x

core

Field major
(kierunkow
y)

electi
ve
Specializatio
n
(specjalistyc
zny)

langu
ages
other

azarski University
Syllabus
2015-2016
1. Module Title
Strategic Games
2. Module Code
SG_kD-01_Sm(pol)9, SG_kD-01_Sm9
3.1. Year, sem.

2016-17
Spring
3.2. ECTS, contact hours
5
30
4.1 Module type; language
Discussion seminar
English
4.2.Module category
5.1 Aims
The courses main objective is to introduce students to the subject of strategic games
and help them to learn about the advantages and pitfalls of forecasting in the field of
international relations and security studies. It seeks to provide students with basic
tools of analyzing and understanding current strategic environment and its possible
evolution in the short and mid-term perspective.
5.2 Learning Outcomes:
By the end of the course the student will be able to:
5.2.1. Knowledge
Learning outcome code
Verification methods
Of the module
In the field (kierunkowy)
1.

2.

Will gain significant knowledge of the current strategic environment and its
possible evolution.
K_W04
K_W05
Participation, midterm, paper, Participation in scenario
Will be able to use research tools to carry out analyses, forecasts and
international simulations.
K_W07
Participation, midterm, paper, Participation in scenario
5.2.2.Skills
Learning outcome code
Verification methods
Of the module
In the field (kierunkowy)

3.

Will be able to trace the cause-effect relationships in international relations,

1

and accurately predict international processes and phenomena using strategic

games.

4.

K_U02
K_U04
Participation, midterm, paper, Participation in scenario
Will know how to synthesize information in order to formulate a coherent
and convincing argument in favor of specific solutions, apply them to the policy
making process, and anticipate their negative and positive effects.
K_U03
K_U05
Participation, midterm, paper, Participation in scenario
5.2.3. Social competences
Learning outcome code
Verification methods
Of the module
In the field (kierunkowy)

5.

6.

Will have the ability to predict the sequence of international events and their
social impact, as well as to properly define the priorities for implementing the set
goals.
K_K03
Participation, midterm, paper, Participation in scenario
Will be characterized by thoughtful evaluation and the ability to draw conclusions
from political and economic events and be able to utilize them in social life taking
on a variety of roles.
K_K02
Participation, midterm, paper, Participation in scenario
6. Module Coordinator
Dr. Micha Ku
7. Lecturer (s), email, office hours
Dr Micha Ku, michal.kuz@lazarski.pl
Duty Hours: Tuesday 11.15 A.M. 12.45 P. M. and by appointment
Sector F, 9th Floor, main office space (7a)
8. Level, year, Semester, Programme
Level
Year
Semester
Programme
BA/MA
2016-17
III
MA in International Relations
9. Teaching Approach, Contact Hours, Hours for Students Individual Work
2

#
Dates of Classes
Topics Covered During Classes
Hours
Lecture
1) 10.10
Introductory remarks. Outline of useful internet sources on strategic
games and forecasting. Types of games. Advantages and disadvantages
of forecasting. Introduction to writing paper policy.
2) 17.10
Thinking about unthinkable, Black Swans and their implication for a
decision-maker;
Nassim N. Taleb, The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly
Improbable, Pengiun Books, London 2010, pp. 1-50. [ See file]
Daniel W. Drezner, How not to take political scientists seriously,
http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/27/how_not_to_take_political_scie
ntists_seriously
3) 24.10
Decision making and bad forecasts in international relations;
Paul DAnieri, International Politics: Power and Purpose, Third Edition,
Wordsworth, Boston 2010, pp. 161-190. [See file]

4) 07.11
Prospect Theory and forecasting.
Daniel Kahnem and Amos Tversky, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision
under Risk, Econometrica, 47(2): 263-292 1979. [See zasoby]
5) 14.11
Looking into the future World in 2030 worst and best case-scenarios;
Global Trends 2030, A World Transformed National Intelligence Council 2012:
https://globaltrends2030.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/global-trends-2030november2012.pdf, pp. i-73.
6) 21.11
United States, European Union and Russia in mid-term perspective;
George Friedman, Next Decade, Doubleday, New York 2011. pp. 1-29, 105-166.
[See file]
7) 28.11
Do civilizations clash?
Samuel P Huntington, Clash of Civilizations?, Foreign Affairs 72 (3): 22-49 1993.
[See zasoby]
60 minutes, in class exam
3

8) 05.12
Why do states go to war? How does domestic politics impact foreign
polices?
David Sobek, Machiavelli's Legacy: Domestic Politics and International Conflict,
International Studies Quarterly 49 (2): 179-204 2005. [See zasoby]
Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way. 2010. Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid
Regimes after the Cold War, Cambridge University Press, New York 2010, pp. 135, 89-129. [See file]
9) 12.12
A new war in Europe? Scenarios for the game and presentations.
Paul Goble, Putin Believes He Can Win a War with NATO:
http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-believes-he-can-win-a-war-with-natopiontkovsky-says/.
Jeffrey Tayler, Putin's Nuclear Option:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/04/putins_nuclear_option_russia_w
eapons.
10)
09.01
US-China War?
David C. Gompert, Astrid Cevallos, Cristina L. Garafola, War with China
Thinking Through the Unthinkable:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html
11)
16.01
The war against the Islamic state.
Gareth Stansfield, The Islamic State, the Kurdistan Region and the future of Iraq:
assessing UK policy options, International Affairs, 90 (6): 1329-1350, 2014. [See
zasoby]
Dan De Luce, Is the U.S. Ready for an Endless War Against the Islamic State:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/27/is-the-u-s-ready-for-an-endless-war-againstthe-islamic-state/. [See zasoby]
12)
23.01
Review
13)

FINAL EXAM (TBA)

2,5 h each topic

Together30 hours
Workshop
1
N/A
Workshop in Computer Lab
1
N/A
10. Students Individual Work
Topics / Issues Covered by Students on Their Own
1
1) Searching the internet for trustworthy resources on given topics (i.e. strategic
and security studies; foreign policy; selected countries).
2) Collecting materials for writing a convincing policy paper.
3) Library Query and team-working for a strategic game that simulates policymaking decision process.
4) Reading assigned readings and preparing to discuss them in class

11. Initial Requirements

12. Compulsory Readings

Paul DAnieri International Politics: Power and Purpose, Third Edition, Wordsworth,
Boston 2010
Daniel W. Drezner, How not to take political scientists seriously:
http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/27/how_not_to_take_political_scientists
_seriously.
Dan De Luce, Is the U.S. Ready for an Endless War Against the Islamic State:
6

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/27/is-the-u-s-ready-for-an-endless-war-against-theislamic-state/. [See zasoby]

George Friedman, Next Decade, Doubleday, New York 2011.
Frank G. Hoffman, Hybrid Warfare and Challenges:
http://www.potomacinstitute.org/attachments/120_Hoffman_JFQ_109.pdf.
Paul Goble, Putin Believes He Can Win a War with NATO:
http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-believes-he-can-win-a-war-with-natopiontkovsky-says/.
Global Trends 2030, A World Transformed National Intelligence Council
2012:https://globaltrends2030.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/global-trends-2030november2012.pdf.
David C. Gompert, Astrid Cevallos, Cristina L. Garafola, War with China
Thinking Through the Unthinkable:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html
Daniel Kahnem and Amos Tversky, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under
Risk, Econometrica, 47(2): 263-292 1979.
Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way. 2010. Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid
Regimes after the Cold War, Cambridge University Press, New York 2010 (fragments).
David Sobek, Machiavelli's Legacy: Domestic Politics and International Conflict,
International Studies Quarterly 49 (2): 179-204 2005.
Gareth Stansfield, The Islamic State, the Kurdistan Region and the future of Iraq:
assessing UK policy options, International Affairs, 90 (6): 1329-1350, 2014. [See
zasoby]
Jeffrey Tayler, Putin's Nuclear Option:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/04/putins_nuclear_option_russia_weapo
ns
Nassim N. Taleb The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,
Penguin Books, London 2008.
Kenneth Waltz, Why Iran Should get the Bomb:
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137731/kenneth-n-waltz/why-iran-should-getthe-bomb
Kurt Weyland, The Diffusion of Revolution: '1848' in Europe and Latin America,
International
Organization 63(3): 391-423 2009.
13. Additional Readings
Daniel W. Drezner, How not to take political scientists seriously:
http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/27/how_not_to_take_political_scientists
_seriously.
Niall Ferguson, Civilization: The West and the Rest, Penguin Press, New York 2011.

George Friedman, The Next 100 Years, a Forecast for the 21st Century, Doubleday,
New York 2009
Global Trends 2030, A World Transformed National Intelligence Council 2012:
https://globaltrends2030.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/global-trends-2030november2012.pdf, pp. i-73.
Oskar Kreijci, Geopolitics of The Central European Region, Publishing House of the
Slovak
Academy of Sciences, Bratislava 2007 (fragments).
James M. Goldgeier, The Future of NATO, Council on Foreign Relations Report 2010:
http://www.cfr.org/nato/future-nato/p21044
Joshua Keating, The 10 Worst Predictions for 2010, Foreign Policy:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/12/17/the_10_worst_predictions_for_2010?
page=full
14. Assessment Criteria
Coursework 60%: in-class mid-term exam (30%), paper (30%)
Final Exam: 40%.

15. Passing Criteria

To pass the course a student must score at least 40% of the overall weighted average
and not less than 35% for paper and final. Lower mark leads to a re-sit exam for the
failed component

16. Balance of ECTS Credits and students Workload

Forms of Activities
Average Number of Hours
Credits
Contact Hours
Lecture

Workshop

Seminar
30
1

Other Computer Seminar / On-line Workshops

8

Student own work

Preparation for classes
50
2

Preparation for exams

Writing papers/projects
50
2

Total
130
5
17. Place of teaching
LU campus
18. Other remarks