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  • The Map of Shelters and Refuges From Global Risks (Plan B of X-Risks Prevention)

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    Turchin Alexei
    124 просмотров1 страница
    Its time to take closer look on how we could survive a global catastrophe. There are many ideas, but most of them are shaky. This map is part of the map: “Plan of action to prevent human extinction risks”. http://effective-altruism.com/ea/ut/plan_of_action_to_prevent_human_extinction_risks/ ). This map zooms in Plan B of x-risks prevention. The main idea of the map: There are many ways how to create x-risks shelter, but they have only marginal utility for x-risks prevention, even if we include space colonization. Sweet spot of catastrophes for which refuges may be helpful is small (see their list in the Table 1.) For example, in the case of an asteroid impact less than 1 km in size, no specially built shelters would be needed, as existing refuges will be enough. And, in the case of 20+ km impact, no known shelters will help. Building large refuges results in many nasty trade-offs, which could even make them a source of additional risk. The map consists of two parts: the map of all known types of refuges itself and also a table of trade-offs which undermine the efficiency of refuges (Table 1 below). The vertical axis of the map: On the map, all refugees are divided into three categories: a) Currently in existence b) Possible, based on current technologies с) Possible in the future after super technologies, such as nanotech are created The horizontal axis of the map: On the horizontal axis is the distance from typical city dwelling to a refuge, which correspond to difficulty to reach it. Additional comments: 1. Space colonization as a refuge. I also include space colonization as a refuge type, but it is not exactly the same. The classical refuge is aimed on repopulating Earth after the catastrophe, but self-sustained space colonies may never return to Earth. So, they are more about increasing the resilience of human civilization by increasing habitable zones and thus zooming up needed scale of the catastrophes which could affect all zone. Space colonisation is not a universal solution as throughout human history, the size of possible artificial catastrophes has grown faster than the size of the civilization. 2. “Yellow submarine” project. My preferred idea of shelter is the one which I refer to as the “Yellow submarine” – that is, existing nuclear submarines converted into a "Noah’s Ark" with fertile and trained people on board, equipped with relevant knowledge and stockpiles. Nuclear subs were built to survive large changes in pressure and for prolonged independent existence in hostile environments. They are also able to escape detection in the case of war. Decommissioned nuclear subs could be converted into moving refuges for a relatively small price (compared to the total price of nuclear fleet). Submarines solve the problem of energy independence, overheating, oxygen, water. They could change their level of isolation. Some are equipped with nuclear reactors that can function for 20 years without reloading. Nuclear submarines are mostly limited by food stockpiles and the fixing of technical problems. Best literature on the topic: Most current research on the topic of refuges is summarized in the article "How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe?” http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328714001888 by Nick Beckstead, who is in general skeptical about their utility and suggests that they could help only in small range of catastrophes, namely pandemic and radiological contamination created by cobalt bomb. I agree that utility of refuges is limited but I think that there is more risks there they could help. Another well polished idea is presented in Karim Jebari’s article: “Existential Risks: Exploring a Robust Risk Reduction Strategy.” http://philpapers.org/rec/JEBERE In this article, Jebari discusses underground shelter with nuclear power in remote locations, which favours the resettlement of humans at a later date. Use of colour in the map. I have marked b

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    The Map of Shelters and Refuges from Global Risks (Plan B of X-risks Prevention)

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    Its time to take closer look on how we could survive a global catastrophe. There are many ideas, but most of them are shaky. This map is part of the map: “Plan of action to prevent human extinction risks”. http://effective-altruism.com/ea/ut/plan_of_action_to_prevent_human_extinction_risks/ ). This map zooms in Plan B of x-risks prevention. The main idea of the map: There are many ways how to create x-risks shelter, but they have only marginal utility for x-risks prevention, even if we include space colonization. Sweet spot of catastrophes for which refuges may be helpful is small (see their list in the Table 1.) For example, in the case of an asteroid impact less than 1 km in size, no specially built shelters would be needed, as existing refuges will be enough. And, in the case of 20+ km impact, no known shelters will help. Building large refuges results in many nasty trade-offs, which could even make them a source of additional risk. The map consists of two parts: the map of all known types of refuges itself and also a table of trade-offs which undermine the efficiency of refuges (Table 1 below). The vertical axis of the map: On the map, all refugees are divided into three categories: a) Currently in existence b) Possible, based on current technologies с) Possible in the future after super technologies, such as nanotech are created The horizontal axis of the map: On the horizontal axis is the distance from typical city dwelling to a refuge, which correspond to difficulty to reach it. Additional comments: 1. Space colonization as a refuge. I also include space colonization as a refuge type, but it is not exactly the same. The classical refuge is aimed on repopulating Earth after the catastrophe, but self-sustained space colonies may never return to Earth. So, they are more about increasing the resilience of human civilization by increasing habitable zones and thus zooming up needed scale of the catastrophes which could affect all zone. Space colonisation is not a universal solution as throughout human history, the size of possible artificial catastrophes has grown faster than the size of the civilization. 2. “Yellow submarine” project. My preferred idea of shelter is the one which I refer to as the “Yellow submarine” – that is, existing nuclear submarines converted into a "Noah’s Ark" with fertile and trained people on board, equipped with relevant knowledge and stockpiles. Nuclear subs were built to survive large changes in pressure and for prolonged independent existence in hostile environments. They are also able to escape detection in the case of war. Decommissioned nuclear subs could be converted into moving refuges for a relatively small price (compared to the total price of nuclear fleet). Submarines solve the problem of energy independence, overheating, oxygen, water. They could change their level of isolation. Some are equipped with nuclear reactors that can function for 20 years without reloading. Nuclear submarines are mostly limited by food stockpiles and the fixing of technical problems. Best literature on the topic: Most current research on the topic of refuges is summarized in the article "How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe?” http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328714001888 by Nick Beckstead, who is in general skeptical about their utility and suggests that they could help only in small range of catastrophes, namely pandemic and radiological contamination created by cobalt bomb. I agree that utility of refuges is limited but I think that there is more risks there they could help. Another well polished idea is presented in Karim Jebari’s article: “Existential Risks: Exploring a Robust Risk Reduction Strategy.” http://philpapers.org/rec/JEBERE In this article, Jebari discusses underground shelter with nuclear power in remote locations, which favours the resettlement of humans at a later date. Use of colour in the map. I have marked b

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    124 просмотров1 страница

    The Map of Shelters and Refuges From Global Risks (Plan B of X-Risks Prevention)

    Загружено:

    Turchin Alexei
    Its time to take closer look on how we could survive a global catastrophe. There are many ideas, but most of them are shaky. This map is part of the map: “Plan of action to prevent human extinction risks”. http://effective-altruism.com/ea/ut/plan_of_action_to_prevent_human_extinction_risks/ ). This map zooms in Plan B of x-risks prevention. The main idea of the map: There are many ways how to create x-risks shelter, but they have only marginal utility for x-risks prevention, even if we include space colonization. Sweet spot of catastrophes for which refuges may be helpful is small (see their list in the Table 1.) For example, in the case of an asteroid impact less than 1 km in size, no specially built shelters would be needed, as existing refuges will be enough. And, in the case of 20+ km impact, no known shelters will help. Building large refuges results in many nasty trade-offs, which could even make them a source of additional risk. The map consists of two parts: the map of all known types of refuges itself and also a table of trade-offs which undermine the efficiency of refuges (Table 1 below). The vertical axis of the map: On the map, all refugees are divided into three categories: a) Currently in existence b) Possible, based on current technologies с) Possible in the future after super technologies, such as nanotech are created The horizontal axis of the map: On the horizontal axis is the distance from typical city dwelling to a refuge, which correspond to difficulty to reach it. Additional comments: 1. Space colonization as a refuge. I also include space colonization as a refuge type, but it is not exactly the same. The classical refuge is aimed on repopulating Earth after the catastrophe, but self-sustained space colonies may never return to Earth. So, they are more about increasing the resilience of human civilization by increasing habitable zones and thus zooming up needed scale of the catastrophes which could affect all zone. Space colonisation is not a universal solution as throughout human history, the size of possible artificial catastrophes has grown faster than the size of the civilization. 2. “Yellow submarine” project. My preferred idea of shelter is the one which I refer to as the “Yellow submarine” – that is, existing nuclear submarines converted into a "Noah’s Ark" with fertile and trained people on board, equipped with relevant knowledge and stockpiles. Nuclear subs were built to survive large changes in pressure and for prolonged independent existence in hostile environments. They are also able to escape detection in the case of war. Decommissioned nuclear subs could be converted into moving refuges for a relatively small price (compared to the total price of nuclear fleet). Submarines solve the problem of energy independence, overheating, oxygen, water. They could change their level of isolation. Some are equipped with nuclear reactors that can function for 20 years without reloading. Nuclear submarines are mostly limited by food stockpiles and the fixing of technical problems. Best literature on the topic: Most current research on the topic of refuges is summarized in the article "How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe?” http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328714001888 by Nick Beckstead, who is in general skeptical about their utility and suggests that they could help only in small range of catastrophes, namely pandemic and radiological contamination created by cobalt bomb. I agree that utility of refuges is limited but I think that there is more risks there they could help. Another well polished idea is presented in Karim Jebari’s article: “Existential Risks: Exploring a Robust Risk Reduction Strategy.” http://philpapers.org/rec/JEBERE In this article, Jebari discusses underground shelter with nuclear power in remote locations, which favours the resettlement of humans at a later date. Use of colour in the map. I have marked b

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    из 1

    The Map of Shelters and Refuges from Global Risks (Plan B of X-risks Prevention)

    Time

    Refuges that are currently in existence; Types of risks: nuclear war,


    multi-pandemics, supervolcanic explosion

    Distance from typical habitats

    On the ground

    Underground

    On the sea

    Under the sea

    In near space

    Antarctic
    bases

    Mines, caves
    and subways

    Ships

    Nuclear
    submarines

    International
    space station

    Number of shelters:
    more than 10
    Number of people: hundreds
    Independent survivability: 1-5 years
    Ability to re-create civilization: high
    Vulnerability: medium
    Best protection against:
    pandemics, nuclear winter,
    fallout

    Number of shelters:
    around 10
    Number of people: thosands
    Independent survivability: thousands years
    Ability to re-create civilization: medium
    Vulnerability: high
    Best protection against:
    some types of pandemics

    Remote
    villages
    Number of shelters: thousands or more
    Number of people: millions
    Independent survivability: almost indefinite
    Ability to re-create civilization: high
    Vulnerability: medium
    Best protection against:
    pandemics

    Clever
    houses with
    reinforcement

    Number of shelters: millions??


    Number of people: millions
    Independent survivability: months
    Ability to re-create civilization: high
    Vulnerability: high
    Best protection against:
    pandemics, small impacts
    and nuclear war
    Price: high

    Number of shelters: many


    thousands
    Number of people: millions
    Independent survivability: days, may be weeks
    Ability to re-create civilization: high
    Vulnerability: medium
    Best protection against:
    explosions and acute fallout

    Number of shelters:
    thousands
    Number of people: millions
    Independent survivability: indefinite
    Ability to re-create civilization: high
    Vulnerability: medium
    Best protection against:
    pandemics

    Number of shelters: around 10


    Number of people: unknown, maybe hundreds
    Independent survivability: years
    Ability to re-create civilization:
    high
    Vulnerability: could be targeted in
    war
    Best protection against: explosions, fallout, pandemics

    Number of shelters: depends of a type of a catastrophe


    Number of people: unknown, maybe hundreds
    Independent survivability: months
    Ability to re-create civilization: low
    Vulnerability: high to natural causes
    Best protection against:
    pandemics

    facilities which will help to recreate civilization by preserving


    important knowledge, instruments, seeds, resources, but
    not people
    Number of shelters: now one
    Number of people: thousands?
    Independent survivability:
    months
    Ability to re-create civilization:
    high
    Vulnerability: high
    Best protection against: stochastic events, pandemics, nuclear
    war

    Special anti-extinction shelter


    in remote place
    as suggested by
    Karim Jebari

    Number of shelters: at least


    one
    Number of people: 100
    Independent survivability:
    30+ years
    Ability to re-create civilization: high
    Vulnerability: low to natural
    risks, medieum to human hostile
    action
    Best protection against: pandemic, nuclear war
    Price: from 2 to 15 billions dollars
    Place: secret fertile land (Alaskian island?)
    Power: nuclear

    Number of shelters: 10100


    Number of people: thousands
    Independent survivability: around 1 year
    Ability to re-create civilization: high
    Vulnerability: medium
    Best protection against:
    explosions and acute fallout

    Number of shelters: 1
    Number of people: 6
    Independent survivability: 3 monthes- 1 years
    Ability to re-create civilization: low
    Vulnerability: high
    Best protection against:
    short, but covering all earth
    surface catastrophe (airborne pandemics)

    Ship wrecks,
    rafts

    Doomsday vault

    Number of shelters: depends of type of catastrophe


    Number of people: unknown
    Independent survivability: months
    Ability to re-create civilization: low
    Vulnerability: high
    Best protection against:
    stochastic events

    Number of shelters: several


    Number of people: thousands?
    Independent survivability:
    years
    Ability to re-create civilization: high
    Vulnerability: high
    Best protection against: pandemics, nuclear war

    Islands

    Cold war command centers and


    underground cities

    Random
    survivors

    Closed cycle projects

    Bomb shelters
    and commercial shelters

    Uncontacted
    tribes

    Isolated
    biospheres

    Could be built using existing tech in 10-30 years

    Number of shelters: thousands


    Number of people: millions
    Independent survivability: days
    Ability to re-create civilization: high
    Vulnerability: high
    Best protection against:
    explosions and acute fallout

    Number of shelters: many


    thousands
    Number of people: millions
    Independent survivability: 1 year for some, may be
    more
    Ability to re-create civilization: high
    Vulnerability: medium
    Best protection against:
    explosions, pandemics

    Remote space

    Tesla cars

    with biosafety
    system

    Number of shelters: many


    thousands
    Number of people: thousands
    Independent survivability: days
    Ability to re-create civilization: medium
    Vulnerability: high
    Best protection against:
    pandemic
    Price: included

    Sea steading

    Independent living communities


    at sea
    Number of shelters: several
    Number of people: thousands
    Independent survivability:
    years
    Ability to re-create civilization: medium
    Vulnerability: low to natural
    risks, high to human hostile action
    Best protection against: pandemic
    Price: very high, billions dollars

    Distributed net of
    survivalists
    Includes hoards with food
    Trained people

    Number of shelters: depends of


    type of catastrophe
    Number of people: thousands?
    Independent survivability: months
    Ability to re-create civilization:
    high
    Vulnerability: high
    Best protection against: stochastic
    events, pandemics, nuclear war

    Specially rebuilt
    nuclear submarine
    (project Yellow
    submarine)
    Number of shelters: several
    Number of people: thousands
    Independent survivability: years
    Ability to re-create civilization:
    medium
    Vulnerability: low to natural risks,
    high to human hostile action
    Best protection against: pandemic
    Price: very high

    Moon base
    Number of shelters: one
    Number of people: dozens
    Independent survivability: years
    Ability to re-create civilization:
    low
    Vulnerability: low to natural risks,
    high to human hostile action
    Best protection against: pandemic
    Price: dozens of billions dollars
    Risks: could be converted into nuclear military base by state actor,
    and used in nuclear war, or attacked

    Risks: could be targeted during nuclear war

    Orion nuclear
    powered
    generation ship
    Number of shelters: one
    Number of people: thousand or even
    million
    Independent survivability:
    hundreds of years
    Ability to re-create civilization:
    medium, depends of many unknown
    Vulnerability: low to natural risks,
    high to human hostile action, high
    probability of accidents and failure inside the ship
    Best protection against: pandemics,
    impacts, earth-limited catastrophes,
    including collider accidents and grey
    goo
    Price: trillions of dollars
    Risks: could be targeted in space war
    or participate in it as actor
    Risks: the ship itself could explode,
    be used as a weapon or a source of
    weapons, as it has 100 000 nukes for
    propulsion
    Risks: opportunity cost because of
    high price

    Very deep
    shelters

    1 km deep with independent


    energy sources

    Mars base
    (Musk plan)

    Number of shelters: several


    Number of people: thousands
    Independent survivability:
    years
    Ability to re-create civilization:
    medium
    Vulnerability: low to natural risks,
    high to human hostile action
    Best protection against: pandemic
    Price: very high, many billions dollars

    Underwater
    town

    seems not to have much


    value as it would be vulnerable

    Risks: it could be places which


    benefit from extinction event, start
    an attack or make secret dangerous research

    Number of shelters: one


    Number of people: thousand or
    even million
    Independent survivability: indefinite
    Ability to re-create civilization:
    medium, depends of robotics and
    many unknowns
    Vulnerability: low to natural risks,
    high to human hostile action
    Best protection against: pandemics, impacts, earth-limited catastrophes, including collider accidents and
    grey goo
    Price: trillions of dollars

    High tech shelters against hi-tech risks, which


    could be built after 30-100 years from now

    Risks: could be targeted in space


    war or participate in it as actor
    Risks: transportation fleet could be
    used as kinetic weapon
    Risks: opportunity cost because of
    high price

    Nanotech based
    homes
    are able to withstand any external
    influences as adaptive shield

    Nanotech based
    microscopic
    shelters
    Deep in Earths
    crust, which are
    running humans as
    uploads and are invisible to any external hostile surveillance.

    Immortal bodies

    Digital shelters

    Upgraded human beings able to survive in


    space and any hostile
    environment

    Something like secret


    location of uploads in
    global digital network,
    or secret recordings of
    human DNA and connectome
    They may help to survive some form of Unfriendly AI, if it is not
    omnipotent

    Remote moons in Solar system, comets,


    asteroids, Oort cloud
    Use of self-replicating robots and manufacturing
    nanotechnology for building infrastructure, creation
    of millions of habitats
    Number of shelters: millions
    Number of people: millions
    Independent survivability: indefinite
    Ability to re-create civilization: high
    Vulnerability: low to natural risks, high
    to unfriendly AI
    Best protection against: pandemics, impacts, earth-limited catastrophes, including collider accidents and grey goo
    Price: may be the small, just one first nanorobot
    Risks of space war or space grey goo
    Risks of kinetic space weapons
    Risks of extremely large artificial explosions inside gas planets or of the creation
    of very large nukes
    Risk of wrong command to the whole system

    Alexey Turchin, 2016, CC3.0

    High speed
    nano-starships,
    starting colonisation wave
    Number of shelters: millions
    Number of people: DNA samples or uploads
    Independent survivability:
    high
    Ability to re-create civilization: high
    Vulnerability: low to natural
    risks, medium to unfriendly AI
    Best protection against: almost everything except false
    vacuum decay and strong UFAI
    Price: may be the small, just
    one first nanorobot
    Risks of space war or space
    grey goo
    Risks of laser weapons based in
    space which are able to target
    everything

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