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Econometrics 1

Lecture 2

Topics for Today


Simple Linear Regression
Basic Idea
Ordinary Least Square Methods (OLS)

Estimation
Assumption
Properties of OLS
Interpretation
Goodness of Fit

Classical Normal Linear Regression Model


Testing Hypothesis

True vs. Estimated Model


True Model

Dependent Variable

Yi =0 +1Xi +i

Fitted Line
(the models prediction)

E(Y|Xi)= B0 +B1Xi

Leftover term

Stochastic error, e

Estimated Model

Y = b 0 + b1X + ei

Y = b 0 + b1X

Residual, e

Population Regression Function (PRF):


Conditional Expected Value E(Y|X)

What Is Unconditional Expected Value


E(Y)
Population Average of Y

Sample Regression Function (SRF)

0 + b
1X
Y = b

PRF vs SRF

OLS
OLS is the most basic and most commonlyused regression technique.
Given Yi =0 +1Xi +i
We wish to estimate Y = b 0 + b1X
OLS permits the estimation of B0 and B1 such
that the sum of squared residuals (RSS) are
minimized.

Residual
The residuals is ei=Yi- i
OLS minimizes the sum of squared residuals
(RSS), means:
OLS minimizes
ei2
i =1,2,...,n

OLS

OLS Coefficient Estimates

Goodness of Fit
The best fitting line may not be all that good,
so it is desirable to have some measure of fit
for how good the line is. We want to know
how well the regression line does in explaining
the movement of the dependent variable.
R2 provides us with a measure for how much
of the movement in the dependent variable
can be explained by the regression model.

Goodness of Fit : R2

Goodness of Fit
Once a regression equation is estimated, we
wish to determine the quality of the
estimation equation or the goodness of fit.
To do so, we use Total Sum of Squares (TSS),
Explained Sum of Squares (ESS), and Residual
Sum of Squares (RSS):

Goodness of Fit = R2

Goodness of Fit

Decomposition of Variance

R2

R2 and Adjusted R2

OLS Estimation Result

b 0 = -299.59
b1 = 0.722

Adjusted R2=
99.8%

Are We Finished?
Apakah SRF merepresentasikan PRF
Apakah Coefficients menggambarkan
Parameters?

OLS Assumptions
1. The regression model is: (a) linear in the coefficients, and
(b) correctly specified with the right independent
variables
2. No explanatory variable is a perfect linear function of any
other explanatory variable(s) (no perfect multicollinearity)
3. No explanatory variable is correlated with the error term
4. No serial correlation
5. Zero population mean of error term
6. Homoskedasticity of error term
7. Normally distributed error term

Linear Regression
Linear in Parameters
WAGEit

1 EDUCit

2 TENUREit

3 UNIONit

it

linear both in parameter and variables


Linear in Variables
Y AKa Lb
Could be estimated using logarithms as
ln Y ln A aln K b ln L
2

Linearity

Other Example:
Yi 0 1 Xi i
Transform: Xi* Xi
Thus: Yi 0 1Xi* i

Linear in Parameter but Not Linear In


Variables

No perfect multicollinearity.
They are really the same variable, or
That one (or more) has zero variance, or
Two independent variables sum to equal a
third, or
That a constant has been added to or
subtracted from one of the variables.

All explanatory variables are


uncorrelated with the error term.
If the observed values for the Xis are correlated with
the error term, then the estimated coefficients on the
Xis would be biased
If X and are positively correlated, then X will be
higher than if X and are not positively correlated;
If X and are negatively correlated, then X will be
lower than if X and are not negatively correlated.
Why? Because OLS will mistakenly attribute to X, the
variation in Y caused by .

Example: Education and Ability

No serial correlation

Homoscedasticity

Homoskedasticity

The error term is normally distributed


Assumption 7 states that the observations of
the error term are drawn from a distribution
that is normal (i.e. bell-shaped and symmetric).
This assumption of normality is not required
for OLS estimation. However, it is useful for
hypothesis testing Without the normality
assumption most of our hypothesis tests
would be invalid.

Classical Normal Linear Regression


Model
Assumption 7: The error term is normally
distributed.
Needed for Statistical Inference

Statistical Inference
Population: the entire group of items that
interests us.
Sample: the part of the population that we
actually observe.
Statistical inference: using the sample to draw
conclusions about the characteristics of the
population from which the sample came
We use samples because it is often not practical
or possible to consider the entire population
But each time we use a different sample, we will
obtain different estimates!

Sampling Distributions
A sample statistic, such as the sample mean or a
regression coefficient, is a random variable that
depends on which particular observations
happen to be selected for the random sample
Sampling error is the difference between the
value of one particular sample mean and the
average of the means of all possible samples of
this size; this error is not due to a poorly designed
experiment or sloppy procedure. It is the
inevitable result of the fact that the observations
in our sample are chosen by chance.

Properties of OLS Estimators: BLUE


OLS estimators are BLUE if the Gauss-Markov
Theorem is satisfied.
B OLS estimators are the BEST, as they have the
minimum possible variance;
L LINEAR
U UNBIASED
E ESTIMATOR.
Finally, we can say that estimators that are BLUE
are efficient estimators. Why? Because the
estimator provides an unbiased estimate with the
minimum possible variance about its distribution.

BLUE

Check Assumptions with Data: Stata