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COMPARISON OF ELECTRICITY

GENERATION COST OF NPP WITH


ALTERNATES IN PAKISTAN

IAEA INPRO dialogue forum 8 toward nuclear energy system


sustainability: economics, resource availability and institutional
arrangements
Vienna, Austria
August 26-29, 2014

Muhammad Saleemullah, Applied Systems Analysis Division,


Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission

Contents
2

Some basic facts


Current status

Energy situation
Electricity situation
Nuclear power status

Peak demand forecast


Energy sources for power generation
Comparison of alternate options

Pakistan: Basic Facts 2013


3

Pakistan is the sixth most populous country of the world


having about 183 million population (Urban share: 37%)
Population growth : 2.0% per year
GDP : 223,378 Million US dollar
GDP growth : 3.7% per year
Per capita income : 1,340 US dollar
Total primary energy supply: 64.6 MTOE
Per capita energy supply : 0.35 TOE
Electricity generation : 98,894 GWh
Per capita electricity consumption: 420 kWh

Installed Capacity May 2014


4

Total: 25,023 MW

Sources: i) State of Industry Report 2013, NEPRA


ii) Newspaper information.

Electricity Generation Mix 2013


5

Total: 98.9 TWh

Source: State of Industry Report 2013, NEPRA

Nuclear Power (Operational)


6

KANUPP

C-1

C-2

Contractor

CGE (Canada)

CNNC (China)

CNNC (China)

Capacity (Gross)

137/100 MW

325 MW

325 MW

Start of Construction

Aug 1966

Aug 1993

Dec 2005

Commercial Operation

Dec 1972

Sep 2000

May 2011

Nuclear Power (Under Construction)


7

Pressurized Water Reactors, 2x340 MW

Contractor

C-3

C-4

CNNC (China)

CNNC (China)

Contract Signing

20 Nov 2008

20 Nov 2008

Contract Effective Date

31 Mar 2010

31 Mar 2010

Groundbreaking

5 Aug 2010

1 Apr 2011

First Concrete Pouring

4 Mar 2011

18 Dec 2011

IAEA Safeguards Approval

8 Mar 2011

8 Mar 2011

Dec 2016

Oct 2017

Commercial Operation
(as per contract)

Peak Demand Forecast (Regression Analysis 2011)


8

(MW)
Fiscal Year

Low

Medium

High

2009-10

20,223

20,223

20,223

2014-15

27,867

29,414

31,733

2019-20

38,739

45,398

50,363

2024-25

54,694

68,736

79,021

2029-30

74,525

97,524

117,110

2034-35

100,510

134,814

169,373

Source:

Electricity Demand Forecast based on Regression Analysis (Period 2011 to 2035), Office of
G.M. Planning Power NTDC/PEPCO WAPDA House Lahore, February 2011

Options available for Power Generation


9

Hydro (Potential =55,000 MW; Already exploited =7,500 MW)

Gas-fired (Gas insufficient to meet current requirements)

Nuclear (Target of 8,800 MW installed capacity by 2030)

Wind (Potential =~50,000 MW)

Solar (Potential high; techno-economic issues)

Oil-fired (Small reserves; expensive option)

Coal (Resource ~ 186 billion tonnes; 98% of the resource is lignite


with more than 40% moisture)

Main Financial Assumptions for Future Plants


(Country Specific)
10

Discount Rate (State Bank of Pakistans Discount Rate)

= 10%

Interest Rate Local Loan (SBP rate + 2% spread)

= 12.0%

Return on Equity (Offered to Thermal Plants)

= 16%

Debt Equity Ratio

= 80 : 20

Export Credit
(at 3.90% p.a., CIRR for NPPs)

= 85% of
Contractor FE Cost

Average Electricity Sale Price (2012-13)

= Cents 12.0/kWh

(Different tariff for different electricity consumers. Sale price is lower than
generation cost different is provides by the Government as subsidy)
Average Electricity Generation Cost IPPs (2012-13) = Cents 14.9/kWh
Average Electricity Generation Cost Thermal Plants = Cents13.9/kWh
(2012-13)
Interest during Construction (IDC)

= Capitalized
10

Future Nuclear Power Plants


(Plant Specific)
11

Plant Size

1000 MW

Construction Starts

2015

Construction Period

7 Years

Commissioning Year

2022

Plant Capacity Factor

85% (Gen III+ )

Overnight Investment Cost

US $ 4,389/kW in 2015

Phasing of Investment Cost

7%, 13%, 20%, 22%, 16%, 13%, 9%

Contractor Share in Cost

85% (FE : 80%, LC : 20%)

Owner Share in Cost

15% (FE : 10%, LC : 90%)

Plant Life

40 Years

Fuel Cost

0.64 Cents/kWh

O & M Cost (including


Decommissioning & Waste Disposal)

0.70 Cents/kWh

Disclaimer: Nuclear Data is not Country Specific

11

Future Coal-fired Power Plants


(Plant Specific)
12

Plant Size

= 1000 MW

Construction Starts

= 2018

Construction Period

= 4 Years

Commissioning Year

= 2022

Plant Capacity Factor

= 80%

Overnight Investment Cost (Brown Coal )

= US $ 2,704/kW in 2018

Phasing of Investment Cost

= 33%, 33%, 14%, 20%

Contractor Share in Cost

= 70% (FE : 80%, LC : 20%)

Owner Share in Cost

= 30% (FE : 10%, LC : 90%)

Plant Life

= 30 Years

Plant Thermal Efficiency

= 40%

Fuel Cost (Imported Coal)

= US $ 129/ton

Fuel Cost (Local Coal)

= US $ 103/ton

O & M Cost

= 0.60 Cents/kWh

12

Comparison of Levelized Electricity Generation Cost


13

Upfront Tariff by NEPRA

Upfront Tariff by
NEPRA

All Cost and Revenues are in Constant Dollars

Disclaimer: Nuclear Data is not Country Specific

13

Comparison of Nuclear Electricity with Alternate Options


(INPRO : UR1, Cost of Energy)
14

Plant Type
(Units)

Overnight Cost

LEGC

($/kW)

(Cents/kWh)

NPP

4,389

11.02

Coal (Local)

2,704

10.61

Coal (Imported)

2,704

11.57

UR1
AL1.1
LEGC of
Nuclear is
comparable

Notes: 1. Government has set a target of 8800 MW installed capacity of nuclear by 2030.
2. Till now government is the only investor in Nuclear Energy.

Disclaimer: Nuclear Data is not Country Specific

14

Comparison of Nuclear Electricity with Alternate Options


(INPRO : UR2, Ability to Finance)
15

UR2

UR2
AL2.1.1
IRR less
than
Alternate

Plant Type

IRR

ROI

NPV

(Units)

(%)

(%)

($ M)

12.91

0.207

1,116

NPP

AL2.1.2
ROI better
than
Alternate

UR2
Coal (Local)

16.55

0.106

1,265

Coal
(Imported)

15.15

0.106

967

AL2.1.3
NPV is
Comparable

Notes:
1. Average sale price of electricity was US Cents 10.2/kWh in 2012-13.
2. As sale price is subsidized by the Government, so estimated average generation cost of
thermal power plants (US Cents 13.9/kWh in 2012-13) is used for analysis.

Disclaimer: Nuclear Data is not Country Specific

Thank You