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Chapter 6
Continuous Distributions
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The primary objective of Chapter 6 is to help you understand continuous distributions,
thereby enabling you to:
1.
2.
3.
Recognize normal distribution problems and know how to solve such problems.
4.
5.
Decide when to use the exponential distribution to solve problems in business and
know how to work such problems.
CHAPTER TEACHING STRATEGY
answer is still only an approximation. For this reason and also in an effort to link
chapters 5 & 6, the student is sometimes asked to work binomial problems both by
methods in this chapter and also by using binomial tables (A.2). This also will allow the
student to observe how good the approximation of the normal curve is to binomial
problems.
The exponential distribution can be taught as a continuous distribution which can
be used in complement with the Poisson distribution of chapter 5 to solve interarrival
time problems. The student can see that while the Poisson distribution is discrete because
it describes the probabilities of whole number possibilities per some interval, the
exponential distribution describes the probabilities associated with times which are
continuously distributed.
CHAPTER OUTLINE
6.1
6.2
Normal Distribution
History of the Normal Distribution
Probability Density Function of the Normal Distribution
Standardized Normal Distribution
Working Normal Curve Problems
Using the Computer to Solve for Normal Distribution Probabilities
6.3
6.4
Exponential Distribution
Probabilities of the Exponential Distribution
Using the Computer to Determine Exponential Distribution Probabilities
KEY TERMS
Correction for Continuity
Exponential Distribution
Normal Distribution
Rectangular Distribution
6.1 a = 200
a) f(x) =
b) =
=
b = 240
1
1
1
b a 240 200 40
a b 200 240
2
2
= 220
b a 240 200
40
12
12
12
c) P(x> 230) =
240 230 10
240 200 40
b) =
=
= 11.547
= .250
220 205 15
240 200 40
225 200 25
240 200 40
= .375
= .625
b = 21
1
1
1
b a 21 8 13
a b 8 21 29
2
2
2
= 14.5
b a 21 8
13
12
12
12
= 3.7528
17 10
7
21 8
13
= .5385
b = 3.14
a b 2.80 3.14
2
2
= 2.97
ba
3.14 2.80
12
12
= 0.10
3.10 3.00
3.14 2.80
b = 12.03
1
1
b a 12.03 11 .97
12.03 12.01
12.03 11 .97
6.5 = 2100
=
a = 400
b a 3800 400
12
12
Height =
= 0.2941
= .3333
12.01 11 .98
12.03 11.97
= .5000
b = 3800
= 981.5
1
3800 400
ba
12
= 16.667
= .000294
3800 3000
800
3800 400
3400
= .2353
1500 700
800
= .2353
.4750
.2673
.4977
.4279
.4962
.3599
56.8
= 0.55
.2088
= 48, = 12):
x 20 48
12
= -2.33
.4901
x 150 111
33.8
= 1.15
.3749
z =
x 100 111
33.8
= -0.33
.1293
x 250 264
10.9
= -1.28
x 255 264
10.9
.3997
= =0.83
.2967
x 35 37
4.35
= -0.46
.1772
x 170 156
11.4
= 1.23
.3907
=4
x 17 22
= -1.25
x 13 22
= -2.25
x 31 22
= 2.25
x 25 22
= 0.75
= 11.35
x 67.5 42.78
11.35
= 2.20
x 30 42.78
11.35
= -1.13
z =
x 50 42.78
11.35
= 0.64
x 25 42.78
11.35
= -1.57
10
x 55 42.78
11.35
= 1.08
z =
x 45 42.78
11.35
= 0.20
= $1332
= $575
x 2000 1332
725
= 0.92
.3212
x 0 1332
725
= -1.84
11
x 100 1332
725
= -1.70
x 700 1332
725
.4554
= -0.87
.3078
.1476
= $9,000
45,000 30,000
9,000
= 1.67
15,000 30,000
9,000
.4525
= -1.67
.4525
z =
50,000 30,000
9,000
12
= 2.22
5,000 30,000
9,000
= -2.78
20,000 30,000
9,000
.4973
= -1.11
.3665
13
-1.33 =
7,000 30,000
= 17,293.23
e) = $9,000. If 79.95% of the costs are less than $33,000,
x = $33,000 is in
the upper half of the distribution and .7995 - .5000 = .
2995 of the values lie
between $33,000 and the mean.
From Table A.5, an area of .2995 is associated with
z = 0.84
Solving for :
z =
0.84 =
33,000
9,000
14
= $25,440
= 47
6.12 = 200,
Determine x
-0.25 =
x 200
47
x = 188.25
z =
15
X 200
47
0.95 =
x = 244.65
c) 22% of the values are less than x.
Since 22% of the values lie below x, 28% lie between x
and the mean
(.5000 - .2200). Table A.5 yields a z of -0.77 for an area of
.2800. Using the z
value of -0.77, = 200, and = 47, x can be solved for:
z =
-0.77 =
x 200
47
x = 163.81
d) x is greater than 55% of the values.
Since x is greater than 55% of the values, 5% (.0500) lie
between x and the
mean. From Table A.5, a z value of 0.13 is associated with
an area of .05.
Using z = 0.13, = 200, and = 47, x can be solved for:
z =
0.13 =
16
x 200
47
x = 206.11
6.13 a) = 12.56. If 71.97% of the values are greater than 56,
then 21.97% of .2197
lie between 56 and the mean, . The z value associated
with .2197 is -0.58
since the 56 is below the mean.
Using z = -0.58, x = 56, and = 12.56, can be solved
for:
z =
-0.58 =
56
12.56
= 63.285
b) = 352. Since only 13.35% of the values are less than x =
300, the x = 300 is
at the lower end of the distribution. 36.65% (.5000 - .
1335) lie between
x = 300 and = 352. From Table A.5, a z value of -1.11
is associated with
.3665 area at the lower end of the distribution.
Using x = 300, = 352, and z = -1.11, can be solved
for:
z =
17
300 352
-1.11 =
= 46.85
= ??
6.14 = 22
18.5 22
-0.59 = -3.5
=
3.5
0.59
= 5.932
-0.55 =
20
4
= 22.20
6.16
= 9.7 Since 22.45% are greater than 11.6, x = 11.6 is
in the upper half of the distribution and .2755 (.5000 - .2245)
18
lie between x and the mean. Table A.5 yields a z = 0.76 for an
area of .2755.
Solving for :
z =
0.76 =
11.6 9.7
= 2.5
6.17
n pq
30(.70)(.30)
= 2.51
n pq
25(.50)(.50)
19
= np = 40(.60) = 24
=
n pq
40(.60)(.40)
= 3.10
n pq
16(.45)(.55)
a) n = 8 and p = .50
= np = 8(.50) = 4
=
n pq
8(.50)(.50)
= 1.414
3 = 4 3(1.414) = 4 4.242
(-0.242 to 8.242) does not lie between 0 and 8.
Do not use the normal distribution to approimate this
problem.
b) n = 18 and p = .80
= np = 18(.80) = 14.4
=
n pq
18(.80)(.20)
= 1.697
20
n pq
12(.30)(.70)
= 1.587
n pq
14(.50)(.50)
= 1.87
21
3 = 7 3(1.87) = 7 5.61
(1.39 to 12.61) does lie between 0 and 14.
The problem can be approimated by the normal curve.
6.19
n pq
25(.40)(.60)
3 = 10 3(2.449) = 10 7.347
(2.653 to 17.347) lies between 0 and 25.
Approimation by the normal curve is sufficient.
Prob(7.5 < x < 8.5 = 10 and = 2.449):
z =
7.5 10
2.449
= -1.02
z =
8.5 10
2.449
= -0.61
22
= np = 20(.60) = 12
=
n pq
20(.60)(.40)
= 2.19
3 = 12 3(2.19) = 12 6.57
(5.43 to 18.57) lies between 0 and 20.
Approimation by the normal curve is sufficient.
Prob(x < 12.5 = 12 and = 2.19):
z =
x 12.5 12
2.19
= 0.23
n pq
15(.50)(.50)
= 1.9365
z =
x 6.5 7.5
1.9365
23
= -0.52
n pq
10(.70)(.30)
3 = 7 3(1.449) = 7 4.347
(2.653 to 11.347) does not lie between 0 and 10.
The normal curve is not a good approimation to this
problem.
6.20
n = 120
p = .37
n pq
120(.37 )(.63)
= 5.29
24
39.5 44.4
5.29
= -0.93
n = 70, p = .59
n pq
70(.59)(.41)
= 4.115
34.5 41.3
4.115
= -1.65
n = 300
p = .53
25
= 300(.53) = 159
=
n pq
300(.53)(.47)
= 8.645
175.5 159
8.645
= 1.91
170.5 159
8.645
= 1.33
z =
164.5 159
8.645
= 0.64
n = 300
p = .60
26
= 300(.60) = 180
=
n pq
300(.60)(.40)
= 8.485
170.5 180
8.485
z =
154.5 180
8.485
= -1.12
= -3.01
199.5 180
8.485
= 2.30
27
p = .16 n = 130
n pq
130(.16)(.84)
= 4.18
25.5 20.8
4.18
= 1.12
14.5 20.8
4.18
z =
23.5 20.8
4.18
= -1.51
= 0.65
11.5 20.8
4.18
28
x = 11.5
= -2.22
21.5 20.8
4.18
= 0.17
z =
22.5 20.8
4.18
= 0.41
n = 95
n pq
95(.52)(.48)
= 4.87
test passed
z =
43.5 49.4
4.87
29
= -1.21
52.5 49.4
4.87
= 0.64
56.5 49.4
4.87
= 1.46
n pq
95(.70)(.30)
test passed
30
59.5 66.5
4.47
= -1.57
54.5 66.5
4.47
= -2.68
62.5 66.5
4.47
= -0.89
a) = 0.1
y
.1000
.0905
.0819
.0741
.0670
.0607
6
7
8
9
10
.0549
.0497
.0449
.0407
.0368
b) = 0.3
x0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
y
.3000
.2222
.1646
.1220
.0904
.0669
.0496
.0367
.0272
.0202
31
c) = 0.8
x0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
y
.8000
.3595
.1615
.0726
.0326
.0147
.0066
.0030
.0013
.0006
32
d) = 3.0
x0
0
1
2
3
4
5
y
3.0000
.1494
.0074
.0004
.0000
.0000
33
6.26
34
a) = 3.25
=
1
1
3.25
= 0.31
1
1
3.25
= 0.31
b) = 0.7
=
1
1
.007
= 1.43
1
1
.007
= 1.43
c) = 1.1
=
1
1
1.1
= 0.91
= 0.91
1
1.1
d) = 6.0
=
1 1
= 0.17
1 1
= 0.17
35
1 - .0082
= .9918
6.28
= 23 sec.
36
b) = .0435/sec
Prob(x > 5 min = .0435/sec.)
Change to minutes:
6.29 = 2.44/min.
a) Prob(x > 10 min = 2.44/min) =
Let x0 = 10,
d) Epected time = =
1
1
2.44
37
1
1
1.12
Let x0 = 10,
8297 = .1703
1
1
3.39
= 0.295
(0.295)(1,000) = 295
Prob(x > 500):
Let x0 = 500/1,000 passengers = .5
e-x = e-3.39(.5) = e-1.695 = .1836
Prob(x < 200):
38
1
20
= .05/year
Prob(x>x0)=e-x
.9512
.9048
.8607
x0
1
2
3
6.33
2
30
= .067/day
1 1
month
2
39
let x0 = 2,
6.34 a = 6
f(x) =
b = 14
1
1
1
b a 14 6 8
a b 6 14
2
2
b a 14 6
12
12
= .125
= 10
8
12
= 2.309
14 11 3
14 6
8
= .375
12 7 5
14 6 8
= .625
6.35
z =
x 21 25
= -1.00
40
x 71 50
= 3.00
x 47 50
= -0.50
x 13 23
= -2.50
x 29 23
= 1.50
.9270
z =
x 105 90
2.86
41
= 5.24
6.36
.0000
n pq
25(.60)(.40)
= 2.45
3 = 15 3(2.45) = 15 7.35
(7.65 to 22.35) lies between 0 and 25.
The normal curve approimation is sufficient.
P(11.5 < x < 12.5 = 15 and = 2.45):
z=
x 11 .5 15
2.45
= -1.43
x 12.5 15
2.45
= -1.02
42
n pq
15(.50)(.50)
= 1.94
5.5 7.5
1.94
= -1.03
n pq
10(.50)(.50)
= 1.58
3 = 5 3(1.58) = 5 4.74
(0.26 to 9.74) lies between 0 and 10.
The normal curve approimation is sufficient.
Prob(x < 3.5 = 5 and = l.58):
z =
3.5 5
1.58
43
= -0.95
n pq
15(.40)(.60)
= 1.90
3 = 6 3(1.90) = 6 5.7
(0.3 to 11.7) lies between 0 and 15.
The normal curve approimation is sufficient.
Prob(x > 7.5 = 6 and = l.9):
z =
7.5 6
1.9
= 0.79
= 1.3):
Prob(x > 3
b) Prob(x < 2
44
Let 0 = 2
Prob(x < 2
= 2.0) =
.9817
= 1.65):
45
x = 48
z =
1.175 =
48 43.4
4.6
6.39
= 1.175 = 3.915
p = 1/5 = .20
n = 150
Prob(x > 50):
= 150(.20) = 30
=
z =
150(.20)(.80)
50.5 30
4.899
= 4.899
= 4.18
46
= 8.53
80 90.28
8.53
= -1.21
47
95 90.28
8.53
= 0.55
83 90.28
8.53
= -0.85
z =
87 90.28
8.53
= -0.38
= 83
48
2655
83
1.88 =
= 2498.96 million
6.43 a = 18
b = 65
a b 65 18
2
2
f(x) =
50 25 25
65 18 47
= .5319
= 41.5
1
1
1
b a 65 18 47
= .0213
1
1
1.8
49
x0 = 1 min. = 60/15 = 4
Prob(x0 > 1 min.) = e-4(1.8) = .0007
6.45 = 951
= 96
x 1000 951
96
= 0.51
x 900 951
96
= -0.53
z =
x 1100 951
96
= 1.55
x 825 951
96
= -1.31
z =
x 925 951
96
= -0.27
50
x 700 951
96
= -2.61
p = .24
= np = 60(.24) = 14.4
=
n pq
60(.24)(.76)
= 3.308
x 16.5 14.4
3.308
= 0.63
51
x
22.5 14.4
3.308
= 2.45
x 12.5 14.4
3.308
z =
x
7.5 14.4
3.308
= -0.57
= -2.09
= 4,246
50,000 45,121
4,246
= 1.15
52
40,000 45,121
4,246
= -1.21
35,000 45,121
4,246
= -2.38
39,000 45,121
4,246
= -1.44
47,000 45,121
4,246
= 0.44
53
6.48 = 9 minutes
= 1/ = .1111/minute = .1111(60)/hour
= 6.67/hour
Prob(x > 5 minutes = .1111/minute) =
1 - Prob(x > 5 minutes =.1111/minute):
Let x0 = 5
Prob(x > 5 minutes = .1111/minute) =
e-x = e-.1111(5) = e-.5555 = .5738
Prob(x < 5 minutes) = 1 - Prob(x > 5 minutes) = 1 - .5738 =
.4262
6.49 = 88
= 6.4
x 70 88
6.4
= -2.81
z =
x 80 88
6 .4
54
= -1.25
x 100 88
6 .4
= 1.88
x 90 88
6.4
= 0.31
n pq
200(.81)(.19)
= 5.548
55
150.5 162
5.548
= -2.07
154.5 162
5.548
= -1.35
158.5 162
5.548
= -0.63
143.5 162
5.548
= -3.33
56
p = .75
= np = 150(.75) = 112.5
=
n pq
150(.75)(.25)
= 5.3033
x 104.5 112 .5
5.3033
= -1.51
109.5 112 .5
5.3033
= -0.57
z =
120.5 112 .5
5.3033
= 1.51
57
95.5 112 .5
5.3033
= -3.21
ab
2
= 2.165
1
ba
= 0.862
a + b = 2(2.165) = 4.33
1 = 0.862b - 0.862a
b = 4.33 - a
1 = 0.862(4.33 - a) - 0.862a
1 = 3.73246 - 0.862a - 0.862a
1 = 3.73246 - 1.724a
1.724a = 2.73246
a = 1.585
b = 4.33 - 1.585 = 2.745
6.53 = 85,200
60% are between 75,600 and 94,800
58
94,800 85,200
= 11,428.57
6.54 n = 75
p = .81 prices
p = .44 products
1 = np = 75(.81) = 60.75
1 =
n pq
75(.81)(.19)
= 3.397
2 = np = 75(.44) = 33
2 =
n pq
75(.44)(.56)
= 4.299
59
+ 3 = 33 + 3(4.299) = 33 + 12.897
20.103 to 45.897 lies between 0 and 75. It is okay to use the
normal distribution
to approimate this problem.
a) The epected value = = 75(.81) = 60.75
b) The epected value = = 75(.44) = 33
c) Prob(x > 67 prices)
correcting for continuity: x = 66.5
z =
66.5 60.75
3.397
= 1.69
22.5 33
4.299
= -2.44
60
p = .80
= np = 50(.80) = 40
=
n pq
50(.80)(.20)
= 2.828
1.67 months
61
34.5 40
2.828
= -1.94
41.5 40
2.828
47.5 40
2.828
x = 47.5
= 0.53
= 2.65
62
= 175
x 2087
175
-.84 =
x = 1940
If 65% are more, then 15% lie between x and
z.15 = -0.39
z =
-.39 =
x 2087
175
x = 2018.75
If x is more than 85%, then 35% lie between x and .
z.35 = 1.03
z =
1.03 =
x 2087
175
63
x = 2267.25
6.58 = 0.8 person minute
Prob(x > 1 minute = 0.8 minute):
Let x0 = 1
Prob(x > 1) = e-x = e-.8(1) = e-.8 = .4493
Prob(x > 2.5 Minutes = 0.8 per minute):
Let x0 = 2.5
Prob(x > 2.5) = e-x = e-0.8(2.5) = e-2 = .1353
6.59 = 1,762,751
64
= 50,940
1,850,000 1,762,751
50,940
= 1.71
1,620,000 1,762,751
50,940
= -2.80
65
66
67