IT is manifestly ridiculous to think that strange beings (perhaps with tentacles, three eyes, or

infrared vision) are now blazing through the expanses of space in massive, nuclear powered
spaceships. But of course, many ideas that sounded absurd at first have actually turned out to be
true (e.g. black holes, dark matter and quantum mechanics). Lets put aside our immediate gut
reactions and dispassionately examine the evidence for the existence of alien life.
The Formation of Life

The theory of evolution tells us that given the right conditions (a sufficiently powerful source of
energy, the right kinds of atoms, etc.) life can form through a natural and essentially automatic
process. Scientists do not understand the precise details of how this occurred on our planet
(which shouldnt come as a surprise, given that the event happened billions of years ago on a
microscopic scale during a time when earth had a very different chemical composition then it
does today) but they do have reasonable conjectures. What seems very likely is that prior to life
there existed what we might call pre-life: simple, self-replicating molecules, the first of which
was formed by a lucky collision of atoms. These replicators would occasionally make errors
while copying themselves, which most of the time would be disastrous to the reproductive
capabilities of their offspring (destroying the possibility of further replication), but which every
so often would lead to slightly more efficient replicators. Of course, copying requires the use of
chemical materials, so the replicators would be in competition with each other for molecular
resources. Over time, through the processes of natural selection, those replicators that were most
efficient at surviving and copying themselves in the prevailing environment would spread wider
and faster than the others. Over many generations, the lineages of replicators that survived would
get progressively better suited for their environment, very slowly becoming what we would
recognize as life.
If this process of life generation can spontaneously begin on earth, then it can occur on any other
planet, assuming that the planet has sufficiently favorable conditions for a sufficiently long
period of time. In particular, since the laws of physics on earth appear to be precisely the same as
those that govern the rest of the universe, and since the universe looks to be approximately the
same in every direction, we should anticipate seeing other earth-like bodies distributed
throughout the universe (in terms of size, position within their solar systems, chemical
composition, etc), and we should expect that these planets have a probability of developing life
that is similar to the chance earth had. It may be possible that life could take forms that are
difficult for us even to imagine, occurring on astronomical bodies that are not very much like
earth at all, but since life occurred once on a earth-like planet, earth-like planets are our best
guess for where we can expect to find alien life.
It is estimated that there are far more than a trillion planets in the universe, providing a
staggering number of opportunities for life to begin. Furthermore, the universe is more than 13
billion years old, so there has been an enormous amount of time for life creating processes to
take place. Given enough planets, it is inevitable that at least one will be sufficiently like our
early earth to house life. Given enough time, it is inevitable that life will eventually form on such

a planet. Hence, the spontaneous formation of life on earth indicates that life very likely exists
elsewhere in the universe, though estimating the actual probabilities involved is tricky. The
question of exactly how much life has existed in our universe can be reduced to a question that
can be studied empirically through scientific means. Essentially, one needs to calculate how
many planets (or other astronomical bodies) in our universe today are likely to have undergone
long periods during which conditions were suitable for life to begin. Unfortunately however,
even with the best telescopes our ability to peer through the vast expanses of space is severely
limited, and our understanding of planet formation and evolution is far from complete, so this
question is unlikely to be adequately answered for a long time. Ultimately though, the question
of the existence of aliens is a scientific one, and therefore we should expect scientists rather than
philosophers to eventually have the greatest insight into its answer.
Traveling Through the Universe

Some people believe that intelligent life is unlikely to exist outside of our planet, because if it
did, we likely would have encountered it by now. This belief reflects an ignorance of the
incredible size and spaciousness of the universe. To give an illuminating example, suppose that
humans were interested in traveling to the star (other than the sun) that is the closest to our earth.
This star is Proxima Centauri (a red dwarf, it turns out), at a distance of about 4.2 light years
from earth. That means that if a space shuttle traveled to Proxima and back at the speed of light,
8.4 years would have elapsed on earth by the time they returned. In practice though, the
equations of Einsteins theory of relativity tell us that it would take an infinite amount of energy
to get a massive object to move at light speed. We therefore might employ the more realistic
assumption that the space shuttle traveled at about 25% of the speed of light (or, as a physicist
would say, 0.25 C). This would still be an incredible scientific achievement, considering that it is
about 37,000 times the speed of the fastest plane. To get a space shuttle (weighing, say, 24,000
kg like some space shuttles do today) going at this speed would require a minimum (assuming
perfect efficiency in converting potential energy to kinetic energy) of about 67 million terra
joules (actually, slightly more, taking into account relativistic effects), which is approximately
280 times the energy released by the most powerful nuclear weapon ever created. Of course,
naively setting off 280 nuclear weapons of this kind would be far more likely to kill all life on
earth than to get an object close to the size of a space shuttle traveling at the desired speed. As a
matter of fact, the process would have to progress rather slowly. Since the human body is limited
in the amount of acceleration it can withstand (before blood pools heavily in the legs, and
worse), it would take a minimum of 15 days of accelerating to get up to this enormous velocity
(unless drastic means were taken, such as keeping the astronauts submerged in fluid during
acceleration). In the end, even with the stupendous speed of 25% of the speed of light, a journey
to Proxima and back would take over 33 years from the point of view of someone on earth, more
than a third of a human life span, and long enough to ruin all of ones personal relationships. And
let us not forget, all this would get us is a roundtrip voyage to our second closest star! The
universe is an extremely spacious place, and even for an alien civilization far more advanced
than ours, it would take an enormous amount of time to explore even a single galaxy, let alone
the more than a hundred billion galaxies that are thought to exist. Our own milky way galaxy is

thought to contain approximately one hundred billion stars, and from the point of view of
someone on earth, a traveler moving at the speed of light would take approximately 26,000 years
to reach earth from our galaxys center. In particular, this means that aliens located at our
galaxys center could not possibly be aware of the first human radio broadcasts for many
thousands of more years. Finding alien civilizations, and exploring a galaxy is long, hard work!
There is an important point to be made about the way in which Einsteins theory of relativity
relates to travel at speeds approaching that of light. Because of an effect known as time dilation,
time literally moves slower for a traveler that accelerates than it does for the people (or should I
say creatures?) on the travelers home planet. At speeds like 25% the speed of light, the effect is
a rather minor one, but at 99% the speed of light or faster it is very pronounced. In a sense, this
provides a space travel loophole, because an alien could theoretically travel extremely long
distances at close to the speed of light without aging very much (though, the rest of the universe
would continue to age normally of course, so their loved ones would probably die off before they
returned from their journey). For example, while a trip from our galactic center to earth would
take about 26,000 years for a traveler moving at the speed of light from the point of view of
someone still on earth, from the point of view of the traveler himself the journey would feel
almost instantaneous. The trouble with using this method for space travel, however, is that the
closer to the speed of light one wants to travel, the more energy is required to do so (with, as we
have said, an infinite amount of energy being needed to travel at light speed exactly). Hence,
time dilation comes at the price of dramatically increased energy requirements. It is also
probably worth mentioning that a ship traveling at these sort of speeds would be insanely
difficult to navigate. There would be very little time to change course to avoid any interstellar
objects, and at the speed of even only 25% the speed of light, a rather small piece of rock or ice
carries an enormously destructive amount of momentum. All this being sent, with phenomenal
technology, an enormously plentiful energy source, lots of time for acceleration, incredibly good
navigation systems, no desire ever to return home again, and a lot of luck, aliens might be able to
get from planet to planet quickly without aging very much in the process. The amount of aging
they would undergo on such journeys depends on how close to the speed of light they can get
without destroying themselves or using up their energy source. A hypothetical method that has
been proposed for achieving speeds close to that of light is the Bussard ramjet, which involves
using powerful electromagnetic fields to harvest free floating space particles during flight, and
converting them to energy with a fusion powered rocket.
What about traveling at speeds beyond that of light? Unfortunately, as far as physicists can tell,
no object can ever go faster than light. Of course, we can never rule out the possibility that
science not yet discovered will one day allow that possibility, but the extremely well validated
theory of relativity currently denies it. That being said, there are at least a couple of ways that the
light speed constraint can theoretically be circumvented without actually breaking the ultimate
speed limit, but they may not be of any practical use.
Quantum theory predicts the existence of wormholes, which are essentially open passages that
connect two points in spacetime. While wormholes have as of yet never been observed directly,

they may exist at an extremely small scale, popping into existence for miniscule amounts of time
and bridging together very short spacetime distances. Expanding or creating large wormholes,
getting them to stabilize for reasonably long periods, and controlling which parts of spacetime
they connect are currently very far beyond the scope of modern science. It could easily turn out
that worm holes are essentially useless from a space travelers perspective, no matter how
advanced technology has become. Some initial calculations done by physicists of what it would
take to create a useful wormhole make demands that are probably beyond the scope of ANY
civilization. Some physicists have argued that large, stable wormholes could already exist strewn
throughout the universe, a consequence of the inflation of the universe after the big bang. While
wormholes like these could potentially be useful for interstellar travel, locating them and actually
getting to them could itself be extremely difficult, and since their pathways would already be
determined they would not provide much flexibility to a traveler. It is worth mentioned that these
strange tunnels can cut through time as well as through space, transporting a traveler into the past
while at the same time altering his position (though a wormhole could not take you back to a
time prior to when it was created).
Another, totally different way that the speed constraint of relativity is sometimes circumvented is
through the phenomenon known as quantum tunneling, where tiny particles jump locations
approximately instantaneously. Unfortunately though, this is inherently an unpredictable process,
and therefore not useful for controlled traveling. Whats more, like worm holes, this phenomenon
is only known to happen at miniature scales, far smaller than even a single celled organism. In
the macroscopic world of massive objects like people and spaceships, quantum tunneling is
never observed.
As we have said, if aliens managed to achieve speeds nearing that of light, they would be able to
explore the planets of their galaxy without aging a great deal. However, from the point of view of
planet earth the process would still be extremely slow (the aliens would experience time dilation
due to their enormous acceleration, causing time to run more slowly for them than usual, but we
would age at our normal pace). If, for example, there were aliens at the center of our galaxy
traveling at almost the speed of light directly towards earth, they might find earth in what to them
is a few years, but what for us is more than 500 generations. Hence, even if aliens knew where
we were located, had a desire to get to us, and didnt care about ever returning home (after all,
their own civilization might be extinct by the time they returned) we would be waiting an
enormous amount of time before they got here. By the time they arrived so much time would
elapsed that our planet might be destroyed, or our technology might have become as good as
their own (making us a potential threat). Unless an alien civilization was lucky (or unlucky)
enough to have evolved on a planet very nearby us (by which I mean, within a few dozen light
years), even discovering where we are located would be highly problematic. While it is true that
the radio waves that we transmit travel at the speed of light, and might potentially be detected by
another civilization, these signals grow dramatically weaker as they propagate away from earth,
and by the time they are a hundred light years out may be extremely hard to detect (especially
when mingled with many natural interstellar sources of noise).

It is probably worth mentioning that there are some reasons to think that aliens might not travel
all that much around their galaxies even after they are able achieve speeds near that of light. For
one thing, humans already have the technology to destroy all life on earth, and we arent yet
anywhere close to having ships that can quickly carry humans through interstellar space. It may
well be the case that most alien civilizations that exist destroy themselves long before gaining
these capabilities. If, as seems to be the case, creating massively devastating weapons is much
easier than near light speed travel, civilizations might generally not last long enough to travel.
On the other hand, if near light speed travel is sufficiently difficult to achieve (requiring, say
hundreds of thousands of years of research by modern humans), then species might tend to be
destroyed by natural disasters (such as supernova) before acquiring the technology. What is
more, it is interesting to consider the role that virtual reality would likely play in an extremely
technologically advanced civilization. If essentially any experience can be had virtually, the need
felt to travel outside of ones own planet (let alone, to ever leave the virtually constructed world)
may become limited. Once a civilization comes to construct and accept a virtual world that
accurately simulates experiences, but in which one can create or do whatever one one wishes
(perhaps even invoke pleasurable feelings upon command), how much time would creatures
really choose to spend in the real world?
Aliens Here On Earth?

What is a person to make of the innumerable tales of alien abductions, alien autopsies, crop
circles, and spaceship sightings that have been floating around since the 1940s? While it is
impossible to examine every single one of these cases (there are far too many), upon close
examination every case that I know of that was thoroughly investigated did not provide solid
evidence for alien life on earth. Most of the alien abduction stories come with no corroborating
evidence whatsoever (only witness testimony), and most of them occur just after (or during)
sleep. Hence, it is impossible to rule out the very mundane explanations of lucid dreaming, sleep
paralysis, deliberate fraud, misperception, drug use, illness, and psychosis as explanations for
these alleged experiences. Once the idea of aliens became popularized back in the 1950s alien
creatures began to appear in great numbers in peoples dreams and hallucinations. As far as crop
circles go, those have essentially been debunked as the work of mischievous (and creative)
humans. A number of UFO sightings have turned out to be either unusual aircraft (such as air
balloons), normal aircraft flying in formation, normal aircraft with unusual lighting,
meteorological events, or tricks of the nighttime sky coupled with human perception errors.
While many UFO sightings have gone unexplained, a lack of explanation is a far cry from
proving that aliens are here on earth as there are dozens of possible explanations for a person
claiming to see moving lights in the sky. In order to prove a point, professional skeptic James
Randi once claimed on a radio show to have just seen a UFO. People began calling into the
show, claiming also to have seen the same UFO that evenining, unaware that he had made the
sighting up. Unfortunately, even photos of UFOs do not provide good evidence as they can
easily be forged (in fact, many of them are known to have been), or are ambiguous as to their
interpretation. As far as alien autopsy videos go, those I have seen are obvious or known fakes
(like the alleged Roswell autopsy video). Essentially, there doesnt seem to be any strong

evidence behind the alien sighting phenomenon, and it is clear that there is an enormous amount
of human psychology involved. Even if aliens are on earth, the vast majority of alleged alien
sightings are undoubtedly not genuine. Until actual alien technology is found (that has a function
or material composition unachievable with human technology), an alien is actually detained, or
video of aliens is taken that could not have been forged using computer generated imaging, it is
wise to remain skeptical of stories about aliens.
An important point to keep in mind is that the fastest way that aliens have to discover that
intelligent life exists on earth is to detect the radio or microwave signals that we produce.
However, if the aliens home planet is hundreds of light years away then our earliest signals
would not even have reached them by now! In particular, since the invention of radio is less than
150 years old, the only possible civilizations that could have discovered that there is intelligent
life on earth must be within 150 light years of us. Even worse, if aliens travel at a maximum
speed of 25% of the speed of light, the only way that they could have both detected our signals
and traveled to earth is if they were within 30 light years of earth when we first started
broadcasting, which is a very tiny sphere compared to the size of our galaxy.
Contacting Aliens
While it is very unlikely that aliens have arrived here already, if humans continue to exist for another
one hundred thousand years (admittedly a somewhat dubious prospect), it would not be terribly
surprising if contact with aliens occurred at some point, most likely through electromagnetic signals
rather than through direct face to face contact. Astronomers have now broadcasted messages into
space, designed specifically to be detected and interpreted by technologically advanced aliens.
Because of their design, these signals are more likely to be detected and properly interpreted than
ordinary radio or television broadcasts. Unfortunately, contact with aliens may well be a very bad
idea from the point of view of human survival. While aliens could potentially be friendly, there is
reason to expect the opposite. Evolution, wherever it occurs, is a highly competitive process,
requiring creatures to kill each other for resources. As essentially all creatures on earth (including
humans) have many selfish and exploitative tendencies, it seems likely that aliens will as well. Under
natural circumstances, creature that are too altruistic tend to be taken advantage of by more selfish
individuals, and hence weeded out of the gene pool.
If humans are detected by an alien civilization in the next hundred years, the aliens will almost
certainly have far superior technology to our own (by the very fact that they are able to detect us at
all), and therefore could likely annihilate us with ease if they felt we might one day be a threat. With
sufficiently powerful technology, for example, they could launch a weapon at us at near light speed.
By the time we could even detect such an object (if indeed we would be able to detect it at all), there
would be little time for us to understand it or react to prevent our destruction. The sad truth is that
much of the time when groups of humans have encountered those who are much less technologically
advanced than themselves (but who, nonetheless, are in control of useful resources), the weaker
group has been suppressed, enslaved, or annihilated. Just look, for example, at the colonization of
North America and Africa by Europeans. Unfortunately, it is not terribly unlikely that aliens would be
similar to us in this regard. Even if there were only a 30% that the aliens would decide to kill us all,

would that really be worth the risk? One thing to keep in mind is that if aliens do ever receive our
signals and choose to respond to them in kind, the wise thing for them to do would be to obscure the
origin of their messages, perhaps by reflecting them off of astronomical objects (to avoid the danger
that we one day develop technologically strong enough to harm them). Hence, it is unlikely that
contact with advanced aliens will actually allow us to identify their location.
Conclusion

While technologically advanced alien life is quite likely to exist elsewhere in the universe, it
seems that it would be very difficult for these creatures to travel to earth, and perhaps even detect
our existence in the first place. Moreover, if they did try to travel to us, it would almost certainly
take an extremely long time (from our point of view) for them to make the journey. Finally, if
aliens do visit us, there are reasons to think that the visit may be hostile. Unfortunately (or,
perhaps quite fortunately) our only interactions with aliens in the next hundred years will almost
certainly be only in our imaginations.