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Studies on

Message

Diffusing:

Volume 1

By

Stuart C. Dodd

Compiled and Edited

By

Burt Webb

1

Volume 1

Published by

Dodd Memorial Library

Stuart C Dodd Institute for Social Innovation

Third Edition

Draft 5

November 2012

Copied with permission from originals in Manuscripts,

Special Collections,

University of Washington Archives Division

University of Washington Libraries

Seattle, WA

Not to be reproduced without the permission of Special

Collections

Table of Contents

The Life and Work of Stuart C. Dodd ................................................................................... xi

Sample of Stuart C. Dodds ideas: ...................................................................................... xiii

A Preview Introducing and Evaluating the "Pan-Acts Matrices" (excerpt) ..................... xiii

Things Categories of Cosmists Actions or Scientists Four Aims .................................. xv

Things Liked Most .........................................................................................................xvi

Pan-Acts Cosmos Pictured as the Mass-Time Triangle .............................................. xviii

General Systems: A Creative Search for Synthesis (excerpt) .......................................xix

Stuart C Dodd Institute for Social Innovation ..................................................................... xxi

Purposes ...................................................................................................................... xxii

Our Mission .................................................................................................................. xxii

Our Methods ................................................................................................................. xxii

SCDI Founder: Richard Spady .....................................................................................xxv

The Leadership of Civilization Building .................................................................. xxv

The Forum Foundation ........................................................................................... xxvi

Presidential Address project................................................................................... xxvi

DVDs available from the Forum Foundation .......................................................... xxvi

Founding SCDI Executive Director: Rev. Dr. Richard S. Kirby (1949-2009)............... xxvii

World Network of Religious Futurists .................................................................... xxvii

SCDI Catalyst: August T. Jaccaci ................................................................................ xxix

2008 Thomas Jefferson Returns ............................................................................ xxix

Jefferson 2040 ....................................................................................................... xxix

Unity Scholars ........................................................................................................ xxx

www.augustjaccaci.com ......................................................................................... xxx

Futurum Grid, 46th Annual Creative Problem Solving Institute Reference Sheet .. xxxi

SCDI Dodd Memorial Library Editor: Burt Webb........................................................ xxxiii

The Nexilist Notebook .......................................................................................... xxxiii

Radiation Blogging ............................................................................................... xxxiii

Rare Earths .......................................................................................................... xxxiii

Mindfields ............................................................................................................. xxxiii

Dodd Memorial Library ............................................................................................... xxxv

Dodd Memorial Library Editor Note ....................................................................... xxxv

12 available books ............................................................................................... xxxvi

List of 10 volumes remaining to be published .................................................... xxxviii

Overview of Book .................................................................................................................. 2

Preface to Systemed Studios on Message Diffusing ............................................................ 3

Preface to Article #1: The Transact Model .................................................................... 6

Preface to Article #2: A Measured Wave of Interracial Tension..................................... 6

Preface to Article #3: Can the Social. Scientist Serve Two Masters? ........................... 6

Preface to Article #4: Testing Message Diffusion in C-ville ........................................... 7

Preface to Article #5: Testing Message Diffusion in Controlled Experiments ................ 7

Preface to Article #6: Formulas for Spreading Opinions ................................................ 8

3

Preface to Article #7: Testing Message Diffusion from Person to Person ..................... 8

Preface to Article #8: The Logistic Law of Interaction When People Pair Off 'At Will" ... 9

Preface to Article #9: Testing Message Diffusion in Harmonic Logistic Curves .......... 10

Preface to Article #10: A Test of Message Diffusion by Chain Tags ............................. 10

Preface to Article #11: Clique Size as a Factor in Message Diffusion ........................... 11

Preface to Article #12: A Dimensional Theory of Social Diffusion ................................ 11

Preface to Article #13: How Random Interacting "Organizes" a Population .................. 12

Preface to Article #14: Three Momental Models for Predicting Message Diffusion ....... 12

Preface to Article #15: The Reactance Model ............................................................... 12

Preface to Article #16: The Tetramatrix for Modeling Macrosociology .......................... 13

Preface to Article #17: The Interactance Hypothesis .................................................... 13

The Transact Model ................................................................................................................. 15

I. Preview of the Model an operational definition ............................................................. 16

II. Categories for Social Action the Variables................................................................... 16

A. Six "Factors" ............................................................................................................. 16

B. Four "Facets" of Each Factor .................................................................................... 18

C. Translation of Categories between Systems ............................................................ 18

III. Pre-Conditions Connecting the Factors The Hypotheses ........................................... 19

A. Probability Pre-conditions ......................................................................................... 19

B. The Product Condition .............................................................................................. 22

IV. Formulas Deduced from Categories and Pre-conditions ............................................... 23

V. Experiments Testing the Fit of the Formula The Tests ................................................ 24

Notes .................................................................................................................................. 25

References ......................................................................................................................... 30

A Measured Wave of Interracial Tension ................................................................................. 31

I. The Rape Situation .......................................................................................................... 32

II. The Hypothesis of Inverse Distance2 .............................................................................. 32

III. The Factors ................................................................................................................... 33

A. The Tension, pI0, or anti-Negro statements. .............................................................. 33

B. The distance factor, L. .............................................................................................. 33

C. The population factors, PA, PB. ................................................................................ 33

D. The time factor, T...................................................................................................... 34

E. The factors of specific "level" of interactin4 (IA, ID). ................................................... 34

IV. Testing the Inverse Distance Hypothesis ...................................................................... 35

V. The Hypothesis of Inverse Time ..................................................................................... 37

Notes .................................................................................................................................. 39

Plates.................................................................................................................................. 43

Can the Social Scientist Serve Two Masters? ......................................................................... 47

I. Practical Needs and Universal Principles ........................................................................ 48

A. The research opportunity and the practical problem. ................................................ 48

B. The research opportunity and basic principles. ......................................................... 48

II. Serving Two Masters by Testing Message Diffusion ...................................................... 49

A. A experiment on a stimulus factor. ............................................................................ 49

B. An experiment on attitudinal factors 8 ....................................................................... 51

C. An experiment on the time factor in a group 14 ...................................................... 54

D. An experiment on a time factor in a plural vs. in a group. ...................................... 57

4

Notes .................................................................................................................................. 61

Testing Message Diffusing In C-Ville1 ...................................................................................... 65

I. The Experimental Design .............................................................................................. 66

II.

The Findings ............................................................................................................ 70

A. Saturation .................................................................................................................. 70

B. Speed. ....................................................................................................................... 71

Notes .................................................................................................................................. 75

Testing Message Diffusion in Controlled Experiments ............................................................. 77

I. Testing Diffusion A Case of Transitive Human Interacting ............................................ 78

II. Testing A Distance Factor in the Diffusion Product ......................................................... 79

III. Testing a Time Factor The Growth of Diffusion........................................................... 81

IV. Summary ....................................................................................................................... 85

Notes .................................................................................................................................. 87

Formulas for Spreading Opinions ............................................................................................. 89

I. Practical Problems for Leaflet Operations ........................................................................ 90

II. Theoretical Problems for Social Scientists ...................................................................... 90

III. Practical Findings for Diffusing Messages ..................................................................... 92

IV. Some Methodological Findings...................................................................................... 96

V. Some Theoretical Findings on Laws of Diffusion ............................................................ 97

Bibliography of Revere-Connected Papers ....................................................................... 103

Theses .............................................................................................................................. 106

Monographs Published ..................................................................................................... 106

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 107

Testing Message Diffusion from Person to Person ................................................................ 109

I. Objectives of the Research ............................................................................................ 110

II. Description of the Pretests ............................................................................................ 110

III. Analysis of the Pretests ............................................................................................... 113

IV. Hypotheses for the Theoretical Objectives .................................................................. 115

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 121

The Logistic Law of Interaction When People Pair Off "At Will" ............................................. 123

I. The Problem: "At Will" Vs. Randomized Interacting ....................................................... 124

II. The Hypotheses: A Logistic System, Its Random Subsystem, and Transact Supersystem

.......................................................................................................................................... 125

A. The Logistic Model The logistic model in algebraic form is as follows ..................... 125

B. The Random Precondition....................................................................................... 125

C. The Transact Hypothesis Enabling Isolation of the Logistic Model as a Closed

System ........................................................................................................................ 126

D. The Logistic Hypothesis when Three Non-Random Factors are Un-controlled ...... 127

III. The Procedure: Two Series of Replicated Experiments ............................................... 128

IV. The Results: Confirming the "At Will" Logistic Hypothesis in the Experimental Situation

.......................................................................................................................................... 130

Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 133

References ....................................................................................................................... 135

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 137

Testing Message Diffusion in Harmonic Logistic Curves1 ...................................................... 139

5

II. The Social Preconditions .............................................................................................. 140

III. The Mathematical Derivation of Models Matching the Preconditions .......................... 142

A. The Linear Logistic.................................................................................................. 142

B. The Harmonic Logistic ............................................................................................ 146

C. Units, Range, and Inflection Points. ........................................................................ 146

IV. Some Experimental Testing ........................................................................................ 149

A. Coffee Slogan Diffusing in a Town .......................................................................... 150

B. Contagious Behavior in a Boys' Camp .................................................................... 151

References ....................................................................................................................... 155

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 157

Test of Message Diffusion by Chain Tags 1 ........................................................................... 159

I. The Problem To Produce and Trace Diffusion ............................................................ 160

II. One Solution Chains Of Tagged Messages ............................................................... 160

III. An Experiment Comparing Four Motivations ............................................................ 161

IV. The Geometric Growth It Hypothesis Tested .............................................................. 164

V. Summary ...................................................................................................................... 166

Exhibits ............................................................................................................................. 167

Exhibit A: "Tracer" Postcards with Four Motivations .............................................. 168

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 171

Clique Size as a Factor in Message Diffusion ........................................................................ 173

I. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 174

II. Description of the Linear Logistic Model ....................................................................... 174

III. Methodology ................................................................................................................ 175

IV. Results of the Five Experiments .................................................................................. 176

V. Discussion .................................................................................................................... 178

VI. Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................................... 181

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 183

A Dimensional Theory of Social Diffusion .............................................................................. 185

I. The Field of Diffusion Theory ......................................................................................... 186

II. An Analysis of Diffusion ............................................................................................... 187

A. Analysis into dimensional factors ............................................................................ 187

1. Acts, A ............................................................................................................... 188

2. Actors and reactors, PI, PII ................................................................................. 188

3. Time, T ............................................................................................................... 189

4. Space L .............................................................................................................. 189

c

5. Factor conditions, Cc ......................................................................................... 189

B. Analysis of the timing and grouping factors 3 .......................................................... 190

C. Methodological tools for analysis ............................................................................ 197

1. Finite differences and infinitesimal calculus ....................................................... 197

2. Increment schemas............................................................................................ 198

3. The matrix as an analytic tool. ........................................................................... 198

III. Two Experimental Tests of Diffusion Models ............................................................... 199

References ....................................................................................................................... 203

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 205

How Random Interacting "Organizes" A Population .............................................................. 207

6

II. System A in Terms of Social Behavior .......................................................................... 208

III. System A in Terms of Mathematical Formulas............................................................. 210

IV. System A in Terms of Bits of Information, H ................................................................ 215

V. System A in Harmonizing Terms of Interacting Elements ............................................. 217

VI. System A Tested in a Human Population .................................................................... 219

VII. System A Interpreted .................................................................................................. 221

VIII. Summary of the Factual Inquiry ................................................................................. 223

IX. Possible Implications Interpreting the Inquiry Further .................................................. 224

A. Implications for "Systems" ....................................................................................... 224

B. Implications for "Entropy" ........................................................................................ 225

C. Implications for "Time" ............................................................................................ 225

D. Implications for Social Order ................................................................................... 226

E. Implications for Evolution ........................................................................................ 227

To the Reader of the attached offprint: ............................................................................. 228

Further explanation of the "Reactance" model .................................................................. 229

Formulas in Linguistics ..................................................................................................... 230

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 233

Three Momental Models for Predicting Message Diffusion .................................................... 237

Abstract............................................................................................................................. 237

I. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 239

II. Project Revere .............................................................................................................. 239

III. The Three Models ........................................................................................................ 240

A. Normal Curve .......................................................................................................... 240

1. Prose description ............................................................................................... 240

2. Examples ........................................................................................................... 240

3. Conditions .......................................................................................................... 241

4. Uses ................................................................................................................... 241

5. Testing in Project Revere ................................................................................... 242

B. Waning Exponential Curve ...................................................................................... 242

1. Prose description ............................................................................................... 242

2. Examples ........................................................................................................... 242

3. Conditions .......................................................................................................... 243

4. Testing in Project Revere ................................................................................... 243

5. Uses ................................................................................................................... 244

C. Logistic Curve ......................................................................................................... 244

1. Prose description ............................................................................................... 244

2. Examples ........................................................................................................... 244

3. Conditions .......................................................................................................... 245

4. Testing in Project Revere ................................................................................... 245

5. Uses ................................................................................................................... 246

IV. Suggestions for Applied Research .............................................................................. 246

V. Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 246

VI. Technical Appendix ..................................................................................................... 247

Senior Author's Bibliography on Diffusion ......................................................................... 249

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 251

7

Abstract (in 100 words) ..................................................................................................... 253

Abstract (in 300 words) ..................................................................................................... 253

I. The Task........................................................................................................................ 255

II. Findings from Project Revere ....................................................................................... 255

A. Nine well-fitting curves ............................................................................................ 255

B. Logistic curves an observed regularity of man-to-man or social diffusing in groups

. ............................................................................................................................ 256

C. Exponential curves an observed regularity of broadcast or mass diffusing in

plurals.......................................................................................................................... 257

D. Normal curves an observed regularity of multiple diffusing in persons ............. 261

E. Gompertz curves an observed regularity of full social diffusing in organizations

............................................................................................................................. 261

F. Harmonic logistic curves an observed regularity of resisted, social, diffusion in

waning pair groups ...................................................................................................... 262

G. Positive powers clan of reactants curves ................................................................ 263

H. Linear curves an observed regularity of proportional diffusing ............................. 264

I. Logarithmic curves an observed regularity of "diminishing returns" diffusion ........ 264

J. Harmonic curves an observed regularity of resisted diffusion .............................. 265

K. Squared harmonic curves an observed regularity of doubly waning diffusing ...... 268

L. Negative powers clan of reactants curves (Figure 2) observed regularities of divided

diffusing ....................................................................................................................... 268

III. Formulas Forecasting Reactants, Aa ........................................................................... 269

A. Four variables defined ............................................................................................ 270

B. Eight hypotheses formalized ................................................................................... 271

1. The LINEAR hypothesis expects: ...................................................................... 271

2. The LOGARITHMIC hypothesis expects: .......................................................... 271

3. The HARMONIC hypothesis expects: ................................................................ 271

4. The SQUARED HARMONIC hypothesis expects: ............................................. 271

5. The NORMAL hypothesis expects: .................................................................... 272

6. The EXPONENTIAL hypothesis expects: .......................................................... 272

7. The LOGISTIC hypothesis expects:................................................................... 272

8. The third and fourth moment submodels ........................................................... 272

C. Reactants submodels formulated ........................................................................... 275

1. Defining the sets of items ................................................................................... 275

2. The negative powers clan of submodels (= ) ................................................. 275

3. The positive powers, or moments, clan of sub-models (= lg) ........................... 276

4. Comparison of the two clans of submodels ....................................................... 280

D. Reactants model in seven algebraic forms ............................................................. 280

1. The "item-structured" formula concerning computation (of the amount, k, and

form, Aa, of the diffusing) ....................................................................................... 281

2. The "dimensional" formula15 concerning categories (basic to behavioral science)

............................................................................................................................... 284

3. The integrated formulas concerning consequences of diffusion ..................... 284

4. The rectified formulas concerning contents of diffusion .................................. 286

5. The regression formula concerning closeness of fit ........................................ 287

8

7. The "temporal" formulas concerning the pure process of diffusing.................. 289

E. Item-structured super models a-forming ................................................................. 290

IV. Evaluation by Three Criteria ........................................................................................ 290

A. Generality of the reactants model, [ = Aa C0] ........................................................ 291

B. Prevalence of the reactants model, Aa .................................................................... 292

C. Operationality of the reactants models .................................................................... 294

D. Conclusions on reactants modeling ........................................................................ 295

Author's References ......................................................................................................... 299

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 301

The Tetramatrix for Modeling Macrosociology Abstract ...................................................... 309

The Tetramatrix for Modeling Macrosociology Part 1: Describing and Explaining ............... 311

I. The Scope And Aims Of This Paper .............................................................................. 312

A. The four aims of scientists....................................................................................... 312

B. The domain of Macrosociology ............................................................................... 312

C. The four master matrices ........................................................................................ 313

II. The Planning Matrix developing Description ................................................................. 313

A. Its form and content ................................................................................................ 313

B. Its extension and contraction................................................................................... 314

III. The Systemed Matrix developing Explanation ............................................................. 315

A. Its nature products, not sums ............................................................................... 315

B. The transaction matrix ............................................................................................. 315

1. Its eight "transfactors" ........................................................................................ 315

2. Its four "facets" ................................................................................................... 315

3. Its four "functors" ................................................................................................ 316

4. Its internal matching relation .............................................................................. 316

5. Its external matching relation ............................................................................. 316

6. Primary vs. secondary analysis: Factors vs. Addends ....................................... 316

C. The Likability extension of transacts ....................................................................... 317

1. The Likes submodel (Refs. 6, 8, 10) .................................................................. 317

2. The Likables submodel (Refs. 9, 3, 4) ................................................................ 317

3. The full Likability model (Refs. 9, 10) ................................................................. 317

References to the Author's Publications ........................................................................... 319

Plates ................................................................................................................................ 321

Plate I: A Planning Matrix ............................................................................................ 322

Plate II: Dimensions of Societal Planning .................................................................... 324

Plate III: Conditions for Motivating Men ....................................................................... 327

Plate IV: The Reiteratings Matrix ................................................................................. 328

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 331

The Tetramatrix for Modeling Macrosociology Part 2: Predicting and Controlling ............... 333

I. What the Tetramatrix Model for Macrosociology is ........................................................ 334

A. The postulates as background input .................................................................... 334

B. The domain as direct potential inputs ................................................................... 334

C. The extensions as thru-put................................................................................... 335

II. The Stochastic Matrix developing Prediction ............................................................. 335

A. Its nature ................................................................................................................. 335

9

III. The Cybernetic Matrix developing Control ................................................................ 336

A. Its nature ................................................................................................................. 336

B. A logistic case ......................................................................................................... 337

C. An exponential case ............................................................................................... 338

D. A normal case ......................................................................................................... 338

E. Implications of these momenta] cases .................................................................... 338

A Post Script ..................................................................................................................... 339

Hypothesis A: .............................................................................................................. 339

Hypothesis B: .............................................................................................................. 339

Hypothesis C: .............................................................................................................. 339

References to the Authors Publications ........................................................................... 341

Plates................................................................................................................................ 343

Plate V: Table 1: Random Development of an attribute creating system A ................. 344

Plate VI: A Conspectus of the 'Moments Clan' Of Actance Models ............................. 346

Plate VII: Fit of the Discrete Logistic to the Observed Classroom Data....................... 349

Plate VIII: Summary of Major U.S. Wars U.S. Army ................................................. 354

Plate IX: The Epicosm Model Graphed ....................................................................... 356

Plate X: The Interactance Submodel Summarized ...................................................... 357

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 359

The Interactance Hypothesis: A Gravity Model Fitting Physical Masses and Human Groups 361

I. The Hypothesis Stated1 ................................................................................................. 362

II. Definitions ..................................................................................................................... 363

A. The Time Dimension, T ........................................................................................... 363

B. The Space Dimension, L ......................................................................................... 363

C. The Population Dimension, P ................................................................................. 364

D. The "Specific Levels" Dimensions, IA, IB ................................................................. 364

E. The Interactance Constant, K ................................................................................. 365

F. The Interactance, Ie ................................................................................................. 366

G. The Interacting, I0 ................................................................................................... 366

III. The Pre-Conditions Including a Partial Explanation .................................................. 367

IV. Techniques for Testing ................................................................................................ 369

V. The Evidence to Date ................................................................................................... 371

VI. The Dimensional Analysis of Human Interacting ......................................................... 372

A Speculatory Note on Generalizing "Gravity" .................................................................. 373

Notes ................................................................................................................................ 375

10

.

Overview of Book

This book was originally intended to be one of a set of four themed volumes covering the lifes

work of Dr. Dodd for publication by an academic publisher around 1970. Unfortunately, the

project was cancelled. This is Volume 1 of Dodds collected papers on Message Diffusing.

11

For a very long time men have struggled for control of their environment. That

environment has always included other son. Sometimes mod have moved toward, sometimes

away from this goal of environmental control, at over the long time span, man has gained nor*

than helms fallen back. The animal world has slowly gives ground to its self-proclaimed

master. The systematic application of sun's accumulated knowledge has caused the plant

world to yield to and for man. Even seemingly unending and unbending space seems now on

the point of crying uncle (be it San or Ivan).

The systematic institutionalization of this search for knowledge, mats-voted by man's

desire to control, we call science. But whereas the accomplishments of physical and biological

science have been awe-inspiring, those of social science have been much more modest.

In any field, increasing control comes only after vast amounts of time, energy, and

material wealth have been spent -- even squandered -- in the preliminaries of perceiving,

sorting, describing, ordering and testing of the data. (Sometimes the effort even seems to be

spent in the wrong direction, at the wrong time, on the wrong things, and for the wrong

reasons!) But out of such investments emerge new tools and new uses for old tools. New ways

of thinking about old problems bring ever more combinations of ideas and tools to be tested

and selected for the solution of ever more complex problems.

The social scientist, committed to the study of man's interactions with his fellows within

the environment, may take that most useful tool, mathematics to help describe, explain and

predict man's behavior. S. C. Dodd helps to do this in his Transactional Sociology: explaining

and predicting man's behavior in terms of the transact, B = APVTLC. That is, Behavior equals

the Acts-of-People-for things-Valued-in-Time-and-Length-of-space-and-residual-Context.

This collection of Dodd's articles in Volume 2 of the series entitled; Systemed Studies

on Human Transactions", deals with that portion of his work which bears on the diffusion of

items through people, whether small groups, societies, or whole cultures. The articles, as here

collected and arranged, provide a type of behavioral system summarized in a mathematical

formula that definitely unifies this human behavior-in-context. This unitary theory Dodd calls

the "Transaction Theory." It deals with acts-in-context wherein an early transact will predict a

later transact insofar as the two are matched, feature for feature.

Besides relating to Dodd's larger theory of human behavior as a transactional system,

these articles develop mathematical models for the basic growth curves of interaction and

In addition, however, to providing a systematic frame of reference for research and the

interpretation of finds, this volume gives a great deal of experimental evidence on stochastic

diffusing processes, in which each state determines the next state in a probabilistic fashion.

These experiments are empirical and, increasingly, controlled experiments, but still lack

elegance of mathematical expression here. Stochastic theory had not diffused, to sociology or

general social science literature, in the period when these articles were being developed.

The articles do, nevertheless, offer experimental and raw empirical material for better

trained mathematicians to re-express as predictive models that eyesore rigorously formulated

in mathematical and statistical language. If Dodd were doing the experiments now he would

doubtless try to express the hypotheses to be tested as stochastic-equations, with their density

functions, characteristic equations, generating functions, etc. It is to be hoped that in time

others will re-express his work in that way.

This volume on diffusion is the second of a series of volume that are being published by

12

Gordon and Breach. The first serial volume is entitled Systemed Studies on Human Values.

The second in the series is the present Systemed Studies on Message Diffusing. The third

volume in this series is entitled Systemed Studies on Opinion Polls. It collects some forty of

Dodd's articles with a focus on polling. The fourth volume in the series is proposed under the

title Systemed Studies on Interactive Symbolizing. All the articles in the four volumes together

account for the 144 of Dodd's research articles in professional journals. Most of these were

developed over the 20-year period 1950-1970.

Though unified in part, in retrospect, these represent a lifetime's research process. This

flow of incipiently tested thinking aims to help develop laws of human behavior in the

elementary field of diffusing item messages through a population and a period. Dimensionally,

the Behavior deals with Acts of People in Time. (An APT formula!) Increasing these behaviors

can be more rigorously stated as stochastic processes, or laws of changing probabilities. I see

scientific laws about events as sequences in time, which, if correlated, spell out effective

means to human ends. By this definition, few men, if any, have equaled Dodd's contribution to

the development of sociological laws about diffusion.

All of the articles collected here have been presented or published previously. Some

represent propositions for test; some are reports of such empirical tests. Although the use of

uncut articles introduces a certain amount of redundancy, this could prove to be useful,

particularly for those who are unfamiliar with mathematics and who find the material difficult to

absorb in a single exposure. The inclusion of Dodd's transact model (article 11), and the

reiteration rule (article 12), provides a broad theoretical base, and permits placing the diffusion

research studies into a larger framework.

Stuart Dodd chose behavior science as field before the term was invented, and at a

time when many scholars still asserted that it was t contradiction in terms. It has been he, and

men like him, who have demonstrated that behavioral science is possible. The dimensional

frame he developed to help order and guide his thinking has thus had a subtly profound effect

upon the development of sociology, even though it has not been widely used in direct

quotation by other scientists. Although not only yet living but still prodigiously productive, Stuart

Dodd has even so already become part of the folklore of sociology. I doubt if there are any

sociologists in the world, beyond the level of the undergraduate student, who has not heard of

him. Since I believe this to be the case, a little biographical material of how his thinking grew

seems in order.

Throughout his 40 years of-scientific productivity, Dr. Dodd has been putting out articles

and books at a mean rate of four a year. The main thread through these I see as seeking for

systematizing of the situation. He seeks the uniform, the invariances, the generalizations, the

laws that are increasingly emerging with greater and greater university. He has the general

point of view that scientific methods are any and all methods that enable us to so describe as

to explain and predict and increasingly control better than we could otherwise. He sees the

pursuit of what most men want, most deeply and durably, to be most hopeful if scientific

methods are used increasingly. But there is always something new cropping up, new

combinations and permutations of existent patterns, so that one never looks forward to a time

when all problems will be solved.

His missionary home in Turkey had a great deal to do with his feeling a high sense of

interest and responsibility to contribute to society, to speak up on how to improve the world in

the ways he can, which is chiefly through research. Others might choose political activity; his

brother, Alexander Dodd, chose life in the Society of Brothers, a Christian group practicing

13

community of goods, as a way of demonstrating by example how men ought to live together in

love. Two other brothers followed their father's business in choosing to become medical

missionaries. A fourth brother after fifty, found his best contribution in applying simple Christian

faith for rebuilding the inner city around community and spiritual values - becoming Man of the

Year in Stanford (Conn.) thereby. His sister pursued the teaching of art and its spiritual

messages. But behavioral research as a social scientist is the way Stuart Dodd has chosen to

make his contribution, chiefly. He enjoys bringing items that seem most remote abstract or

general into more Immediate, concrete, and particular application.

In his sophomore year in high school, he had an excellent mathematics teacher who

gave stimulating encouragement. One day the teacher cane into class and said, "Gentlemen, I

want to call your attention to something, and he held out Dodd's homework - - "After almost

3,000 years of geometrical thinking by the human race, here is an entirely new proof of a

theorem of Euclid's that Stuart Dodd has produced yesterday." Dodd hadn't even supposed it

to be unusual! It will be left to future generations to assess the full impact of the material

presented in this book. But all must surely even now agree: it is unusual!

This collection is intended for use by several audiences. It will be useful for graduate

students in the behavioral sciences, especially in those studies and theories which draw on

mathematics for more exact prediction of human behavior. Although students with a firm

background in modern mathematics (especially set theory) may find some passages difficult,

they will be rewarded for their effort.

Indeed, as the number of students with the requisite mathematical knowledge

increases, this collection of articles should find an even wider audience as an undergraduate

supplemental text.

Mathematics students may find some interest in simple applications of mathematics to

the social sciences. Students from such diverse disciplines as education, political science, and

communications may also find implications for their special fields of interest. And all social

scientists with an interest in diffusion will want this book in their libraries.

14

The first article presents the fundamental concepts and their interrelationships which

together form the theoretical superstructure uniting the various articles in this volume on

message diffusion. It presents a classification scheme whereby every behavioral transaction

can be analyzed in all of its factors categories (actions, people, time, space, values, and

residual circumstances) and its four facets (kinds, degrees, variables and systems). At the core

of the model are the propositions that insofar as its factors and facets are known, in just so far

can the transaction be predicted. Such a proposition is true by definition; its value is heuristic

and methodological. For it permits more exact resynthesis of previous analysis and theory. It

helps to test our current analysis of human behavior by its predictivity.

The cross-classification of the factors and facets produces a paradigm for transactional

analysis comparable to, but much more systematic than, Mertons paradigm for functional

analysis.

Some of the versatile, alternative interpretations of the four facets of every variable are:

in terms of geometry: points, sects, vectors, spaces

in terms of class-calculus: cases, class-intervals, Classes, classifications

in terms of set theory: elements subsets, sets, settings

in terms of corner scripts:

pre-superscripts, s1, post-superscripts, 1s, pre-subscripts,

s1, post-subscripts, 1s

In general, the four facets specify four levels of thoroughness in any transact analysis.

The four facets, or corner scripts, are generated and can best be operationally defined by the

four successive rounds of reitering. (See Vol. IV article #20 on "The Reiteration Rule" for more

details.)

Preface to Article #2: A Measured Wave of Interracial Tension

Research in a field often proceeds by exploring the field, narrowing it down. The

explorations Section II helped Dodd see the dimensional core of the behavioral and social

sciences as centrally the all-or-name acts and interacts of people in space and time. This

formulation seems to me to derive the simplest, most powerful, most frequent, and most firm

modeling on which to build, expand, compute deviations, and generally build up a more lawabiding science.

The first article in this section, "A Measured Wave of Interracial Tension tests a part of

the Interactance hypothesis developed more fully in article #17. Here, the effect of time and

distance on the spread of a rumor is measured exactly. It was found that the probability at

interacting per capita equaled the reciprocal of the intervening distance. The probability of

interactance decreased, likewise, with intervening time.

Preface to Article #3: Can the Social. Scientist Serve Two Masters?

The previous article, "A Measured Wave Racial Tension", tested two factors of the

interactance hypothesis, space and time, as predictors of the diffusion of a message. This

15

article, "Can the Social Scientist Serve Two Masters?" reports the testing of four predictor

variables from Project Revere in the diffusion of a message to a population through air-borne

leaflets:

1) the ratio of number of leaflets to size of population,

2) the relationship between the message and the value-system of the population,

3) the distance intervening between the inter actors, and

4) time.

The thrust of the article is two-fold, it is demonstrated, firstly, that research done at the

request of a paying sponsor may be so conducted so as both, to meet his special, needs and

also to advance the science. It is also demonstrated, however, how fruitful the interactance

hypothesis can be in suggesting candidate date predictors of the criterion variable, the spread

of a new message through a population.

These experiments on whole communities confirmed the four hypotheses, or candidate

social laws that mass human responses or interaction will tend in otherwise unchanged

settings, to be proportional:

a)To the size of the stimulation and

b) its importance to the respondents, and inverse to

c) the intervening distance and

d)the intervening time.

Preface to Article #4: Testing Message Diffusion in C-ville

Stopping a rumor is a hard thing to do. Social scientists who have tried it report that

starting a rumor is nearly as difficult. In fact, getting people, at the will of the experimenter, to

voluntarily spread any message, may take several tries. The problem is one of motivation. In

"Testing Message Diffusing in C-ville, part of the motivation was the reward of a pound of

coffee. Interestingly, although it is not reported here, an earlier version of the test had used

$1.00 as "bait" -- with negative results.

This little article is a model of exact research in a field setting where a large number of

potentially causal factors are constant so that the effect of the stimulus can be relatively unambiguously observed. It is also a model of how best to present the results of research -- in

lucid prose, illustrated by self-explanatory graphs, backed up by full documentation in tabular

form.

Diffusion over time was found to closely fit a logistic curve. Growth of the cohort of

knowers in the population through removes from the source closely fitted a normal curve.

Preface to Article #5: Testing Message Diffusion in Controlled Experiments

There is some overlap between the last article and the following one. Both report the

harmonic waning of interacting as distance increased that was found in the "C-ville"

(Carnation, Washington) experiment. In addition however, "Message Diffusion in Controlled

Experiments also substantiates the finding reported in Article 5 that interacting in message

diffusion over time fits an S shaped, or logistic, curve. This finding is replicated here on quite

16

other data.

The article here is also significant, moreover, theoretically as well as substantively. It

relates the observed findings to the transact model (Article #1) tightly. Note that as early as

1953 transactional sociology was being used to produce Pearsonian product moment

correlations or .999 and .935 between model predicted and field-observed data a rarely

accomplished nearly twenty years later by researchers using alternative approaches.

Preface to Article #6: Formulas for Spreading Opinions

By 1958, when "Formulas for Spreading Opinions" was written, Dodd and his

associates at the Washington Public Opinion Laboratory had learned the forms and

characteristics of the logistic diffusion curve dealing with the operational definition of it in the

present tense. They had learned a good deal of its causation or the mechanism producing it -the probabilistic interacting of knower with non-knower in a one-way action that meant the nonknowers would cumulatively decreases while the knower would cumulatively increase up to a

maximum of the full diffusion of the population. They had learned that this growth curve when

observed at any point in it could be used for predicting the future by taking readings further

ahead in time on that curve. The curve is what is now called a stochastic theory and an ergodic

process.

An ergodic process goes to the same end or conclusion (namely, diffusion of the entire

population) regardless of its starting point. This is coming to be a very important process. It

helps so synthesize the teleological points of view from the empirical and mechanistic points of

view. In the cast of human beings, language and words can denote future situations. Then we

use these words as stimuli from behind to push us into actually achieving that vision of whats

ahead. We are able to use the future when recorded in words as a prior mechanistic cause

determining present action. And so we get a beautiful synthesis of how nature works by

causes earlier in time than their effects. Through language man is able to project ahead and

use the future desired situations as present and prior causes of further behavior.

Now here in the ergodic processes we have a purely mathematical and probabilistic

concept that a process will go toe fixed conclusion such or diffusion of the entire population or

probability of reaching a given level regardless of what point you latch onto the process or

equilibrium as soon as the partial interruption is removed. Six families of such ergodic

processes, with the conditions productive of each, are presented here.

Preface to Article #7: Testing Message Diffusion from Person to Person

As we saw in Section II, an exciting discovery emerged from Project Revere: the growth

in the per cent of the population hearing a massage, when plotted, tended to show regular Sshaped growth curves. The logistic growth curve seemed to account for this as a simple most

likely product of knowers (p) interacting with non-knowers (q). So p x q measures the resulting

diffusion as a joint probability. These logistic diffusion curves are treated to detail in the five

articles of Section III.

You will find that the logistic hypothesis formulates a basic principle of interhuman or

group behavior, namely, "If people repeatedly interact to telling and hearing an item message

and do so with equal opportunity, i.e., randomly, steadily, and pairs, than the knowers can be

predicted to increase according to the S-shaped logistic growth curve that is defined by p t =

17

(pq)(t). The exponent (t) in parenthesis means a stochastic or recursive processing. It means

that the base is not exactly the same base that is multiplied by itself t times but it is each time

the base that emerged from the previous multiplication, whatever it may be and is the taken to

be multiplied by its complement for the next change.

This behavioral analysis is tested in articles 7 through 11 in near-imperfect resyntheses

by field and laboratory experiments. Here experimenters try to get people communicating in

pairs only, to get them communicating randomly and at will, in steady and harmonically waning

time rates, in controlled person-to-person ratios with equal opportunity and in cliques of varying

size.

These variations of the conditions are highly related to the law of gravity which is also a

case of p x q or a joint probability extended out over space. The logistic curve is the law of joint

probability of p x q when extended over successive periods. They both deal with the interacting

or intersects of sets of elements.Whether the elements in one case are molecules and in the

other case are human persons does not matter at all to the form, of the mathematical formula

that is graphed in a geometric curve.

Preface to Article #8: The Logistic Law of Interaction When People Pair Off 'At Will"

We just saw the overall research strategy and principle hypotheses of the Washington

Public Opinion Laboratory as presented in 1952. As then anticipated, this strategy was to bear

fruit in that as time went on, more and more of the candidates for sociological laws to be

demonstrated as being in fact invariantly true probabilistic propositions, given the stated

requisite conditions. (By "invariantly true" I mean true with a very small margin of error.) "The

Logistic Law of Interaction When People Pair Off 'At Will', is a case in point. An average

correlation of r = .90 over five experiments is here demonstrated.

Now in the theory of ergodic processes, the mathematicians have worked out two limits.

One is the domain within which the process can wobble from its definite course and not break

down entirely. (When it gets beyond the limits of the domain, then the whole system goes to

pieces.) An organisms metabolism may be lowered by heat or cold, and still recover, whereas

if burned up or frozen to death, it will die. The other limitation is the temporal one, the period.

The ergodic process holds good within a specified period and if it exceeds that period too

greatly, it can again break down and disappear.

One of the unstated conditions for the logistic law of interaction when people pair off at

will is that the domain and the period not exceed some as yet unspecified values. We know

that these limits are at least greater (under the other conditions of the experiment) than the

parameters reported here.

This article started to test Dodd's hypothesis that randomness can be operationally

redefined as multiplex causation. So-called random variables and distributions can be

analyzed and resynthesized as produced by large numbers of elements of much smaller order,

thus a million random tosses of a million pennies produces a highly normal distribution. Each

penny's coming up heads or tails seems in turn determined by an is unobserved but large

number of minute influences from molecular collisions (as in Brownian movements) up to

neural coordinations in the hand of any human tosser. Whenever the causal influences are

"multiplex" i.e. many and small with none outstanding so they seeming unobservable we call

them "random acts", "chance events", etc. This multiplex causation hypothesis has vast

overtones and implications in philosophy, science, and statistics. A simple indication of all this

18

was sought in this article by asking Will people behave logistically as random elements do?

When we observe many people each doing a small act or making many small decisions with

near equal likelihood, will the aggregate result fit a logistic curve of cumulating 'joint probability,

e.g. from random acts? The consistently affirmative answers from diffusion experiments in

Project Revere support the multiplex elements hypothesis defining randomness.

This article, then, indicates one way whereby controlled experiments can progressively

test the "multiplex-as-random" hypothesis.

Preface to Article #9: Testing Message Diffusion in Harmonic Logistic Curves

The next article takes up two questions:

1. At what speed will a message spread?

2. What will be the form of that spread?

As usual in Dodds work, the answers are specific to exactly stated social preconditions.

All too often in behavioral science this is not the case, leading to apparently contradictory

findings. The article proceeds by mathematically deriving models which match the

preconditions; by simulating, if you will, the social situation. Finally, evidence from

experimental testing shows that the notions about the "real" system as embedded in the

mathematical model are accurate and adequate to a degree seldom equaled in the social

science literature. The observed and expected curves match almost exactly with respect to

mean, variance, and rank order, the agreement of the three statistical moments that is better

summarized by the intraclass correlation than by Pearsons r.

Here the preconditions included a waning-with-time factor, 1/t, superposed upon the

three necessary and sufficient conditions for producing a logistic growth curve, namely

random, steady, pairing, of many interactors in mass-communicating; a one-way, all-or-none

item message.

The harmonic logistic model answers the questions above by saying: The speed and

form of mass diffusing of an item will be predictable by four factors, kpq/t, (insofar as all else is

constant). These factors are:

p = the proportion of current knowers retelling the message.

q = the complementary non-knowers becoming scarcer and harder to find.

1/t = waning of diffusing with time whether due to neural decay of synaptic paths (a

forgetting factor) or social overlaying the message by other succeeding events or other causes

k = the potency parameter adjusting units and reflecting the average interest of that

population in that message under the existing conditions.

Preface to Article #10: A Test of Message Diffusion by Chain Tags

Good theory is important, and good methods are important. Theory and method lie at

the heart of any science. But there is more to research than science there is art. The art of

choosing, or developing, techniques. Index construction, a good example of which we saw in

the last article, is an example of the artistry of the scientific researcher. Here we see another.

19

The "chain tag" is a simple, workable, yet very clever device for measuring or, perhaps better,

mapping, the flow of diffusion while introducing minimal contamination into the process. It is a

contribution to the "nuts and bolts" of diffusion research the kind of thing that makes people

ask, "Why didn't somebody think of that before?" Of course the chain-letter device has been

long known. But its use to measure and control diffusion rates in controlled experiments is

new.

This article is also significant is demonstrating, that at least in the late 1950s, the

patriotic appeal to national defense and survival was still a potentially powerful motivator in

American culture.

Preface to Article #11: Clique Size as a Factor in Message Diffusion

This final article in the group of articles discovering self- completing processes

compares the deviation from the logistic model as the clique size varies above and beneath a

clique size of four men.

We have seen that if the system deviates beyond either of its limits in size or duration,

the whole equilibrium or system may disappear. This idea of the ergodic process is going to

become a useful cybernetic synthesis of cause and effect, purpose and mechanism, the things

controlled by feedback loops where verbalized future ends become actual preceding events,

and so on. Dodd and his associates learned that the logistic diffusing was a case of the second

moment of an attribute in a population that changes probabilistically. The other statistical

moments of a distribution are the zeroth moment (p + q)0, which on repeatedly interacting with

itself generates the binomial distribution (p + q)n and the normal curve; the first moment (p, q)

gives rise to two exponential curves; the second moment gives rise to the logistic curve; while

the third gives rise to the negative binomial; and the fourth gives rise to the negative logistic

reflecting the bimodality-to-unity of the distribution. They discovered that these processes can

all be interrelated as the family of five statistical moments of any distribution, especially the

normal distribution. Is fact, current textbooks on stochastic processes will list these five and

about six or seven other processes as great achievements, or laws, of stochastic theory thus

far, but they seem not to realize that they are determined and ordered by the statistical

moments.

The next five articles on Momental Diffusion explore and develop these basic

stochastic laws of human mass behavior much further.

Preface to Article #12: A Dimensional Theory of Social Diffusion

with Henry Winthrop

Now we go on to the next set of articles, Section IV, on momental diffusion. These

expand and explore the different moments discussed in the preface of the preceding article,

#11. Again these articles grew from one to the next in irregular progression. The first one (#12)

with Henry Winthrop grew out of Project Revere to the 1950s. It explores different ways of

looking at diffusion as a discrete set of elements, and as a continuous curve. Depending on

which way diffusion is viewed, slightly different results obtain. The discrete curves fit human

data usually better since a dichotomy in population must change in jumps of whole persons.

20

The next article, #13, "How Random Interacting "Organizes" a Population" seems to me

to be Dodds most important insight into this process. It shows that when the two halves of a

population, p + q, interact with themselves repeatedly raising themselves to a power, (p + q) n,

in the binomial expansion (and the normal distribution as n becomes large), that this is one

mechanism that determines the normal distribution curve as observed so often. We begin,

thus, to account for one of the many ways in which a normal curve can arise as The Central

Limit Theorem in statistical says it must arise when the means of many sorts of distributions

are thrown together.

Another outcome of the random interacting in article #13 was that if the normal

distribution has its two arms on either side of the mean, plotted vertically as an ordinate on log

scales, then each of the arms become converted into the Gompertz curve of positive and

negative entropy. This accounts for negative entropy as the communication or information

curve by which things become organized and built up from the state of random completed

entropy to their present state, whatever it may be at all the different levels. Then the positive

entropy measures the physicist's observed entropy of everything running down from its current

state to a more disorganized or purely random state eventually. Every cohort of actants thus

seems building up with smaller and smaller factions to the midpoint of its cohort life cycle and

then probabilistically breaking down back to the bottom of the cycle. This bottom point, or

nadir, reflects the state of completed entropy. Here the whole process of organizing a cohort of

actants starts over again. But this start of creation, or the organizing of everything, at the nadir

is not a new or sudden event, done once for all and requiring an external creator to start it

moving. Rather it is the perpetual and continuous random process of forming and unforming all

the possible nn formation in any set of n elements or action or energy-operating-in-time.

Because the cohorts are coming on constantly, the binomial expansion tabled in this article

may be view as a generalization of it. In short, the last column in Table 1 may go far in

explaining continuous evolving and concurrent devolving throughout the cosmos (See Section

VI or Vol. IV for fuller development of what this article presages.

Preface to Article #14: Three Momental Models for Predicting Message Diffusion

The statistical moments have been referred to several times earlier, in connection with

diffusion theory. They are systematically presented in article #14 as momental laws of

predicting message diffusion. Dodd worked them out with William S. Peirce at the Great

Barrington Institute for Economic Research while on leave back in 1961. Peirce was an

economist and Dodd, of course, a sociologist. They published jointly, again indicating how

theses interdisciplinary moment laws cross-cut the content of the different behavioral sciences.

They are the pure forms of interacting of sets of elements here human elements. In this

volume, the systemed articles study content highly general to any and all sciences. In the end

we achieve increasing generality towards the unity of science which scientists hope eventually

to see emerge increasingly.

Preface to Article #15: The Reactance Model

21

The next article, #15, deals with the Reactants Models as a summary of the ten years or

so of Project Reveres researches. This project on message diffusing from airborne leaflets

used up something like a third of a million dollars from the Air Force and produced sixty articles

and a dozen Ph. D. dissertations and M. A. Theses. Its summarizing volume was never

published. Various difficulties developed. Before the Projects output described in the volume

could be fully checked, the group dissolved, so the volume is still in manuscript form. But this

article is the core of the chief findings. It deals chiefly with the stochastic growth processes that

emerged from that experimenting on the diffusing of messages from airborne leaflets in

communities. Project Revere, I think, contributed a large number of methodological and

theoretical insights and suggestions to the field. At the beginning the investigators mapped out

a thirty-page prospectus that had something like 100 Ph.D. theses titled. All of them were

projects which could have been carried through with the data collected; only seven or eight of

them were actually executed. The data thus are still a gold mine for Ph.D. topics and diffusing

or one-way forms of human interaction with respect to an item of knowledge.

Most of the articles in this volume on Message Diffusion report testings or follow up

testing from Project Revere. For another summary, of this project and of its exploration of the

dimensions of acts of people in time B = [A/P](t) is given in #6, Formulas for Spreading

Opinions.

Preface to Article #16: The Tetramatrix for Modeling Macrosociology

The Tetramatrix tor Macrosociology is the most recent (1970) of all the articles in this

volume. It presents a vista for future behavioral scientists to develop. Here Dodd sees the

various national Five and Ten year plans gradually developing through matrices of data. These

data are to be recorded ahead in plans and behind in fulfillments into matrices of systemed

data. The resulting matrices ought to increasingly express stochastic laws of a probabilistic

self-governing system changing in time. Such stochastic systems include the case, of course,

of a stable equilibrium or symmetric positive and negative changes. Tautalogously such stable

systems are likely to prevail because by definition they are most durable and frequently

occurring.

Preface to Article #17: The Interactance Hypothesis

From the foregoing explorations of the logistic models and the moments models, the

following Section V on Laws of Diffusion clinches the argument that dimensional analysis of

human behavior can prove fruitful. It does this by showing that real laws have grown out of it.

In the first article here, called The Interactance Hypothesis (Written in 1950), Dodd

realized that the interacting of people across space could be predicted by formulas of the same

form as that of Newtons law of gravity. This interactance formula is simply a product of the

relative shares of the two interacting populations (whether of men. molecules or anything else)

divided by the resistance produced by the intervening distance. As the action of each

population wanes linearly with distance from its starting point, their joint action must be their

product, which is the inverse square of the intervening distance. That law has become a

definite part of the social sciences now. All town planning and traffic planning and things of that

kind just take that law as a basic premise to forecast what the traffic will be between two areas

if channeled along a single highway or over one bridge, etc.

22

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