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Roadblocks to Prosperity
Table of Contents
Foreword 2
Executive Summary 4
I. Company Demographics 6
II. Overall Economic and Financial Performance 9
III. Regulatory Concerns 14
IV. Business Strategy 18
V. Manufacturing Modernization 20
VI. Advanced Manufacturing Strategy 23
VII. Leading-Edge Manufacturing Technologies 27
VIII. Expanding Indianas Manufacturing Base 29
IX. Manufacturing Workforce Shortages and Skills 31
Appendix: Benchmarking Indianas Manufacturing 37
Foreword
The good news: More than 80% of respondents from this years Indiana Manufacturing Survey view
their recent financial performance as stable or better. The bad news: The expected growth rates for
revenues, profits and capital investment are all diminishing from the impressive rates reported in
previous years surveys dating back to 2011-12.
These diminishing returns reflect a recovery that has matured, although it has not necessarily run
its course. In the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession, Indiana manufacturers endeavored to
catch up by aggressively investing in new technologies and facilities, and by further embracing process
improvement philosophies such as Lean and Six Sigma. Together these initiatives boosted everything
from productivity to delivery and quality. But now, additional opportunities for continued productivity
improvements have become increasingly scarce, and growth in product demand has tapered off.
Despite the current low interest rate environment, the rate of growth in capital investment by Indiana
manufacturers has slowed from what we reported in previous post-recession surveys. And responses
in this current survey indicate that the slowdown in capital investment is largely due to markedly
lower expectations for future product market growth. A shortage of skilled production workers also
continues to impede the growth potential of Hoosier manufacturers. However, for the first time in
recent years, respondents now identify a material shortage of unskilled production workers due to
Indianas improving unemployment rate, which is now under 5% and below what economists would
describe as full employment. Furthermore, as in our past surveys, respondents continue to view
regulatory and reporting burdens as a major drag on growth, with healthcare regulation and high
corporate tax rates now leading the list of concerns.
In short, the challenge facing most Hoosier manufacturers is how to continue to grow and prosper in
the mature stages of a recovery, where expectations for product market growth have slowed, gains
from process improvement are harder to come by, and the labor shortage has now spread to unskilled
workers, all while the regulatory and reporting requirements are growing more burdensome than ever.
While some might dismiss these concerns as part of the normal course of the business cycle, we
believe that would be shortsighted. Of course, this is what always happens near the top of any peak,
when the climb gets steeper and the best path forward harder to see, but the impediments to growth
posed by workforce and regulatory concerns can be addressed independent of the business cycle.
The decisions made by managers in industry, leaders in government, and educators will play a large
role in determining whether Hoosier manufacturers can overcome the challenge posed by global
competition and move forward into what could (and should) be a very promising future, not only for
themselves but also for the rest of Indiana.
Jason E. Patch
Mark T. Frohlich
Steven L. Jones
Partner
Associate Professor
Professor
Executive Summary
While most Hoosier manufacturers remain confident about the future, for the second year in a row their
financial-performance gains have diminished. And while much of this can be attributed to a maturing of
the recovery, part is due to a growing shortage of production workers both skilled and unskilled as well
as an increasingly burdensome regulatory and reporting environment. Granted, it is never easy to remain
competitive in manufacturing, but it is even harder in a global economy when local, regional and national
concerns, from regulations to worker shortages, work against us. Below are some common sense steps
that industry, government, and education could take to help Hoosier manufacturers be more competitive.
I. Company Demographics
Consistent with our findings from previous years, the majority of participants in the 2016 Indiana
Manufacturing Survey are responding for a company at the headquarters level (86%), with the
rest responding for divisions (8%) or individual plants (5%) of larger organizations, and only a few
identifying some other organizational form (1%). Ninety-three percent of responding organizations
are privately owned, while the other 7% are publicly traded. In terms of local versus international
ownership, 89% of the responding manufacturers are companies headquartered in the United States.
The average number of direct or full-time employees per respondent is 424, with the largest
employing 8,650. Additionally, the organizations in this study employ, on average, three contract
workers and 21 temporary workers.
5% Plant
1% Other
8% Division
86% Company
OWNERSHIP TYPE
Public Ownership
7%
Private Ownership
0
93%
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES
Contract Workers
Temporary Workers
Mean
424
3 21
Standard Deviation
1,299
Maximum
8,650
67 850
106
Mirroring our earlier studies, this 2016 sample reflects a balanced blend of industries from a host of
Indianas most important manufacturing industries. The three largest industry groups represented
among the 2016 survey respondents are industrial equipment (19%), automotive (21%), and
aerospace and defense (9%). Another 22% of respondents are distributed between high-tech (6%),
healthcare (5%), furniture/home goods (5%) and food/beverage (6%). Companies in the other
category include the packaging, fasteners, bearings, energy, construction, and publishing industries,
in addition to others such as off-road and recreational vehicles (RVs).
INDUSTRY TYPES
21% Automotive
9% Aerospace and Defense
1% Clothing and Fashion
3% Chemicals and Petroleum
2% Communications
6% Food and Beverage
2% Sports and Leisure
5% Furniture and Home Goods
5% Healthcare
6% High-Tech and Technology
19% Industrial Equipment
21% Other
In each of our past four surveys, respondents were asked to rate their operations financial performance
over the last two years as either healthy, stable or challenged. The results for 2014-15 indicate
only a slight improvement over 2013-14, with a shift of about 8% from challenged (now down to
19%) to stable (up to 44%), along with a very small decline in the percent describing their financial
performance as healthy (now 37%). Interestingly, these latest results are nearly identical to those for
2011-12, supporting the view that the economic recovery remains tepid for manufacturers, and that
there has been an erosion of the optimism expressed in 2012-13 when 47% of respondents described
their financial performance as healthy.
Challenged
Stable
Healthy
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
Regarding key financial metrics, in prior years we surveyed participants about recent changes in
revenues, profit margins and capital expenditures (capex) that were in the books (i.e., historical).
In this 2016 survey, we have asked participants about their expectations for the current year (2016)
versus the previous year (2015). The means for expected growth in revenues, profit margins and
capex are lower than those realized in recent years, but the percentages expecting positive change
are actually higher now, suggesting that although the recovery is slowing, it has been broad-based.
Most notably, the mean expected increase in capex dropped to 7% from double digits in recent years,
but the percentage expecting an increase in capex jumped to 83%, from 72% or less in recent years.
EXPECTED FINANCIAL GROWTH (2013-2016)
10
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0
16%
15%
12%
10%
10%
9%
2013
2014
2015
7%
6%
2016
In addition, the percentage of manufacturers expecting positive increases in revenues (79%) and
profit margins (76%) rose to higher levels than reported in our past three surveys, going back to 2012.
FINANCIAL METRICS
% Change
Min % Value
Max % Value
Avg % Value
% Positive
-40
61
79
-83
60
76
-72
100
83
2016 Survey
2015 Survey
Revenue for 2014 over 2013
-83
100
78
-97
100
74
-79
100
15
72
2014 Survey
Revenue for 2013 over 2012
-40
100
10
72
-64
100
10
67
-100
100
12
64
2013 Survey
Revenue for 2012 over 2011
-35
100
16
61
-100
100
10
65
-100
100
16
63
11
Despite these heartening metrics, many of the written responses to the survey were not so
positive in regard to financial pressures. When asked, What was your best manufacturing
decision in the past year, various respondents suggested that revenues and profits continue
to be Hoosier manufacturing concerns:
12
In regard to working capital, the mean days of inventory for raw materials (48), work-in-process (36),
and finished goods (34) in 2015-16 are all slightly lower than last years (2014-15) levels. And these
levels for the two most recent periods, as well as those for 2012-13, are quite a bit higher than the 201314 levels when optimism was high, as we saw reflected in the earlier question about general financial
performance, and inventories had apparently been drawn down as a result of increased sales. The mean
cash conversion cycle (i.e., average days of inventory plus days receivable minus days payable) was 47
days in 2015-16, down only one day from 48 in 2014-2015, suggesting no material change in cash flow.
Work-In-Process
Inventory (Days)
Finished Goods
Inventory (Days)
Days Sales
Outstanding (DSO)
Days Payable
Outstanding (DPO)
2012-13
49 39 29 46 42
2013-14
42
25
23
40
35
2014-15
50
38
39
44
38
2015-16
48
36
34
46
38
In terms of product markets, estimates for recent (2014-15), current (2016-17), and future (2018-20)
growth in sales of 7%, 6% and 8%, respectively, reflect a collapse of expectations relative to what we
saw in last years survey, in which 26% of the respondents expected their markets to grow rapidly in
2015-16, and 28% anticipated rapid growth three to five years out in 2017-19. Again, these findings
support the view that past expectations of continuing momentum in terms of economic recovery
have been supplanted by much more modest expectations, suggesting the recovery has plateaued.
30%
30%
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
7%
6%
2014-2015
2016-2017
8%
26%
28%
23%
5%
0
2018-2020
2013-2014
2015-2016
2017-2019
13
14
When asked about what was most critical in terms of the cost and viability of manufacturing in Indiana,
corporate tax policy led the way, with 76% of respondents indicating that it is extremely important,
followed by business labor laws and regulations (73%) and property taxes (73%).
27%
73%
5%
52%
43%
0%
34%
66%
4%
Environmental Requirements
44%
52%
5%
Government Spending
57%
38%
9%
Indianas Finances
52%
39%
0%
29%
71%
5%
19%
76%
0%
27%
73%
3%
43%
54%
Somewhat Important
Extremely Important
15
Along the same lines, we asked respondents, What regulatory issue is having the biggest
negative impact on your business? Representative comments included:
16
Digging deeper into this topic, when asked about how important a subset of these regulatory concerns
are to their companies, changes to the healthcare laws were again considered most important (68%),
followed by changes to corporate tax rates (58%).
26%
58%
4%
Healthcare Laws
28%
68%
14%
Energy-Efficiency Standards
56%
30%
9%
43%
48%
16%
Greenhouse Emissions
39%
45%
Somewhat Important
Extremely Important
17
18
A critical strategic business decision every manufacturer makes is how to win customers orders based
upon the traditional competitive priorities of delivery, price, service, design and quality. The relative
importance of these business strategies have remained highly constant from 2013-16. Overall, superior
quality, fast and reliable delivery, and superior customer service rank most important. Similarly, lower
selling prices and superior product design have been relatively less-important capabilities.
2016 Survey
2015 Survey
2014 Survey
2013 Survey
4. 17
4. 17
4. 11
4. 39
3. 53
3. 49
3. 41
3. 56
4. 19
4. 00
4. 16
4. 27
3. 73
3. 57
3. 45
3. 71
Superior Quality
4. 33
4. 33
4. 39
4. 37
Once again, superior quality was rated extremely important by 51% of Hoosier manufacturers in
2016. Indeed, over the past four years superior quality has been extremely important with almost
half of all companies in our annual study.
Lower Selling
Prices
Superior Customer
Service
Superior Product
Design
Superior
Quality
2016
34%
23%
50%
31%
51%
2015
44%
21%
35%
26%
50%
2014
40%
15%
40%
15%
51%
2013
53%
22%
49%
34%
46%
19
V. Manufacturing
Modernization
20
For the last three years, human resource development (i.e., trained workforce) has stood out as the
greatest challenge to manufacturing firms attempting to modernize. The relative importance of this
concern peaked at 55% in 2014 but remained at the top of the list in 2015 at 44%, and now again in
2016 at 45%. This concern edged out investment in facilities, machinery and information technologies
as priorities for modernizing manufacturing.
12%
43%
45%
18%
55%
27%
13%
44%
43%
14%
45%
41%
21
As noted on the previous page, we asked Indiana manufacturers what they believed to
be their best manufacturing decisions in the past year. A variety of comments related to
modernizing manufacturing operations referenced technologies and human resource issues.
22
23
Similar to prior studies, this years survey included questions on a variety of advanced manufacturing
technologies and programs on a scale of 1-5, with 1 being No Use and 5 being Very High Use.
2016 SURVEY
Advanced Manufacturing Technologies
No
Limited
Some
High Very High
Use Use Use Use Use Mean
92%
3%
5%
0%
0%
91%
4%
1%
3%
1%
1. 21
96%
4%
0%
0%
0%
1. 04
CNC Machines
24%
14%
10%
23%
29%
3. 18
3. 68
1. 14
11%
11%
11%
33%
34%
60%
19%
12%
6%
3%
1. 71
44%
4%
16%
17%
19%
2. 63
84%
7%
5%
1%
3%
1. 33
86%
7%
4%
3%
0%
1. 23
53%
14%
15%
15%
3%
2. 00
56%
11%
14%
11%
8%
2. 04
52%
18%
15%
5%
10%
2. 03
55%
15%
21%
8%
1%
1. 86
68%
7%
12%
10%
3%
1. 71
77%
12%
8%
3%
0%
1. 37
19%
18%
33%
25%
5%
2. 79
Lean Manufacturing
8%
14%
29%
37%
12%
3. 32
Six Sigma
38%
21%
28%
10%
3%
2. 18
33%
12%
26%
21%
8%
2. 59
2015 SURVEY
Advanced Manufacturing Technologies
No
Limited
Some
High Very High
Use Use Use Use Use Mean
86%
5%
5%
2%
2%
1. 26
82%
9%
6%
0%
3%
1. 34
90%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1. 17
CNC Machines
39%
4%
8%
16%
33%
2. 96
20%
9%
13%
22%
36%
3. 46
67%
14%
11%
6%
2%
1. 64
51%
10%
16%
11%
12%
2. 23
86%
5%
5%
3%
2%
1. 29
86%
6%
5%
2%
1%
1. 25
55%
13%
17%
13%
2%
1. 93
64%
6%
10%
11%
9%
1. 93
64%
10%
18%
3%
5%
1. 77
57%
15%
11%
13%
4%
1. 91
72%
5%
9%
7%
7%
1. 73
78%
2%
10%
5%
5%
1. 57
24
28%
29%
28%
12%
3%
2. 35
Lean Manufacturing
13%
17%
29%
21%
20%
3. 18
Six Sigma
Work Cells / Cellular Manufacturing
39%
34%
20%
11%
20%
24%
9%
15%
12%
16%
2. 33
2. 65
In general, the use of almost all advanced manufacturing technologies has steadily increased in recent
years. Having said that, CNC machines, CAD systems, and related technologies such as coordinatemeasuring machines (CMM) have been most emphasized in terms of advanced manufacturing.
2013
2014
2015
2016
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
A
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In a similar way, more than 90% of all Indiana manufacturers rely on the philosophy known as Lean
manufacturing in 2016. Likewise, apprenticeship programs for training workers has rapidly expanded
in use from 2013 to 2016, with 81% of Hoosier manufacturers presently using it in their businesses.
2013
2014
2015
2016
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
81%
67%
79%
81%
87%
92%
73%
62%
53%
Apprenticeship
Programs for
Training Workers
Lean
Manufacturing
58%
60% 62%
Six Sigma
68%
60%
65%
67%
Work Cells /
Cellular
Manufacturing
25
On a different topic, more than 66% of all Hoosiers rated the price of electricity as extremely important
to the cost and viability of manufacturing. To lesser degrees, the costs of natural gas (30%) and diesel
or gasoline (21%) were also considered extremely important.
Electricity
Natural Gas
Diesel or Gasoline
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
66%
53%
29%
1%
50%
33%
30%
21%
17%
Not Important
Somewhat Important
Extremely Important
In terms of their strategies to offset high energy costs, 91% of respondents reported implementing
energy efficiency measures. Another 35% tried negotiations with utility providers, while 18% contracted
with an energy management provider.
Utilize Self-Generation
Opportunities
35%
9%
91%
18%
26
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
VII. Leading-Edge
Manufacturing
Technologies
27
For the 2016 study, we have begun tracking new information and process innovations in manufacturing
including additive manufacturing (3D printing), the Internet of Things, data analytics, and big data.
Data analytics is the most widely deployed followed by the Internet of Things. It is also worth noting
that additive manufacturing is beginning to be used more and more in fabricating component parts
and subassemblies as well as shop floor tools including fixtures and jigs.
28
Additive Manufacturing / 3D Printing
No
Some
High
Use Degree Degree
89%
11%
0%
95%
5%
0%
95%
4%
1%
93%
6%
1%
85%
11%
4%
Internet of Things
No
Some
High
Use Degree Degree
64%
26%
33%
56%
11%
32%
47%
21%
Data Analytics
No
Some
High
Use Degree Degree
47%
42%
11%
54%
39%
7%
35%
44%
21%
33%
39%
28%
32%
50%
18%
47%
39%
14%
Big Data
No
Some
High
Use Degree Degree
10%
77%
20%
3%
83%
13%
4%
75%
24%
1%
77%
21%
2%
80%
17%
3%
80%
18%
2%
29
When asked about plans in the next few years to open a new manufacturing facility in Indiana, only
3% responded yes, down considerably from 11% in the 2015 survey.
PLAN TO OPEN NEW MANUFACTURING FACILITY IN INDIANA IN 2016-17
97%
No
Yes
3%
0
No
Yes
89%
11%
0
In recent surveys, we have asked respondents if they expect to onshore any manufacturing back to
the United States, nearshore it to Canada or Mexico, or relocate or offshore any production outside
the country. In 2016, 11% intended to nearshore, 3% onshore, and 10% offshore some manufacturing.
89%
11%
97%
3%
90%
10%
7%
6%
93%
94%
Yes
30
No
87%
13%
0
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
31
We continue to analyze the ongoing shortage of manufacturing workers in Indiana, and in 2016, consistent
with recent years, the biggest shortages remain in skilled production workers and in production support.
Notably, for the first time in recent years, the 2016 results indicate a material shortage of unskilled
production workers, with 14% of manufacturers now indicating this shortage is serious.
No Shortage
Low Shortage
Moderate Shortage
Serious Shortage
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
65%
44%
39%
38%
24%
35%
21%
30%
19%
37%
27%
10%
10%
22%
21%
21%
16%
2%
0%
33%
27%
14%
11%
42%
38%
32%
14%
8%
n
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Ma
In a similar way, when asked about anticipated shortages of manufacturing workers in Indiana over
the next three to five years, the biggest shortages are anticipated in skilled production workers (44%),
followed by unskilled production workers (19%) and production support (17%).
No Shortage
Low Shortage
Moderate Shortage
Serious Shortage
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
59%
43%
40%
44%
40%
40%
33%
30%
33%
29%
25%
24%
14%
11%
0%
3%
25%
21%
27%
17%
17%
11%
38%
27%
8%
16%
6%
n
n
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rs
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32
19%
In terms of the impact of workforce shortages on Indianas manufacturers, it has been especially
damaging to achieving productivity targets, implementing new technologies and quality improvement
processes and maintaining production levels consistent with customer demand.
Regarding skills deficiencies across current employees and rejected applicants, two of the most
critical were inadequate basic employability skills (e.g., attendance, timeliness and work ethic) and
problem-solving skills. Curiously, technology skills are perceived as a bigger problem regarding
current employees than among rejected applicants.
SKILL DEFICIENCIES AMONG CURRENT EMPLOYEES AND REJECTED APPLICANTS
Skills Deficiencies:
Rejected Applicants
Current Employees
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
81%
68%
52%
52%
52%
63%
56%
44%
29%
49%
46%
25%
ls
ills
ills
ills
ills
ng
kil
ini
Sk
Sk
Sk
Sk
a
tS
y
r
n
h
g
t
n
g
o
n
lT
lvi
Ma
ati
me
olo
ica
nic
hn
-So
loy
ate
hn
u
c
p
c
u
m
e
q
T
Te
Em
mm
ble
de
te
ic
te
Co
ua
as
Pro
Ina
e
q
ua
B
e
t
e
t
q
f
a
a
d
de
qu
ko
qu
Ina
ac
de
Ina
de
a
L
a
n
I
In
33
Beginning with this 2016 survey, we track the degree to which the inability of employees to pass drug
tests poses a problem. Seventeen percent of responding companies regard this inability as a major
problem, while 62% view this as a limited problem and the remaining 21% report that it is not an issue.
Also in this 2016 study, we analyze in greater detail the education level Hoosier manufacturers require
of their new shop floor workers. The majority (73%) require a high school diploma, while 16% also
expect candidates to have a two-year technical degree.
EDUCATION REQUIRED
7% Some College
16% Two-Year Technical Degree
4% Four-Year College Degree
73% High School Diploma
34
For 2016, 50% of the respondents did not require any previous work experience for their skilled
production workers, while the other half did. For those requiring previous work experience, 37% were
looking for new hires with 24 months or more of experience, while 27% were looking for employees
with at least one year of manufacturing experience. At the other end of the spectrum, only 3% were
interested in new hires with less than six months of previous work experience.
3% 06 Months
33% 612 Months
27% 1224 Months
37% 24 Months+
We next asked respondents if they provided on-the-job training for their skilled production workers.
The majority (62%) responded yes and the rest (38%) no.
MANUFACTURERS PROVIDING ON-THE-JOB TRAINING
38% No
62% Yes
35
Finally, we inquired how Indiana manufacturers were overcoming existing skills gaps. The two most
common solutions are the internal employee training and development programs (90%) and the use
of overtime (78%).
48%
30%
90%
Outsourcing of Certain
Functions
52%
60%
Use of Overtime
78%
36
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Appendix:
Benchmarking Indianas
Manufacturing
37
The following data are averages for an array of performance metrics over the last four manufacturing
surveys.
WHAT WAS YOUR BUSINESS UNITS APPROXIMATE PERFORMANCE LEVEL FOR THE FOLLOWING?
73%
70%
68%
71%
Capacity Utilization
5%
3%
Customer Complaints
(As a Percentage of Orders Delivered)
9%
5%
59%
61%
64%
64%
2%
3%
5%
3%
7%
7%
10%
9%
4%
4%
2013
2014
2015
7%
6%
2016
19%
14%
16%
16%
14%
13%
12%
11%
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
4%
Capacity
Utilization
2013
38
15%
Delivery Speed
and Reliability
2014
2015
2016
Labor
Productivity
Material
Costs
6%
1%
5%
3%
2%
Overhead
Costs
2%
4%
2%
2%
Unit
Manufacturing
Cost
Business Climate
(Weighted 20%)
Manufacturers Performance
(Weighted 20%)
.500
.521
.516
.536
.497
.490
0.53 0.54
39
40