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webb-site.com/articles/twooptions.asp
HK's civic freedoms and lack of democracy are an incompatible, unsustainable combination, which is why it is alone
globally in that quadrant of the grid of democracy and civic freedoms. Either we move to a democratic open society,
or we join mainland China and others with neither civic freedoms nor democracy. The status quo, with recurrent
protests against an illegitimate and paralysed government, is not a viable option.
The number of protesters currently on the ground in Admiralty may be dwindling through fatigue, but the reason they
are protesting has not gone away. In a survey of HK citizens commissioned by SCMP and carried out by the
University of HK's Public Opinion Program before the protests began, 48% said legislators should veto the
restrictive reform proposal handed down by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPCSC),
while only 39% said they should take what they can get and "pocket" it.
So of those who expressed a view, 48/87 or 55% wanted a veto. They would rather be stuck with the old system in
the hope of a better deal later. And if you had asked those who were in favour of "pocketing" the plan whether they
thought this was true universal suffrage, undoubtedly some of them would say no. A clear majority of those citizens
who have an opinion want genuine choice, not a choice between 2 or 3 candidates chosen for them by a majority of
a rigged committee.
HK is probably the only place in the world that seeks to combine the core civic freedoms of speech, assembly and
the media with an authoritarian unelected Government. That's because the combination is unsustainable. Take a
look at this table.
Civic
freedoms
No civic
freedoms
Democracy
No democracy
HK
None
There are plenty of regimes (mainland China included) that, for decades at a time, have been able to combine an
absence of civic freedoms with a lack of democracy until the economics fail. In China's case, they trashed the
economy for 30 years from 1949 until the people could take no more, and then spent the last 35 years partially
rebuilding it with the partial introduction of free market principles (no miracle there, just recovery).
Then there are open democracies that have been politically stable for centuries, because they can hold their leaders
accountable for economic failure, and indeed they have maintained stability by broadening the electoral franchise
and devolving power.
But in the other two quadrants, there are no examples of sustainably combining civic freedoms with authoritarian
rule, nor are there any true democracies which sustainably crush freedoms of speech and the media, because the
people won't re-elect leaders who do that.
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resignation after the tear gas and riot police were deployed the previous Sunday, the Chief Executive appointed the
Chief Secretary to meet with the protesters and discuss constitutional development. But he said:
"We should work within the framework of the decision of the NPCSC and so on, so forth. Only do we
follow the provisions of the Basic Law and the decisions of the NPCSC can we have universal
suffrage in 2017."
Now to recap, on 6-Apr-2004 during the debate over whether we could have universal suffrage in 2007, the NPCSC
issued an interpretation of the Basic Law laying out the "five-step method" for future reforms. It said:
The Chief Executive of the HKSAR shall make a report to the NPCSC as regards whether there is a need to
make an amendment;
The NPCSC shall, in accordance with the provisions of Article 45 of the Basic Law make a determination in
light of the actual situation in the HKSAR and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly
progress;
The bill on the amendment shall be introduced by the HKSAR Government into the Legislative Council
(where it requires a two-thirds majority to pass);
The Chief Executive shall then approve (or reject) the amendent;
Finally the NPCSC shall approve (or reject) the amendment.
Article 45 of the Basic Law says in relevant part:
"The method for selecting the Chief Executive shall be specified in the light of the actual situation
in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and
orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage upon
nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic
procedures."
But when you read the CE's report to the NPCSC issued on 15-Jul-2014, it is quite evident that the current "actual
situation in HK" has either changed since then, or he failed to get it right the first time. In fact, the report was so
indecisive as to offer no advice to the NPCSC at all, even if they were seeking it, and Beijing came down hard with
its own decision.
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and elected.
The recommendation does not need to go outside the Basic Law. It can continue to use a nominating committee
rather than direct civic nomination, but it does need to contain a reasonable threshold for any candidate to be
nominated by the 1200-member committee, such as the 12.5% used in 2012 and not the 50% majority proposed by
the NPCSC in its latest decision. That's not nomination, that's pre-election.
The Chief Executive and Beijing have one last chance to take the moral high ground and regain the confidence of
the HK people. By the CE making a fresh report, and the NPCSC making a fresh decision, they can show that the
"two systems" model is alive and well, and that, just as HK is a laboratory for RMB internationalisation, it will be a
laboratory for democratisation, with the rest of China to follow when it is ready.
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well.
So HK really only has 2 choices - either step up to democracy and join the top-left quadrant, or remove civic
freedoms and join China in the bottom-right quadrant. Staying where we are, with recurrent protests and an
illegitimate government, is not a sustainable choice.
Sorry to drone on
Finally we could not end this article without including the amazing Youtube video by Nero Chan, an amateur drone
operator in HK, which gives you some idea of the scale of the peaceful protests last Tuesday, the third night of the
protests.
Webb-site.com, 2014
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