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There is a need to construct a manpower demand and supply forecasting system so that
policies related to the higher education talent
This study seeks to identify policies that can help maximize the potential growth
capacity
of the national economy and sustained growth in the era of low fertility and an aging society
by constructing a mid to long-term manpower demand and supply forecasting system that can
facilitate the forging of policies on higher education talent.
The first year of this study revolved around the analysis of the current state and problems
with higher education talent policies. Its purpose was to construct a long-term manpower
demand and supply forecasting system that could help to facilitate the establishment of higher
education talent policies which reflect the changes in the internal and external environments
and the variability of the industrial structure and labor market. This should be achieved
through
the
development
of
macroeconomic
econometrics
model
that
reflects
the
During the second year, the main focus will be on the reform of the existing manpower
demand and supply forecasting-related statistical infrastructure. Such a move is designed to
improve the reliability of the mid to long-term manpower demand and supply forecasting
model. Moreover, a new statistical infrastructure will also be constructed to expand the
general utilization of the results of the forecasting model crafted during the 1st year. The
overall purpose is to conduct manpower demand and supply forecasts for individual majors,
with the main focus being on the higher education sector.
The purpose over the third and final year of the study is to set up a linkage system for
sectional mid and long-term manpower demand and supply forecasts and to improve the
compatibility between sections via forecasting in conjunction with a couple of selected core
sections which are expected to lead growth in the higher education sector. Another aim is to
build a sectional forecasting linkage system that brings together comprehensive higher
education and core sections.
In terms of its scale, Korean higher education has achieved quantitative expansion.
However, problems associated with low college and university education competitiveness have
recently emerged as major issues. These problems have been the result of the low
competitiveness of their education and research from a qualitative standpoint. International
research has revealed that the competitiveness of Korean colleges and universities remains
weak, and that, most notably, their educational competitiveness is at a very low level.
Futurologists and educationists have predicted that various issues such as the polarization
of society, energy/ environmental problems, and changing values will emerge alongside the
most remarkable changes in South Korean society, namely the advent of low fertility and an
aging society. These changes come as part of the continued spread of globalization and the
scientific & technological revolution.
The cultivation of global creative talent has been emphasized from the vantage point that
talent with global creativity will become the key manpower resources in the future society,
and that global talent will play a leading within the national economy in terms of the
industrial sector. The development of the right people and educational vision is required to
ensure that the higher education sector can meet such demands. Korean higher education
policies must be geared towards the development and training of talent with global capability.
This can be brought about by matching quantitative expansion with qualitative improvements,
and providers with consumer-directed demand.
We established proposals and the suggested direction for the construction of the
macroeconomic econometrics model (referred to hereafter as the KRIVET econometrics
model). Based on investigations of the characteristics and problems with the model and
comparative analyses of domestic and foreign studies on similar models, the following
conclusions were reached with regards to the development of the KRIVET econometrics model.
First, there is a need to attain connectivity between domestic industries. Second, in terms
of manpower demand and supply forecasts, there is a need to ensure that a greater degree of
reliability can be achieved in terms of prediction capability by properly reflecting the present
Korean situation rather than relying too much on economic theory. It was based on this
consideration that the grafting of the industrial connectivity analysis model onto the KRIVET
econometrics model was conducted.
The KRIVET econometrics model crafted based on previously developed forecasting
models consisted of six blocks. These were aggregate supply and demand, money and
banking, overseas, wage prices, interest rates, exchange rates, and the education market. The
blocks in turn consisted of 31 equations, 24 behavioral, 6 identities, and 1 equilibrium
conditioning equations. These were defined as 30 endogenous and 42 exogenous variables.
Estimation over the first quarter to the third quarter of 1990 was first conducted with the
KRIVET econometrics model, and then a historical simulation and turning point test was
carried out to assess the stability of the forecast model.
The results of the model examination were determined to be reliable, a determination that
was based on the fact that RMSPE for the major variables was less than 5 percent. While
the KRIVET econometrics model has the advantage that it can estimate efficiently based on
pretesting information in the form of a simultaneous equation, much time and effort is
required to carry out the estimation because it consisted of dozens of structural equations.
As priority GDP estimation is required for manpower demand and supply forecasts for the
higher education sector, this study estimated GDP by developing an AD-AS model that could
be adjusted to reduce the KRIVET econometrics model, and carried out further estimation so
as to maximize information pertaining to the KRIVET econometrics and reduced AD-AS
models to ensure its increased reliability.
The development of the first KRIVET demand and supply forecasting model in 1998 has
been followed by continuous improvements that have taken into account the strengths and
weaknesses identified in domestic and foreign studies. However, there are many limits plus
structural problems associated with the utilization of the existing model to establish higher
education talent policies.
As such, domestic and foreign forecasts of manpower demand and supply were analyzed
as part of the development of the manpower demand and supply forecasts needed to establish
higher education talent policies. The divided models for demand and supply forecasting was
developed based on still-usable data, basic statistics data-building, the structure of the labor
market, and improvements drawn from previous analyses of possible problems during the
process of forecasting.
Using the manpower demand and supply forecasting model, mid and long-term manpower
demand and supply forecasts were conducted for the period 2011 to 2020 on 28 sections,
with the scope limited to industries, jobs, and education levels.
Although overall supply forecasts couldnt be carried out because the existing statistical
infrastructure was inadequate, the study nevertheless forecasted the graduates from higher
drop in the youth population. College graduates will also decrease to some extent over the
period of 2010 to 2020 as higher education becomes more widespread. Meanwhile, the
number of those with a graduate school degree will increase at a little faster rate as
graduate schools turn out an increasing amount of graduates.
- Reinforcement of the Competitiveness of Higher Education to Counter Low Fertility and Aging
Low fertility and aging will bring bout a decrease in the productive population, an
increase in the average age of workers, a drop in savings, investment and consumption,
and a decline in economic dynamism and national competitiveness. The impact of this
situation can only alleviated by bringing about a move away from the quantity of superior
talent and towards the improvement of the quality of such talent. Policies which will help
universities and colleges bring about structural reform and enhance their specialization and
accreditation will need to be firmly implemented.
and
to
invigorate
industry-university(including
colleges)
technological
advancement collaboration so as to actively cope with the rapid growth of future science
technology. To this end, there is a need to develop curriculums that bring together various
learning sectors and to invest in the expansion of fundamental study; reinforce research
ventures and support for multidisciplinary research;
at the
forefront of national development. To this end, there is a need to open up new majors
and to operate multidisciplinary curriculums to help facilitate the advent of manpower
training convergence, compound sectors, and a service industry that can create significant
added value.
- Higher Education Talent Policies in Conjunction with the Advent of a Multicultural
Society and Globalization
The
importance
of
creative
talent
cultivation
as
means
to
enhance
national
students
administration
system;
and
the
construction
of
qualitative
labor market; expand the infrastructure and investigation of human resources demand and
supply forecasts; place a premium on the expansion and application of improvements to
demand and supply forecasting results; improve the level of quality of manpower demand
and supply forecasts; ensure the periodical construction of forecasting systems; and to
secure the necessary budget and manpower.