 28.1 29.5
28.4 26.3 26.8
27.9 27.3 28.1
41.2 36.8 34.1
27.7 27.5 26.9
20.7 18.3 17.9
RoE (%)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
17.1 17.5 17.9
33.5 29.6 28.1
12.7 14.0 13.8
20.8 24.7 23.6
21.8 20.7 20.6
17.2 13.8 13.6
23.1 22.3 23.0
17.6 15.2 14.6
21.2 20.4 20.7
33.1 29.5 27.2
23.1 21.4 20.9
17.9 15.4 14.6
Page 11
RATING RATIONALE
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Page 12
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Deepak Purswani, CFA MBA (Finance), Tushar Wavhal, MBA, Deepti Tayal, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in
this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Page 13