Result Update

October 26, 2015

Rating matrix
Rating
Target
Target Period
Potential Upside

:
:
:
:

Container Corporation (CONCOR)

Buy
| 1700
12 months
25%

Short lived temporary problems; recovery awaited

Whats changed?
Target
EPS FY16E
EPS FY17E
Rating

Changed from | 1875 to | 1700

Changed from | 56.3 to | 56.7
Changed from | 75 to | 68
Unchanged

Quarterly performance
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA (%)
PAT

Q2FY16
1,501.9
316.1
21.0
233.5

Q2FY15 YoY (%)

1,354.8
10.9
312.7
1.1
23.1 -203 bps
191.9
21.7

Q1FY16
1,420.9
287.9
20.3
206.9

QoQ (%)
5.7
9.8
79 bps
12.9

Key financials
| Crore
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (|)

FY14
4,985
1,102
985
50.5

FY15
5,574
1,297
1,048
53.7

FY16E
6,314
1,433
1,105
56.7

FY17E
7,748
1,749
1,326
68.0

Valuation summary
P/E (x)
Target P/E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)

FY14
33.9
33.5
27.9

FY15
25.1
31.6
18.3

FY16E
23.9
30.0
16.6

FY17E
20.0
25.0
13.3

P / BV (x)

4.8

3.4

3.1

2.8

RONW (%)
ROCE (%)

14.1
13.0

13.7
12.0

13.1
12.8

14.2
14.3

Stock data
Particular
Market Capitalisation (| Crore)
Totak Debt (FY15) (| Crore)
Cash and Investment (Mar-14) (| Crore)
EV (| Crore)

Amount
26,321.0
2,587.9
23,733.0

52 week H/L
Equity Capital (| Crore)
Face Value (|)

1944 / 1204
195.0
10.0

Stock Return
Gati
Blue Dart Express
Concor
Arshiya

1M
10.5
7.7
-1.2
-2.9

3M
-11.6
8.4
2.6
-26.5

| 1360

6M
-30.6
-11.4
16.7
66.2

12M
65.2
63.7
26.8
23.9

Research Analysts
Bharat Chhoda
bharat.chhodal@icicisecurities.com
Ankit Panchmatia
ankit.panchmatia@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Concors Q2FY16 revenues grew ~11% YoY (up 6% QoQ) to | 1502

crore. The performance was mainly driven by Exim revenues, which
grew 14% YoY to | 1236.6 crore. Adding to the Exim performance,
domestic revenues capped their downward trend, remaining at | 265
crore compared to | 266 crore in Q2FY15
Total volumes handled during the quarter de-grew 8% YoY to
752744 TEUs, compared to 816529 TEUs in Q2FY15. Volumes for
Exim route de-grew 7% YoY with 648466 TEUs. Domestic volumes
also de-grew 14% YoY at 104278 TEUs. Exim and domestic
realisation grew 22% and 16%, respectively
EBITDA for the quarter grew 1% YoY (down 10% QoQ) to | 316.1
crore. EBITDA margins declined 203 bps YoY (down 79 bps QoQ) to
21%. Increase in haulage charges and impact of service charges
continue to dent the operational performance
PAT grew 22% YoY (up 13% QoQ) to | 233.5 crore. Annual PAT
growth was on account of higher depreciation charges to the tune of
| 98.5 crore in Q2FY15 that dented PAT in the same period.
Adjusting the same, the comparable PAT de-grew 20% YoY
Volumes impacted by temporary breakdown; back to normalcy
During the quarter, there were continued technical problems at Pipavav
Port due to which rail operations were completely halted. Concors
operations were affected for ~19 days. This led Concor to handle mere
2086 TEUs in Q2FY16 compared to 19334 TEUs in the same period of the
previous year. An additional disruption at Mundra port further hit
volumes, which were at 22722 TEUs vis--vis 29722 TEUs in Q2FY15.
Moreover, a week-long strike at JNPT port added to the woes of already
subdued trade volumes. As assured by the management, these
temporary issues have been resolved, which would not impact H2
volumes of the company. This affirms our belief that Concors H2FY16
performance would be much better than H1FY16. On the back of this, we
expect Concor to achieve the FY16 grow guidance of 11% YoY.
Service tax, haulage charges Matter of time to be passed on
As per earlier taxation system, service tax of 12.36% was charged on
30% of total freight cost that was changed to 12.36% on 100% of total
freight cost. Hence, total service tax outflow increased from 3.70% to
12.36% of billable value. This hike was completely passed on in Exim
route that continues to impact Exim volumes with a second consecutive
quarter of volume dip. To safeguard domestic volumes, these charges
were partially absorbed adversely impacting EBITDA margins. In addition
to service tax hike, haulage charges for these train operators were
increased by 25% to 41% approximately. With Concors pole position
among container train operators (CTOs) and its enviable network reach,
we believe these hikes will be passed on to customers in due course.
Make in India, GST, dedicated freight corridor (DFC); multiple triggers
Though container volumes at major ports for H1FY16 were dismal, the
Make in India campaign would revitalise trade activities bringing in
higher volumes for Concor. Though delayed, the optimism over Goods &
Service Tax (GST) would support Concors plans on multi modal logistics
parks (MMLP). The speedy construction of DFC would structurally and
operationally benefit Concor. With these triggers, we affirm our growth
estimates of revenue CAGR of 17% over FY15-17E. The current
operational glitch is captured by tapering our earlier FY17E EPS estimates
of | 75 to | 68. We continue to assign a P/E multiple of 25x to arrive at a
target price of | 1700 and maintain BUY rating on the stock.

Variance analysis
Q2FY16 Q2FY16E
1,501.9 1,501.9

Revenue

Employee Expenses
Terminal & other Expenses
Administrative Expenses
Total Expense
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Depreciation

Q2FY15
1,354.8

YoY (%)
10.9

Q1FY16 QoQ (%)

1,420.9
5.7

36.9

37.5

47.4

-22.1

37.3

-1.0

945.6

931.2

775.6

21.9

896.3

5.5

203.4

225.3

219.1

-7.2

199.4

2.0

1,185.8

1,194.0

1,042.1

13.8

1,133.0

4.7

316.1

307.9

312.7

1.1

287.9

9.8

21.0
87.6

20.5
91.6

23.1 -203 bps

148.6
-41.1

20.3
90.7

79 bps
-3.4

Interest

0.0

0.0

0.0

85.8

81.4

92.0

-6.8

79.8

7.5

PBT
Total Tax

314.4
80.8

297.7
83.4

256.2
64.3

22.7
25.8

277.0
70.1

13.5
15.3

PAT

233.5

214.4

191.9

21.7

206.9

12.9

Other Income

Key Metrics
EXIM Volume (TEUs)

Q2FY16 Q1FY16
648,466 614,353

Domestic Volume (TEUs)

104,278 107,742

Comments
Revenue posted growth on the back of passing on of service tax price hikes on
Exim route

Higher charges as Railways increased its haulage charges. Also, impact of

service tax increased expenses

Lower operational performance dented margins

0.0

YoY(%) Q2FY15 QoQ (%)

5.6 695,361
-6.7
-3.2 121,168

-13.9

Exim volumes de-grew for second consecutive month due to sluggish port
volumes and rate hike passed
Domestic volumes continue to decline for fourth consecutive quarter

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Change in estimates
(| Crore)
Revenue

Old
6,556.0

FY16E
New % Change
6,313.8
-3.7

Old
8,090.9

FY17E
New % Change
7,747.7
-4.2

EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)

1,422.6
21.7

1,433.2
22.7

0.7
100 bps

1,935.3
23.9

1,748.7
22.6

-9.6
-135 bps

PAT
EPS (|)

1,097.0
56.3

1,104.9
56.7

0.7
0.7

1,462.5
75.0

1,326.0
68.0

-9.3
-9.3

Comments
Revenue estimates taper due to impact of haulage charges, service tax on
competitivness of rail
Margins would remain rangebound on the back of higher haulage charges and phased
manner of hikes passed on
PAT estimates tapered to incorporate slower-than-expected recovery

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Assumptions
Current
FY16E
FY17E
2,706,630
3,031,425

Earlier
FY16E
FY17E
2,795,891
3,131,397

Unit
TEUs

FY15
2,621,385

TEUs

507,183

423,715

510,972

430,416

|/TEUs

16,942

19,322

20,858

19,576

21,122

Domestic Realisation
|/TEUs
23,141
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

25,587

27,886

25,153

27,241

Exim Volume
Domestic Volume
Exim Realisation

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

542,062

Comments
Volumes adjusted to account for slower-than-expected recovery in trade
activities
Domestic volume to taper as Exim cargo takes priority
Realisation to improve as charges are passed on

Page 2

Company Analysis
Focus to enhance Exim volume as major ports volume recovers
Exim revenues form ~84% of Concors total revenues. Exim volumes
posted a CAGR of 7% in FY10-15 with FY15 posting robust growth of
~11% YoY, thereby, hinting towards a revival. Further, container volumes
at major ports grew 7% YoY. Consequently, going ahead, driven by
buoyant container volume growth at major ports, we expect Exim
volumes of Concor to post a CAGR of ~9% over FY15-17E. Further, as
JNPT port is one of the largest volume contributors to Concor, its
volumes posted growth of nearly 7% YoY in FY15 (YTDFY16 growth of
1%). For Q2FY16, port wise volume share from JNPT declined to 42%
compared to 45% in FY14. However, the decline in volume share at JNPT
was compensated by an increase in share from Mundra and Pipavav port
where Concors share stood at 25% and 21%, respectively. As volumes
picked up at ports, Concor is focusing on Exim to improve its earnings.
Exhibit 1: Exim container volume
3,500
2,640 2,707

3,000
2,152

2,000

2,361

595

616

632

676

665

Q4FY14

Q1FY15

Q2FY15

Q3FY15

647

614

Q1FY16

603

Q4FY15

548

Q3FY14

1,000

Q2FY14

1,500

Q1FY14

000 TEUs

2,500

3,031

500
FY17E

FY16E

FY15

FY14

FY13

EXIM

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Domestic volume expected to pick up, after sluggish FY15

Over FY10-15, domestic cargo volumes had been a laggard and de-grew
at a CAGR of 2%. However, we believe in FY15-17E these volumes would
see a revival on the back of competitive pricing from roadways. We
expect it to grow at a CAGR of 5% over the same period. Further, an
increase in freight rates will result in higher realisations, which will
improve overall domestic revenues.
Exhibit 2: Domestic container volume
600

507
434

511

489
424

400

114

120

127

146

135

121

115

118 108

Q4FY14

Q1FY15

Q2FY15

Q3FY15

Q4FY15

100

Q3FY14

200

Q2FY14

300

Q1FY14

000 TEUs

500

FY17E

FY16E

FY15

FY14

FY13

Q1FY16

Domestic

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

Dedicated freight corridor to provide long term revenue visibility

There has been a need to decongest the existing trunk routes of HowrahDelhi on the Eastern Corridor and Mumbai-Delhi on the Western Corridor.
Due to higher freight rates, coupled with pilferage at various levels, the
freight share for railways declined to 30% compared to that of roadways
at 65%. The surging need for transportation of food grains, coupled with
power needs requiring heavy coal movement, booming infrastructure
construction and growing international trade have led to the conception
of the dedicated freight corridors along the eastern and western routes.
Exhibit 3: Upgraded dimensions for DFC

Source: DFCCIL website, ICICIdirect.com Research

Concor to post strong growth numbers aided by PFTs, private ports

Concors revenues grew at a CAGR of 8.5% in FY11-15 as container
volumes remained sluggish; except 2014. However, going ahead, with an
improved market share in private ports such as Mundra and Gujarat
Pipavav we expect volumes to improve. Further, we believe the
governments Make in India campaign will perk up trade volumes for
exports. In turn, this will drive higher volumes for Concor. On the EBITDA
front also, we expect Concor to post a CAGR of ~21% over FY15-17E vis-vis CAGR of ~7% over FY11-15. As EBITDA margins have remained
under pressure over the years due to a steep increase in freight rates by
railways, going forward, we believe hikes will pause, thereby allowing the
company to stabilise its margins. Also, introduction of double stacking
and hub & spoke model for its operations is expected to provide further
scope to improve margins (in the range of 23% to 25%) in future. Further,
introduction of PFTs is expected to improve earnings of the company in
future. Consequently, PAT is also expected to post a CAGR of ~18% over
FY15-17E against 7% in FY11-15.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 4

Outlook and valuation

In 1999-2007, Concor registered robust growth with revenues posting a
CAGR of 21% along with EBITDA and PAT also posting CAGR of ~22%
over the same period. However, post the financial crisis of 2008, Concor
also faced the severe brunt and has been trying to recover its growth with
revenue CAGR of ~7.3% during 2008-14. EBITDA posted nominal growth
of 3% and PAT of 4% CAGR during the same period. The decline in
growth rate can be attributed to sluggish economic conditions; growing
competition from roadways/new entrants in CTO and incessant fuel price
hikes. As a result, the average EBITDA margin declined from 29% in 19992007 to 25% during 2008-14 with the lowest margin in FY14 of 21.1%.
Going ahead, with FDI in rail and projects such as dedicated freight
corridor and goods and services tax (GST) on the priority list of the
government, we anticipate Concors growth and margins will recover at a
faster pace. Consequently, we envisage revenue CAGR of ~18% over
FY15-17E. This is expected to be followed by a gradual restoration of
EBITDA margin to 23% over FY15-17E. Hence, this may lead to EBITDA
and PAT CAGR of ~16% and 13% over the same period, respectively.
As GST and DFC are expected to roll out in FY17 and CY18, near term
volumes of Concor are expected to grow at a CAGR of ~6% over FY1517E, thereby leading to revenue & earnings CAGR of 18% each in the
same period. Also, PFTs becoming operational in due course are
expected to add another revenue line for Concor. Further, any near term
risk of adverse freight rate movement is expected to be mitigated by
higher Exim volume generation. Finally, with a strong balance sheet and
superior cash flow, we marginally taper our estimates and continue to
assign P/E multiple of 25x FY17E EPS to arrive at target price of | 1700.
We maintain BUY recommendation on the stock.
Exhibit 4: PE trend

Close -Unit Curr

10.0 X

15.0 X

20.0 X

25.0 X

Oct-15

Apr-15

Oct-14

Apr-14

Oct-13

Apr-13

Oct-12

Apr-12

Oct-11

Apr-11

Oct-10

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

30.0 X

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

Company snapshot
2,000
1,800

Target Price |1700

1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Oct-16

Aug-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Feb-16

Oct-15

Dec-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Apr-15

Feb-15

Dec-14

Oct-14

Aug-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Feb-14

Oct-13

Dec-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Apr-13

Feb-13

Oct-12

Dec-12

Aug-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Feb-12

Dec-11

Oct-11

Aug-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Feb-11

Dec-10

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key events
Date
Feb-08

Event
Concor NYK to set up JV company

May-09

Q3FY12 profit up 13.9 % YoY; forthcoming Rail Budget keeps stock in focus

Jan-11

Concor TCI plan to set up JV company Infinite Logistics Solutions Ltd for ocean freight carrier service

Jul-11

Concor halves capex plans as Exim business is plagued by cargo imbalance

Feb-12

Concor plans to set up three logistics parks in West Bengal and further plans to set up 15 such parks across the country; Q1FY12 result profit up 5%

Jul-12

Competition panel absolves Concor of abusing its position in container train operator segment

Aug-12

9% hike in haulage charges by railways

Jan-13

Cut in rail freight and stabilisation of container volumes; the freight rate cut varies between 5% and 13% after steep 31% increase in February 2013

Apr-13

Concor announces 1:2 bonus issue; Q1FY14 number disappoints

Jul-14

Concor promoted to Navratna status from Miniratna

Jul-15

Announces Q1FY16 results with lower than expected operating performance

Oct-15

Announces Q2FY16 resutls; margins continue to be pressured, topline in-line with expectation
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Top 10 Shareholders

Shareholding Pattern

Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

(in %)
Promoter
FII
DII
Others

Name
Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)
Government of India
30-Sep-15 61.79
120.5
120.5
Aberdeen Asset Management (Asia) Ltd.
30-Sep-15
3.52
6.9
-2.0
Matthews International Capital Management, L.L.C.
30-Sep-15
2.81
5.5
-3.3
GIC Private Limited
30-Sep-15
2.04
4.0
0.3
T. Rowe Price International (UK) Ltd.
30-Sep-15
1.48
2.9
0.8
LIC Nomura Mutual Fund Asset Management Company L
30-Sep-15
1.42
2.8
0.8
Columbia Wanger Asset Management, LLC
31-Aug-15
0.96
1.9
0.1
Stewart Investors
30-Jun-15
0.80
1.6
0.0
IDFC Asset Management Company Private Limited
31-Aug-15
0.76
1.5
0.0
Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited
30-Jun-15
0.56
1.1
0.0

Sep-14 Dec-14
61.8
61.8
25.9
25.0
6.7
7.8
5.6
5.4

Mar-15
61.8
26.3
6.91
4.99

Jun-15 Sep-15
61.8
61.8
29.8
28.3
5.0
6.2
3.4
3.7

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Recent Activity
Buys
Investor name
Government of India
T. Rowe Price International (UK) Ltd.
LIC Nomura Mutual Fund Asset Management Company Ltd.
Somerset Capital Management, L.L.P.
First State Investments (Singapore)
Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Value
2,731.23m
18.18m
17.49m
16.44m
6.92m

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Shares
120.48m
0.80m
0.77m
0.77m
0.32m

Sells
Investor name
Matthews International Capital Management, L.L.C.
Aberdeen Asset Management (Asia) Ltd.
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A.
Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd.

Value
-74.91m
-45.48m
-32.10m
-12.66m
-8.14m

Shares
-3.30m
-2.01m
-1.47m
-0.56m
-0.32m

Page 6

Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Revenue
Growth (%)
Terminal/Other Service charge
Employee Cost
Administrative & other exp.
Op. Expenditure
EBITDA
Growth (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Growth (%)
Tax
Reported PAT
Growth (%)
Adjustments
Adj. Net Profit

| Crore
FY14
4,984.6
12.1
3,512.8
123.5
246.4
3,882.7
1,101.9
5.0
189.3
912.5
0.0
371.7
1,284.3
6.8
299.5
984.8
5.8
0.0
984.8

FY15
5,573.7
11.8
3,830.8
157.9
288.5
4,277.2
1,296.5
17.7
372.7
923.8
0.0
370.7
1,294.6
0.8
246.9
1,047.7
6.4
0.0
1,047.7

FY16E
6,313.8
13.3
4,482.8
176.8
221.0
4,880.6
1,433.2
10.5
348.2
1,085.0
0.0
388.2
1,473.2
13.8
368.3
1,104.9
5.5
0.0
1,104.9

FY17E
7,747.7
22.7
5,491.6
216.9
290.5
5,999.0
1,748.7
22.0
399.7
1,349.0
0.0
414.4
1,763.4
19.7
437.3
1,326.0
20.0
0.0
1,326.0

Cash flow statement

(Year-end March)
Profit after Tax
Add: Depreciation
Add: Others
Cash Profit
Increase/(Decrease) in CL
(Increase)/Decrease in CA
CF from Operating Activities
Purchase of Fixed Assets
(Inc)/Dec in Investments
Others
CF from Investing Activities
Inc/(Dec) in Loan Funds
Inc/(Dec) in Sh. Cap. & Res.
Others
CF from financing activities
Change in cash Eq.
Op. Cash and cash Eq.
Cl. Cash and cash Eq.

| Crore
FY14
984.8
189.3
85.4
1,259.5
(56.0)
(5.9)
1,197.7
(535.3)
(745.1)

FY15
1,047.7
372.7
(178.2)
1,242.1
(75.3)
11.4
1,178.2
(597.5)
(223.6)

FY16E
1,104.9
348.2
91.8
1,544.9
(87.4)
7.2
1,464.7
(904.0)
(106.3)

FY17E
1,326.0
399.7
155.0
1,880.7
(162.2)
20.1
1,738.6
(658.6)
(121.1)

(1,280.3)
(38.5)
(279.7)
(318.2)
(400.9)
2,946.0
2,545.1

(821.1)
(314.3)
(314.3)
42.8
2,545.1
2,587.9

(1,010.3)
51.9
(331.5)
(279.6)
174.8
2,587.9
2,762.7

(779.7)
11.8
(397.8)
(386.0)
572.9
2,762.7
3,335.7

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

358.3
130.5
50.5
60.2
12.3

391.6
132.7
53.7
72.9
13.4

432.4
141.7
56.7
74.5
14.2

480.0
171.1
68.0
88.5
17.0

22.1
19.8
1.5
1.1
2.4
42.2

23.3
18.8
1.6
1.1
2.2
42.2

22.7
17.5
1.5
1.2
2.3
39.3

22.6
17.1
1.7
1.5
2.3
38.0

14.1
13.0
25.5

13.7
12.0
23.7

13.1
12.8
24.4

14.2
14.3
28.4

33.9
4.8
27.9
6.2

25.1
3.4
18.3
4.3

23.9
3.1
16.6
3.8

20.0
2.8
13.3
3.0

0.0
NA
0.0
4.6
4.6

0.0
NA
0.0
4.3
4.3

0.0
NA
0.0
3.8
3.8

0.0
NA
0.0
3.9
3.9

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet

| Crore

(Year-end March)
Source of Funds
Equity Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Shareholder's Fund
Minority Interest
Loan Funds
Deferred Tax Liability
Provisions
Source of Funds

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

195.0
6,790.3
6,985.3
0.0
0.0
305.0
44.4
7,334.7

195.0
7,440.7
7,635.7
0.0
0.0
206.7
57.0
7,899.4

195.0
8,235.1
8,430.1
0.0
0.0
216.7
85.5
8,732.3

195.0
9,163.3
9,358.3
0.0
0.0
226.7
75.8
9,660.8

Application of Funds
Gross Block
Less: Acc. Depreciation
Net Block
Capital WIP
Total Fixed Assets
Investments
Inventories
Debtor
Cash
Loan & Advance, Other CA
Total Current assets
Current Liabilities
Provisions
Total CL and Provisions
Net Working Capital
Application of Funds

4,724.7
1,483.9
3,240.7
0.0
3,240.7
1,496.2
14.9
33.0
2,545.1
719.9
3,312.9
575.8
139.3
715.2
2,597.8
7,334.7

5,399.1
1,856.6
3,542.5
0.0
3,542.5
1,719.8
16.8
36.6
2,587.9
786.4
3,427.7
644.0
146.6
790.5
2,637.2
7,899.4

6,507.1
2,204.8
4,302.3
0.0
4,302.3
1,826.1
20.8
39.8
2,762.7
749.9
3,573.1
679.0
250.8
929.8
2,643.4
8,732.2

7,170.3
2,604.5
4,565.8
0.0
4,565.8
1,947.2
31.8
48.8
3,335.7
887.4
4,303.7
806.6
297.2
1,103.8
3,199.9
9,660.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key ratios
(Year-end March)
Per share data (|)
Book Value
Cash per share
EPS
Cash EPS
DPS
Profitability & Operating Ratios
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT Margin (%)
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory Turnover (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Current Liabilities (Days)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Valuation Ratios (x)
PE
Price to Book Value
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Leverage & Solvency Ratios
Debt to equity (x)
Interest Coverage (x)
Debt to EBITDA (x)
Current Ratio
Quick ratio

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 7

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Logistics)

Sector / Company
Container Corporation
BlueDart
Gati Ltd.

CMP
M Cap
(|)
TP(|) Rating (| Cr)
1,350 1,700
BUY 26,321
7,680 7,750
BUY 18,100
150
230
BUY 1,335

EPS (|)
P/E (x)
FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E
53.7 56.7 68.0 25.1 23.9 20.0
53.5 70.6 88.6 143.5 108.8 86.7
4.7
5.4
6.4 32.0 28.3 23.7

EV/EBITDA (x)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
18.3 16.6 13.3
65.3 52.0 42.3
12.5 11.2
9.3

RoCE (%)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
12.0 12.8 14.3
28.0 35.5 39.6
11.2 13.4 15.0

RoE (%)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
13.7 13.1 14.2
42.7 40.1 41.5
6.3
8.3
9.2

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research # Follow calendar year * Post bonus issue

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 8

RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises
them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the
notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No. 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 9

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Bharat Chhoda, MBA and Ankit Panchmatia, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately

reflect our views

about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this
RATING
RATIONALE
report.

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
ratings
to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a Sebi registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is full-service, integrated investment banking
and
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alia,
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which is Indiasand
largest the
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as
Strongengaged
Buy,in Buy,
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and
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The performance
horizon
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Strong
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for
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respectively,
with cover.
high conviction;
and their relatives
from>15%/20%
maintaining a financial
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Sell:
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Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

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1stinvestment
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Akruti
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or merchant
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