CIF SCHEME NO 26

SEGREGATED M5 CROSSING

FULL BUSINESS CASE

APPENDIX B: QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

Work Package 1: New Landmark Pedestrian / Cycle Bridge to reconnect Gypsy Hill Lane and Black Horse Lane over M5 Motorway
Estimate Base: Year 2008, Quarter 4
Series
100
200
400
500
600
1100
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2300
2400
3000

Description

Total Risk Level

Preliminaries
Site Clearance
Restraint Systems
Drainage
Earthworks
Kerbs / Footways
Structural Concrete
Steelwork for structures
Protection of Steelwork
Waterproofing
Bearings
Bridge expansion Joints
Special Structures
Landscaping

493,000
10,000
206,000
6,000
305,000
22,000
197,000
1,498,000
107,000
32,000
2,000
5,000
59,000
20,000

Total

2,962,000

L
L
H
H
H
L
H
H
H
L
L
L
H
L

Cost

Notes

2.5
2.5
15
15
15
2.5
15
15
15
2.5
2.5
2.5
15
2.5

12,325
250
30,900
900
45,750
550
29,550
224,700
16,050
800
50
125
8,850
500

Allowance for preliminary costs considered adequate

Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
Risks associated with specification of finishing requirements
Risks associated with ground conditions / detailed design development
Risks associated with ground conditions / detailed design development
Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
Risks associated with ground conditions / detailed design development
Risks associated with specification of finishing requirements
Risks associated with specification of finishing requirements
Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
Risks associated with detailed design development
Allowance for landscaping considered adequate

371,300

Appendix B Quantitative Risk Assessment.xls

CIF SCHEME NO 26
SEGREGATED M5 CROSSING

FULL BUSINESS CASE

Work Package 2: Pedestrian and Cycle Improvements to Gypsy Hill Lane from Cumberland Ave / Hollow Lane Junction to the new Landmark Pedestrian / Cycle Bridge
Estimate Base: Year 2008, Quarter 4
Series
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1100
1200
1300
1400-1500
1600-2500
2700
2700
2700
3000

Description
Preliminaries
Site Clearance
Fencing and Environmental Barriers
Road Restraint Systems (Vehicle & Pedestrian)
Drainage
Earthworks
Road Pavements
Kerbs, Footways, & Paved Areas
Traffic Signs and Road Markings
Road Lighting Columns and Brackets
Electrical Work and Communications
Structures
Statutory Undertakers Works
Noise Insulation Works
Accommodation Works
Landscape and Ecology
Other Costs; Testing
Total

Total Risk Level

35,000
13,000
2,000
0
13,000
37,000
47,000
12,000
2,000
3,000
1,000
76,000
15,000
0
0
10,000
7,500
273,500

L
M
L

2.5
5
2.5

H
H
M
L
L
L
H
H
H

15
15
5
5
2.5
2.5
15
15
15

H
L

15
2.5

Cost

Notes

875 Allowance for preliminary costs considered adequate

650 Risks associated with measure of tree / shrub clearance, survey to be undertaken
50 Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
1,950
5,550
2,350
600
50
75
150
11,400
2,250

Risks associated with ground conditions / detailed design development

Risks associated with ground conditions / detailed design development
Risk of inflation associated with the cost of oil
Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
Risk associated with location of LV supply
Risks associated with ground conditions / detailed design development
Risks associated with Statutory Undertakers costs and unidentified services

1,500 Risks associated with ecological surveys and environmental mitigation measures
188 Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
27,638

Appendix B Quantitative Risk Assessment.xls

CIF SCHEME NO 26
SEGREGATED M5 CROSSING

FULL BUSINESS CASE

Work Package 3: Tithebarn lane Bridge Carriageway Widening Works

Estimate Base: Year 2008, Quarter 4
Series
100
200
400
500
600
1100
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2300
2400
2700
3000

Description

Total Risk Level

Preliminaries
Site Clearance
Restraint Systems
Drainage
Earthworks
Kerbs / Footways
Structural Concrete
Steelwork for structures
Protection of Steelwork
Waterproofing
Bearings
Bridge expansion Joints
Special Structures
Statutory Undertakers Works
Landscaping

10,000
2,000
0
3,000
2,000
5,000
0
0
0
0
0
27,200
0
0
0

Total

49,200

Cost

Notes

L
L

2.5
2.5

250 Allowance for preliminary costs considered adequate

50 Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low

L
L
L

2.5
2.5
2.5

75 Allowance for preliminary costs considered adequate

50 Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
125 Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low

1,360 Risks associated with Highway Authority requirements

15

5,000 Risk associated with dirverting / protecting unidentified service

6,910

Appendix B Quantitative Risk Assessment.xls

CIF SCHEME NO 26
SEGREGATED M5 CROSSING

FULL BUSINESS CASE

Works Package 4: Exeter Science Park Bus Link Road and Tithebarn Lane Carriageway Widening Works
Estimate Base: Year 2008, Quarter 4
Series
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1100
1200
1300
1400-1500
1600-2500
2700
2700
2700
300

Description

Total Risk Level

Preliminaries
Site Clearance
Fencing and Environmental Barriers
Road Restraint Systems (Vehicle & Pedestrian)
Drainage
Earthworks
Road Pavements
Kerbs, Footways, & Paved Areas
Traffic Signs and Road Markings
Road Lighting Columns and Brackets
Electrical Work and Communications
Structures
Statutory Undertakers Works
Noise Insulation Works
Accommodation Works
Landscape and Ecology
Other Costs; Testing

76,000
6,000
20,000
0
93,000
151,000
159,000
23,000
5,000
3,000
8,000
0
25,000
0
0
0
12,000

Total

581,000

L
L
L

2.5
2.5
2.5

H
H
M
L
L
L
H

15
15
5
2.5
2.5
2.5
15

15

2.5

Cost

Notes
1,900 Allowance for preliminary costs considered adequate
150 Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
500 Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
13,950
22,650
7,950
575
125
75
1,200

Risks associated with ground conditions / detailed design development

Risks associated with ground conditions / detailed design development
Risk of inflation associated with the cost of oil
Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
Risk associated with location of HV / LV supply

3,750 Risks associated with Statutory Undertakers costs and unidentified services

300 Estimate is based on measure and value therefore risk is considered to be low
53,125

Appendix B Quantitative Risk Assessment.xls