Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Core Political Data

11.03.2016

2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be
disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

2016 Ipsos

IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS

Core Political Data

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted
for

date
October 29- November 2, 2016

For the survey,

including

a sample of

2,708
Americans

1,228

934

329

Democrats Republicans Independents

ages
2,357

1,858

Registered
voters

Likely
voters

18+

were interviewed online

2016 Ipsos

IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS

Core Political Data

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.
In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points

2.1

3.2

3.7

6.2

2.3

2.6

for all adults

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Registered
voters

Likely
voters

For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

2016 Ipsos

IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS

Core Political Data

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:
Gender

Age
Education
Ethnicity
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.

All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to
coverage error and measurement error.
Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than
one half of one per cent.
Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit:
http://polling.reuters.com/

2016 Ipsos

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Right Direction/Wrong Track

Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the
right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

11%

25%

3% 11%

13%

13%

12%

Right Direction
Wrong Track

All Adults

Dont Know

43%

Republicans

Independents

44%

64%

2016 Ipsos

Democrats

86%

74%

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Main Problem Facing America

In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
Total

Democrat

Republican

Independent

Economy generally
Unemployment / lack of jobs
War / foreign conflicts

19%
12%
4%

19%
12%
4%

22%
13%
3%

19%
11%
7%

Immigration

6%

4%

8%

4%

Terrorism / terrorist attacks

Healthcare
Energy issues
Morality
Education
Crime
Environment
Dont know
Other

15%
12%
1%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
6%

14%
14%
2%
3%
8%
7%
6%
2%
5%

18%
11%
0%
8%
4%
3%
2%
2%
5%

14%
10%
0%
6%
4%
4%
6%
6%
9%

2016 Ipsos

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Main Problem Facing America

Economy Generally
45%

Unemployment / jobs

40%

Healthcare
Terrorism

35%

Immigration

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

2012

2016 Ipsos

2013

2014

2015

2016

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Barack Obama
Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama
is handling his job as President?
Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected approve or disapprove)
Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected dont know)

Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Lean towards approve
Lean towards disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
TOTAL APPROVE
TOTAL DISAPPROVE

2016 Ipsos

Total

Democrat

Republican

Independent

29%
19%
2%
2%
11%
31%
4%
51%
45%

54%
29%
3%
1%
6%
6%
1%
86%
13%

7%
9%
1%
1%
17%
64%
0%
18%
82%

16%
20%
4%
4%
14%
34%
9%
40%
52%

0%
JAN 1-7, 2012
JAN 22-28, 2012
FEB 12-18, 2012
MAR 4-MAR 10, 2012
MAR 25-31, 2012
APR 15-21, 2012
MAY 6-12, 2012
MAY 27-JUN 2, 2012
JUN 17-23, 2012
JUL 8-14, 2012
JUL 29-AUG 4, 2012
AUG 19-25, 2012
SEPT 10-15, 2012
SEPT 30-OCT 6, 2012
OCT 21-27, 2012
NOV 11-17, 2012
DEC 2-8, 2012
DEC 23-29, 2012
JAN 8-14, 2013
JAN 29-FEB 4, 2013
FEB 19-25, 2013
MAR 12-18, 2013
APR 2-8, 2013
APR 23-29, 2013
MAY 14-20, 2013
JUN 4-10, 2013
JUN 25-JUL 1, 2013
JUL 16-22, 2013
AUG 6-12, 2013
AUG 27-SEPT 2, 2013
SEPT 17-23, 2013
OCT 8-14, 2013
OCT 29-NOV 4, 2013
NOV 19-25, 2013
DEC 10-16, 2013
DECEMBER 31, 2013
JAN 15-21, 2014
FEB 5-11, 2014
FEB 26-MAR 4, 2014
MAR 19-25, 2014
APR 9-15, 2014
APR 30-MAY 6, 2014
MAY 21-27, 2014
JUN 11-17, 2014
JUL 2-8, 2014
JUL 23-29, 2014
AUG 13-19, 2014
SEPT 3-9, 2014
SEPT 24-30, 2014
OCT 15-21, 2014
NOV 5-11, 2014
NOV 26-DEC 1, 2014
DEC 17-23, 2014
JAN 8-14, 2015
JAN 29-FEB 4, 2015
FEB. 19-25, 2015
MARCH 12-18, 2015
APRIL 2-8, 2015
APRIL 23-29, 2015
MAY 21-27, 2015
JUN 11- JUN 17, 2015
JULY 1-JULY 7, 2015
JULY 22- JULY 28, 2015
AUG 12- AUG 18, 2015
SEPT 3-9, 2015
SEPT 24-30, 2015
OCTOBER 15-21, 2015
NOVEMBER 4-10, 2015
NOVEMBER 25-
DECEMBER 16-22, 2015
JAUNARY 6-12, 2016
JANUARY 29-
FEBRUARY 20-24, 2016
MARCH 11-15, 2016
APRIL 2-APRIL 6, 2016
APRIL 22-26, 2016
MAY 13-17, 2016
JUNE 4-8, 2016
JUNE 25-29, 2016
JULY 16-20, 2016
AUG 6-AUG 10, 2016
AUGUST 25-29, 2016
SEPT 15-19, 2016
OCT 6- OCT 10, 2016
OCT 29- NOV 2, 2016

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Weekly Approval

70%

60%

51%

50%

45%

40%

30%

20%

Total Approve

Total Disapprove

10%

* Starting June 1st, 2016, this slide will reflect data from the same five-day field period as the rest of this report.
Previously, this chart was based off of a seven-day roll-up.

2016 Ipsos

LIKELY VOTERS / REGISTERED VOTERS

Trump / Clinton Head-to-Head

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as
below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=2,357 and likely voters, n=1,858)

Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

Donald Trump (Republican)
Other
Wouldnt Vote
Dont know / Refused

Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

Donald Trump (Republican)
Other
Wouldnt Vote
Dont know / Refused

2016 Ipsos

Likely
Voters (LV)

Democrats
(LV)

Republicans
(LV)

Independents
(LV)

45%
39%
7%
3%
5%

85%
7%
4%
2%
3%

9%
81%
7%
1%
2%

24%
36%
23%
8%
8%

Registered
Voters (RV)

Democrats
(RV)

Republicans
(RV)

Independents
(RV)

45%
38%
9%
3%
5%

83%
8%
4%
2%
3%

9%
80%
7%
1%
2%

25%
32%
27%
7%
8%

10

LIKELY VOTERS / REGISTERED VOTERS

Four-Way Ballot Head-to-Head

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as
below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=2,357 and likely voters, n=1,858)

Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

Donald Trump (Republican)
Gary Johnson (Libertarian)
Jill Stein (Green)
Other
Wouldnt Vote
Dont know / Refused

Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

Donald Trump (Republican)
Gary Johnson (Libertarian)
Jill Stein (Green)
Other
Wouldnt Vote
Dont know / Refused
2016 Ipsos

Likely
Voters (LV)

Democrats
(LV)

Republicans
(LV)

Independents
(LV)

45%
37%
5%
2%
2%
3%
5%

84%
6%
3%
2%
1%
2%
2%

9%
78%
6%
1%
3%
1%
2%

23%
34%
14%
6%
6%
6%
10%

Registered
Voters (RV)

Democrats
(RV)

Republicans
(RV)

Independents
(RV)

45%
36%
6%
4%
3%
2%
4%

82%
6%
3%
3%
1%
2%
3%

9%
78%
6%
2%
3%
1%
2%

24%
29%
15%
11%
9%
4%
8%
11

1/6/16
1/13/16
1/20/16
1/27/16
2/3/16
2/10/16
2/17/16
2/24/16
3/2/16
3/9/16
3/16/16
3/23/16
3/30/16
4/6/16
4/13/16
4/20/16
4/27/16
5/4/16
5/11/16
5/18/16
5/25/16
6/1/16
6/8/16
6/15/16
6/22/16
6/29/16
7/6/16
7/13/16
7/20/16
7/27/16
8/3/16
8/10/16
8/17/16
8/24/16
8/31/16
9/7/16
9/14/16
9/21/16
9/28/16
10/5/16
10/12/16
10/19/16
10/26/16
11/2/16
11/9/16
1/6/16
1/13/16
1/20/16
1/27/16
2/3/16
2/10/16
2/17/16
2/24/16
3/2/16
3/9/16
3/16/16
3/23/16
3/30/16
4/6/16
4/13/16
4/20/16
4/27/16
5/4/16
5/11/16
5/18/16
5/25/16
6/1/16
6/8/16
6/15/16
6/22/16
6/29/16
7/6/16
7/13/16
7/20/16
7/27/16
8/3/16
8/10/16
8/17/16
8/24/16
8/31/16
9/7/16
9/14/16
9/21/16
9/28/16
10/5/16
10/12/16
10/19/16
10/26/16
11/2/16
11/9/16

REGISTERED VOTERS

General Election Candidate Favorability

Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures?

(Data Collected in 2016)

70%

DONALD TRUMP

60%

50%

55% Unfavorable

40%

45% Favorable

30%

70%

HILLARY CLINTON

60%

50%

51% Favorable
49% Unfavorable

40%

30%

2016 Ipsos

12

LIKELY VOTERS / REGISTERED VOTERS

Congressional Head-to-Head
In 2016, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the
Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for U.S. Congress in your district
where you live?
(Asked of registered voters, n=2,357 and likely voters, n=1,858)

42%
41%

Democrats
(LV)
82%
6%

Republicans
(LV)
3%
88%

Independents
(LV)
25%
30%

4%

2%

3%

11%

3%
11%

2%
8%

1%
5%

7%
26%

Registered Voters
(RV)
43%
39%

Democrats
(RV)
83%
6%

Republicans
(RV)
3%
88%

Independents
(RV)
27%
25%

5%

2%

3%

19%

2%
10%

2%
7%

1%
4%

6%
24%

Likely Voters (LV)

Democratic Candidate
Republican Candidate
Candidate from Another
Party
Will not/do not plan to vote
Dont know / Refused

Democratic Candidate
Republican Candidate
Candidate from Another
Party
Will not/do not plan to vote
Dont know / Refused
2016 Ipsos

13

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Political Identity
Strong Democrat

17%

Moderate Democrat

20%

Lean Democrat

6%

Lean Republican

6%

Moderate Republican

16%

Strong Republican

13%

Independent
None of these
DK

Party ID
Party ID w/ Lean

14%
5%
3%

Democrat

37%

Republican

29%

Democrat

43%

Republican

35%

Independent
None/DK

14%
8%

All Adults: n= 2,708

2016 Ipsos

14

APPENDIX

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the
parameter \, i.E., Y|~bin(n,), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number
of yes, or 1, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ) is a natural estimate of the true
population proportion . This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept
in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior
distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution.
The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for adjusted
after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is ones knowledge base updated
using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior
distribution is also a beta distribution ((/y)~(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
Our credibility interval for is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals
represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for given our updated knowledge base.
There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on (/y). Since we want only one measure
of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we
will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs
when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the
normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

2016 Ipsos

15

APPENDIX

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

FOR THIS POLL
The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to
account for complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below:

Ipsos does not publish data

for base sizes
(sample sizes) below 100.

SAMPLE SIZE

CREDIBILITY
INTERVALS

2,000
1,500
1,000
750
500
350
200
100

2.5
2.9
3.5
4.1
5.0
6.0
7.9
11.2

1 Bayesian
2 Kish,

Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003
L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

2016 Ipsos

16

ABOUT IPSOS

GAME CHANGERS

Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos
employs more than 16,000 people and has the
ability to conduct research programs in more
than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975,
Ipsos is controlled and managed by research
professionals. They have built a solid Group
around a multi-specialist positioning Media
and advertising research; Marketing research;
Client and employee relationship management;
Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online,
Offline data collection and delivery.

At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people, markets,

brands and society. We deliver information and analysis
that makes our complex world easier and faster to navigate
and inspires our clients to make smarter decisions.

Ipsos is listed on Eurolist NYSE Euronext.

The company is part of the SBF 120 and the
Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred
Settlement Service (SRD).

We believe that our work is important. Security, simplicity,

speed and substance applies to everything we do.
Through specialisation, we offer our clients a unique depth
of knowledge and expertise. Learning from different
experiences gives us perspective and inspires us to boldly
call things into question, to be creative.
By nurturing a culture of collaboration and curiosity, we
attract the highest calibre of people who have the ability
and desire to influence and shape the future.
GAME CHANGERS our tagline summarises our ambition.

ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA,

Bloomberg IPS:FP
www.ipsos.com

2016 Ipsos

17