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HydraulicDesignManual:ProbabilityofExceedance

Section2:ProbabilityofExceedance
Theprobabilityofexceedancedescribesthelikelihoodofaspecifiedflowrate(orvolumeofwaterwith
specifiedduration)beingexceededinagivenyear.Theprobabilityofcapacityexceedancedescribesthe
likelihoodofthedesignflowrate(orvolumeofwaterwithspecifiedduration)ofahydraulicstructurebeing
exceededinagivenyear.

AnnualExceedanceProbability(AEP)
Inthismanualthepreferredterminologyfordescribingtheprobabilityofexceedanceisannualexceedance
probability(AEP).
ThereareseveralwaystoexpressAEP.TheTxDOTpreferredunitforexpressingAEPispercent.Anevent
havinga1in100chanceofoccurringinanysingleyearwillbedescribedinthismanualasthe1%AEPevent.
Annualrecurrenceinterval(ARI),orreturnperiod,isalsousedbydesignerstoexpressprobabilityof
exceedance.A5yearreturnintervalistheaveragenumberofyearsbetweenyearscontainingoneormore
eventsexceedingthespecifiedAEP.Lastly,AEPcanalsobeexpressedasprobability(anumberbetween0and
1),suchasp=0.01.ExamplesofequivalentexpressionsforexceedanceprobabilityforarangeofAEPsare
providedinTable41.
Table41:ThreeWaystoDescribeProbabilityofExceedance
AEP(aspercent)

AEP(asprobability)

Annualrecurrenceinterval(ARI)

50%

0.50

2year

20%

0.20

5year

10%

0.10

10year

4%

0.04

25year

2%

0.02

50year

1%

0.01

100year

WhileAEP,expressedasapercent,isthepreferredmethodforexpressingprobabilityofexceedance,thereare
instancesinthismanualwhereotherterms,suchasthoseinTable41,areused.Theseinstancesinclude
equationsubscriptsbasedonreturnperiod,plotaxesgeneratedbystatisticalsoftware,andtextandtables
wherereadabilitywasimprovedasaresult.

DesignAEP
Thedesignerwilldeterminetherequiredlevelofprotectiontobeprovidedbyahydraulicstructure.Thelevel
ofprotectionisexpressedasthedesignAEP.Thedesignerwillapplyprinciplesofhydrologytodetermine
flowsandvolumescorrespondingtothedesignAEP.Thepurposeofmoststructureswillbetoprovide
protectionagainst,orprevent,highstagesresultingfromthedesignAEPevent.
Ifstageisprimarilydependentonflowrate,asisthecaseinafreeflowingchannel,thenthedesignerwill
estimatethepeakflowvaluecorrespondingtothedesignAEP.Ifstageisprimarilydependentonaccumulated
volume,asisthecasewithastoragefacility,thenthedesignerwillseektoestimatetheflowvolumeand
durationcorrespondingtothedesignAEP.
FlowswithcomputedAEPvaluescanbeplottedasafloodfrequencycurveasillustratedinFigure41.Inthis 1/2
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HydraulicDesignManual:ProbabilityofExceedance

FlowswithcomputedAEPvaluescanbeplottedasafloodfrequencycurveasillustratedinFigure41.Inthis
example,thedischargeisplottedonalogarithmicscaleandAEPisplottedonprobabilityscale.Aswouldbe
expectedthecurveindicatesthatflowincreasesasAEPdecreases.
TheAEPscalerangesfrom100%to0%(showninFigure41as1to0).TheAEPaxisissymmetricalabout
the0.5AEPposition.Forexample,thehorizontaldistancebetweenAEPof0.5and0.95equalsthedistance
between0.5and0.05.

Figure41.Typicalfloodfrequencycurve
Accuracy
Thepeakdischargesdeterminedbyanalyticalmethodsareapproximations.Thedrainagesystemwillrarely
operateatthedesigndischarge.Flowwillalwaysbemoreorlessinactualpractice,merelypassingthroughthe
designflowasitrisesandfalls.Thus,thedesignengineershouldnotoveremphasizetheaccuracyofthe
computeddischarges.Thedesignengineershouldemphasizethedesignofapracticalandhydraulically
balancedsystembasedonsoundlogicandengineering.

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