A Failed State No More: Somalias Waning War

March 1, 2015 Giacomo Tognini, Berkeley Political Review

Sleek Boeing 737-800s operated by Turkish Airlines fly into Mogadishus gleaming new international
airport as patients flock to the recently refurbished Erdoan hospital, the best-equipped medical center
in East Africa. Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda affiliate that has terrorized Somalia for eight years, is in
tatters and on the run from a legitimate federal government that is expanding its writ across the
country. Welcome to Somalia in 2015, a far cry from the stereotypical failed state that the international
community has known for the last 24 years.
Ravaged by civil war since the collapse of Mohamed Siad Barres dictatorial rule in 1991, Somalia
spent the 90s embroiled in a conflict between vicious warlords, a period immortalized by the hit
blockbuster Black Hawk Down. The war took a turn for the worse in 2006 when previously disparate
warlords united their forces and founded the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a jihadist group intent on
overtaking the weak transitional government. In response, the government allied with the Raskamboni
movement, a warlord militia from southern Somalia, as well as Ahlu Sunna Waljamaa (ASWJ), a Sufi
militant group opposed to the ICUs Salafist ideology, to combat the ICUs attack.
With the help of Ethiopian intervention, the ICU was defeated in 2009, as many of its warlords agreed
to join the transitional government in a power-sharing deal that guaranteed the same number of seats
in parliament for each of the countrys major clans. However, one splinter group, al-Shabaab, instead
decided to embrace a violent fundamentalist ideology and to embark upon a wider war against the
state. The militant groups onslaught of coordinated assaults and terrorist attacks led to its conquest of
almost all of southern and central Somalia by 2009.
Fast forward three years to 2012 and Somalia held an indirect presidential election on its soil for the
first time in its history. The last election, in 2009, was conducted in Djibouti; while only one
candidatedictator Mohamed Siad Barrecontested the 1986 election. However, much like in 2009,
the election was decided by newly appointed, unelected members of parliament. Hassan Sheikh
Mohamud, a prominent political activist, defeated his opponent and former leader of the ICU, Sharif
Sheikh Ahmed, in a resounding second-round victory with 70.6% of the votes. Since his election,
Mohamud has re-established a banking system that Somalia had lacked for decades, convinced the UN
to end its 21-year arms embargo on the country, and armed the Somali military to effectively combat
militants. He has also forged a host of bilateral agreements that have yielded tangible results, such as
the Turkish-built airport and hospital in Mogadishu.
The years since the election have transformed Somalia from a lawless country governed by Islamist
terrorists to an increasingly stable state close to ending a seemingly endless civil war. Al-Shabaab,
which means The Youth in Arabic, is at its lowest point since its inception in 2006. An American
drone strike killed the groups leader, Ahmed Abdi Godane, in September 2014, and Zakariya Ismail
Hersi, its Chief of Intelligence, surrendered to federal police last December. The African Union
Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), a coalition of Ugandan, Burundian, Ethiopian, Djiboutian, and Sierra
Leonean armed forces, has battled al-Shabaab since 2007. In 2011, Kenya intervened unilaterally
against the group, before joining AMISOM in 2012.
In 2011, Mogadishu was recaptured by government force and Kismayo, a large port city in the south
and the former headquarters of the insurgency, was liberated in 2012. That same year, the transitional
federal government approved a new constitution and established a permanent government in the
capital. Operation Indian Ocean, launched in August 2014 by AMISOM, seized almost all of alShabaabs coastal territory and decimated its leadership, aided by U.S. drone strikes operating from
neighboring Djibouti. As of February 2015, nearly all of the groups leaders are either dead, captured,
or have surrendered.*
AMISOM is a case of how close regional cooperation can achieve consistent military success against
powerful and long-lasting insurgencies, while also building up the policing capacity of the nation that
is being aided. All of Somalias neighbors have an interest in its stability, especially nations such as
Uganda and Kenya who have suffered horrific terror attacks at the hands of al-Shabaab. AMISOMs
campaigns have had realistic and defined targets: rolling back al-Shabaabs rule first from Mogadishu,
then from major cities, followed by the coast, and finally the countryside.
At a time when leaders around the world are struggling to devise strategies to defeat the brutal
militants of Boko Haram in Nigera and the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, Somalias ongoing success
is a useful lesson on how to breathe life back into a failed state. Much like other war-torn countries,

Somalia has consistently been divided by clans and warlordsmany with competing ambitions for
power. The governments decision to bring several warlords into the fold from the ashes of the ICU
helped bring swathes of warlord-controlled territory back into government hands. Specifically, the
governments alliance in 2006 with the Raskamboni movement and the ASWJ gave the government
both territorial and religious legitimacy as the formers leaders held sway in the Islamist-controlled
regions and the latter provided pious Somalis an alternative to the poisonous fundamentalism of alShabaab. The intervention of AMISOM also gave the then-failed state a professional fighting force
that pushed back the insurgency, while Kenyas entry in 2011 dislodged the terrorists from major
cities.
Since the start of the civil war, Somalia has been divided into numerous autonomous entities. Today,
all but one recognizes the federal government and has agreed to a federal structure for the country.
Moreover, as the central government has regained control of the south and center of the country, so too
have corresponding state authorities. For example, the state of Jubaland, formerly dominated by alShabaab, was established and recognized in August 2013. While this is another mark of Somalias
recent success, the exception to the rule is Somaliland, an unrecognized de facto independent country
that split in 1991 as war engulfed the rest of the nation. Somaliland has long been more stable,
prosperous, and democratic than Somalia, though it is currently at war with Khatumoa constituent
state of Somaliaand continues to refuse any proposal to rejoin the Somali federation. Somaliland has
even been accused of supporting al-Shabaab to undermine its rival in Mogadishu.
Despite its considerable success, there are still several challenges Somalia must confront before it can
cast off its turbulent history. Somalilands place in the new Somalia is yet to be determined, and could
still lead to further war and destabilization. Militias such as the ASWJ and Raskamboni, while
currently allied with the government, could split and return to war against the state once the common
enemy of al-Shabaab has been defeated, as happened with militias in Libya after the fall of Gaddafi.
With its recently appointed cabinet of ministers, Somalia will have to face all of these challenge,
among many others, before it can return to complete stability for the first time in the 21st century.
However, its trajectory in recent years gives hope that the country will finally shake off its status as
the worlds quintessential failed state.
President Mohamuds ambitious Vision 2016 project calls for a constitutional referendum and free and
fair elections by the end of 2016. This task is achievable, but the vote could still be disrupted by
remnants of al-Shabaab who will seek to intimidate voters if they are still active when it is held.
Next year, Somalia could hold its first democratic election in history as bloodstained buildings may
give way to ink-stained fingers in a country that has for too long been trapped in a cycle of violent
conflict. After fourteen years of ceaseless bloodshed, Somalia is finally emerging from the shadows of
failed statehood to reclaim its place among the nations of the world.
* List of incapacitated al-Shabaab leaders:
Fazul Abdullah Mohamed: Top military commander and al-Qaeda leader in East Africa, killed in June
2011
Hassan Dahir Aweys: Spiritual leader, arrested in June 2013
Ibrahim al-Afghani/Ibrahim Haji Jama Meeaad: Leading member and administrator of Kismayo,
executed by al-Shabaab in June 2013
Abul Hamid Hashi Olhayi: Senior commander and co-founder, executed by al-Shabaab in June 2013
Omar Shafik Hammami/Abu Mansoor al-Amriki: Commander, propagandist, and recruiter, killed by
al-Shabaab in September 2013
Mohamed Said Atom: Leading member and warlord, surrendered in June 2014
Mukhtar Robow/Abu Mansur: Leading member and spokesperson, expelled from al-Shabaab in
August 2014
Ahmed Abdi Godane/Mukhtar Abu Zubair: Emir and leader of al-Shabaab, killed in September 2014
Zakariya Ismail Hersi/Hassan Abdullah Hersi al-Turki: Intelligence Chief, surrendered in December
2014
Tahliil Abdishakur: Head of Amniyat elite intelligence and operations unit, killed in December 2014
Yusuf Dheeq: Chief of External Operations, killed in January 2015