ENGR2140U Problem Solving,

Modeling and Simulation

Lecture-14

So far.

Introduction about the course

Project definition
What is the definition of problem
Real world problems
Effective problem thinkers
Good 6 habits
Tools: Microsoft Project, IDEF0, Flow
Diagram, Formal Languages

So far.

Risk assessment
Paradigm shift
Accident Investigation as problem solving
Exxon Valdez
Common contributors to accidents
Problem solving process, 5 steps
Heuristic Approach
Process Chart

So far.

How to define a problem

Data collection
Triggers
Brainstorming
Fishbone
Solution generation
K-T Analysis, PA, DA,PPA

So far.

Petri Nets
Decision Trees, Binary Decision Trees
FTA
ETA
Solution implementation
Approval
Planning

So far.

Implementation
Planning
MS Project , Critical Path
Approval
Resources
MOC
Onion Model
Follow Up

So far.

Error analysis
Experimental data analysis
Error types
Controllable / uncontrollable factors
Varying factors

7 Steps for Designing an

Experiment
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

recognition/statement of problem
choosing response variable
choosing factors, levels, ranges
choose experimental design
do experiment
statistical analysis of data
conclusions/recommendations

Want to Consider this further

x1 x2 x3 xn

INPUTS

controllable factors

PROCESS to be
Understood

OUTPUT, y

uncontrollable factors
z 1 z2 z3 z m

Schematically
x1 x2 x3 xn

controllable factors

which are important?

INPUTS

PROCESS to be
Understood

OUTPUT, y

uncontrollable factors
z1 z2 z3 zm how to minimize these?

A Method to Solve
try a set of variables measure y
use intuition to change a variable to see
change in measured response

This is the Best-Guess Approach

used a lot!
Question: How does one know if optimum
solution achieved?

Varying One Factor

traditional method;
change one factor at a time
draw conclusions based on measured
response

C (g)

Varying One Factor

Catalyst

Temperature

Agitation

Varying One Factor

Major disadvantage to this approach
NO INTERACTION EFFECTS

Golf Example
Factors identified
type of driver (regular or oversized)
type of ball
walking or riding
drinking water or beer
play AM or PM
play cool or hot
golf shoe spikes (metal or soft)
windy or calm

Beverage

Three Factor Experiment

Ball
Driver

Improved Approach
Factorial Design

Some Terms

Run
Variable/Factor
Randomization
Replication
Blocking

Some Statistical Terms

Mean (central tendency)
Variance (dispersion of a probability
distribution around mean)
Sample Mean
Sample Variance

Sample Mean

Sample Variance

n-1

Regression Model
Linear Model
y = 0 + 1 x +

( is the random error)

Quadratic Model
y = 0 + 1 x + 2 x 2 +

Quartic Model etc.

Want lowest order polynomial
(or the most appropriate)

Factorial Design

Terms

main effects (x1, x2, x3, )

interaction effects (x1x2, x1x3, x2x3, )
coded scale (-1 to +1):
(-1) means reduces
(0) means no effect
(+1) means increases

Terms
regression model representation for a twofactor factorial design
y = 0 + 1x1 + 2x2 + 12x1x2 +

response surface

Advantage of Factorial Design

y = 0 + 1x1 + 2x2 + 12x1x2 +

Relative Efficiency

Battery Design Example

Sum of Squares
The sum of squares is used to measure
the variation or deviation from the mean.
It is calculated as a summation of the
squares of the differences from the mean.
The calculation of the total sum of squares
considers both the sum of squares from
the factors and from randomness or error
[Minitab].

Sum of Squares
SST = SSA + SSB + SSAB + SSError

where a and b represent the number of levels A and B

are measured at, and n represents the number of replicates

Total Corrected Sum of Squares

SST
SSA
SSB
SSAB
SSE

Expected Value of Mean Squares

ANOVA for Two-Factor Factorial,

Fixed Effects Model

Battery Design Example

Battery The Analysis

SST

SSA = SSMaterial

SSB = SSTemperature

SSAB = SSInteraction

SSE

ANOVA, p-value
The P value tests the null hypothesis
Data from all groups are drawn from
populations with identical means.
It should answer the question:
If all the populations have the same mean
(the treatments are ineffective), what is the
chance that random sampling would result
in means as far apart (or more so) as
observed in this experiment?

ANOVA, p-value
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F-test#Oneway_ANOVA_example

ANOVA
Source

Sum of Squares

DoF

Mean Square

F0

Factor

SSF=J(yi.y..)2

I-1

MSF = SSF / (I - 1)

MSF/MSE

Residual

SSE=(yijyi.)2

I(J-1)

MSE = SSE / (I(J - 1))

Corr. Total

SST=(yijy..)2

IJ-1

he mean square fluctuation (MSF) is a measure of the deviation between the position of particle i and some reference position.

Resulting ANOVA Table

F0.05,4,27 = 2.73
F0.05,2,27 = 3.35

Plot of the Results

Table of Residuals

Normal Probability Plot of Residuals

Plot of Residuals versus ijk

Plot of Residuals vs Material Type

Plot of Residuals vs Temperature

The Model (Finally)

Typical 22 Design

Results

Typical 23 Design

Run
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

A
+
+
+
+

B
+
+
+
+

C
+
+
+
+

Labels
(1)
a
b
ab
c
ac
bc
abc

A
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1

B
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1

C
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1

Geometric View

An Example of a 23 Design
A 23 factorial design was used to develop
a nitride etch process on a single-wafer
plasma etching tool.
Design factors are:
gap between electrodes
gas flow (gas is C2F6)
RF power applied to the cathode

Response variable is the etch rate for

silicon nitride (/m)

An Example of a 23 Design

Factor Levels

Levels
Low
A (Gap, cm)
0.8
1.2
B (C2F6 flow, SCCM) 125
C (Power, W)
275

High
200
325

Visually

Estimating the Factor Effects

Estimating the Factor Effects

Estimating the Factor Effects

Estimating the Factor Effects

Largest Effects are:

C=306.125; A=-101.625; and
AC=-153.625

Calculated Sum of Squares

SST=531420.9375
SSE=18020.50

Effect Estimate Summary

ANOVA Table

Regression Model
^

= 0 + 1x1 + 3x3 + 13x1x3

= 776.0625
+ (-101.625/2)x1
+ (306.125/2)x3
+ (-153.625/2)x1x3

The Response Surface