ENGR2140U Problem Solving,

Modeling and Simulation

Lecture-11

So far.

Introduction about the course

Project definition
What is the definition of problem
Real world problems
Effective problem thinkers
Good 6 habits
Tools: Microsoft Project, IDEF0, Flow
Diagram, Formal Languages

So far.

Risk assessment
Paradigm shift
Accident Investigation as problem solving
Exxon Valdez
Common contributors to accidents
Problem solving process, 5 steps
Heuristic Approach
Process Chart

So far.

How to define a problem

Data collection
Triggers
Brainstorming
Fishbone
Solution generation
K-T Analysis, PA, DA,PPA

So far.

Petri Nets
Decision Trees, Binary Decision Trees
FTA
ETA
Solution implementation
Approval
Planning

Step 4: Implementing the Solution

Evaluate Solution
Implement Solution
Decide Course of Action
Generate Solutions
Define the Problem

BEWARE!

Do not get stalled in the problem

solving process by analyzing
things to death!
At some point, you have to
implement the solution!
Four Phases of Implementation:
1. Approval
2. Planning
3. Carry through
4. Follow up

Lets examine
these in turn

1. Approval
In some cases, the first step to
implementation is getting approval from
your organization to proceed with the
selected solution.
You may have to sell your ideas to
management:
What you want to do
Why you want to do it
How you are going to do it
How your project will benefit the organization

Selling your Ideas

Some advice:
Avoid technical jargon
Make presentation flow in a logical and
orderly manner
Be concise (avoid small details)
Anticipate questions and be prepared to
answer
Be prepared (and confident) enough to say I dont
have the answer for this right now, but I will find it
for you.

Be enthusiastic about your ideas

Document the Approval

Make sure that the approval you get is well
documented:
Written (memo preferable)
Signed
Approved by person with proper level of
authority
All aspects have been clearly communicated
and understood (in writing)

Business Process Approval

Automation
Notifications
Approvals hierarchy, budget
Risk management, MOC

2. Planning
Once you have approval, the most
important step of implementation is
planning.
The best way to plan is to sketch the
pathway through to the finished solution.
There are many ways to plan
Let us build upon concepts we already are
familiar with.

Planning

KT
Situation
Analysis

Gantt and
Deployment
Charts

Time &
Resource
Allocation

Critical
Path
Management

KT Potential
Problem
Analysis

Necessary
Resources

Steps to Planning
We can use a form of KT Situation
Analysis to help identify critical elements
and prioritize them.
Gantt charts, deployment charts, critical
path charts, budgets, etc. will help us do
time and resource allocation.
We can use a form of KT Potential
Problem Analysis to help us identify what
could go wrong

Budget Approval Cycle

Authorization for expenditure
Budget planning
Budget utilization

Example: CANDU Steam

Generator Tube Scaling
Assume that there is scale buildup
(fouling) in CANDU steam generator
piping that is reducing the efficiency of the
steam generator.
In a CANDU, the primary side circuit
contains heavy water (and radioactive
tritium), and the secondary side contains
normal water.

600 MW
Steam
Generator

Steam Generator Tubing

H2O scale

D2O scale

Gantt Chart

The Gantt chart relates the task to timeframe.

Now, whos going to do the work?

Deployment Chart
Team Member
Task

1. Disassemble heat
exchanger
2. Analyze the scale
and find extent
3. Determine best
way to remove scale
4. Arrange for scale
to be removed
5. Reassemble heat
exchanger

Worker
A

Worker
B

Worker
C

Worker
D

Advisor
Everyone
Advisor

Now, what are the bottlenecks in the process?

Critical Path
Critical path analysis helps to identify
critical points in the process.
Critical points are generally readily
identified as tasks that will cause a
substantial delay in the implementation of
a solution if the schedule is not met.

Cleaning the Heat Exchanger

The water-based mineral scales are
normally cleaned using high pressure
water jets. Both sides are water-based.
However, on the primary side, there is
tritium, which means that a number of
radiation protection precautions must be
used (SCBA [Self Contained Breathing
Apparatus], protective suits, gloves) and
special sampling procedures must be
followed.

Disassemble
heat
exchanger

Don PPE

Sample
D2O
scale

Determine
extent
D2O scale

Sample
H2O
scale

Recover
D2O and 3H
water

Determine
extent
H2O scale
Remove
H2O
scale

Critical Path

Remove
D2O
scale

Reassemble
heat
exchanger

Ensure critical path items

do not lag schedule

Necessary Resources

Resources generally fall into 5 different

categories:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Available personnel;
Equipment;
Travel;
Supplies; and
Overhead

You may also want to incorporate

contingency funds (a percentage of the
budget for unforeseen expenditures)

Personnel
Worker A
Worker B
Worker C
Worker D
Supervisor
Subtotal - salaries

Sample
Budget

Days
10
10
10
10
10

Daily rate
$640.00
$640.00
$640.00
$640.00
$880.00

Cost
% Budget
$6,400.00
$6,400.00
$6,400.00
$6,400.00
$8,800.00
$34,400.00
33.8%

Fringe benefits (18.5%)

TOTAL Salray + Benefits

$6,364.00
$40,764.00

6.2%

Equipment
PPE
High pressure sprayers

$2,000.00
$10,000.00

2.0%
9.8%

$8,000.00

7.9%

$500.00
$500.00

0.5%
0.5%

Travel
Attend sprayer training
Supplies
Sample bottles
Chemicals
Sub-Total

$61,764.00

Overhead (65%)

$40,146.60

39.4%

TOTAL BUDGET

$101,910.60

100.0%

Personnel
Worker A
Worker B
Worker C
Worker D
Supervisor
Subtotal - salaries

Sample
Budget
with
Contingency

Days
10
10
10
10
10

Cost
% Budget
$6,400.00
$6,400.00
$6,400.00
$6,400.00
$8,800.00
$34,400.00
32.7%

Fringe benefits (18.5%)

TOTAL Salray + Benefits

$6,364.00
$40,764.00

6.1%

Equipment
PPE
High pressure sprayers

$2,000.00
$10,000.00

1.9%
9.5%

$8,000.00

7.6%

$500.00
$500.00

0.5%
0.5%

Travel
Attend sprayer training
Supplies
Sample bottles
Chemicals

ODC = Other
Direct Cost
(not labour)

Daily rate
$640.00
$640.00
$640.00
$640.00
$880.00

Sub-Total

$61,764.00

Overhead (65%)

$40,146.60

38.2%

$3,150.00

3.0%

Contingency on ODCs (15%)

TOTAL BUDGET

$105,060.60

100.0%

3. Carry Through
This is the Just do it phase
For example, you may be:
Carrying out a design
Fabricating a product
Performing experiments
Doing calculations (finite difference; Monte
Carlo, etc)
Writing a report
etc etc etc

Monitor Progress
All the planning in the world will not
save you if the carry through phase is
done poorly
Various parameters of the carry through
must be monitored to ensure that the
goals of the project are being met.
Prevents problems from escalating

Monitoring Check-List
Find limits of solution (over- and under- estimate
the answer)
Make educated guess at solution
Conduct quick experiment to see if solution
works under simple conditions
Continue to learn more about the chosen
solution
Continue to validate the solution, and ensure
physical laws are not violated
Carefully plan computer simulations (as you
would a laboratory experiment)

Revealing the Solution

We can borrow ideas from Blooms
Taxonomy to make a recipe for carry
through.
Taxonomy: The science, laws or principles of
classification.
Benjamin Bloom (1913-1999): ground
breaking researcher in learning and
educational evaluation

Treat the problem as an onion

Blooms Taxonomic Approach

to
Problem - Solution
Carry Through

 Evaluation
Try to verify your solution(s)

Synthesis
Take all your ideas and formulate (synthesize) a way (or
ways) to test your solution(s)

Analysis
Apply rules & knowledge to the sub-problems to
generate solutions. Identify missing parts.

Application
Determine which sets of rules, principles and ideas
should be applied to the sub-problems.

Comprehension
Manipulation or extrapolation of knowledge to classify
into sub-problems.

Knowledge
Recalling previously learned material and using it (this is
used in each step of the unraveling).

Final words on Onions

The primary advantage to following this
type of carry through process is that it
allows us unravel the solution.
Unraveling the solution:
Completion of each step uncovers the next
step
By the time you have the onion
unraveled, the solution should be apparent.

More Final words on Onions

Shrek

4. Follow Up
Inspect what you Expect
Follow up to check that you are
Following the solution plan
Proceeding on schedule
Proceeding within budget
Producing acceptable quality
Tracking solution that is still relevant to the
original problem

Document progress (progress report)

Changing Problem Statements

If the goals keep changing, ask
yourself:
(a)Where did the goals come from
and why?
(b)Are the goals still appropriate to
the problem as originally defined?

Experiment and Simulation

In the coming weeks simulation and
modeling, using deterministic and
stochastic methods, will be covered by R.
Anderson.
Experimental design is a very important
part of problem solving that you will be
developing (along with improved modeling
and simulation skills) over the next few
years (and your lifetime).

Examine the
need for the
experiment

Define
objectives for
the experiment

Choose
responses to
measure

Identify the
important
variables

Design the
experiment

Basic Building
Blocks for
Experimental
Design
IMPORTANT: Error Analysis

Perform
experiment

Analyze
results

Act upon
results

Report !

Example
Implementation of safety and control
systems of process industry

Control System Implementation

Example
Implementing Disaster Management
System

Disaster Management System

Escalation
factor

Control of
Escalation

Control of
Escalation

Escalation
factor

Cause-1

Cons-1

Recovery
Recovery
preparednes
preparedness
s

Barriers to
prevent threat
Cause-2

Cause-3

Top
Event

Cons-2

Cons-3

Control of Threat
Excessive
Pressure
System
Strength Tested
Threat

Automatic High
Pressure
Shutdown
Barriers

Pressure Relief
Valve

Loss of
Containment
Top Event

Recovery Preparedness for a

Possible Consequence
Loss of
Containment
Leak Detection
and Alarm
Top Event
Blowdown
Facilities
Recovery
Preparedness
Measures

Ventilation
Ignition Sources
Control
Explosion
Consequence

Escalation Factors in Causation

and Their Control
Excessive
Pressure

System
Strength
Tested
Barrier

Automatic
High Pressure
Shutdown
Barrier

Pressure
Relief Valve
Barrier

Procedure

Administration

Control

Control

Down for
Maintenance
Escalation Factor

Root Valve Closed

Escalation Factor

Loss of
Containment

Escalation Factors in Recovery

Preparedness
Loss of
Containment

Leak
Detection
and Alarm

Preventive
Maintenance
Control

Sensor Failure
Escalation Factor

Blowdown
Facilities
Recovery

Ventilation

Procedural
Control

Down for
Maintenance
Escalation Factor

Ignition
Sources
Control
Recovery

Explosion

Crisis & Emergency Models

Emergency
Response Centre
Crisis / Disaster

Location
Condition
Propagation

Prevention
Measures
Mitigation
Measures

Facility Level Plan

Corporate Level
Plan

Emergency
Response Plan

Region Level Plan

Emergency
Response Team

Facility Level Team

Emergency
Response
Equipment

Corporate Level
Team
Region Level Team
Emergency
Response Report

Root
Cause
Analysis
Like icebergs, most of the problems
are usually below the surface!

Triggers of RCA
Audit Outcomes
Operation
Incident

HAZOP Study

Maintenance /
Repair

RCA

Near Miss
Reliability
Analysis

Large Accident

Equipment
Incident

51

RCA Corrective Actions

Control Setting

Maintenance /
Repair

Management
Change

RCA

Human Training
Recovery
Operation

Process Design

Equipment
Design
Equipment
Setting

52

Why Lack of Control?

Corporate

Plant Control
Variables

Site

Production
Control Variables

Plant

Controllers

Work Control
Variables

Process

Process Control
Variables

Equipment

Equipment
Control Variables

53

Quality Controls of RCA

54

Process
Lifecycle

Oil Refinery Production Chain

Oil Refinery
Operation

Supplier-1

On-Site Process
(Refinery)

Customer-1
Off-Site Process

Supplier -2

Customer-2
Internal Operation

External Operation

POOM Modeling
Methodology

Process Design
Define
Operation

Design
Structure
Behavior

Coordinator

Operation

Evaluate

Simulate

POOM: Process Object-Oriented Modeling

Methodology

Three-Tier Enterprise Engineering

Management

Life-cycle Engineering
Product

Supply Chain
- Commerce
- Material

POOM
Behavior
Material

Demand Chain

Process

- Customer
- Social

Function
Operation

Production Chain
- Manufacturing
- Product

Plant
LCA

Manufacturing Strategy

Enterprise
VE

Structure

Control

Management

Operational Design Mechanism

ISU

SS

SU

RSU

SD
PSU

Define Operation Category

FB

Define POOM Model

NSD

ESD

PSD

(Static, Dynamic, Operation)

Define Operation Scenarios

Plan / Schedule
Assess

Decide Operating Procedures

Safety

(Tasks & Parameters)

Maintenance
Human
Environment
Materials

Quality
Cost

Optimize Resources
Simulate

(Calculate New State)

Evaluate

Next Operation
Category
Design
Rationales
Another Oper.
Scenario
Next
Operation

Engineering Lifecycles
Plant

Virtual Enterprise

Enterprise

Process

Product

Integrated Information Model

Data Repository

POOM Example Micro Level

Structure

Behavior

Operation

Topology

State

Method

Structure Unit

Transition

Purpose

Flow2

Flow6

Flow8

Flow11

Flow1
Heat1
MP2

MP2
MP1

FLD12
MP1

MP1

TK15

MP2

MP2
MP1

CV13

MP2

CV16

MP1

Flow7
MP3

HEX4

Inventory2

MP1

MP4

Flow9

CV14
DST3

Flow3
Flow4

Flow5
Inventory1

Flash

Flow10

MP2

POOM

PS1
Material- 1
Material- 2

M1
P1 P3 - SI P5
M2
P2 P4 - SI P6

CV1 MNF- 1
CV3
P7

CV2

P1P8
SO

P9
Product- 1

Material Port
Manufacturing PS
Stock- In PS
Stock- Out PS
MNF- 1
BV1

CV1
TK1

SP1

BV2

CV2
TK2

CV3

BV3
TK3

Hierarchical Modeling

CAPE-ModE

Define Plant Topology Unit

Structure Class
Structure Equipment

Material
Function

Cell
Unit

Topology
Product
Failure

Graph

OIA

EIA

OIA Boundaries
TNK4

V4
T-IN9

TNK5

V5

mp1 mp2
PUMP3

CV3

OIA & Control Mechanism

OIA0
Inventory
Constraint

Process
Constraint

Inventory
Constraint

Process
Constraint

Inventory
Constraint

Process
Constraint

CV1
CV2

CV0

OIA1

OIA2

OIA3

Material
Material
Energy
- Navigate the topology
(Upstream / Downstream)
- Resolve the Conflict
- Operation Instructions

Conflict

CV3

Material

Energy

Control Layer

Inventory
Constraint

Upstream
Instructions

Process
Constraint

Up/Downstream
Instructions

OIA

BIA Boundaries

Topology Path Visualization

Integration Topology Analysis