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College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China
Shanghai Agricultural Science and Technology Service Center, Shanghai 200335, China
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 31 December 2010
Received in revised form 3 May 2011
Accepted 4 May 2011
Available online 31 May 2011
Keywords:
Fertilizer nitrogen use
Rice production
Economically optimum
Ecologically optimum
Environment
China
a b s t r a c t
China consumes 32% of the worlds total synthetic fertilizer nitrogen (N). Overuse of fertilizer N has
become widespread, resulting in severe environmental problems. Based on a set of statistical models, we
quantied the optimum N rates for rice production in terms of economic and ecological benets. Model
tting results suggested that the dependence of rice yield, N uptake and N loss on fertilizer N application
rates can be well determined by a quadratic polynomial function, a logistic function and a power function,
respectively. Using these functions, the economically optimum and ecologically optimum N rates in
south-eastern China were estimated to be 180285 kg ha1 and 90150 kg ha1 , respectively, depending
on rice subspecies, varieties and cropping systems. A case study in Jiangsu Province, where single rice
with conventional japonica varieties is dominated, suggested that current N rates (390 kg ha1 ) could be
cut by 26% and 61% when the economically and ecologically optimum N rates, respectively, are adopted,
saving 189 103 and 442 103 metric tons per year, respectively. Cutting one-third of the N use would
not reduce rice yield but is expected to mitigate negative environmental impact in this province.
2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
China has the second-largest area of rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation and the highest rice production in the world, accounting for
19% of the worlds rice area and contributing 29% of the worlds
rice production (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations, 2010). Substantial growth in the use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer since the 1970s has signicantly increased yield
(National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2009), whereas overuse of N
has become widespread (Huang and Tang, 2010; Peng et al., 2010).
As the largest consumer of synthetic N in the world, China accounts
for 32% of the worlds total consumption, and approximately 18%
of the synthetic N is applied to rice paddies (Heffer, 2009).
Rice yield per-hectare in China is currently 50% higher than the
global average (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations, 2010), whereas synthetic N fertilizer used in rice cultivation (190 kg ha1 ) is 90% greater than the world average (Heffer,
2009). The areas in which N usage exceeded 250 kg ha1 and
300 kg ha1 , respectively, accounted for 30% and 13% of the land
cultivated rice in the late 1990s/early 2000s. This pattern of usage
196
(1)
a
c
1 + (N/b)
(2)
where a, b and c are empirical coefcients. NU refers to fertilizer N uptake by rice plants, including those aboveground and
root biomass over a growing season. We determined the fertilizer N uptake in aboveground biomass (NU abv , kg ha1 ) by
using the N-difference method (Cassman et al., 1998, 2002), i.e.,
NU abv = NU abv N NU abv N0 . NU abv N and NU abv N0 are the amounts
of N in aboveground biomass at harvest under various fertilizer N
application rates and zero-N control, respectively. Using the data
of 15 N-labelled fertilizer experiments (Ai et al., 2003; Tian et al.,
2009), fertilizer N in root biomass at harvest was estimated to be
2.8 0.9% (mean SD, n = 11) of the fertilizer N applied. The amount
of fertilizer N in root biomass was then computed by multiplying
0.028 by fertilizer N rate.
2.3.3. Fertilizer N loss model
Fertilizer N loss (NL , kg ha1 ) was simulated by a power function
of fertilizer N rate as
NL = B0 NB1
(3)
197
Fig. 1. Rice cultivation and spatial distribution of experimental sites in south-eastern China. The left-hand map shows the research area, where the boundaries of provinces
are marked by thick lines. The symbols in the right-hand map denote the sites of eld experiments (see details in Appendix A), including indica varieties in the double
rice-based cropping systems (), and indica varieties () and japonica varieties in the single rice-based cropping systems (+). Conventional and hybrid varieties are cultivated
in this region. Abbreviations of provinces: AH, Anhui; FJ, Fujian; GD, Guangdong; GX, Guangxi; HB, Hubei; HN, Hunan; JS, Jiangsu; JX, Jiangxi; SH, Shanghai; ZJ, Zhejiang.
(4)
PN /PY
2
(5)
dN
b
N c1
1+
N c 2
b
1+
SPSS version 15.0 (SPSS Inc., 2007) and Origin version 7.5
(OriginLab Co., 2003) were employed to determine model coefcients [Eqs. (13)] by using the data extracted from the literature
(Appendix A) and to perform statistical analysis. The values
of NECL in Eq. (8) were computed using Scilab version 5.2.0
(http://www.scilab.org/).
3. Results
3.1. Yield response to N rate
Rice yield derived from fertilizer N use can be well quantied
by the quadratic function [Eq. (1)] for each of the rice categories
(Fig. 2). Model tting to the observed data results in R2 values of
0.6150.727 at the 0.001 probability level (Table 1).
Equating the rst derivative of yield functions (i.e., marginal
yield) [Eq. (1)] to zero, we obtained the fertilizer N rates required
to approach the maximum grain yield. These rates were estimated
to be 227, 213, 261, 223 and 357 kg ha1 for the rice categories
of conI-D, hyI-D, conI-S, hyI-S and J-S, respectively, corresponding to the fertilizer N-derived yields of 1.90 0.99 (estimate 95%
condence interval), 2.09 1.20, 1.47 0.94, 2.30 1.23 and
2.83 1.50 ton ha1 . Note that the grain yield per unit N use in
hybrid indica was generally higher than in conventional indica. In
the double rice-based cropping systems, the model gave the values
of 9.8 kg yield per kg N in hybrid indica (hyI-D) and 8.4 kg yield per
kg N in conventional indica (conI-D). In the single rice-based cropping systems, the corresponding values were 10.3 kg yield per kg
N in hybrid indica (hyI-S) and 5.6 kg yield per kg N in conventional
indica (conI-S). These results indicate higher N efciency in hybrids
than in conventional varieties.
3.2. Response of fertilizer N uptake and loss to N rate
dNL
= B0 B1 NB1 1
dN
N c1
ac
(6)
(7)
N c 2
b
= B0 B1 NB1 1
(8)
198
Table 1
Parameters of the nonlinear relationship between N-derived rice yield (YN , kg ha1 ) and N rate (N, kg ha1 ).
YN = N + N2
Rice category
Statistical signicant
16.74 (1.05)a
19.55 (1.07)
11.27 (2.22)
20.56 (1.14)
15.86 (1.40)
conI-D
hyI-D
conI-S
hyI-S
J-S
a
***
R2
53
118
16
98
98
0.727***
0.673***
0.636***
0.615***
0.687***
Table 2
Parameters of the nonlinear relationship between fertilizer N uptake (NU , kg ha1 ) and N rate (N, kg ha1 ).
Rice category
conI-D
hyI-D
conI-S
hyI-S
J-S
a
***
NU = a
a
1+(N/b)c
Statistical signicant
R2
79.46 ( 9.77)a
124.42 (35.64)
141.10 (26.47)
164.67 (25.16)
203.06 (28.14)
95.79 (12.69)
122.24 (47.66)
170.30 (38.22)
133.65 (29.26)
233.06 (41.50)
2.28 (0.65)
1.58 (0.59)
1.93 (0.48)
1.55 (0.32)
1.65 (0.21)
42
60
15
76
115
0.884***
0.901***
0.983***
0.910***
0.954***
199
Table 3
Parameters of the nonlinear relationship between N loss (NL , kg ha1 ) and N rate (N, kg ha1 ).
NL = B0 NB1
Rice category
conI-D
hyI-D
conI-S
hyI-S
J-S
a
***
Statistical signicant
B0
B1
R2
1.56 (0.13)
2.17 (0.26)
1.39 (0.08)
1.89 (0.15)
1.41 (0.03)
29
41
12
52
97
0.832***
0.635***
0.970***
0.751***
0.949***
Table 4
Estimated economically optimum and ecologically optimum N rates (N), N losses (NL ) and grain yield (YN , Y).
Rice category
conI-D
hyI-D
conI-S
hyI-S
J-S
a
b
c
Y0 a (ton ha1 )
4.28 (0.66)
5.15 (0.83)
6.31 (0.43)
6.71 (0.85)
6.15 (0.81)
Economically optimum
Ecologically optimum
N (kg ha1 )
NL (kg ha1 )
YN b (ton ha1 )
Yc (ton ha1 )
N (kg ha1 )
NL (kg ha1 )
YN b (ton ha1 )
Yc (ton ha1 )
181
177
183
187
286
82
61
76
49
132
1.82
2.03
1.34
2.24
2.72
6.10
7.18
7.65
8.95
8.87
94
112
123
152
150
30
22
44
33
53
1.25
1.62
1.06
2.06
1.88
5.53
6.77
7.37
8.77
8.03
Average of the grain yield without N applied in eld experiments (Appendix A). Values in parentheses are standard deviations.
Fertilizer N-derived grain yield.
Harvested grain yield.
Table 5
Estimated N loss, N cut and yield with optimum N rates in Jiangsu Province.
Item
(kg ha
Average over 20042008
Economically optimum
Ecologically optimum
387a
286
150
7.96b
7.66
6.82
N cutc
N loss
202
132
53
1 d
(%)
65
26
(kg ha
101
237
Yield reductionc
)
(%)
(ton ha1 )
(%)
26
61
0.30
1.14
3.8
14.3
a
The N rate includes synthetic and complex fertilizers N (National Development and Reform Commission, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009), and manure N (Zou et al., 2009).
We assumed a nitrogen fraction of 35% in the complex fertilizers (International Fertilizer Industry Association, http://www.fertilizer.org/).
b
Data come from Statistical Yearbook of Jiangsu Province (Statistics Bureau of Jiangsu Province, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009).
c
Relative to the average over 20042008.
d
Estimated using Eq. (3).
200
Fig. 2. Model tting (blue lines) of fertilizer N-derived grain yield vs. N rates with
95% condence intervals (dark lines) for 5 rice categories. (a) conI-D; (b) hyI-D; (c)
conI-S; (d) hyI-S; (e) J-S. The category abbreviations: con, conventional variety; hy,
hybrid variety; I, indica rice; J, japonica rice; D, double rice-based cropping systems;
S, single rice-based cropping systems. (For interpretation of the references to color
in this gure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of the article.)
Fig. 3. Model tting of N uptake (dark lines) and N loss (blue lines) vs. N rates. (a)
conI-D; (b) hyI-D; (c) conI-S; (d) hyI-S; (e) J-S.
PN +
NECL =
n
PECL,i
i=1
201
/PY
(9)
where PECL,i represents the ecological cost in the ith category caused
by the synthetic N fertilizer application. However, we simply do not
know how to quantify the ecological cost for a given category in
China, such as N2 O emission (IPCC, 2007), eutrophication of water
bodies (Guo, 2007), soil acidication (Guo et al., 2010) and public
health (Lin et al., 2000; Zhang et al., 2003).
Based on the concept of willingness to pay (WTP) for human
life or health, for ecosystem services and greenhouse gas emission
reduction, Brink and Grinsven (2011) estimated that excess nitrogen in the environment costs the European Union (EU) between
D 70 billion (US$100 billion) and D 320 billion per year, of which
about 75% is related to health damage and air pollution. Similar to
Eq. (9), Brink and Grinsven (2011) suggested that the optimal level
of N-mitigation for society could be reached when the marginal
cost of mitigation is equal to the marginal benet of reduced environmental impacts. They estimated that the social optimal N-rate
was between 35 and 90 kg ha1 lower than the farm (private) optimal N-rate for winter wheat and oilseed rape (Brink and Grinsven,
2011). Our estimates suggested that the ecological optimal N-rate
was between 35 and 136 kg ha1 lower than the economical optimal N-rate (Table 4). This difference corresponds well to Brink and
Grinsven (2011) and results by Brentrup et al. (2004) who found a
difference of 50100 kg ha1 by applying the life cycle assessment
(LCA) to winter wheat in the UK. It is hoped that the ecologically
optimum N rate could be accurately determined when the ecological costs of N application (PECL,i in Eq. (9)) are well quantied in
China.
Fertilizer N is lost due to gaseous emission, surface runoff and
leaching. Much of this loss is as the gaseous N, varying from 20%
to 50% of the total N input in irrigated rice cultivation in China
(Zhu, 1997; Bao et al., 2006; Ju et al., 2009). Of increasing concern
is N2 O due to its potent impact on global warming. The fertilizer N-induced direct N2 O emissions from rice cultivation in China
increased with an average rate of 6.7 Gg N2 ON per decade over the
period 1950s1990s (Zou et al., 2009). On a national scale, improving nitrogen use efciency (NUE) to 45% is expected to reduce
fertilizer N-induced direct N2 O emission from rice cultivation by
711 Gg N2 O-N per year (Huang and Tang, 2010). Under 45% NUE,
N rates in the rice area (Fig. 1) were estimated to range from 85 to
185 kg ha1 with an average of 140 kg ha1 using Huang and Tang
(2010), which is close to the ecologically optimum N rates in Table 4.
Agricultural runoff and leaching diminish human well-being
and increase risk to public health. An accumulation of nutrient-rich
sewage and agricultural runoff in Taihu, Chinas third-largest lake,
resulted in eutrophication and harmful algal blooms in 2007, leading to a drinking water crisis (Guo, 2007). Nitrate levels in ground
and drinking water are often high in China (Zhang et al., 1996; Chen
et al., 2005; Li et al., 2007) and are generally correlated with the rate
of use of nitrogen fertilizer (Zhang et al., 2003; Li et al., 2007; Song
et al., 2009; Zhao et al., 2010a). Public health agencies have long recognized that excessive nitrate in water can sometimes lead to a fatal
condition in infants (Knobeloch et al., 2000). Nitrosamines, which
are produced from nitrites and associated with various human cancers (Follett and Follett, 2001), have also been observed in drinking
water samples in Chinas rice region (Lin et al., 2000). Lin et al.
(2000) and Zhang et al. (2003) reported that the mortality of can-
202
Table 6
Nitrogen rate and rice yield under different practices of N fertilization.
N management
Farmers practice
SSNMa
195
133
7.08
7.47
Farmers practice
KONMb
300
200
8.01
8.27
Imbalanced fertilization
Balanced fertilization
150
150
6.57
7.07
a
b
Reference
107
26
Ju et al. (2009)
135
Li et al. (2010)
Site-specic N management.
Knowledge-based optimum N management.
considerable progress in devising improved N management practices to limit N overuse (Table 6), but uptake by farmers has been
limited by technical, institutional and socio-economic factors. For
example, many young farmers now leave the country side for construction or factory jobs in the city after sowing their elds. That
means they do not have time to apply nitrogen in multiple doses.
Other farmers are simply unwilling to risk cutting back fertilizer
use for fear of reducing crop yield (Hvistendahl, 2010). Another reason some farmers overuse N fertilizer is because they simply lack
knowledge about nutrient management and environment protection.
Reducing N fertilizer use is urgent in order to mitigate the risk of
environmental pollution and human health threats in China. This
could be accomplished through stringent policies of fertilizer regulation, recommendations of improved N management practices for
the farmers, training and education of farmers on nutrient management, and public awareness of environment protection. It is hoped
that the N-induced negative environmental impact could be greatly
mitigated if the economically or ecologically optimum N rates are
adopted.
5. Conclusion
By balancing the marginal costs and the marginal benets
derived from a set of statistical models of rice yield, fertilizer N
uptake and loss, we estimated that the economically optimum and
ecologically optimum N rates for rice production in south-eastern
China are 180285 kg ha1 and 90150 kg ha1 , corresponding to
rice yields of 6.18.9 ton ha1 and 5.58.8 ton ha1 , respectively. In
Jiangsu Province, switching from current N rates to economically
optimum and ecologically optimum N rates allows saving 189 103
and 442 103 metric tons of N use per year, and reducing N loss by
35% and 74%, respectively. Cutting one-third of the current N use
would be feasible in this province.
Acknowledgements
This work was jointly supported by the CAS Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA05020200) and the
National Key Basic Research Development Foundation (Grant
No. 2010CB950604). We thank Prof. Ju XT at the China Agricultural University for providing the model of N retention.
Thanks are also dedicated to two anonymous reviewers who provided helpful comments that led to the improvement of this
paper.
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