Analysis of Ability To Pay (Atp) and Willingness To Pay (WTP) Airport Train Users

The 18th FSTPT International Symposium, Unila, Bandar Lampung, August 28th, 2015
ANALYSIS OF ABILITY TO PAY (ATP) AND

WILLINGNESS TO PAY (WTP) AIRPORT TRAIN USERS
(Case Study: Soekarno-Hatta International Airport)
Dwi Novi Wulansari
Program Magister Teknik Sipil
Fakultas Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan
Institut Teknologi Bandung
Jl. Ganesha No. 10 Bandung 40132 Telp./Fax: 6222-2506445
email: nop_phi13@yahoo.com
Ofyar Z. Tamin
email: ofyarz@yahoo.com
Sony Sulaksono Wibowo

email: sonyssw@si.itb.ac.id
Widyarini Weningtyas
email: reenee.filan@gmail.com
Abstract
In setting airport train fares needs to consider the ability to pay (ATP) and willingness to pay (WTP)
prospective users of airport train. This study analyzes the value of ATP-WTP using a discrete choice analysis
methods on the behavior of individuals with a stated preference techniques (SP). Where a range of values of
ATP are at the airport train election probability of 0.5 to 0.9. While the WTP values are at the airport train
election probability of 0.5. The model used is the mode choice logit model-binomial-difference and logit
models-binomial-ratio, with the selection of two modes under review are 1) airport train and bus Damri, 2)
airport train and taxis, 3) airport train and private vehicles (cars). Analysis results of the third mode choice
models showed that WTP Bus Damri value smaller than the value of WTP taxis and cars. So WTP Bus
Damri can be used as the highest limit airport train fares.
Keywords: Ability to Pay, Willingness to Pay, Discrete Choice Analysis
INTRODUCTION
The airport is an important node in air transport network. The most busiest airport in Indonesia is
Soekarno-Hatta International Airport. Now days, Soekarno-Hatta International Airport has not
been supported by the adequate accessibility. Most of the accessibility to the airport still
use land transportation shuttles that travel time can not be predicted. If the dense traffic
conditions occurs and weather disturbances (flood) often makes no certainty time to get to
the airport. To overcome these problems, rail transport can be choose to be mode that
access the airport. The train is a mode of transportation that moves in the rail (on separate
lines with other modes) and capable of carrying passengers with a large capacity, making it
very suitable for use as a solution to deal with congestion and can also provide certainty
the time to get to the airport.
In order to support the transportion to the airports, it needs considered some policies,
including the determination of fare that will apply. Airport train fares should be affordable
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by the community, in terms of the provision of transport services in accordance with the
level of purchasing power with regard to the survive and development of enterprises such
transport services. From the description above, the author tries to analyze the train fare
service with ability to pay (ATP) and willingness to pay (WTP) method based on the travel
behavior of the prospective user of airport train, with a case study on the Soekarno Hatta
International Airport. This study may able to give an fares setting policy in accordance
with the ability and willingness of train users to the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport.
LITERATURE
Theory of Demand
Demand theory explains the character of the relationship between the demand and prices.
Demand for goods and services are generally very dependent on consumer income and the
prices of goods and services relative to other prices. The law of demand, in fact the lower
the price of an item then the more demand for goods. Conversely, the higher the price of an
item the less demand for goods. From the hypothesis proficiency level can be concluded,
that:
1. If the price of a good rises, then the buyer will look for other items that can be used as
a substitute for such goods, and vice versa if the goods are down, consumers will
increase the purchase of goods.
2. The rise in prices led to reduced consumer real incomes, forcing consumers to reduce
purchases, especially of goods will rise in price.
Based on the character of the relationship between the demand and the price, the demand
curve can be graphed below.
Figure 1 Demand Curve

Concept of Ability to Pay (ATP) dan Willingness to Pay (WTP)
Ability To Pay (ATP) is a person's ability to pay for services received based on ideal
income. While the willingness to pay (WTP) is the willingness of users to issue a reward
for services obtained. ATP and WTP values need to be known to protect consumers from
potential abuse of monopoly utility that control a price and quality services (The CIE,
2001).
Ability to Pay (ATP)
One of the methods used in analyzing the value of ATP is the travel costs method (TCM).
TCM method assumes that the demand of travel to a particular location depends on travel
expenses, income, site characteristics, price of replacement, and others. The travel costs
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can differ from one location to another depending on the distance, where the costs are
lower for people nearby and costs are higher for people who live further away. In addition
to TCM method, ATP analysis can also be performed with a normative approach that
underlies the theory of taxation (Musgrave, 1975). ATP principle is in line with the
economic capacity of the taxpayer, which means that for public projects, people who can
afford to pay more should pay more. ATP principle is usually referred to equal marginal
sacrifice principle.
Willingness to Pay (WTP)
In general, WTP analysis can be done using several methods, including Contingent
Valuation method (CVM), Conjoint Analysis and Discrete Choice Analysis.
1. Contigent Valuation Method, (CVM)
Contingent valuation method is a survey-based methodology to obtain a value on goods,
services, and facilities. The first contingent valuation study conducted by Davis (1963) to
estimate the value of big game hunting in Maine. As defined by Klose (Klose, 1999, in
Mataria), CVM is a direct hypothetical survey techniques used to assess the maximum
amount of money that respondents would be willing to pay to benefit from commodity
offered. CV method of estimating a market value of goods when there is no exist (category
stated reference method), which revealed preference method can not be applied.
2. Conjoint Analysis
Conjoint analysis first introduced in marketing literature by Green and Rao (1971). In
general, conjoint analysis is a technique for measuring the structure of individual
preferences through systematic variation of product attributes in the experimental design.
Product attributes are considered as a set of possibilities for realization, which is referred to
as the attribute level. Respondents were presented a number of product profile consisting
of the realization of the product attributes and the profile set according to the perceived
preferences, for example by showing the rank order in relation to the degree of preference.
Evaluation of overall preference is used to make conclusions from the relative contribution
of the different levels of attributes. Final stages of assessment and evaluation is part of a
complete product stimulus is called a utility product.
3. Discrete Choice Analysis
A straightforward approach is fairly simple to predict the choices on the market provided
by the theory of discrete choice, this theory is formulated for economic analysis by
McFadden (1974). McFadden conceptual basis for the analysis of the economic analysis is
based on the idea of random utility Thurstone (1927). Assuming that individuals make
choices to maximize their utility, where utility refers to the behavior and perceptions of
individuals. Discrete choice analysis is also referred to as a choice-based conjoint analysis
(Louviere and Woodworth, 1983). Conjunction with conjoint analysis lies in the ability
of both methods to decipher the product to the attribute level and estimate the utility
assessment for each level. The second methodology is quite different methods. Conjoint
analysis estimated assessment for each respondent individually based on the data of
respondents, whereas the discrete analysis choise estimates at the aggregate level using
data from all respondents.
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Discrete Choice Models
According to Tamin (2008), generally, discrete choice model expressed as probability of
each individual to choose an option that is a function of socio-economic characteristics and
the attractiveness of such options. To declare the appeal of an alternative, used the concept
of utility (defined as something that is maximized by each individual). Domencich and
McFadden (975) and Williams (1977), as quoted from Tamin (2008), suggests that each
set of utility options Uin for each individual n. Modelers who is also an observer of the
system does not have complete information about all of the elements considered by
individuals who make choices. So, in making the model assumed that Uin can be expressed
in two components, namely:
1. Vin is measured as a function of the measured attributes.
2. Random choice in, reflecting the particulars of each individual, including mistakes
made by modelers.
In general, these effects can be expressed:
Uin = Vin + in
where:
Uin = utility of alternative i for decision makers n
Vin = deterministic utility function of modes i for the individual n
in = random error (random error) or stochastic component and a particular distribution
function
The equation can explain things that are not rational. For example, two individuals with
similar attributes and has the same set of options may choose different options and some
people do not always choose the best alternative. So that the equation is correct, it takes a
homogenous population. Individuals who are in a homogeneous population will act
rationally and have the right information so that normally can specify options that can
maximize the utility of each individual in accordance with legal restrictions, social,
physical, time and money.
Binomial Logit Model
Decision-making on the binomial logit model is determined on a pair of discrete
alternatives, which will be selected alternative is to have the largest utility, the utility in
this case is seen as random utility. In this study the behavior of elections passenger
transport modes to be observed is between the airport train and existing modes (Damri
Bus, taxi and car). With two alternate modes of the equation can be written as follows.
= +
and
= 1
where:
PKA is the probability for airport train
PModa is the probability for the existing modes, namely: Damri bus / taxi / car
By using linear regression method, there are two types of models are often used, namely
the logit-binomial-difference model and the logit- binomial-ratio model. On logitbinomial-difference model, the probability that the individual chose the airport train is a
202
utility function of the difference between the two modes. Assuming a linear utility
function, then the difference can be expressed in the form of utility difference in the
number of n relevant attributes between the two modes, formulated as follows:
UKA Umoda = 0 + 1.(X1KA X1moda) + 2.(X2KA X2moda) + ... + n.(XnKA Xnmoda)
where UKA-Umoda is the individual response to the statement of choice, 0 is a constanta, 1,
2 and n are the coefficients of each attribute are determined by multiple linear regression.
Thus, the probability value which is reviewed both modes can be written in the form of the
following equation.
( )
= + = 1+()
1
= 1 = 1+()
Utility value as the individual response can also be expressed in terms of the probability of
selecting a particular mode, known as transformation Berkson-Theil, the equation is as
follows.
[
]
1
= 1 + 1 . (1 1 ) + 2 . (2 2 ) + 3 . (3 3 ) +
4 . (4 4 )
As for the logit-binomial-ratio model, the proportion of PKA is expressed by the following
equation.
1
=
1+(
and
= 1
where (
) is the ratio of the attributes of the airport train to the existing modes. By
doing some simplification, the equation can be rewritten into the following equation.
[1 + (
= (
) ]=1
The equation can then be rewritten in logarithmic form as the following equation.
1
( ) = log +
Technical Survey
When we did a study, traditionally we observe or ask what people actually do. In these
data, because the behavior of individuals who are actually known, which is usually
assumed that the information is reliable and can be obtained from retrospective
questionnaire, this data is called revealed preference data (Revealed Preference, RP). On
the other hand, in a questionnaire or interview survey we asked, "If you are facing a
particular situation, what would you do?" In this data because of the reaction given by the
respondent is not the actual behavior, but only a statement of preference, the data is called
203
data Stated Preference (SP). RP and SP data characteristics are summarized in the
following table (Morikawa and Ben-Akiva, 1992).
Table 1 Characteristics Data RT and SP
Data RP
Data SP
Preference
Information
The result of the actual behaviour

Consistent with the behaviour in
the real market
We can get Choice result
Alternatives
Attributes
Only existing alternatives

Measurement error
Limited range of attributes levels
Possibility of collinearity among
attributes
Non-clear
One response per respondent
Expression under the hypothetical situation

Possibility of inconsistent with the behaviour in
the real market
We can get Ranking, Rating, Choice,
etc.
Existing and non-existing alternatives
No measurment error
Extensibility of the range of attributes levels
Controllability of the collinearity among
attributes
Clear
One or more response(s) per respondent
Choice Set
Number of
Response(s)
This study used technique Stated Prefence (SP), where the alternative hypothesis which
will be given a choice between the airport train to the existing modes (Bus Damri, taxis
and cars). In accordance with the previous explanation, SP technique is characterized by
the use of experimental design to build an alternative hypothesis to the situation
(hypothetical situation), which is then presented to the respondents. Several factors need to
be considered in the design of the SP experiment is as follows:
1. Response Form (Ranking/ Rating/ Choice/ Degree of Preference)
2. Analytical Method
Available analytical method is related to response form. Pearmain et al. (1991)
introduces four types of analytical methods, i.e.,
Naive or graphical methods
Non-metric scaling
Regression
Logit and probit models
3. Number of samples
Data collection needs huge cost. After the analytical method has been determined, we
need to decide the necessery number of samples.
4. Attributes (Measurement)
How many levels should be treated and how to set attributes (absolute value,
percentage and so on) should be considered.
5. Attribute Levels
This factor considers how many levels should be treated and how to set attributes
(absolute value, percentage, etc.). Attribute levels in experimental design usually is
'orthogonal', namely to ensure that the attributes presented to respondents varied
independently of one another. The result is that the effect of each attribute on the
response level more easily isolated. This is to avoid a 'multi-colinearity' between
attributes, which is a common problem with the data RP.
204
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
In general, trip to the airport is an occasional trips. So that in making such trips,
determining the selection mode of transportation to the airport is usually based on a utility
transport modes are offered. This concept can be applied to the determination of the value
of ATP-WTP airport train, namely the discrete choice analysis. ATP-WTP value is
determined based on the probability of being simulated mode choice. In the selection of
transportation modes, decision makers (consumers) tend to maximize the utility of a
choice. So an alternative mode which has the highest utility has a great chance to be
selected.
Selection of modes of transport may be affected by trips and service attributes of each
alternative modes and also socio-economic conditions. Assuming that the selection of
public passenger transport modes to be used by the traveler is an individual decision, the
research conducted at the level disaggregate approach. This research data collection
includes two types of data, i.e. secondary data and primary data. Secondary and primary
data that have been obtained are then processed to be used as input data in the process of
further analysis.
Secondary Data Collection
Secondary data in this study used data airport train development plan, data of existing
transport modes and questionnaire data obtained from the study report ATP-WTP train
service-cross to the airport (Soekarno-Hatta, Juanda-Surabaya, Kualanamu-Medan and
Minangkabau-Padang). Data has been collected questionnaires consisting of characteristic
data of passengers, passenger travel data and stated preference airport train data. The
following table shows the number and location of sampling survey questionnaire.
Table 2 Number of Secondary Data Sample
No
Information
Respondents
Total Sample
a. Passenger Departure
b. Passanger Arrival
Survey Location
Moda
Bus Damri
Taxi
Cars
Passenger departure and arrival, the region of origin / destination trip from
Jakarta
87 Respondent
66 Respondent
1. Soekarno-Hatta Airport
2. Bus Damri Terminal
a. Gambir Station
b. Blok M
42 Respondent
50 Respondent
Soekarno-Hatta
Airport
41 Respondent
48 Respondent
Soekarno-Hatta
Airport
Primary Data Collection

Primary data in this study obtained through techniques Stated Preference (SP). The
technique is done with a combination of two basic methods, namely the questionnaire
survey and interview survey. The data collection using questionnaires distributed by
surveyors, directly to the respondents and surveyors also acts as the interviewer. So that
surveyors can provide a picture of the overall study and further clarify the intent of the
questions in the questionnaire. Its can assist respondents in completing questionnaires
properly. The survey was conducted by taking a sample of 75 samples per segment, which
205
segment is determined based on the purpose of the trip of the respondents, namely business
and non-business. So the survey of primary data collection is done by taking a sample of
450 respondents. The following table shows the number and location of sampling surveys.
Table 3 Number of Primer Data Sample
No.
Moda
Number of Sample
Bus Damri
139 Respondent
2
3
Taxi
Cars
141 Respondent
122 Respondent
Survey Location
1. Bus Damri Terminal
a. Gambir Station
b. Blok-M
2. Soekarno-Hatta Airport
Soekarno-Hatta Airport
Soekarno-Hatta Airport
RESULT AND ANALYSIS

Based on the relationship between the difference fare value of the airport train and the
existing modes (car, taxi and bus DAMRI) with a choice probability between the two
modes, its will know the value of ATP-WTP airport train users. Determination of ATP and
WTP used demand theory approach. Where a range of values of ATP are at the airport
train election probability of 0.5 to 0.9. While the WTP values are at the airport train
election probability of 0.5. At this probability, the possibility to choose the airport train
service is the same as the existing mode.
ATP-WTP Value of Passenger Departures
In the ATP-WTP values of passenger departure used two sets of data as follows.
First Data
Mode choice modelling for the first data use scenarios with attributes fares, travel time,
delay tolerance, level of service and headway. ATP-WTP values of passenger departure for
the first data were analyzed using logit-binomial-difference and logit-binomial-ratio
models. The following figure shows a diagram WTP for each model.
Rp. 200.000
Rp. 150.000
Tarif Taksi = Rp. 130.000
Rp. 100.000
WTP(Taksi) = Rp. 72.381
WTP(Mobil) = Rp. 72.000
WTP(Bus Damri) = Rp. 69.391
100.000Rp. 50.000
Tarif KA Bandara = Rp. 100.000**

Tarif KA Bandara = Rp. 75.000*
Tarif Bus Damri = Rp. 30.000

Biaya Mobil = Rp. 18.000
Figure 2 Diagram of WTP using Logit-Binomial Model-Difference
206
Rp. 200.000
Rp. 150.000
Rp. 100.000

Rp. 50.000
Figure 3 Diagram of WTP using Logit-Binomial Model-Ratio

Second Data
Mode choice modelling for the second data use scenarios with attributes fares, travel time,
headway and walking time. ATP-WTP values of passenger departure for the first data were
analyzed using logit-binomial-difference and logit-binomial-ratio models. The following
figure shows a diagram WTP for each model.
Rp. 200.000
Rp. 150.000

Rp. 100.000

Rp. 50.000

207
Rp. 200.000
Rp. 150.000
Rp. 100.000


Rp. 50.000

ATP-WTP Value of Passenger Arrival

This mode choice modelling use scenarios with attributes fares, travel time, delay
tolerance, level of service and headway. ATP-WTP values of passenger arrival for the first
data were analyzed using logit-binomial-difference and logit-binomial-ratio models. The
following figure shows a diagram WTP for each model.
Rp. 200.000
Rp. 150.000
Rp.

Rp. 50.000
208
Rp. 200.000
Rp. 150.000
Rp. 100.000

Rp. 50.000

* Lower Indication Airport Train Fares (Source: www.keretaekspressoetta.com)
** Upper Indications Airport Train Fares (Source: www.keretaekspressoetta.com)
CONCLUSION
Based on study results of Ability to Pay (ATP) and Willingness to Pay (WTP) for
Soekarno-Hatta International Airport Train, it can be some conclusions as follows:
1. In the analysis of ATP-WTP values of passenger departures can be seen that the value
of WTP Damri bus users is smaller than the value of WTP taxis and cars users. This
means that Damri bus users have willingness to pay train fare is lower than the taxis and
cars users.
2. As for the ATP-WTP value of passenger arrivals, it is known that WTP values Damri
bus users is also smaller than the value of WTP taxis and cars users. This means that
Damri bus users have willingness to pay train fare is lower than the taxis and cars users.
2. When compared to the value of WTP between passenger departure and arrival, it is
known that the WTP value of passenger departure is greater than the passenger arrival.
Difference value indicates the passenger departure needs greater certainty time given by
the airport train to the airport so that they are willing to pay more.
3. Of the two data sets were analyzed on a passenger's departure, it appears that the WTP
value from the analysis of the two data are different. It can be concluded that the value
of WTP is influenced by attributes of interest. Differences in terms of attributes that can
give different WTP values.
4. In the ATP-WTP value analysis based on the characteristics of respondents travel
purpose, can be known the value of WTP business respondent greater than non-business
respondents. This can be due to business travel costs normally borne by the respondent
company / institution where the respondent worked. Thus, the business respondents tend
to consider the certainty of time and travel speeds given by airport train.
5. From the graph of sensitivity attribute fare, it can be seen the negative slope of the line,
which states that the greater fares (KA Airport - Moda Existing) will reduce the
probability of selecting the airport train.
209
6. Based on the analysis of elasticity, for the third mode choice models known that the
most sensitive attributes that affect the probability of mode choice is the attribute fare.
7. If the airport train fares are set based on the indication airport train fare (Rp. 75.000100.000) then the value of WTP under the indication fares are require subsidies to
achieve a 50% probability of airport train.
REFERENCES
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Pusat Statistik: DKI Jakarta.
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Application To Travel Demand, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press.
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Wissenschaft.
Breidert C., Hahsler M., Reutterer T. (2006), A Review of Methods For Measuring
Willingness-to-Pay, Preprint to appear in Innovative Marketing.
Center for International Economics (2001), Review of Willingness to Pay Methodologies,
Canberra & Sydney.
Hensher, David A., and Lester W.J. (1981), Applied Discrete-Choice Modelling, Halsted
Press, John Wiley & Sons, Inc, New York.
Joewono, Tri Basuki (2009), Exploring the Willingness and Ability to Pay for Paratransit
in Bandung, Indonesia, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 12, No.2.
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Kementerian Perhubungan Republik Indonesia (2011), Peraturan Menteri Perhubungan
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Antara Moda Kereta Api dan Bus : Studi Kasus Rute Bandung Jakarta, Tesis
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Pay Penumpang, Tesis Magister, Rekayasa Transportasi, Institut Teknologi
Bandung.
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Wiley & Sons.
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Website : www.keretaekspressoetta.com (diakses April 2015)
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The 18th FSTPT International Symposium, Unila, Bandar Lampung, August 28th, 2015

ANALYSIS OF ABILITY TO PAY (ATP) AND

Sony Sulaksono Wibowo

Figure 1 Demand Curve

The result of the actual behaviour

Only existing alternatives

Expression under the hypothetical situation

Primary Data Collection

RESULT AND ANALYSIS

Tarif KA Bandara = Rp. 100.000**

Tarif Bus Damri = Rp. 30.000

Figure 2 Diagram of WTP using Logit-Binomial Model-Difference

Tarif KA Bandara = Rp. 100.000**

Figure 3 Diagram of WTP using Logit-Binomial Model-Ratio

Tarif Taksi = Rp. 130.000

WTP(Bus Damri) = Rp. 75.000

Tarif KA Bandara = Rp. 100.000**

Tarif Bus Damri = Rp. 40.000

Figure 4 Diagram of WTP using Logit-Binomial Model-Difference

WTP(Taksi) = Rp. 154.108

WTP(Mobil) = Rp. 101.600

Tarif KA Bandara = Rp. 100.000**

WTP(Bus Damri) = Rp. 65.650

Tarif Bus Damri = Rp. 40.000

Figure 5 Diagram of WTP using Logit-Binomial Model-Ratio

ATP-WTP Value of Passenger Arrival

Tarif KA Bandara = Rp. 75.000*

Figure 6 Diagram of WTP using Logit-Binomial Model-Difference

Tarif KA Bandara = Rp. 100.000**

Figure 7 Diagram of WTP using Logit-Binomial Model-Ratio

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