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Construction of a Manpower Demand and Supply Forecasting System for the

Establishment of Higher Education Talent Policies ()

Sang Don Lee, Eui Kyoo Lee, Nam Chul Lee,


Sang Jun Lee, Kwang Pyo Hong, Chang Hwan Kim

There is a need to construct a manpower demand and supply forecasting system so that
policies related to the higher education talent

needed to bring about sustained growth may

be formulated. A great contribution to mid to long-term national development can be made


by establishing policies on higher education talent that are based on more reliable forecasting
of manpower demands. In addition, such a system can also help to maximize the potential
growth capacity of the national economy.
Manpower training should be implemented based on policies that reflect manpower
demand and supply forecasts based on the actual state of manpower over the mid to
long-term. The classification system for the training and utilization of human resources should
be constructed

based on sectoral characteristics.

This study seeks to identify policies that can help maximize the potential growth

capacity

of the national economy and sustained growth in the era of low fertility and an aging society
by constructing a mid to long-term manpower demand and supply forecasting system that can
facilitate the forging of policies on higher education talent.
The first year of this study revolved around the analysis of the current state and problems
with higher education talent policies. Its purpose was to construct a long-term manpower
demand and supply forecasting system that could help to facilitate the establishment of higher
education talent policies which reflect the changes in the internal and external environments
and the variability of the industrial structure and labor market. This should be achieved
through

the

development

of

macroeconomic

econometrics

characteristics and structure of the Korean education market.

model

that

reflects

the

During the second year, the main focus will be on the reform of the existing manpower
demand and supply forecasting-related statistical infrastructure. Such a move is designed to
improve the reliability of the mid to long-term manpower demand and supply forecasting
model. Moreover, a new statistical infrastructure will also be constructed to expand the
general utilization of the results of the forecasting model crafted during the 1st year. The
overall purpose is to conduct manpower demand and supply forecasts for individual majors,
with the main focus being on the higher education sector.
The purpose over the third and final year of the study is to set up a linkage system for
sectional mid and long-term manpower demand and supply forecasts and to improve the
compatibility between sections via forecasting in conjunction with a couple of selected core
sections which are expected to lead growth in the higher education sector. Another aim is to
build a sectional forecasting linkage system that brings together comprehensive higher
education and core sections.
In terms of its scale, Korean higher education has achieved quantitative expansion.
However, problems associated with low college and university education competitiveness have
recently emerged as major issues. These problems have been the result of the low
competitiveness of their education and research from a qualitative standpoint. International
research has revealed that the competitiveness of Korean colleges and universities remains
weak, and that, most notably, their educational competitiveness is at a very low level.
Futurologists and educationists have predicted that various issues such as the polarization
of society, energy/ environmental problems, and changing values will emerge alongside the
most remarkable changes in South Korean society, namely the advent of low fertility and an
aging society. These changes come as part of the continued spread of globalization and the
scientific & technological revolution.
The cultivation of global creative talent has been emphasized from the vantage point that
talent with global creativity will become the key manpower resources in the future society,
and that global talent will play a leading within the national economy in terms of the
industrial sector. The development of the right people and educational vision is required to
ensure that the higher education sector can meet such demands. Korean higher education
policies must be geared towards the development and training of talent with global capability.
This can be brought about by matching quantitative expansion with qualitative improvements,
and providers with consumer-directed demand.
We established proposals and the suggested direction for the construction of the
macroeconomic econometrics model (referred to hereafter as the KRIVET econometrics
model). Based on investigations of the characteristics and problems with the model and
comparative analyses of domestic and foreign studies on similar models, the following
conclusions were reached with regards to the development of the KRIVET econometrics model.
First, there is a need to attain connectivity between domestic industries. Second, in terms
of manpower demand and supply forecasts, there is a need to ensure that a greater degree of

reliability can be achieved in terms of prediction capability by properly reflecting the present
Korean situation rather than relying too much on economic theory. It was based on this
consideration that the grafting of the industrial connectivity analysis model onto the KRIVET
econometrics model was conducted.
The KRIVET econometrics model crafted based on previously developed forecasting
models consisted of six blocks. These were aggregate supply and demand, money and
banking, overseas, wage prices, interest rates, exchange rates, and the education market. The
blocks in turn consisted of 31 equations, 24 behavioral, 6 identities, and 1 equilibrium
conditioning equations. These were defined as 30 endogenous and 42 exogenous variables.
Estimation over the first quarter to the third quarter of 1990 was first conducted with the
KRIVET econometrics model, and then a historical simulation and turning point test was
carried out to assess the stability of the forecast model.
The results of the model examination were determined to be reliable, a determination that
was based on the fact that RMSPE for the major variables was less than 5 percent. While
the KRIVET econometrics model has the advantage that it can estimate efficiently based on
pretesting information in the form of a simultaneous equation, much time and effort is
required to carry out the estimation because it consisted of dozens of structural equations.
As priority GDP estimation is required for manpower demand and supply forecasts for the
higher education sector, this study estimated GDP by developing an AD-AS model that could
be adjusted to reduce the KRIVET econometrics model, and carried out further estimation so
as to maximize information pertaining to the KRIVET econometrics and reduced AD-AS
models to ensure its increased reliability.
The development of the first KRIVET demand and supply forecasting model in 1998 has
been followed by continuous improvements that have taken into account the strengths and
weaknesses identified in domestic and foreign studies. However, there are many limits plus
structural problems associated with the utilization of the existing model to establish higher
education talent policies.
As such, domestic and foreign forecasts of manpower demand and supply were analyzed
as part of the development of the manpower demand and supply forecasts needed to establish
higher education talent policies. The divided models for demand and supply forecasting was
developed based on still-usable data, basic statistics data-building, the structure of the labor
market, and improvements drawn from previous analyses of possible problems during the
process of forecasting.
Using the manpower demand and supply forecasting model, mid and long-term manpower
demand and supply forecasts were conducted for the period 2011 to 2020 on 28 sections,
with the scope limited to industries, jobs, and education levels.
Although overall supply forecasts couldnt be carried out because the existing statistical
infrastructure was inadequate, the study nevertheless forecasted the graduates from higher

education as part of its attempts to achieve the ultimate purpose, Construction of a


manpower demand and supply forecasting system for the establishment of higher education
talent policies. Additional studies will be carried out to improve this model through revision
and supplementation based on this study and the carrying out of forecasts by manpower
demand and supply majors via the adding of supply forecasts.
- Manpower Demand and Supply Forecasts by Industry
The total number of employed individuals, which stood at 23.829 million people in 2010,
is forecast to increase by an annual average of 0.8% to reach 25.743 million people by
2020. Moreover, with the notable exception of the wholesale and retail sales, food service,
and lodging industries, employment in the service industry is forecast to increase. Private
and public service and business are expected to play a particular vital role in increasing
employment.
- Manpower Demand and Supply Forecasts by Occupation
A rise in professional occupations is anticipated. This expected increase can be attributed to the
growing need for professional manpower in the knowledge-based society of today and in particular
within the service industry.
- Manpower Demand and Supply Forecasts by Education Levels
University or junior college graduates or higher are forecast to form a majority within all
forms of employment. Thus, although there is a demand for labor possessing high school
degrees, higher education talent constitutes the core manpower required in the present
knowledge-based society.
- Forecasts for Higher Education Graduates
The number of individuals with a university degree or higher has continuously increased.
This has been the result of the fact that our society tends to prefer higher education
graduates. However, the number of such individuals is expected

to decline due to the

drop in the youth population. College graduates will also decrease to some extent over the
period of 2010 to 2020 as higher education becomes more widespread. Meanwhile, the
number of those with a graduate school degree will increase at a little faster rate as
graduate schools turn out an increasing amount of graduates.
- Reinforcement of the Competitiveness of Higher Education to Counter Low Fertility and Aging
Low fertility and aging will bring bout a decrease in the productive population, an
increase in the average age of workers, a drop in savings, investment and consumption,
and a decline in economic dynamism and national competitiveness. The impact of this
situation can only alleviated by bringing about a move away from the quantity of superior
talent and towards the improvement of the quality of such talent. Policies which will help
universities and colleges bring about structural reform and enhance their specialization and
accreditation will need to be firmly implemented.

- Talent Policies Pertaining to a Creative Society


Policies to cultivate creative talent should be put in place as part of the preparations for the advent
of a creative society in which the success or failure of the nation is predicated on creativity. 20% of
workers in Korea can be classified as creative talent, a ratio that is behind 30% and 39% recorded
by the U.S. and Ireland, both of which represent advanced countries. This suggests that a strong
emphasis should be placed on the cultivation of creative talent at the national level.
- Talent Policies Related to the Revolution in Science and Technology
There is a need to expand the educational focus on technological convergence and
innovation,

and

to

invigorate

industry-university(including

colleges)

technological

advancement collaboration so as to actively cope with the rapid growth of future science
technology. To this end, there is a need to develop curriculums that bring together various
learning sectors and to invest in the expansion of fundamental study; reinforce research
ventures and support for multidisciplinary research;

and bring about innovation in the

form of a talent-centered research administration system in which researchers autonomy


and creativity are respected.
- Talent Policies Related to Economic Advancement
The knowledge service industry is forecast to emerge as a strategic sector

at the

forefront of national development. To this end, there is a need to open up new majors
and to operate multidisciplinary curriculums to help facilitate the advent of manpower
training convergence, compound sectors, and a service industry that can create significant
added value.
- Higher Education Talent Policies in Conjunction with the Advent of a Multicultural
Society and Globalization
The

importance

of

creative

talent

cultivation

as

means

to

enhance

national

competitiveness in a multicultural global society is expected to increase exponentially. This


can be brought about through such steps as the attraction of greater numbers of foreign
professors and students; the construction of a global talent network; the expansion of
international exchanges; expansion of elite universities or colleges overseas; invigoration of
the international education market for domestic universities or colleges; establishment of an
international

students

administration

system;

and

the

construction

of

qualitative

management system for education.


- Improvements to the Infrastructure as Part of Efforts to Construct a Manpower Demand and Supply
Forecasting System
The establishment of a mid to long-term manpower demand and supply forecasting
system represents an essential element of any efforts to establish efficient, substantive
talent policies for the higher education sector. There is a need to begin to construct a
statistics infrastructure which can help to reinforce the links

between education and the

labor market; expand the infrastructure and investigation of human resources demand and
supply forecasts; place a premium on the expansion and application of improvements to
demand and supply forecasting results; improve the level of quality of manpower demand
and supply forecasts; ensure the periodical construction of forecasting systems; and to
secure the necessary budget and manpower.

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