Probability

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Probability

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Lecture 9

Sibylle Schroll

University of Leicester

MA1061Lecture 9

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Plan

Random variables;

MA1061Lecture 9

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Plan

Random variables;

Distribution of random variables.

MA1061Lecture 9

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Plan

Random variables;

Distribution of random variables.

Distribution functions;

MA1061Lecture 9

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Plan

Random variables;

Distribution of random variables.

Distribution functions;

A few examples of random variables.

MA1061Lecture 9

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Recall that

A random variable X is a function X : R.

MA1061Lecture 9

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Recall that

A random variable X is a function X : R.

The probability distribution of X is a new probability PX defined

on the range (RX , R) such that for B R

P(X B) = PX (B) = P(X1 (B)) = P({ : X() B}).

MA1061Lecture 9

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Recall that

A random variable X is a function X : R.

The probability distribution of X is a new probability PX defined

on the range (RX , R) such that for B R

P(X B) = PX (B) = P(X1 (B)) = P({ : X() B}).

The probability structure of a finite random variable X is

completely specified by its probability mass function

PX () : RX [0, 1],

X

PX (x) = 1.

xRX

MA1061Lecture 9

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Distribution function

MA1061Lecture 9

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Distribution function

Definition (Distribution function)

Let x R. The function

FX (x) = P{ : X() 6 x},

is called the (cumulative) distribution function of the random variable

X.

MA1061Lecture 9

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1

FX () = 0;

MA1061Lecture 9

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1

FX () = 0;

2

FX (+) = 1;

MA1061Lecture 9

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1

FX () = 0;

2

FX (+) = 1;

3

FX (x) is right-continuous; ie limh0 F(x + h) = F(x).

MA1061Lecture 9

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1

FX () = 0;

2

FX (+) = 1;

3

FX (x) is right-continuous; ie limh0 F(x + h) = F(x).

4

FX is non-decreasing.

MA1061Lecture 9

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1

FX () = 0;

2

FX (+) = 1;

3

FX (x) is right-continuous; ie limh0 F(x + h) = F(x).

4

FX is non-decreasing.

5

FX is piecewise constant.

MA1061Lecture 9

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MA1061Lecture 9

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Very different experiments can lead naturally to essentially the

same random variable;

MA1061Lecture 9

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Very different experiments can lead naturally to essentially the

same random variable;

The particular random variablesdistributions we shall learn

about in the next few lectures appear in a wide variety of

settings.

MA1061Lecture 9

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Very different experiments can lead naturally to essentially the

same random variable;

The particular random variablesdistributions we shall learn

about in the next few lectures appear in a wide variety of

settings.

We shall see certain patterns arising.

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example

Example

In human populations, the probability of male and female are

approximately equal:

1

P(male) = P(female) = .

2

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example

Example

In human populations, the probability of male and female are

approximately equal:

1

P(male) = P(female) = .

2

Consider now a family with three kids;

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example

Example

In human populations, the probability of male and female are

approximately equal:

1

P(male) = P(female) = .

2

Consider now a family with three kids;

Let X count the number of male children.

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example

Example

In human populations, the probability of male and female are

approximately equal:

1

P(male) = P(female) = .

2

Consider now a family with three kids;

Let X count the number of male children.

What is the distribution of X?

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example continued

x

PX (x)

1

8

3

8

3

8

1

8

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example continued

x

PX (x)

1

8

3

8

3

8

1

8

toss three coins.

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example continued

x

PX (x)

1

8

3

8

3

8

1

8

toss three coins.

Different settings but same distribution.

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example continued

x

PX (x)

1

8

3

8

3

8

1

8

toss three coins.

Different settings but same distribution.

In both experiments independent trials of a random variable with

two possible values are performed.eg

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example continued

x

PX (x)

1

8

3

8

3

8

1

8

toss three coins.

Different settings but same distribution.

In both experiments independent trials of a random variable with

two possible values are performed.eg

Girl or Boy?

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example continued

x

PX (x)

1

8

3

8

3

8

1

8

toss three coins.

Different settings but same distribution.

In both experiments independent trials of a random variable with

two possible values are performed.eg

Girl or Boy?

Heads or Tails?

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example continued

x

PX (x)

1

8

3

8

3

8

1

8

toss three coins.

Different settings but same distribution.

In both experiments independent trials of a random variable with

two possible values are performed.eg

Girl or Boy?

Heads or Tails?

0 or 1? Success or Failure?

MA1061Lecture 9

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More comments

MA1061Lecture 9

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More comments

natural to study a random variable without considering the

underlying experiment;

MA1061Lecture 9

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More comments

natural to study a random variable without considering the

underlying experiment;

We may study random variables without specifying the

probability space (, A, P).

MA1061Lecture 9

9 / 25

9 / 25

More comments

natural to study a random variable without considering the

underlying experiment;

We may study random variables without specifying the

probability space (, A, P).

Given a random variable X we are only interested in the

probability space (RX , R, PX ).

MA1061Lecture 9

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More comments

natural to study a random variable without considering the

underlying experiment;

We may study random variables without specifying the

probability space (, A, P).

Given a random variable X we are only interested in the

probability space (RX , R, PX ).

We are interested only in the probability distribution or

distribution function.

MA1061Lecture 9

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are equally likely.

MA1061Lecture 9

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are equally likely.

Definition (Discrete Uniform Distribution)

Let X take each of the values {x1 , . . . , xn } with the same probability

1

.

n

Then we say that X is uniformly distributed on the set {x1 , . . . , xn }.

The distribution of X is called the discrete uniform distribution.

MA1061Lecture 9

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are equally likely.

Definition (Discrete Uniform Distribution)

Let X take each of the values {x1 , . . . , xn } with the same probability

1

.

n

Then we say that X is uniformly distributed on the set {x1 , . . . , xn }.

The distribution of X is called the discrete uniform distribution.

e.g. the distribution of the number showing on a fair die.

MA1061Lecture 9

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A random variable X that takes the values 1 and 0 with probabilities

p, and q = 1 p resp. is called a Bernoulli random variable.

MA1061Lecture 9

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A random variable X that takes the values 1 and 0 with probabilities

p, and q = 1 p resp. is called a Bernoulli random variable.

Any experiment with two possible outcomes can be modelled by

a Bernoulli variable. eg the sex of a child, the outcome of a toss

of a coin.

MA1061Lecture 9

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A random variable X that takes the values 1 and 0 with probabilities

p, and q = 1 p resp. is called a Bernoulli random variable.

Any experiment with two possible outcomes can be modelled by

a Bernoulli variable. eg the sex of a child, the outcome of a toss

of a coin.

How is a Bernoulli random variable related to an indicator?

MA1061Lecture 9

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MA1061Lecture 9

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Consider X = 1A .

MA1061Lecture 9

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Consider X = 1A .

Then P(X = 1) = p, and P(X = 0) = 1 p.

MA1061Lecture 9

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Consider X = 1A .

Then P(X = 1) = p, and P(X = 0) = 1 p.

Hence indicators are equivalent to Bernoulli variables.

MA1061Lecture 9

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variable/binomial distribution

A sequence of trials or experiments for which

MA1061Lecture 9

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variable/binomial distribution

A sequence of trials or experiments for which

(i) the outcomes of the trials are independent;

MA1061Lecture 9

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variable/binomial distribution

A sequence of trials or experiments for which

(i) the outcomes of the trials are independent;

(ii) outcomes are of two types (success, failure); and

MA1061Lecture 9

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variable/binomial distribution

A sequence of trials or experiments for which

(i) the outcomes of the trials are independent;

(ii) outcomes are of two types (success, failure); and

(iii) the probabilities for the two types of outcomes remain the same

for all the trials,

MA1061Lecture 9

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variable/binomial distribution

A sequence of trials or experiments for which

(i) the outcomes of the trials are independent;

(ii) outcomes are of two types (success, failure); and

(iii) the probabilities for the two types of outcomes remain the same

for all the trials,

is called an sequence of Bernoulli trials.

MA1061Lecture 9

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A sequence of trials is essentially a sequence of independent

random variables X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn .

MA1061Lecture 9

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A sequence of trials is essentially a sequence of independent

random variables X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn .

Each random variable must have the same distribution.

MA1061Lecture 9

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A sequence of trials is essentially a sequence of independent

random variables X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn .

Each random variable must have the same distribution.

In the case of Bernoulli trials:

P(X1 = 1) = = P(Xn = 1) = p,

P(X1 = 0) = = P(Xn = 0) = q = 1 p.

MA1061Lecture 9

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A sequence of trials is essentially a sequence of independent

random variables X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn .

Each random variable must have the same distribution.

In the case of Bernoulli trials:

P(X1 = 1) = = P(Xn = 1) = p,

P(X1 = 0) = = P(Xn = 0) = q = 1 p.

Plenty of examples. BUT we still need to define what

independence means in this situation.

MA1061Lecture 9

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independent, and P(Ai ) = p.

MA1061Lecture 9

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independent, and P(Ai ) = p.

Can you think of a way to define independent Bernoulli

variables?

MA1061Lecture 9

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independent, and P(Ai ) = p.

Can you think of a way to define independent Bernoulli

variables?

Xi = 1Ai , for i = 1, . . . , n.

MA1061Lecture 9

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= { : = (a1 , . . . , an ), ai = 0 or 1}.

MA1061Lecture 9

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= { : = (a1 , . . . , an ), ai = 0 or 1}.

By independence of trials the probability of an elementary event

in which there are precisely k successes and n k

failures is just

k nk

P() = P((a1 , . . . , an )) = p q

k=

n

X

ai .

i=1

MA1061Lecture 9

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= { : = (a1 , . . . , an ), ai = 0 or 1}.

By independence of trials the probability of an elementary event

in which there are precisely k successes and n k

failures is just

k nk

P() = P((a1 , . . . , an )) = p q

k=

n

X

ai .

i=1

MA1061Lecture 9

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= { : = (a1 , . . . , an ), ai = 0 or 1}.

By independence of trials the probability of an elementary event

in which there are precisely k successes and n k

failures is just

k nk

P() = P((a1 , . . . , an )) = p q

k=

n

X

ai .

i=1

Number of orderings of k 1s and (n k) 0s

Cn

k

MA1061Lecture 9

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On the probability space we just constructed define the variable

X : R by

MA1061Lecture 9

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On the probability space we just constructed define the variable

X : R by

X() = X((a1 , . . . , an )) =

n

X

ai = number of successes.

i=1

MA1061Lecture 9

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On the probability space we just constructed define the variable

X : R by

X() = X((a1 , . . . , an )) =

n

X

ai = number of successes.

i=1

then X() = k.

MA1061Lecture 9

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17 / 25

On the probability space we just constructed define the variable

X : R by

X() = X((a1 , . . . , an )) =

n

X

ai = number of successes.

i=1

then X() = k.

We want to find the (probability) distribution of X. Range?

.

MA1061Lecture 9

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17 / 25

On the probability space we just constructed define the variable

X : R by

X() = X((a1 , . . . , an )) =

n

X

ai = number of successes.

i=1

then X() = k.

We want to find the (probability) distribution of X. Range?

{0, 1, . . . , n}.

MA1061Lecture 9

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On the probability space we just constructed define the variable

X : R by

X() = X((a1 , . . . , an )) =

n

X

ai = number of successes.

i=1

then X() = k.

We want to find the (probability) distribution of X. Range?

{0, 1, . . . , n}.

Let k = 0, . . . , n. What is PX (k)?

Sibylle Schroll (University of Leicester)

MA1061Lecture 9

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By definition

PX (k) = P { : X() = k} .

MA1061Lecture 9

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By definition

PX (k) = P { : X() = k} .

Let Bk = { : X() = k}.

MA1061Lecture 9

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By definition

PX (k) = P { : X() = k} .

Let Bk = { : X() = k}.

Obviously Bk consists of the binary sequences of length n with

exactly k 1s and n k 0s.

MA1061Lecture 9

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By definition

PX (k) = P { : X() = k} .

Let Bk = { : X() = k}.

Obviously Bk consists of the binary sequences of length n with

exactly k 1s and n k 0s.

We just saw that there are Cn

k of these.

MA1061Lecture 9

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If then P() = P((a1 , . . . , an )) = pk qnk .

MA1061Lecture 9

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If then P() = P((a1 , . . . , an )) = pk qnk .

Therefore

k nk

.

P({X = k}) = PX (k) = Cn

kp q

MA1061Lecture 9

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If then P() = P((a1 , . . . , an )) = pk qnk .

Therefore

k nk

.

P({X = k}) = PX (k) = Cn

kp q

The variable X is completely characterized by its probability

distribution

k nk

PX (k) = Cn

,

kp q

MA1061Lecture 9

k = 0, . . . , n.

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If then P() = P((a1 , . . . , an )) = pk qnk .

Therefore

k nk

.

P({X = k}) = PX (k) = Cn

kp q

The variable X is completely characterized by its probability

distribution

k nk

PX (k) = Cn

,

kp q

k = 0, . . . , n.

MA1061Lecture 9

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If then P() = P((a1 , . . . , an )) = pk qnk .

Therefore

k nk

.

P({X = k}) = PX (k) = Cn

kp q

The variable X is completely characterized by its probability

distribution

k nk

PX (k) = Cn

,

kp q

k = 0, . . . , n.

We write X Bi(n, p).

MA1061Lecture 9

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A random variable X such that

k

nk

P(X = k) = Cn

,

k p (1 p)

variable with parameters n, p.

The distribution of X defined as above is called the Binomial

distribution with parameters n, p.

MA1061Lecture 9

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MA1061Lecture 9

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independent experiments each with probability of success p.

MA1061Lecture 9

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independent experiments each with probability of success p.

Its distribution PX (k) gives the probability of having k successes

in n independent trials.

MA1061Lecture 9

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Theorem

Let X1 , X2 , ..., Xn be n independent Bernoulli random variables of

parameter p. Then

X = X1 + X2 + + Xn

has a binomial distribution. In fact

X Bi(n, p.)

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example

Suppose a family has three children and suppose that it is equally

likely to have boy or girl.

If X is the number of male children, what is the probability

distribution of X?

Using this distribution, calculate the probability that the family has 0,

1, 2 or 3 boys.

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example

Suppose 10 % of items produced in a factory are defective. Choose 3

items at random. What is the probability that

MA1061Lecture 9

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24 / 25

Example

Suppose 10 % of items produced in a factory are defective. Choose 3

items at random. What is the probability that

(a) all are defective

MA1061Lecture 9

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24 / 25

Example

Suppose 10 % of items produced in a factory are defective. Choose 3

items at random. What is the probability that

(a) all are defective

(b) 2 are defective

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example

Suppose 10 % of items produced in a factory are defective. Choose 3

items at random. What is the probability that

(a) all are defective

(b) 2 are defective

(c) none are defective?

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example

Suppose 10 % of items produced in a factory are defective. Choose 3

items at random. What is the probability that

(a) all are defective

(b) 2 are defective

(c) none are defective?

Use the binomial distribution to answer the question.

MA1061Lecture 9

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24 / 25

Example

Suppose 10 % of items produced in a factory are defective. Choose 3

items at random. What is the probability that

(a) all are defective

(b) 2 are defective

(c) none are defective?

Use the binomial distribution to answer the question.

Could you answer the question without using the binomial

distribution?

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example

Suppose 10 % of items produced in a factory are defective. Choose 3

items at random. What is the probability that

(a) all are defective

(b) 2 are defective

(c) none are defective?

Use the binomial distribution to answer the question.

Could you answer the question without using the binomial

distribution?

X Bi(3, 0.1)

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example

Suppose 10 % of items produced in a factory are defective. Choose 3

items at random. What is the probability that

(a) all are defective

(b) 2 are defective

(c) none are defective?

Use the binomial distribution to answer the question.

Could you answer the question without using the binomial

distribution?

X Bi(3, 0.1)

Hence P(X = 3) = C33 (0.1)3 (0.9)0 = 0.001

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example

Suppose 10 % of items produced in a factory are defective. Choose 3

items at random. What is the probability that

(a) all are defective

(b) 2 are defective

(c) none are defective?

Use the binomial distribution to answer the question.

Could you answer the question without using the binomial

distribution?

X Bi(3, 0.1)

Hence P(X = 3) = C33 (0.1)3 (0.9)0 = 0.001

P(X = 2) = C32 (0.1)2 (0.9)1 = 3x0.01x0.9 = 0.027

MA1061Lecture 9

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Example

Suppose 10 % of items produced in a factory are defective. Choose 3

items at random. What is the probability that

(a) all are defective

(b) 2 are defective

(c) none are defective?

Use the binomial distribution to answer the question.

Could you answer the question without using the binomial

distribution?

X Bi(3, 0.1)

Hence P(X = 3) = C33 (0.1)3 (0.9)0 = 0.001

P(X = 2) = C32 (0.1)2 (0.9)1 = 3x0.01x0.9 = 0.027

P(X = 0) = C30 (0.1)0 (0.9)3 = 0.729

MA1061Lecture 9

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Whats next?

random vectors;

MA1061Lecture 9

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25 / 25

Whats next?

random vectors;

independence of random variables;

MA1061Lecture 9

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Whats next?

random vectors;

independence of random variables;

functions of random variables.

MA1061Lecture 9

25 / 25

25 / 25

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