SAS Analytics Day

An Introduction to SAS
Enterprise Miner and SAS
Forecast Server
Andr de Waal, Ph.D.
Analytical Consultant

Agenda
1. Introduction to SAS Enterprise Miner
2. Basics
3. Enterprise Miner Demo
4. Introduction to SAS Forecast Server
5. Basics
6. Forecast Server Demo

Agenda
1. Introduction to SAS Enterprise Miner
2. Basics
3. Enterprise Miner Demo
4. Introduction to SAS Forecast Server
5. Basics
6. Forecast Server Demo

Introduction to Enterprise Miner

SAS Enterprise Miner streamlines the data mining

process to create highly accurate predictive and

descriptive models based on vast amounts of data
gathered from across an organization.

Introduction to Enterprise Miner

Powerful, easy-to-use GUI, as well as batch

processing for large jobs

Data preparation, summarization and exploration
Advanced predictive and descriptive modeling
Fast, easy and self-sufficient way for business users
to generate models
Business-based model comparisons, reporting and
management
Automated scoring process
Open, extensible design & scalable processing

Introduction to Enterprise Miner

Benefits

Support the entire data mining process with a broad set of
tools.

Regardless of your data mining preference or skill level, SAS

provides flexible software that addresses complex problems. Going

from raw data to accurate, business-driven data mining models
becomes a seamless process, enabling the statistical modeling
group, business managers and the IT department to collaborate
more efficiently.

Build better models with a versatile data mining workbench.

SAS Enterprise Miner includes an interactive self-documenting

process flow diagram environment that dramatically shortens model

development time for statisticians and data miners. It efficiently
maps the entire data mining process to achieve the best possible
results.

Introduction to Enterprise Miner

Enable business analysts and subject-matter experts

with limited statistical skills to generate predictive

models for a variety of business scenarios.

The SAS Rapid Predictive Modeler task running from SAS

Enterprise Guide or the SAS Add-In for Microsoft Office (Excel

only) enables business users to automatically generate
predictive models and act on them quickly and effectively.
Analytic results can be consumed in simple and easy-tounderstand charts to derive the insights needed for better
decision making.

Introduction to Enterprise Miner

Enhance accuracy of predictions and easily share

reliable information to improve the quality of decisions.

Better-performing models with new innovative algorithms

enhance the stability and accuracy of predictions, which can

be verified easily by visual model assessment and validation
metrics. Both analytical and business users enjoy a common,
easy-to-interpret visual view of the data mining process.
Predictive results and assessment statistics from models built
with different approaches can be displayed side-by-side for
easy comparison. The resulting diagrams serve as selfdocumenting templates that can be updated easily or applied
to new problems without starting over.

Introduction to Enterprise Miner

Ease the model deployment and scoring process.

Scoring the process of applying a model to new data is the

end result of many data mining endeavors. SAS Enterprise

Miner automates the tedious scoring process and supplies
complete scoring code for all stages of model development in
SAS, C, Java and PMML. The scoring code can be deployed in a
variety of real-time or batch environments within SAS, on the
Web or directly in relational databases. The outcome is faster
implementation of data mining results.

SAS Enterprise Miner Interface Tour

10

SAS Enterprise Miner Interface Tour

Menu bar and shortcut buttons

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SAS Enterprise Miner Interface Tour

Project panel

12

SAS Enterprise Miner Interface Tour

Properties panel

13

SAS Enterprise Miner Interface Tour

Help panel

14

SAS Enterprise Miner Interface Tour

Diagram workspace

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SAS Enterprise Miner Interface Tour

Process flow

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SAS Enterprise Miner Interface Tour

Node

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SAS Enterprise Miner Interface Tour

SEMMA tools palette

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Refine analytic objective

Assess observed results

Gather results

Integrate deployment

Generate deployment methods

Apply analysis

Transform input data

Repair input data

Validate input data

Extract input data

Select cases

Define analytic objective

The Analytic Workflow

Analytic workflow

19

Enterprise Miner Demo

Ozone data set

The goal is to predict the Ozone concentrations in
the air given 9 exploratory variables:

Wind speed (mph)

Inversion base temperature (degrees F)

Visibility (miles)

Calendar day, between 1 and 366

Etc.

Introduction to Forecast Server

SAS Forecast Server is our flagship forecasting software

and can automatically generate large quantities of

statistically based forecasts without the need for human
intervention, unless so desired. It operates in either batch
mode or interactively through the Forecast Studio GUI.

SAS Forecast Server automatically chooses the most
appropriate forecasting model from an extensible model
repository, optimizes model parameters, and generates the
forecasts. Forecasters can focus attention on problematic or
high-value forecasts, and conduct what-if analysis through
the Scenario Analyzer tool.

Introduction to Forecast Server

Easy-to-use GUI

Large-scale automatic forecasting

Easy manageability

Introduction to Forecast Server

Motivation: The Large-Scale Forecasting

Introduction to Forecast Server

A skilled analyst can forecast a single time series by

applying good judgment based on knowledge and
experience

using various proven time-series analysis techniques

utilizing good software based on sound statistical theory.

Introduction to Forecast Server

Modern businesses require efficient, reliable forecasts for

many series. These forecasts usually need to be updated on

a regular basis.

There are not sufficient resources to apply the single series
forecasting approach to all series that need to be forecast.

The series might be hierarchically arranged and require
reconciliation of forecasts at different levels.

Introduction to Forecast Server

Large-Scale Forecasting Scenario

80% can be forecast automatically.

10% requires extra effort.

10% cannot be forecast accurately.
Time Series Data

Introduction to Forecast Server

Benefits

Delivers forecasts in a quick and timely manner through a userfriendly graphical interface.

Provides forecasts that reflect the realities of the business,
improving your ability to plan future events with confidence.

Improves forecasting performance across all products and
locations, at any level of aggregation.

SAS Forecast Studio Interface Tour

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SAS Forecast Studio Interface Tour

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SAS Forecast Studio Interface Tour

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SAS Forecast Studio Interface Tour

Menu Bar and Shortcut Buttons

31

SAS Forecast Studio Interface Tour

Menu Bar and
Shortcut Buttons

32

SAS Forecast Studio Interface Tour

The Active Series

Overview
Panel

33

SAS Forecast Studio Interface Tour

The Four View Tabs

34

SAS Forecast Studio Interface Tour

The Forecasting View

35

SAS Forecast Studio Interface Tour

The Modeling View

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SAS Forecast Studio Interface Tour

The Modeling View

MSL
The Model Selection List (MSL) associated with the highlighted series

37

SAS Forecast Studio Interface Tour

The Scenario
Analysis View

38

SAS Forecast Studio Interface Tour

The Series View

39

Accommodate data updates

Refine forecasting objectives

Disseminate observed results

Apply forecast overrides

Assess observed results

Gather results

Reconcile forecasts

Apply analysis and generate forecasts

Accumulate series, create the hierarchy

Repair series

Validate series and hierarchy

Select series, specify the data hierarchy

Define forecasting objectives

The Forecasting Workflow

Forecasting workflow

40

Forecast Server Demo

Toys data set

The goal is to forecast the number of toys that will
be sold in a week

Wine data set

The goal is to predict wine demand over four wine
types and four distribution regions

For more details contact presenter at:

Presenter: Andr de Waal
Phone: 1-919-531-6575
Email: andre.dewaal@sas.com