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Overweight
Gr.
YoY(%)
1.3
-4.3
13.7
-13.9
10.3
8.0
6.2
7.3
MoM gr
YoY gr
1.3
-8.7BAL
-4.3
TVS
0.7
13.7
HMSI-2.1
22.5
10.3
10.5
M&M
-4.0
8.0
4.87.0
Hyundai
ALL
6.2
Innova, Creta, & Viatra Brezza drives Utility Vehicle (UVs) segment!
12.5
Source: Siam
Industry
HMCL
YTD gr
6.1
BAL-1.9
15.3
HMSI
TML
22.5
2.1
6.9
10.9
M&M
Hyundai
For June 2016, the overall Utility Vehicle segment registered growth of
51.3% YoY to 63,308 units (domestic volume up 35.2% YoY & exports
volumes up 223% YoY). The robust growth is supported by new launches
across players. In the domestic market Toyotas Innova leads the space
(domestic volumes of 8,171 units) followed by Hyundais Creta (domestic
volume of 7,700 units). Apart from that, Marutis Vitara Brezza & Fords
Ecosport also posted domestic volumes of 6,673 units and 4,612 units
respectively in June 2016.
TVS
Maruti
4.6
ALL
10.6
Source: Siam
Research Analyst
Nishit Zota
nishit.zota@icicisecurities.com
Vidrum Mehta
vidrum.mehta@icicisecurities.com
40.3
40
Jun-15
May-16
Jun-16
38.0 37.6
35
30
25.5
27.0 27.2
(%)
25
20
15
9.0
10
9.5
9.6
5
0
Bajaj Auto
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motors
HMSI
Others
Others
9.0
8.2
M&M
8.6
8.4
Jun-15
May-16
Jun-16
11.8
10.8
28.5
28.4
Piaggio
32.6
53.9
55.0
Bajaj Auto
44.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
(%)
Page 2
60
53.5
Jun-15
May-16
Jun-16
50.6 50.6
50
(%)
40
30
20
10
0
Bajaj Auto
Hero Motocorp
TVS motor
Honda
Jun-15
70
May-16
60
Jun-16
50
(%)
40
30
20
13.8
16.3 15.4
10
0
Hero Motocorp
TVS Motors
Honda
Others
Page 3
70
20
58.7
60
15.4 16
50
(%)
7.6
30
(%)
12
40
20
4
18.3
10
0
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
TVS (RHS)
HMSI (RHS)
90
74.8
80
25
70
20.1
20
(%)
60
50
15.1
40
15
10
30
20
10
5.0
TVS (RHS)
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
HMSI (RHS)
Page 4
(%)
500
300
200
59
100
86
72
70
54
63
484
433
427
542
531
478
406
470
458
513
527
514
486
('000s)
400
53
65
120
100
80
60
('000s)
600
40
20
0
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec'15
Oct '15
Aug'15
Jun'15
0
Motorcycles
Scooters
Jun-16
486,225
63,308
549,533
11,469
2.1
Jun-15
%chg
483,813
0.5
58,549
8.1
542,362
1.3
27,083 -57.7
5.0 -291 bps
May-16
513,605
69,512
583,117
15,262
2.6
%chg
-5.3
-8.9
-5.8
-24.9
-53 bps
YTD'17
1,526,565
218,824
1,745,389
38,945
2.2
YTD'16
1,476,737
168,806
1,645,543
45,301
2.8
%chg
3.4
29.6
6.1
-14.0
-52 bps
53
45
(%)
50
307
36
292
264
253
235
271
248
330
309
290
288
36
100
273
41
200
150
Its 3-W volumes remained flat (down 0.1% YoY), after strong
growth of 24% YoY in domestic volumes was offset by de-growth
of 20.9% YoY in export volumes. Volumes in Nigeria were at
23,000 units (vs. earlier run-rate of 40,000 units)
40
38
41
41
45
37
39
44
41
45
250
50
44
54
50
44
44
48
47
282
('000s)
300
52
50
55
400
350
40
39
35
33 31
Two-Wheelers
Three-Wheelers
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec'15
Oct'15
Aug'15
Jun'15
30
% exports
Segment
Total 2-wheeler sales
2W exports
2W domestic sales
Total 3-wheeler sales
3W exports
3w domestic sales
Total Sales
Total Domestic Sales
Total Exports
Exports as % of sales
Source: Company, Siam
Jun-16
273,298
104,673
168,625
43,671
18,579
25,092
316,969
193,717
123,252
38.9
Jun-15
%chg
287,582
-5.0
132,582
-21.1
155,000
8.8
43,735
-0.1
23,492
-20.9
20,243
24.0
331,317
-4.3
175,243
10.5
156,074
-21.0
47.1 -822 bps
%chg
May-16
-11.1
307,344
-17.9
127,522
-6.2
179,822
9.8
39,791
20.8
15,379
2.8
24,412
-8.7
347,135
-5.1
204,234
-13.8
142,901
41.2 -228 bps
YTD'17
872,540
323,660
548,880
121,461
46,257
75,204
994,001
624,084
369,917
37.2
YTD'16
%chg
875,235
-0.3
389,013
-16.8
486,222
12.9
137,794
-11.9
87,483
-47.1
50,311
49.5
1,013,029
-1.9
536,533
16.3
476,496
-22.4
47.0 -982 bps
Page 5
TVS volumes (2-W+3-W) for June 2016, at ~2.5 lakh units, were
up 11.2% YoY. The 2-W volumes grew 13.7% YoY while 3-W
volumes declined 35.8% YoY for June 2016
300
76
77
68
65
96
95
72
69
63
68
87
90
67
77
67
63
83
55
65
71
58
60
82
76
91
75
90
106
61
70
73
50
89
100
55
61
61
57
150
77
87
(%)
200
77
250
Motorcycles
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec '15
Oct '15
Jun'15
Aug'15
Scooters
Mopeds
Jun-16
95,439
67,539
76,953
239,931
7,128
247,059
39,086
16.3
207,973
Jun-15
88,675
61,241
61,086
211,002
11,097
222,099
43,025
20.4
179,074
%chg
7.6
10.3
26.0
13.7
-35.8
11.2
-9.2
16.1
May-16
96,485
65,434
76,401
238,320
5,463
243,783
35,545
14.9
208,238
%chg
-1.1
3.2
0.7
0.7
30.5
1.3
10.0
-0.1
YTD'17
282,415
196,314
221,872
700,601
17,337
717,938
102,985
14.7
614,953
YTD'16
254,972
165,042
187,872
607,886
30,229
638,115
119,046
19.6
519,069
%chg
10.8
18.9
18.1
15.3
-42.6
12.5
-13.5
18.5
450
400
265
268
245
121
272
241
129
208
99
236
208
104
257
139
270
268
200
227
250
121
('000s)
300
264
350
143
147
159
126
162
50
121
100
147
150
Motorcycles
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec'15
Oct'15
Aug'15
Jun'15
Scooters
Jun-16
142,618
265,361
427,222
19,243
4.5
407,979
Jun-15
%chg
121,469
17.4
227,405
16.7
348,874
22.5
17,015
13.1
4.9 -37 bps
331,859
22.9
May-16
147,479
268,423
436,358
20,456
4.7
415,902
%chg
-3.3
-1.1
-2.1
-5.9
-18 bps
-1.9
YTD'17
449,053
805,903
1,294,655
56,739
4.4
1,237,916
YTD'16
390,900
640,506
1,056,891
42,500
4.0
1,014,391
Page 6
%chg
14.9
25.8
22.5
33.5
36 bps
22.0
Four-wheeler industry
The overall passenger vehicles segment for June 2016 registered growth
of 7.6% YoY to 277,063 units. The domestic PV space was up 2.7% YoY
while exports volumes grew by 34% YoY. Within the sub-segments of PV
space, the utility vehicles (UVs) reported strong volume growth of 51%
YoY supporting the overall PV growth. The volumes of other two
segments, cars & vans declined by 1.7% YoY & 1.9% YoY respectively.
Market leader, MSIL, underperformed the PV space, with its overall
volumes down 13.9% YoY to 98,840 units after company faced
disruptions in its production activity.
For June 2016, utility vehicle (UV) volumes were up 51% YoY at 68,308
units, largely outperforming the overall PV market. The UV1 sub-segment
registered growth of 74.8% YoY to 45,823 units, mainly driven by
Hyundais Creta (volumes at 12,762 units) & Fords Ecosport (volume
stood at 10,865 units; up 71% YoY). Maruti Suzukis Vitara Brezza volumes
came in at 6,677 units. M&Ms TUV300 & KUV100 volumes stood at 1,770
units & 3,603 units, respectively, for June 2016. Volumes in the UV2
segment grew 21.4% YoY to 20,575 units, mainly due to Toyotas (Innova
volume up 97.2% YoY to 8,171 units) & Honda Cars (new BR-V volumes
stood at 3,064 units).
The commercial vehicles segment witnessed growth of 7.3% YoY to
66,215 units. The M&HCV growth surprising moderated; up marginally
1.4% YoY to 25,904 units. Volumes of the market leaders in the space
namely Tata Motors & Ashok Leyland moderated in June 2016. The LCV
segment continued to witness strength over the past couple of months,
registering volume growth of 11.4% YoY to 40,311 units, supported by
good growth in M&M and Tata Motors LCV volumes.
21.3
19.2
20.7
Others
May-16
Jun-16
1.0
1.0
1.5
GM
Jun-15
8.5
8.9
8.2
M&M
5.3
4.6
5.7
Tata Motors
17.7
17.7
17.2
Hyundai
46.2
48.6
46.8
Maruti
0
10
20
(%)
30
40
50
60
Source: Siam, Data used is YTD * passenger vehicles as per Siam include Vans like Gio, Maxximo, Eeco, Ace
Page 7
80
70
60
63.6
58.4
50
(%)
40
32.6
31.5
30
20
10
Hyundai
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
Maruti
Jun-15
50
May-16
Jun-16
45
40
35
(%)
30
25
16.8 16.7 17.3
20
15
10
5
0
ALL
M&M
Tata Motors
Others
70 64.2
60
60.9
50
39.1
40 35.8
(%)
30
20
10
M&HCV
LCV
Source: Siam
Page 8
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
60
12.6
8.8
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec'15
Oct'15
Jun'15
Aug'15
CV Sales
31.6
31.2
10.8
44.1
28.6
11.1
8.3
10.6
11.4
35.3
36.0
31.7
28.3
12.3
11.9
10.7
10.7
13.2
30.3
33.0
10
29.5
20
28.8
(000's)
30
29.5
40
8.9
50
PV Sales
20
Apr'15
May'15
Jun'15
Jul'15
Aug'15
Sept'15
Oct'15
Nov'15
Dec'15
Jan'16
Feb'16
Mar'16
Apr'16
May'16
June'16
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
(000's)
40
40.9
46.2
47.2
60
51.1
48.5
51.0
51.0
45.5
52.3
80
40.7
38.9
34.9
32.6
33.1
100
% Jaguar
% LR
12
10.6
120
8
6.8
6
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec'15
Oct'15
0
Aug'15
0
Jun'15
%chg
-23.8
16.8
50.3
-3.1
26.5
10.5
4.0
1.5
2.1
YTD'17
35,101
43,191
28,598
3,023
13,816
123,729
34,572
99,762
134,334
YTD'16
32,417
39,017
26,617
4,919
13,542
115,795
21,202
93,250
114,452
%chg
8.3
10.7
7.4
-38.5
2.0
6.9
63.1
7.0
17.4
Export volumes declined 44.7% YoY to 6,707 units, with its share
declining to 6.8% of total sales vs. 10.6% in June 2015
20
Total Sales
May-16
13,312
13,714
7,787
830
4,428
40,071
12,442
33,762
46,204
(%)
115
122
118
114
134
121
119
114
117
129
127
123
99
('000s)
80
40
%chg
-11.4
13.5
37.4
-53.1
10.3
10.3
82.6
23.1
35.2
10
100
60
Jun-15
11,450
14,112
8,516
1,715
5,078
40,154
7,087
27,821
34,908
Jun-16
10,147
16,017
11,705
804
5,603
44,276
12,942
34,255
47,197
Export %
Jun-16
9,874
Jun-15
10,465
%chg
-5.6
May-16
12,164
%chg
-18.8
YTD'17
36,558
YTD'16
34,136
%chg
7.1
67,683
80,037
-15.4
79,659
-15.0
224,948
234,725
-4.2
4,868
82,425
9,708
92,133
6,707
98,840
6.8
6,593
97,095
5,531
102,626
12,130
114,756
10.6
-26.2
-15.1
75.5
-10.2
-44.7
-13.9
7,743
99,566
13,596
113,162
9,872
123,034
8.0
-37.1
-17.2
-28.6
-18.6
-32.1
-19.7
21,486
282,992
39,348
322,340
26,103
348,443
7.5
21,283
290,144
15,550
305,694
35,635
341,329
10.4
1.0
-2.5
153.0
5.4
-26.7
2.1
Page 9
2.4
2.4
2.3
Jun-16
7.5
8.7
13.2
Mar-16
Apr-16
7.9
10.8
Feb-16
Jan-16
M&HCV
May-16
2.7
2.5
11.2
2.7
9.7
6.3
Dec'15
Nov'15
2.6
7.2
Oct'15
2.6
2.6
2.6
8.9
12.1
Sep'15
Aug'15
2.4
2.2
Jul'15
8.8
8.0
Jun'15
(000's)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
3.5
LCV
Segment
M&HCV Passenger
M&HCV Goods
LCV
Passenger Vehicles
Total Sales
Exports
Exports as % of sales
Source: Company, Siam
Jun-16
1,944
6,741
2,423
11,108
653
5.9
Jun-15
2,008
6,036
%chg
-3.2
11.7
0.4
NA
6.2
-48.9
2,413
0
10,457
1,278
12.2
May-16
1,763
5,706
%chg
10.3
18.1
2,406
0
9,875
905
9.2
0.7
NA
12.5
-27.8
YTD'17
5,395
18,628
7,142
31,165
2,226
7.1
YTD'16 %chg
5,167
4.4
16,314
14.2
6,673
7.0
28 -100.0
28,182
10.6
3,408
-34.7
12.1
35
40.7
39.0
41.9
44.0
41.6
35.6
36.1
40
34.7
(000's)
45
37.9
42.8
50
43.8
51.4
55
52.7
60
30
25
20
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec'15
Nov'15
Oct'15
Sep'15
Aug'15
Jul'15
Jun'15
15
23.0
14.7
13.6
15.1
21.4
21.7
28.1
18.1
12.9
15
11.7
20
15.5
(000's)
25
25.1
30
30.2
35
%chg
9.3
6.3
-10.6
7.0
-6.1
May-16
18,648
11,852
1,257
32,744
3,869
%chg
-15.4
14.2
2.9
-6.5
13.2
YTD'17
55,909
37,226
3,663
98,956
12,005
YTD'16
49,543
35,888
3,337
88,952
12,166
33,282
5.1
36,613
-4.4
110,961
101,118
9.7
2,852
41.0
4,043
-0.6
10,569
8,449
25.1
39,011
36,134
8.0
40,656
-4.0
121,530
109,567
10.9
10.3
7.9
8.7
7.7
Tractors - Domestic
28,797
23,899
20.5
22,148
30.0
71,649
59,150
21.1
- Exports
Total Tractors
Exports as % of sales
1,394
30,191
4.6
1,191
25,090
4.7
17.0
20.3
870
23,018
3.8
60.2
31.2
2,946
74,595
3.9
3,208
62,358
5.1
-8.2
19.6
Segment
UVs
4-Wheeler pickups
M & HCV
Total 4wheeler Sales
3-Wheeler
Jun-16
15,777
13,540
1,293
30,610
4,381
Jun-15
14,433
12,737
1,447
28,617
4,665
34,991
4,020
Exports
Total Auto Sales
10
Exports as % of sales
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec'15
Nov'15
Oct'15
Sep'15
Aug'15
Jul'15
Jun'15
9.9
Page 10
%chg
12.8
3.7
9.8
11.2
-1.3
Models
Alto
Jun-15
21,115
Models
Alto
Jun-16
15,750
DZIRE
18,973
DZIRE
13,492
Swift
17,313
Grand i10
12,678
Wagon R
13,221
Wagon R
11,962
Elite i20
10,841
Kwid
9,459
Grand i10
8,970
Swift
9,033
Celerio
8,078
Elite i20
8,990
City
7,187
Innova
8,171
Amaze
6,834
Creta
7,700
10
Bolero
6,093
Baleno
6,967
Source: Siam
Models
Activa
Splendor
Passion
HF Deluxe
Activa
Jun-16
226,686
195,108
Splendor
204,609
124,463
HF Deluxe
106,486
84,987
Glamour
80,348
CB Shine
65,350
Passion
76,639
TVS XL Super
59,304
TVS XL Super
74,599
Glamour
57,477
CB Shine
74,286
CT
54,362
Jupiter
46,145
Pulsar
50,962
Pulsar
43,794
Jupiter
36,650
CT
43,049
9
10
Source: Siam
Jun-15
196,913
Models
Page 11
Ashok Leyland (ALL) has bagged order for nearly 3600 buses from
various STUs which would be executed in FY17E. The management
continues to maintain growth in the domestic M&HCV market and
believe that the industry is likely to post 15%-20% in FY17E.
Page 12
M Cap
(| Cr)
15373
7869
27318
78685
6775
17160
76208
53558
15445
65218
2047
85151
5814
133453
41648
140106
10830
EPS (|)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
28.0
31.4
38.9
22.0
18.9
19.7
1.2
2.5
5.5
97.2 126.2 147.7
55.7
45.1
56.3
28.0
33.0
40.2
398.7 498.5 649.8
477.4 608.2 733.2
7.3
8.6
10.0
119.5 156.9 168.5
20.4
20.5
22.4
48.3
59.7
64.9
2.7
9.9
12.5
151.3 197.2 238.6
9.6
13.7
18.2
37.2
48.5
58.8
107.9 128.5 167.6
P/E (x)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
32.1 28.7 23.1
7.1
8.3
7.9
82.2 38.1 17.5
28.0 21.5 18.4
12.6 15.5 12.5
26.3 22.3 18.3
54.6 43.7 33.5
41.5 32.6 27.0
24.8 21.1 18.2
27.3 20.8 19.4
4.4
4.4
4.0
29.8 24.1 22.2
66.6 18.1 14.4
29.2 22.4 18.5
32.7 23.0 17.3
12.2
9.4
7.7
52.8 44.3 34.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
17.6 16.1 13.1
4.4
5.7
5.5
31.6 14.0 10.7
16.1 14.8 12.2
7.2
8.1
6.5
12.9 11.9 10.5
35.6 29.7 23.1
22.1 18.4 14.8
13.8 11.6
9.5
12.1 11.5 10.0
3.9
3.6
3.0
16.6
9.6
8.5
19.9 12.6 10.5
13.0 11.5
9.7
11.0
9.2
7.5
3.8
3.1
2.5
36.4 30.4 24.0
RoCE (%)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
31.1 28.4 29.0
20.9 14.6 13.6
7.2 23.0 27.2
35.6 35.4 36.8
18.7 15.9 18.9
16.4 18.1 18.0
15.1 16.6 18.7
42.6 41.5 38.9
18.7 19.8 21.4
45.9 50.4 43.8
21.4 20.6 21.9
14.6 16.5 16.7
7.5 14.0 15.5
22.7 21.2 22.1
22.3 26.9 32.2
17.0 17.1 18.4
19.4 19.1 20.3
RoE (%)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
22.8 21.2 21.7
18.1 14.3 13.2
6.5 13.1 23.6
26.3 29.3 30.4
19.3 15.9 18.9
18.2 18.6 19.3
17.8 19.0 21.6
37.2 35.3 32.1
14.0 14.8 15.4
36.5 39.4 35.9
26.5 21.2 19.3
14.5 14.4 13.9
7.4 13.0 15.1
16.9 18.9 19.3
30.0 37.2 41.2
15.3 15.3 15.7
22.5 22.1 22.7
Page 13
RM Auto Index
240
220
200
166
180
160
140
120
100
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
80
US$INR
US$JPY
US$EUR
Page 14
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
60
RATING RATIONALE
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Page 15
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Nishit Zota, MBA (Finance) and Vidrum Mehta, MBA (Finance) research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report
accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or
view(s) in this report.
Page 16