Probability

Theory- Probability
TERMS AND DEFINITIONS USED IN PROBABILITY :

1.1

Random Experiment
An experiment is called random if
(i)
all the outcomes of the experiment are known in advance
(ii)
the exact outcome of any specific performance of the experiment is unpredicatable i.e. not
known in advance. For Example drawing a card from a well shuffled pack of 52 playing
cards is a random experiment.

1.2

Sample Space
A set whose elements represent all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the sample
space and is usually represented by S.
Consider the experiment of tossing a die. If we are interested in the number on the top face, then
sample space would be S1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. If we are interested only in whether the number is
even or odd, then sample space is S2 = {even, odd}. Clearly more than one sample space can be
used to describe the outcomes of an experiment. In this case S1 provides more information than
S2. If we know which element in S1 occurs, we can tell which outcome in S2 occurs; however,
knowledge of what happens in S2 in no way helps us to know which element in S1 occurs.
In general it is desirable to use a sample space that gives the maximum information concerning the
outcomes of the experiment.

1.3

Sample Point

yS

te

ps

.in

1.

Event
An event is a subset of the sample space. When a die is rolled, sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Let A = {1, 3, 5}, B = {2, 4, 6}, C = {1, 2, 3, 4}. Here A is the event of occurrence of an odd number,

St

1.4

ud

Each element of the sample space is called a sample point.

B is the event of occurrence of an even number and C is the event of occurrence of a number less
than 5.
1.5

Simple Event
An event is called a simple event, if it is a singleton subset of the sample space S.

1.6

Compound Event
A subset of the sample space S which contains more than one element is called a compound event

1.7

Equally likely Events

A set of events is said to be equally likely if taking into consideration all the relevant factors there is
no reason to expect one of them in preference to the others. For example when a fair coin is
tossed, the occurrence of a tail or a head are equally likely.

1.8

Exhaustive Events
A system of events is said to be exhaustive if on each performance of the experiment at least one of
the events of the system is must to occur. In set theoretic notation, events A1, A2, . . . , Am are

Page 1 of 25

exhausitve if Ai S . For example on throwing of a die, the events {1, 2}, {2, 3, 4}, {5} and
i 1

{4, 5, 6} form an exhaustive system of events.

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Probability

1.9

Mutually Exclusive Events

A set of events is said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one of them precludes the occurrence
of any of the remaining events. For example, when we throw a pair of dice, the events a sum of 5
occurs, a sum of 7 occurs and a sum of 9 occurs are mutually exclusive. In set theoretic notation,
events A1, A2, . . . , Am are mutually exclusive if Ai A j for i j and 1 i, j m .

2.

CLASSICAL DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY

If there are n exhausitve mutually exclusive and equally likely out comes of an experiment and m of

m
and it is
n
denoted by P(A). Clearly P(A) is a non-negative number not greater than unity. So 0 P(A) 1 .
If probability of happening of an event A is 1, then A is called certain event and if probability of
happening of event A is zero, then A is called impossible event.
them are favourable to an event A, then the probability of the happening of A is equal to

.in

Illustration 1 :
Six boys and six girls sit in a row randomly, find the probability that all the 6 girls sit together.

te
yS

n E 6!7! 1
P(E) = n S 12! 132 .

ps

Solution:
Let S be the sample space and E the event that all the 6 girls sit together . Then n(S) = Total number
of ways of seating 6 boys and 6 girls in a row = 12! and n(E) = number of ways of seating 6 boys and
6 girls in a row so that all the 6 girls sit together = 7!6!

ud

Drill Exercise - 1

Two numbers are selected at random from 1, 2, 3, ......, 100 and are multiplied. Find the
probability correct to two places of decimals that the product thus obtained, is divisible
by 3.

2.

Each coefficient in the equation ax2 + bx + c = 0 is determined by throwing an ordinary die. Find
the probability that the equation will have equal roots.

3.

Four cards are drawn from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability (correct upto two
places of decimals) of drawing exactly one pair.

4.

From a bag containing 5 red different pairs and 4 white different pairs of socks. Find the probability
of getting a pair by drawing 2 socks.

5.

Seven white balls and three black balls are randomly placed in a row. Find the probability that no two
black balls are placed adjacently.

2.1

Odds in Favour and Odds Against an Event

As a result of an experiment, if p of the outcomes are favourable to an event E and q of the outcomes
are against it, then we say that odds are p to q in favour of E or odds are q to p

St

1.

Page 2 of 25

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Probability

against E.

number of favourable cases

p
Odds in favour of an event E = number of unfavourable cases q
and odds against an event E =

number of unfavourable cases

q

number of favourable cases

p

p
If odds in favour of an event E are p : q then the probability of the occurrence of that event is p q
q
Similarly the probability of the non-occurrence of that event is p q
Illustration 2 :
What are the odds in favour of throwing at least 8 in a single throw with two dice?
Solution :
Let S be the sample space and E be the event of occurrence of a total of at least 8, then
n(S) = 6 6 36 and n(E) = 15

P E 1 P(E) 1

.in

15
36
15 21

36 36

te

Odds infavour of E = P(E) : P E = 5 : 7 ]

ps

P(E) =

yS

drill exercise - 2
In a given race, the odds in favor of four horses A, B, C and D are 1 : 3, 1 : 4, 1 : 5 and 1 : 6
respectively. Assuming that a dead heat is impossible, find the chance that one of them wins the race.

2.

The chance of one event happening is the square of the chance of a 2nd event, but odds against the
first are the cubes of the odds against the 2nd . Find the chances of each.

3.

Three critics review a book. Odds in favour of the book are 5 : 2, 4 : 3 and 3 : 4 respectively for the
three critics. Find the probability that majority are in favour of the book.

4.

Suppose that it is 9 to 7 against a person A who is now 35 years of age living till he is 65 and 3
to 2 against a person B now 45 living till he is 75, then find the chance that one atleast of these
persons will be alive 30 years hence.

5.

What are the odds in favours of getting a spade if the card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of
cards ? What are the odds in favour of getting a king ?

3.1

SET THEORETIC PRINCIPLES

If A and B be any two events of the sample space, then A B would stand for occurrence of
atleast one of them and AB stands for simultaneous occurrence of A and B. A or A stands for
nonoccurrence of A.
A B (or (A B) stands for nonoccurrence of both A and B. A B stands for the occurrence

St

ud

1.

Page 3 of 25

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Probability

of B implies the occurrence of A.

If A and B are any two events, then P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P (AB). If A and B are mutually
exclusive, P(AB) = P(A) + P(B).
Hence P A = P(A) = 1 P(A)
P(AB) = P(A) P(AB)
Now P(exactly one of A and B occurs)
= P A B P A B = P(A) + P(B) 2P(A B) = P(A B) P(A B)
Some Theorems
(i)
(ii)

(iii)

If A B , then (i) P A P B and (ii) P(B A) = P(B) P(A)

n

P Ai

i 1
exclusive.

P Ai and equality holds if and only if events A , i = 1, 2, . . . , n are

i

i 1

P Ai 1 and equality holds if and only if events A , i = 1, 2, . . . n are exhaustive.

i
i 1

.in

3.2

P Ai = 1 if events A , i = 1, 2, . . ., n are exclusive and exhaustive.

i

i 1

ps

(iv)

Some Useful Formulas

(i)
For two events A and B
(a)
P(at least one out of them) = P(A) + P(B) P( A B)
(b)
P (exactly one out of them) = P(A) + P(B) 2 P( A B)
(ii)

St

ud

3.3

yS

te

n
n
Note : If events A1, A2, . . . , An are exclusive, then P A i P A i . This is called the rule of

i 1 i 1
sum.

For three events A, B and C

(a)
P(at least one out of them) =
(b)
(c)
(d)

P A P B P C P A B P B C P C A P A B C
P (at least two out of them) =
P(B C) P(C A ) P(A B) 2P(A B C)
P (exactly two out of them) =
P(B C) P(C A ) P(A B) 3P(A B C)
P (exactly one out of them) =
P( A ) P( B) P(C) 2P( B C) 2P(C A ) 2P( A B) 3P( A B C)

Illustration 3 :
From the set S = {1, 2, 3, . . . 3n}, three numbers are chosen at random. Find the probability that
the sum of the chosen numbers is divisible by 3.
Solution :
Let Sk S, having those numbers, which leave a remainder of k, k = 0, 1, 2, when divided by 3.
Obviously n(Sk) = n.

Page 4 of 25

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Probability

Let Ek be the event that the numbers are chosen from Sk, k = 0, 1, 2. Let E3 be the event that the
chosen numbers are from the sets S0, S1 and S2 (one number from each set). Let E be event that
n

the sum of the chosen numbers is divisible by 3. Now P(E0) = P(E1) = P(E3) =
P(E3) =

C3

3n

nnn

C3

.
C3
The required probability = P(E) = P E0 E1 E2 E3
3n

= P(E0) + P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3)

=

3.n C3 n 3
3n

C3

(using rule of sum )

.
Drill Exercise -3

Let A and B be two events defined on a sample space. Given P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.80 and P A B = 0.10.

A
(i) P
B

B
(ii) P
A

1
1
1
, P(B) = and P A B . Find
2
3
4

(iii) P A B

A
(iv) P
B

B
(v) P
A

If two events A and B are such that P(A c) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4 and P(AB c) = 0.5 then

ud

3.

.in

Let A and B be two events with P(A) =

te

2.

(ii) P A B A B

(i) P A B

ps

Find

yS

1.

4.

St

find the value of P[ B /( A B c ] .

The probabilities of three events A, B and C are P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.4, P(C) = 0.5. If
P ( A B) 0.8, P ( A C) 0.3, P ( A B C) 0.2 and P ( A B C) 0.85 . Find
P ( A B C) 0.85 . Find P ( B C) .

5.

A and B are two independent events. The probability that both occur simultaneously is 1/6 and the
probability that neither occurs is 1/3. Find the probabilities of occurrence of the events A and B
separately.

4.

INDEPENDENT EXPERIMENTS
If two random experiments are performed and their outcomes are independent of each other, then the
experiments are called independent experiments.

For example
(i) Consider the tossing of a coin twice, clearly the outcome for the second toss is not effected by the
result of the first toss. So the two tosses are independent random experiments.

Page 5 of 25

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Probability

(ii) Consider the drawing of two balls one after the other, with replacement, from an urn containing
two or more balls. Then the two draws are independent of each other. So considering each draw as
an experiment, the two experiments are independent random experiments.
(iii) In throwing of a die and a coin together or one after the other are independent experiments.
Remarks
(i)
(ii)

In drawing of two cards, without replacement, from a well-shuffled ordinary pack of 52playing cards, the two draws are not independent experiments.
Let E1 and E2 be two independent random experiments.Let A be an event of experiment
E1 only and B be an event of experiment E2 only. Then P(A occurs in E1 and B occurs in
E2) = P(A). P(B).

For example if a coin and a die are thrown together and A = {H}, B = {1, 2, 3, 4}, then P(head on
1 4 1
coin and a number 4 on die) = P(A). P(B) = .
2 6 3
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION FOR SUCCESSIVE EVENTS
If probability of occuring an event is P and it remains P in each trial of the experiment. Now if experiment
is repeated n times, then
(i)
Probability of occuring the event exactly r times is nCr P r (1 P) n r.

.in

5.

ps

(ii)

Probability of occuring the event atleast r times is

Probability of occuring the event atmost r times is

yS

(iii)

te

k r

C k P k (1 P) n k .

k 0

C k P k (1 P) n k .

ud

For example if a die is thrown five times and we want the probability of occurrence of a composite
number four times, then we have p =
4

10
1 2
= C4
.
3 3 243

St

2 1
1 2
, q 1 and n = 5, r = 4. Thus required
6 3
3 3

r nr

probability = Crp q

Drill Exercise - 4
1.

A policeman fires six bullets on a dacoit. The probability that the dacoit will be killed by one bullet is
0.6, then find the probability that dacoit is still alive.

2.

One hundred identical coins, each with probability p, of showing up heads are tossed. If
0 < p < 1 and the probability of heads showing on 50 coins is equal to that of the heads showing in 51
coins, then find the value of p.

3.

If a pair of fair dice is rolled 5 times, then find out the probability that 3 times we get sum more than 9.

4.

If 4 times two cards are drawn from a pack of playing cards (each time replacing both). Then find the
probability that only one time, we get a pair. (cards of same denomination)

5.

A number is selected 3 times with replacement from the set {10, 11, 12 . . . 99}. Find out the
probability that at least two times product of digits of the selected number is 18.

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Probability

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The probability of occurrence of an event B when it is known that some event A has already occurred,
is called the conditional probability and is denoted by P(B/A). The symbol P(B/A) is usually read as
probability of B, given A.Consider two events A and B. When it is known that event A has occurred,
it means that sample space would reduce to that sample points representing event A. Now for P(B/A)
we must look for the sample points representing the simultaneous occurrence of A and B i.e., sample
points in A B .

n A B
n A B
P(A B)
n(S)
P(B/A) =

n(A)
n A
P(A)
n(S)

Thus P(B/A) =

P A B
P A B
,where 0 < P(A) 1. Similarly, P(A/B) =
,0 < P(B) 1
P A
P B

P(A).P(B / A), P(A) 0

Hence, P A B =
P(B).P(A / B), P(B) 0

.in

6.

ps

Illustration 4:
If a pair of dice is thrown and it is known that sum of the numbers is even, then find the probability that
the sum is less than 6.

te

Solution :
Let A be the given event and let B be the event, whose probability is to be found. Then

ud

yS

B P B A 4 / 36 2

.
Required probability P
P(A)
18 / 36 9
A

St

Drill Exercise - 5

1.

There is 30% chance that it rains on any particular day. What is the probability that there is at least
one rainy day within a period of 7-days ? Given that there is at least one rainy day, what is the
probability that there are at least two rainy days.

2.

A fair coin is tossed repeatedly. If tail appears on first four tosses, then find the probability that head
appearing on the fifth toss.

3.

In a certain town, 40% of the people have brown hair, 25% have brown eyes and 15% have both
brown hair and brown eyes. If a person selected at random from the town, having brown hair, then
find the probability that he also has brown eye.

4.

If E and F are the complementary events of events E and F respectively and if 0 < P(F) < 1, then
prove that
(i) P(E / F) + P E / F 1

5.

Page 7 of 25

(ii) P(E / F) E / F 1

A coin is tossed until a head appears or until it has been tossed 3 times. Given that head does not
appear on the first toss, then find the probability that the coin is tossed three times.

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Probability

6.1

Independent Events
Two events A and B are said to be independent if occurrence or nonoccurrence of one does not
affect the occurrence or nonoccurrence of the other,
i.e., P(B/A) = P(B), P(A) 0.

P(B/A) =

P A B
P(B)
P(A)

P(A B) = P(A). P(B)

If the events are not independent, then they are said to be dependent.
Illustration 5 :
If A and B are independent events. Then show that the following pairs of events are also
independent (i) A and B
(ii) A and B
Solution :
(i)

P A B P B P A B P B P(A)P(B)

.in

( A and B are independent)

P A B P A B 1 P A B

te

(ii)

ps

= P(B) (1 P(A)) = P(B) P A .

yS

= 1 P(A) P(B) P(A).P(B)

Mutually independent Events

Three events A, B and C are said to be mutually independent if,

St

6.2

ud

= 1 P(A) P(B) + P(A). P(B) = (1 P(A)) (1 P(B)) = P A . P B .

P A B = P(A). P(B), P A C = P(A). P(C), P B C = P(B). P(C)

and P A B C = P(A). P(B). P(C)
These events would be said to be pairwise independent if,
P A B = P(A). P(B), P B C = P(B). P(C) and P A C = P(A). P(C).

Thus mutually independent events are pairwise independent but the converse may not be true.
Illustration 6 :
A lot contains 50 defective and 50 non-defective bulbs. Two bulbs are drawn at random, one at a
time with replacement. The events A, B and C are defined as under:
A = {The first bulb is defective},
B = {The second bulb is non-defective}
C = {The two bulbs are either both defective or both non-defective}
Catogorize the events A, B and C to be pairwise independent or mutually independent.

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Probability

Solution :
P(A) =

1
1
1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 , P(B) = 1 and P(C) =
2
2
2 2
2 2 2 2 2

P A B P (the first bulb in defective and the second bulb is non-defective)

=

1 1 1
.
2 2 4

P B C = P(both the bulbs are non-defective) =

P C A = P (both the bulbs are defective) =

1 1 1

2 2 4

1 1 1

2 2 4

P A B C P 0
As P A B P(A).P(B), P B C P B .P C and P C A P(C).P(A) , the events
A, B and C are pairwise independent.

6.3

.in

Since P A B C 0 P(A).P(B).P(C) , A, B and C are not mutually independent.

Rule of Multiplication

ps

Suppose A1, A2, . . . , An be n events such that P A1 A 2 . . . A n 0 , then

yS

te

P Ai P A1 .P A 2 / A1 .P A 3 / A1 A 2 . . .P A n / A1 A 2 . . . A n 1

i 1

ud

Illustration 7:
P1, P2, . . . , P8 an eight players participating in a tournament. If i < j, then Pi will win the match against
Pj. Players are paired up randomly for first round and winners of this round again paired up for the
second round and so on. Find the probability that P4 reaches in the final.

Page 9 of 25

St

Solution:
Let A1 be the event that in the first round the four winners are P1, P4, Pi, Pj, where i {2, 3},
j {5, 6, 7}and let A2 be the event that out of the four winners in the first round, P1 and P4 reaches
in the final.
The event A1 will occur, if P4 plays with any of P5, P6, P7 or P8 (say with P6) and P1, P2 and P3 are
not paired with P5, P7 and P8. Further A2 will occur if P1 plays with Pj.
A2
The required probability = P A1 A 2 = P(A1). P A .
1

6
4

2 3 3

=
8

2 4

1
4

2 2

4
.
35

(Here we have used the concept of division into groups).

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Probability

drill exercise - 6

1.

Find the least number of times must a fair die be tossed, in order to have a probability of at least

91
,
216

of getting atleast one six.

Two subsets A and B of the set {1, 2, . . ., n} are chosen at random. Find the probability that they do
not have any element in common.

3.

Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of playing cards. Find the probability that one card
is a heart and the other is an ace.

4.

Let p is the probability that a man aged 75 years will die in a year, then find the probability that
among the persons S1, S2, S3,.........S50 each aged 75 years, S1 will die in a year and will be the first
one to die.

5.

Two cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards, then find
the probability of drawing two aces.

6.4

Total Probability Theorem

Suppose A1, A2 . . . , An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, then for any event B, we can

ps

.in

2.

te

B A
i 1

yS

write B =

P(B) =

i 1

ud

P B P B Ai , as events B A , i = 1, 2, . . ., n are exclusive.

i

i 1

St

P B / Ai .P Ai .

Illustration 8 :
Two sets of candidates are competing for the positions on the board of directors of a company. The
probabilities that the first and second sets will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. If the first set wins, the
probability of introducing a new product is 0.8, and the corresponding probability, if the second set
wins is 0.3. What is the probability that the new product will be introduced?
Solution :
Let A1 (A2) denotes the event that first (second) set wins and let B be the event that a new product
is introduced.
P(A1) = 0.6, P(A2) = 0.4

Page 10 of 25

B
B
0.8, P
= 0.3
P
A1
A2
B
B
P A2 P
.
P(B) = P B A1 P B A 2 P A1 .P
A1
A2
= 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.6 .

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Probability

6.5

Bayes Theorem
Suppose A1, A2, . . ., An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive set of events.
Then the conditional probability that Ai happens (given that B has happened) is given by
P(Aj/B) =

P Aj B
P B

P A j .P B / A j
n

P Ai .P B / Ai

, where j = 1, 2, ....., n.

i 1

Illustration 9 :
Box I contains 2 white and 3 red balls and box II contains 4 white and 5 red balls. One ball is
drawn at random from one of the boxes and is found to be red. Find the probability that it was
from box.

ps

te

ud

1 5
.
25
2 9

= 1 5 1 3 32
. .
2 9 2 5

yS

A
P A 2 .P

A2
A2

A
A
A
P A1 P P A 2 .P

A1
A2

.in

Solution :
Let A denote the event that the drawn ball is red
Let A1 The event that box I is selected and let A2 The event that box II is selected

Drill Exercise - 7

Three groups A, B and C are competing for position on the Board of Directors of a company. The
probabilities of their winning are 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 respectively. If the group A wins, the probability of
introducing a new product is 0.7 and the corresponding probabilities for groups B and C are 0.6
and 0.5 respectively. Find the probability that the new product will be introduced.

2.

A factory A produces 10% defective values and another factory B produces 20% defective. A bag
contains 4 values of factory A and 5 valves of factory B. If two valves are drawn at random from
the bag, find the probability that atleast one value is defective. Give your answer upto two places
of decimals.

3.

A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a dice and reports that it is six, then find
the probability that it is actually six.

4.

A bag contains 3 red and 4 white balls. If a fair coin is tossed, if head comes two ball is drawn and if
tail comes three ball is drawn, then find the probability that draw contains balls of both the colours.

5.

A bag contains 10 fair coins and 25 coins having heads on both sides. A coin is selected at randomly
and tossed. If it gives head, then find out the probability that it was a fair coin.

Page 11 of 25

St

1.

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Probability

Answer Key
Drill Exercise - 1
1.

0.55

2.

5/216

4.

1/17

5.

7
15

3.

0.31

3.

209
243

Drill Exercise - 2
1.

319/420

2.

1 1
,
9 3

4.

53/80

5.

1/3, 1/12
Drill Exercise - 3

2.

(i)

(ii) 0.76

3
4

(ii)

1
2

(iii)

7
12

4. .2 P ( B C) .35

5
8

5.

1
1
and
2
3

te

3. 0.25

(iv)

.in

(i) 0.82

ps

1.

5
6

(v)

1
1
and
3
2

or

2.

51
101

ud

0.004096

St

1.

yS

Drill Exercise - 4
3.

250
65

4.

214
17 4

5.

Drill Exercise - 5

1. [1 - (7/10)7 - 7C1(3/10) (7/10)6 / 1 - (7/10)7]

2.

1
2

3.

3
8

Drill Exercise - 6
1.

3.

3
1
26

2.

3

4

4.

1 (1 p) n
n

5.

1 1

13 13

3.

3
4

Drill Exercise - 7
1. 0.63

2.

517/1800

5
7

5.

1
6

4.

Page 12 of 25

524
453

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5.

1
2

Probability

SOLVED SUBJECTIVE EXAMPLES

Example 1:
If m different cards are placed at random and independently into n boxes lying in a straight line
(n > m), find the probability that the cards go into m adjacent boxes.
Solution :
m cards can be placed into n boxes independently in nm ways.
n(S) = nm

Now m adjacent boxes can be chosen in n m + 1 ways. In each of these the cards can be placed
into m! ways.
total number of ways in which the cards can be placed in m consecutive boxes
= (n m + 1). m!
Required probability =

m! n m 1
nm

.in

Example 2 :
Out of 21 tickets consecutively numbered, three are drawn at random. Find the probability that the
numbers on them are in A.P.

ps

Solution :
Any three tickets out of 21 tickets can be chosen is 21C3 ways. For the favourable choice if the chosen
ac
b . Obviously either both a and c are
2
even or both are odd and then b is fixed. Hence for the favourable choice we have to chose two
numbers from 1 to 21, which are either both even or both odd. This can be done in
11
C2 + 10C2 ways.

ud

yS

te

numbers are a, b and c, a < b < c, then we should have

11

St

Hence required probability =

C2 10 C2
21

C3

10
.
133

Example 3 :
A has 3 shares in a lottery containing 3 prizes and 9 blanks. B has 2 shares in a lottery containing 2
prizes and 6 blanks. Compare their chances of success.
Solution :
Let E1 be the event of success of A and let E2 be the event of success of B
Since A has 3 shares in a lottery containing 3 prizes and 9-blanks, A will draw 3 tickets out of 12
tickets (containing 3 prizes and 9 blanks). A will get success if he draws atleast one prize out of 3
draws.

Page 13 of 25

C3

P E1

P E1 1

Again, P E2

12

C3

21
55

21 34

55 55

C2

C2

15
28

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Probability

15 13

28 28

P(E2) = 1

P E1 34 28 952

P E 2 55 13 715

P(E1) : P(E2) = 952 : 715.

Example 4:
A coin is tossed m + n times (m > n). Show that the probability of at least m consecutive heads come
up is

n2
.
2m 2

te

ps

.in

Solution :
Let H, T and S be the events head turns up, tail turns up and head or tail turns up
1
Then P(H) = P(T) = and P(S) = 1
2
Since the given event is at least m consecutive heads turn up, therefore in any favorable out come
there are m consecutive heads and the rest are any of head or tail
Consider the events

H, H,. . ., H ,S,S,S,. . .,S with P(A ) = 1 .1n 1

A1 = H,

1
2m
2m

m times
n times

yS

H, H,. . ., H ,S,S,S,. . .,S with P(A ) = 1 . 1 .1n 1 1

A2 = T, H,

2
2 2m
2m 1

m times
n 1times

St

ud

H, H,. . ., H ,S,S,S,. . .,S with P(A ) = 1. 1 . 1 .1n 2 1

A3 = S,T, H,

3
2 2m

2m1
m times
n 2 times

1 1
1
S,S,S,.
.
.,S
,
T,
H,
H,
H,.
.
.,
H

. . . An + 1 =

With P(An + 1) = 1n 1. 2 . m m 1
2
2
n 1 times

m times
The given event is A1 A 2 A3 A n 1 . As A1, A2, A3, . . ., An + 1 are pair wise mutually exclusive.
The required probability
1
1
1
1
= P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + . . . + P(An + 1) = m m 1 m 1 . . . m 1
2
2
2
2

n times
1
n
2n
= m m 1 m 1 .
2
2
2
Example 5:
There are four six faced dice such that each of two dice bears the numbers 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 and the
other two dice are ordinary dice bearing numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. If all the four dice are thrown,
find the probability that the total of numbers coming up on all the dice is 10.

Solution :
Total number of sample points in the sample space = 64 = 1296
Number of sample points in favour of the event

Page 14 of 25

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Probability

= Coefficient of x10 in the expansion of (1 + x + x2 + . . . + x5)2 (x + x2 + . . . + x6)2

= Coefficient of x10 in the expansion of x2(1 + x + x2 + . . . + x5)4
= Coefficient of x8 in the expansion of (1 + x + x2 + . . . + x5)4
4

1 x6

= Coefficient of x8 in the expansionof

1 x
= Coefficient of x8 in the expansion of (1 x6)4 (1 x)4
4 5 2 4 5 6 3

x
x ...
= Coefficient of x8 in the expansion of (1 4x6) 1 4x
2!
3!

= 1 11 C8 4 5 C2 125 .

Required probability =

125
.
1296

Example 6:
A die is thrown 7 times. What is the probability that an odd number turns up (i) exactly 4 times (ii)
atleast 4 times.

p=

1
1
, q=
2
2

ps

3 1

6 2

Probability of success =

.in

Solution :

yS

te

1
(i) For exactly four successes, required probability = C4.
2
(ii) For atleast four successes, required probability

1
= C4
2

1
1
. 7 C5
2
2

35
1
.
2 128

1
1
. 7 C6
2
2

1
1
. 7 C7
2
2

35 21
7
1
64 1

.
128 128 128 128 128 2

St

ud

Example 7:
If m things are distributed among a men and b women, show that the probability that the number of
1 b a b a
2
b a m

things received by men is odd, is

Solution :

Page 15 of 25

A particular thing is received by a man with probability p =

=

a
and by a woman with probability q
ab

b
. If distributing a single object is an experiment, then this experiment is repeated m time. The
ab

required probability =

C1 . p. qm 1 + mC3 . p3. qm 3 + mC5 . p5. qm 5 + . . .

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Probability

q p m q p m
2

1 ba
= 2 1 b a

1 b a b a
=
2
b a m

Example 8 :

8
1
or at point B with probability . We
9
9
have 21 shells each of which can be fixed either at point A or B. Each shell may hit the target
An artillery target may be either at point A with probability

independently of the other shell with probability

1
. How many shells must be fired at point A to hit the
2

target with maximum probability?

Solution :
Let E denote the event that the target is hit when x shells are fired at point A. Let E1 (E2) denote the

We have P(E1) =

8
1
, P(E2) = .
9
9
x

yS

te

x
21 x

8 1 1 1 1 1

Now P(E) =
9 2 9 2

21 x

ps

E
E
1
1
1
P 1 and P

2
2
E1
E2

.in

event that the artillery target is at point A B .

ud

St

x
21 x

d
81
1 1
P(E) n 2
n2

dx
92
9 2

Now we must have

d
P E 0
dx

d2

P E 0
dx 2
Hence P(E) is maximum, when x = 12.

x = 12, also

Example 9:
Let p be the probability that a man aged x years will die within a year. Let A1, A2, . . . , An be n men
each aged x years. Find the probability that out of these n men A1 will die with in a year and is first to
die.
Solution :
P(no one among A1, A2 . . . , An dies within a year) = (1 p)n
P (at least one among A1, A2, . . ., An dies within a year) = 1 (1 p)n

Page 16 of 25

P(A1dies within a year and is first to die) =

1
n
1 1 p .

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Probability

Example 10:
Each of three bags A, B, C contains white balls and black balls. A has a1 white & b1 black, B has a2
white & b2 black and C has a3 white & b3 black balls. A ball is drawn from a bag and found to be
white. What are the probabilities that the ball is from bag A, B and C.
Solution :
Let A1, A2 and A3 be the events that the bag picked is A, B and C respectively.
Let E be the event that a white ball is drawn.
We are supposed to find P(A1/E), P(A2/E), P(A3/E).

Probability that bag Ais chosen and white ball is drawn

A1 P A1 E

P =

P(E)
E
Probability that a bag is chosen at random and a white ball is drawn

P A1 .P E / A1
P A1 .P E / A1 P A 2 .P E / A 2 P A 3 .P E / A 3

1 a1
.
p1
3 a1 b1

=
, pk
1 a1
a2
a 3 p1 p 2 p3
.

3 a1 b1 a 2 b 2 a 3 b3

te

Similarly, p(A2/E) =

ps

ak
, k = 1, 2, 3.
a k bk

p2
p3
, p(A3/E) =
.
p1 p 2 p3
p1 p 2 p3

yS

.in

St

ud

Example 11:
The probability that at least one of A and B occurs is 0.6. If A and B occur simultaneously with
probability 0.3, then find the value of P( A) P( B) .
Solution :
We have P( A B) 0.6 and P ( A B) 0.3
P(A) + P(B) = P( A B) + P( A B) = 0.6 + 0.3 = 0.9

P ( A) P ( B) 1 P ( A ) 1 P ( B) 2 0.9 1.1

Example 12:
There are n students in a class and probability that exactly out of n pass the examination is directly
proportional to 2 0 n .
(i)
Find out the probability that a student selected at random was passed the examination.
(ii)
If a selected student has been found to pass the examination then find out the probability that
he is the only student to have passed the examination.
Solution :

Page 17 of 25

Let E be the event that exactly out of n pass the examinations and let A be the event that a student
selected randomly pass the examination.

P E 2

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Probability

P E k 2 (k is proportionality constant)

Since E0, E1, E2, . . . , En are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
P(E0) + P(E1) + P(E2) + . . . + P(En) = 1

0 + k (1)2 + k (2)2 + . . . + k (n2) = 1

6
k = n n 1 2n 1

(i)

P(A)

(ii)

A
2
P E1 .P
E1

2
E1

P A
A
n n 1

. . . (i)

P E P A / E =

k 2

k n 3 3 n 1

n n
2 2n 1
1

A P A E
P
.
n
P E

ps

.in

Example 13 :
Let A and B be two independent witnesses in a case. The probability that A will speak the truth is x
and the probability that B will speak the truth is y. A and B agree in a certain statement. Show that the

te

xy
probability that the statement is true is 1 x y 2xy .

ud

yS

Solution :
Let E1 be the event that both A and B speak the truth, E2 be the event that both A and B tell a lie and
E be the event that A and B agree in a certain statement. Let C be the event that A speaks the truth and
D be the event that B speaks the truth.
E1 = C D and E2 = C D . P(E1) = P C D = P(C) P(D) = xy and

St

P(E2) = P C D = P C P D = (1 x) (1 y) = 1 x y + xy
Now

E
P E = probability that A and B will agree when both of them speak the truth = 1 and
1
E
P E = probability that A and B will agree when both of them tell a lie = 1.
2

E1
Clearly, E be the event that the statement is true.

P E1 .P E / E1
E1
P E P E .P E / E P E P E / E
1 1 2

2
=

xy.1
xy

.
xy.1 1 x y xy .1 1 x y 2xy

Example 14 :

Page 18 of 25

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Probability

Find the minimum number of tosses of a pair of dice, so that the probability of getting the sum of the
numbers on the dice equal to 7 on atleast one toss, is greater than 0.95.
(Given log102 = 0.3010, log103= 0.4771).
Solution :
n(S) = 36
Let E be the event of getting the sum of digits on the dice equal to 7, then n(E) = 6.

6 1
5
p , then P E = q =
36 6
6
probability of not throwing the sum 7 in first m trails = qm .
P(E) =

5
P(at least one 7 in m throws) = 1 q = 1 .
6
m

ps

m > 16.44

Hence, the least number of trails = 17.

.in

5
According to the question 1 0.95
6
m
5

6 0.05

m log10 5 log10 6 log10 1 log10 20

yS

te

Example 15 :
Two teams A and B play a tournment. The first one to win (n + 1) games, win the series. The
probability that A wins a game is p and that B wins a game is q (no ties). Find the probability that A

ud

wins the series. Hence or otherwise prove that

n r Cr . 2n r 1 .

r 0

Page 19 of 25

St

Solution :
A wins the series, if out of first n + r games A wins n games, 0 r n and wins the (n + r + 1)th game.

P(A) = n r Cn .q r .p n . p (where p + q = 1)

r 0

n r Cn .q n 1.pr
n

Similarly, P(B) =

r 0

Now P(A) + P(B) = 1

n

q r .pn 1 q n 1.pr n r Cn 1

r 0

Now put p = q =

n r Cn . 2n r 1 .
n

from (i),

1
2
1

r 0

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. . . (i)

Probability

SOLVED OBJECTIVE EXAMPLES

Example 1 :
A natural number is chosen at random from the first one hundred natural numbers. The probability that

x 20 x 40 0 is

x 30
1
3
(a)
(b)
50
50
3
7
(c)
(d)
25
25
Solution :
From the wavy curve method, given inequality is satisfied for x < 20 or 30 < x < 40.
Number of favourable outcomes = 28

28
7
.
100 25

.in

Required probability =

ps

Example 2 :

5 A 1 , p(B) 3
,P
, then A and B are
3
4
6
(b) dependent
(d) none of these

te

If A and B are two events such that P(A B)

ud

Solution :

yS

(a) mutually exclusive

(c) independent

P A B

P(A) P(B) =

St

P A B P(A) P(B) P A B
1 3 5 3 1

3 4 6 12 4

1 3 1
. .
3 4 4

As P(A) P(B) = P A B

independent

P A B 0

not exclusive.

Example 3 :

Page 20 of 25

1 3p 1 p
1 p
,
and
are the probabilities of three mutually exclusive events, then the set of all
3
2
2
values of p is

If

(a)
(c) [0, 1]

1 1
(b) ,
2 3
(d) none of these

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Probability

Solution :
We have
1 2p
1 1
1 3p 1 p
1 p , . Further if the events
,
and
2
3
2
3 2
(say E1, E2 and E3) are exclusive, then its necessary and sufficient condition is
0

P E1 E 2 E3 P E1 P E 2 P E3 P E1 E 2 E3
8 3p
1
6

8 3p
6

2 8
p , .
3 3

Hence the required set is .

Example 4 :
For independent events A1, . . ., An, P(Ai) =

1
, i = 1, 2, . . ., n. Then the probability that none
i 1

te

ps

.in

of the events will occur is

(a) n/(n + 1)
(b) n 1/(n + 1)
(c) 1/(n + 1)
(d) none of these
Solution :
P(non occurrence of (Ai)) = 1 (i + 1) = i/(i + 1).
P(non occurrence of any of events)

ud

yS

1
1 2 n

= . . . .
.

2 3 n 1 n 1

Page 21 of 25

St

Example 5 :
A bag contains a large number of white and black marbles in equal proportions. Two samples of 5
marbles are selected (with replacement) at random. The probability that the first sample contains
exactly 1 black marble, and the second sample contains exactly 3 black marbles, is
25
15
(a)
(b)
512
32
15
35
(c)
(d)
256
1024
Solution :
Let the number of marble be 2n (where n is large)
Required probability = nlim

= nlim

n n C 4
2n

C5

n n n 1 n 2 n 3
4!

C3 n C 2
2n

C5

n n 1 n 2
3!

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n n 1
2!

52 2n 5!

2n!2

Probability

n 4 n 1 n 2
3

= nlim

n 3 2n 5 !
2
3!2! 2n!

50.n 4 n 1 n 2

n 3
n 2n 2n 1 2n 2 2n 3 2n 4 2

= lim

5 5 4 3!

50
25

.
1024 512

Example 6 :
If two events A and B are such that P A = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4 and A B = 0.5, then

P B / A B =

1
5
2
(d)
5
(b)

P B A B

te

ps

P A B
P A B
P(A) P(A B)

=
P(A) P(B) P(A B)
0.7 0.6 0.5

.in

B
P
=
A B
1
(a)
4
3
(c)
5
Solution :

0.7 0.5 1
.
0.8
4

yS

ud

Example 7 :
A is a set containing n elements. A subset P1 of A is chosen at random. The set A is reconstructed by

St

replacing the elements of P1. A subset P2 is again chosen at random. The probability that P1 P2 contains
exactly one element, is
(a)

3n

(b)

4n

3n
4n

3
(d) none of these
4
Solution :
Any element of A has four possibilities : element belongs to (i) both P1 and P2
(ii) neither P1 nor P2 (iii) P1 but not to P2 (iv) P2 but not to P1. Thus n(S) = 4n. For the favourable
cases, we choose one element in n ways and this element has three choices as (i), (iii) and (iv), while
the remaining n 1 elements have one choice each, namely (ii).
(c)

Hence required probability =

3n
4n

Example 8 :
The probability that in a group of N (< 365)people, at least two will have the same birthday is

Page 22 of 25

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Probability

365!
(a) 1 365 N ! 365 !

(c) 1

(b)

365 N 365 !
365 N !

365 N 365 !
365 N ! 1

(d) none of these

Solution :
Let A be the event of different birthdays. Each can have birthday in 365 ways, so N persons can
have their birthdays in 365N ways. Number of ways in which all have different birthdays = 365PN

P(A) 1 P A 1

365

PN

365

365!
365 365 N ! .
N

Example 9 :
Let E and F be two independent events such that P(E) > P(F). The probability that both E and F

1
1
, P(F) =
3
4

Solution :

1
12

P E F = P(E) P(F) =

1
1
, P(F) =
6
2

ps

(c) P(E) = 1, P(F) =

(b) P(E) =

(d) none of these

te

(a) P(E) =

.in

1
1
and the probability that neither E nor F happens is , then
12
2

1
12

1
2

. . . (i)

ud

c
c
c
c
P E F P E .P F

yS

happen is

1
2

St

1 P E 1 P F

. . . (ii)

Solving (i) and (ii), we get P(E) =

1
1
& P(F) , as P(E) > P(F).
2
4

Example 10:
A draw two cards at random from a pack of 52 cards. After returning them to the pack and
shuffling it, B draws two cards at random. The probability that there is exactly one common card,
is
(a)

5
546

25
663
Solution :

Page 23 of 25

(c)

(b)

50
663

(d) none of these

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Probability

Let S be the sample space and let E be the required event, then n(S) =

52

C2

. For the number of

2

elements in E, we first choose a card (which we want common) and then from the remaining cards (51
in numbers) we choose two cards and distribute them among A and B in 2! ways. Hence n (E) = 52C1.
51

C2. 2!. Thus P(E) =

50
.
663

Example 11: :
A company has two plants to manufacture televisions. Plant I manufacture 70% of televisions and
plant II manufacture 30%. At plant I, 80% of the televisions are rated as of standard quality and at
plant II, 90% of the televisions are rated as of standard quality. A television is chosen at random
and is found to be of standard quality. The probability that it has come from plant II is
(a)

17
50

(b)

27
83

3
(d) none of these
5
Solution :
Let E be the event that a television chosen randomly is of standard quality. We have to find
P E / II .P(II)

P(II/E) = P E / I .P I P E / II .P II

ps

.in

(c)

yS

te

9 /10 3 /10
= 4 / 5 7 /10 9 /10 3 /10 27 / 83

C2 30 C2

20

(a)

50

19

(c)

St

ud

Example 12:
x1, x2, x3, . . . , x50 are fifty real numbers such that xr < xr + 1 for r = 1, 2, 3, . . ., 49. Five numbers out
of these are picked up at random. The probability that the five numbers have x20 as the middle number
is
(b)

C5

C2 31 C3
50

30

C2 19 C2
50

C5

(d) none of these

C5

Solution :
n(S) = 50C5 = Total number of ways
n(E) = 30C2 19C2 = Number of favourable ways
30

P(E) =

C2 19 C2
50

C5

Example 13 :
If the integers m and n are chosen at random from 1 to 100, then the probability that a number of
the form 7n + 7m is divisible by 5 equals

Page 24 of 25

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Probability

(a)

1
4

(b)

1
2

1
(d) none of these
8
Solution :
We observe that 71, 72, 73 and 74 ends in 7, 9, 3 and 1 respectively. Thus 7l ends in 7, 9, 3 or 1
according as l is of the form 4k + 1, 4k + 2, 4k 1 or 4k respectively. If S is the sample space, then
n (S) = (100)2. 7m + 7n is divisible by 5 if (i) m is of the form 4k + 1 and n is of the form
4k 1 or (ii) m is of the form 4k + 2 and n is of the form 4k or (iii) m is of the form 4k 1 and n is
of the form 4k + 1 or (iv) m is of the form 4k and n is of the form 4k + 1.
(c)

Thus number of favourable ordered pairs (m, n) = 4 25 25 . Hence required probability is

Example 14 :
The probability that a man can hit a target is

3
. He tries 5 times. The probability that he will hit the
4

291
364

471
502
Solution :

(d)

459
512

te

(c)

yS

3
1
,q , n 5
4
4

ud

P=

371
461

ps

(b)

.in

target at least three times is

(a)

St

459
3 1 5 3 1 5 3
Required probability = 5C3 C4 . C5 =
.
512
4 4
4 4
4
Example 15 :
A die is thrown 7 times. The chance that an odd number turns up at least 4 times, is

(a)

1
4

(b)

1
8
Solution :
For at least 4 successes, required probability

Page 25 of 25

(c)

1
.
4

1
2

(d) none of these

4
3
5
2
6
1
17
1 1 7 1 1 7 1 1 7
1
= 7C4 2 2 C5 2 2 C6 2 2 C7 2 = .



2

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