Dr.Yu: Russian Chinese and U.

S trilateral Politics
Felisberto Goenha

Trilateral politics and Stability in the Middle East.

For the United States, China, and Russia, arguably the worlds most influential nations,
Achieving stability in the Middle East is a clear priority and its influence on foreign policy is
undeniable. The Middle East is a region that has historically been known for its turmoil and
volatility. As Kissinger puts it, the Middle East has been locked in a confrontation akin to but
broader than Europes pre-Westphalian wars of religion. Domestic and international conflicts
reinforce each other. Political, sectarian, tribal, territorial, ideological, and traditional national
interest disputes merge (Kissinger 144). The region experiences a variety of complex conflicts
which threaten the many interests of China, the U.S and Russia. Broadly speaking, Kissinger
generalizes the current status of the conflicts:
The conflict now unfolding is both religious and geopolitical. A Sunni bloc consisting of
Saudi Arabia, the gulf states, and to some Egypt and Turkey confronts a bloc led by Shia Iran,
which backs Bashar al-Assads portion of Syria, Nuri al-Malikis central and southern Iran, and
the militias of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. The Sunni Bloc supports uprisings in
Syria against Assad and in Iraq against Maliki; Iran aims for regional dominance by employing
non state actors tied to Tehran to undermine the domestic legitimacy of its rivals.( Kissinger
144).
For all the nations that are being accessed in this investigation solving these issues is
beneficial not only to the prevention of instability, but are detrimental for the various
humanitarian, economic, and national security goals. In terms of relations between Russia and
the U.S, they have similar security goals but historical differences and conflicting interests, have

Dr.Yu: Russian Chinese and U.S trilateral Politics

Felisberto Goenha

served as deterrents to cooperation. China, on the other hand has be seen as the least likely to
become directly involved, but still has stakes within the region. The main goals of this paper is to
understand the international security policy routes each respective nation (U.S, china, Russia) is
taking in the region in order to achieve their desired form of stability. Additionally, the
implications caused by their policies on each other will be analyzed in order to understand the
complexities of the situation.
Both China and Russia were feverously opposed to the war. Putin described the Iraq war
as a total failure and said the Russia was sorry that its forecasts came true (Taylor). China on the
other hand has always insisted on a political solution within the framework of the United
Nations and has made unremitting efforts to this end( China permanent mission to UN).
Regardless, the Islamic State began to slowly gain a foothold in Iraq, and furthered its control
into regions of Syria.
In 2011 President Obama gave Al-Assad an ultimatum that required him to step down or
cease his use of chemical weapons. According to intelligence reports, the Al-Assad regime had
allegedly used sarin gas to gain an upper hand in the Civil war. This led to a bright red line
Obama drew in the summer of 2012 that suggested that Al-Assad should be punished in order to
shore up American credibility (Goldberg). American credibility is seen as detrimental to the
American foreign policy. Goldberg says, It appeared as though Obama had drawn the
conclusion that damage to American credibility in one region of the world would bleed into
others, and that U.S. credibility as a deterrent was indeed at stake in Syria(Goldberg). Obama
eventually chose not to follow through on the planned action against to Al Interestingly enough,
opponents of Obamas policy fail to recognize that the primary reason Obama backed down from

Dr.Yu: Russian Chinese and U.S trilateral Politics

Felisberto Goenha

his threats toward Al Assad is because of the lack of evidence directly linking the regime to the
use of Sarin gas.
In fact, the accusations thrown at the Al-Assad regime began to come under question At
this stage, Obamas premise that only the Syrian army was capable of deploying sarin was
unravelling(Hersch).Moreover, joint chiefs had been skeptical of the administrations argument
that it had the facts to back up its belief in Assads guilt( Hersch). In the aftermath of the
conclusive evidence that the sarin gas was actually used by the Al- Nusra front rebels funded by
Turkey, the Obama administration did not retract their justifications for potential military
intervention in nice
Syria ( Hersch). However the U.S took a more indirect approach. This leads to the proposition
that the subjugation of Al-Assad is not a direct necessity to American security and achieving
stability may not as important. This can be connected to Obama believing that only a handful of
threats in the middle east conceivably warrant Direct U.S military intervention(Goldberg).
This begs the question as to what exactly are the main security threats in the Middle East.
Since the Obama administration is trying to sustain an ever-growing patchwork of strained
alliances and multiple battlefields in the aftermath of the Arab Spring four years ago(Mazzeti),
it must also find a balance with the high-maintenance allies in the Middle east who seek to
exploit American muscle for their own narrow sectarian needs(Goldberg). It is evident that the
main security threats that are most pressing to the United States in the middle east is the
elimination of the Islamic state(or religious extremists in general), a secure nuclear deal with
Iran, and the ability to maintain its influence in the region especially in relation to Russia. For
example, president Obama has recently sent 250 additional U.S armed forces in addition to a

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Felisberto Goenha

previously sent 50 Special Forces units intendent for a counterterrorism mission rather than an
effort to tip the scales in the war (China daily).
On the other hand, there is the Russia, whose stakes in the Middle East can be said to be
greater than the United States because of the geographical proximity the region has to its
territories. Consequently, Russia is concerned with Muslim factor: Russia is very concerned
with the sources of Muslim radicalism in the Middle East, which feed domestic extremism,
including terrorism, in places such as the North Caucasus (Trenin). The prominent Muslim
population of the Chechen territories are an issue because it is possible that the religious
extremism will spread to the area and produce more security concerns for the Russians. This is
why Trenin says The bitter experience of the two Chechen campaigns is the prism through
which the Russian leaders view security threats coming from the south(Trenin).
In lieu of the threat that religious extremism has been quantified by Russia, it is easy to
understand why the nation has decided to play such a direct role in the Syrian Crisis. Since the
catastrophe that ensued after the United States toppled Saddam Hussein and destroyed the
countrys infrastructure a power vacuum was created. This vacuum was then filled by the Islamic
State (IS). The Islamic state then rose to prominence once the United States and its allies began
supplying and training Al-Nusra rebels in an effort to overthrow the Al-Assad regime (Hersh).
Both China and Russia were feverously opposed to the war. Putin described the Iraq war as a
total failure and said the Russia was sorry that its forecasts came true (Taylor). China on the
other hand has always insisted on a political solution within the framework of the United
Nations and has made unremitting efforts to this end (China permanent mission to UN).
Regardless, the Islamic State began to slowly gain a foothold in Iraq, and furthered its control
into regions of Syria.
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Felisberto Goenha

The Al-Assad regime is detrimental to the Russians because they feel that they are an
ally in the fight against radical Islam. Putin views Syria as an ally that can aid in the destruction
of the Islamic State especially since a sizeable amount of the rebel forces are known affiliates of
the Islamic State. It is also a country that holds a Russian naval installation which is
strategically important and Russias last foreign military base outside the former Soviet Union
(Fisher). The need to prevent radical ideas and militants from the middle east(Trenin) from
entering the southern regions has resulted in Russian diplomacy developing extensive
networking in the Muslim Middle East(Bhadrakumar). Syria is also known for buying many
Russian military exports which are vital to its economy (Fisher).
Interestingly enough, Russia and the United States both place the destruction of
ISIS,albeit radical Islam in general at the top of their goals for international security. The only
issue lays with each nations (perhaps more with the U.S) preoccupation with maintaining face.
A lot of this has to do with previously discussed red line that Obama proposed which maintained
that if Al-Assad did not comply with the United States then he would be disciplined. The disdain
for Al-Assad has resulted in a paradox because defeating ISIS and pressuring Assad to step
downare in some ways contradictory. Assads continued reign has been a magnet for foreign
Sunni fighters to join ISIS. But in the short run, Assads army, if properly directed, could be the
most potent anti-ISIS force(Kaplan). Russia on the other hand is aware of the ability for the AlAssad regime to fight ISIS but are often met with suspicion from the United States: these
persons (US intelligence) believe if the US fails to react with force, this will be viewed
by Moscow as a sign of American timidity, which will further encourage Russia to perform risky
and aggressive actions (Sputnik news).

Dr.Yu: Russian Chinese and U.S trilateral Politics

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According to Hersh, the Turkish government framed that Al-Assad regime for the Sarin
gas attack in order to precipitate a US military response. Not only this, but the United states
along with allies such as Turkey created a rat line that Hersh describes: By the terms of the
agreement, funding came from Turkey, as well as Saudi Arabia and Qatar; the CIA, with the
support of MI6, was responsible for getting arms from Gaddafis arsenals into Syria(Hersh).
These arms were given the rebels fighting Al-Assad but these very same rebels are members of
the Islamic State which makes it counterproductive to achieving international security for the
United States. Russia has grown wary of the United States project to manipulate militant
Islamist groups as an instrument of its regional policies and to further its containment strategy
against Russia (Bhadrakumar). Kramer says the reality is that the current Russian leadership
does not, for the most part, share U.S interests or threat perceptions. To say nothing of U.S
values. As long as that is that case, extensive cooperation and significantly improved relations
will be difficult (Kramer).
Similarly, the nuclear Issue takes additional precedent because both the U.S and Russia
do not want to see a nuclear proliferated Iran. Iran has been a clear opponent of ISIS and other
Sunni extremism. So the ability to work hand in hand with the country would provide an
effective ally for both countries in the fight against extremism. However their differences are
once again attributed for opposite perceptions of danger: It is true that Russia would prefer that
Iran not become a nuclear weapons state, but Moscow does not share the U.S. threat assessment
of Irans potential danger (Kramer). Although less now than before, the United States viewed
Iran as a direct threat international security. Before the nuclear deal was reached, Russia became
opposed to cooperation with the U.S because Andranik Migranyan said that, it is imperative
that our U.S. partners understand that maintaining friendly, mutually advantageous relations with
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Iran meets the strategic interests of the Russian state(Kramer). In any case, military action
against Iran would not only result in increased destabilization, but even be advantageous to
Russia:
The United States would be even more heavily mired in the confrontation with the Islamic
world, robbing it of huge resources, energy and opportunities. The upsurge in oil prices would
make Russia a major winner, giving it the necessary financial resources to restructure its
economy and allow for further economic development and increases in living standards.
(Kramer)
Although not making recurring headlines like the former nations, China has been seen to
be taking a more active role in the middle east: China is no longer willing to sit on the sidelines
and watch the region descend into chaos(Luft). An example of this is the direct diplomacy in the
form of China being a direct mediator between the Syrian government and opposition groups.
Xiaokun reveals that the Syrian opposition leader will begin a four-day visit to China on
Tuesday, in Beijing's latest effort to push forward talks between the Syrian government and
opposition(Xiaokun). Although Syria is only a part of the Middle East problem, stabilization in
the region is a priority because of Chinas need for crude oil. Daniels says that the worlds most
populous country consumed over 11 million barrels per day and accounted for over one third of
global oil demand growth last year(Daniels). Along with Iran and other major oil exporters in
the region, continued instability in the region could cause a spike in the prices of commodities.
This could lead to implication that could spread to the interests of parties like the United States:
The Middle Easts precarious security situation and fragile political balance constitute serious
threats to Chinas energy security and, by extension, the stability of global markets(Daniels).A
stable middle east will also produce an ideal environment for Chinas One belt one road
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initiative. Which is effort to connect the landmass and surrounding waterways stretching from
China to the heart of Europe in a network of trade and transportation corridors is crucial to
Chinas efforts to stimulate Asian economic growth and create new markets for Chinese goods
and services(Luft).
Accordingly, China has been quite vocal about the fallacies in U.S policy towards
stabilization. Tiezzi says: One thing is clear: an American-style war on terror, with military
operations overseas designed to attack and overrun terrorist strongholds, is not in the cards for
Beijing(Tiezzi). China has lauded the idea that issue of terrorism should be tackled at its root.
In Beijings view the war on terror as exemplified by the United States focuses too much on
the symptoms, eradicating militant activity without addressing the conditions that led to
terrorism(Tiezzi). Hong Lei further emphasized more nonmilitary action that could be taken:
The international community should implement relevant UN resolutions, and carry out more

cooperation in blocking cross-border flow of terrorists, cutting off the secret financing channels
for terrorism, and fighting cyber terrorism(Tiezzi). This Chinese attitude can be seen to have its
roots in the historical campaigns by the United States in which they attempted to use sheer
military force in order to eliminate religious extremism. Given how little effect military strikes
against ISIS have had so far (and the mixed results of the long-standing U.S. operations against
the Taliban in Afghanistan), its easy to understand how Beijing reached that decision(Tiezzi).
The Chinese find it perplexing that U.S. and Russian perceptions are still so heavily
influenced by the Cold War (Ying). The Chinese believe the destruction of ISIS is in the interest
of both the United States and Russia. Ying says, from Chinas perspective, Russia and the
United States share an interest in confronting the brutal terrorists of ISIS. The hope in China

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is that talks among Russia, the United States, Iran, and a number of other regional powers will
make progress in resolving the conflict(Ying). Between the three countries. It is evident that
cooperation is more likely to occur between China and Russia: Relations among China, Russia,
and the United States currently resemble a scalene triangle, in which the greatest distance
between the three points lies between Moscow and Washington (Ying). However, just as in the
past, even if relations between China and Moscow are merely normalized, the United States
views an iota of Russian-China cooperation as the two nations plotting against the United States.
Ying elaborates the view: The United States and its allies might interpret closer ties between
China and Russia as evidence of a proto-alliance that intends to disruptor challenge the U.S.-led
world order (Ying).
This being said, the status of the bilateral relations between the U.S and Russia is an issue
that often transcends the shared goal of stability through cooperative efforts. What is it that
continues to feed this rift? Besides the fact that the shockwaves of the Cold War relations still
resonate in each nations policies towards one another, there is also a constant character
assassination conducted by the United States. Cohen supports this view as he says The
degradation of mainstream American press coverage of Russia, a country still vital to US
national security, has been under way for many years (Cohen). The United States media
shamelessly illustrates a picture of Russia in a way that creates a negative connotation in the
minds of many Americans. For example Cohen states that the U.S Media have followed a
different leader-centric narrative, also consistent with US policy that devalues multifaceted
analysis for a relentless demonization of Putin, with little regard for facts (Cohen). Unlike
during the Cold war, the United States shows no respect for Russia at all. The United States
treats Russia as though they are irrelevant.

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Felisberto Goenha

On the side of the Russians, they reciprocate the heinous defamation of their legitimacy
through their attitudes in negotiation. The lack of respect the United States portrays stems from
the fact that they perceive Russia as thinking that they much less capable then the country thinks
it is. For example, Joe Biden denounces Russias ability to bargain because they are unable to
compete with the United States on issues such as arms control: He noted that Russias interest in
negotiating further cuts in nuclear weapons because they cannot afford to maintain even current
levels, because they are clinging to something in the past that not sustainable. As a result,
Kramer says the problems Biden identified, in fact, make Russias leaders less, not more,
likely to work with the United States on a whole host of issues. To add more fuel to the fire,
Obama also indicated that the United States will not abandon certain fundamental positions that

have been the source of disagreement with the Russian leadership in the past, such as
recognizing no Russian Sphere of Influence( Kramer). The continuance of these approaches to
Russia simply alienates the country and prevents cooperation on mutually beneficial objectives.
In Closing, the situation in the Middle East is quite complex and requires more than one
of the major powers in order to be sorted out. ISIS continues to be a nuisance that fans religious
extremism which is a threat to all the countries involved. The continued volatility of the region
will thus proceed to destabilize the region until a sound multilateral effort is made to expel and
prevent the issues making the region unstable. However, it has been seen that the States in
question have alternative agendas that prohibit cooperation. Collaboration in the region is not
only seen as imperative, but seemingly the only way for the countrys to achieve stability in the
region. Obtaining security will not be possible as the multiple approach each country takes may
undermine each others effectiveness. Unfortunately, it is evident that these barriers will continue
to hold and prolong the rate at which the countries can achieve progress in their campaigns.

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