JAG

Models in planning:
changing roles
Michael

KEYWORDS:

Spatial Analysis, University College London,

definitions,

computer

transportation,

models,

public

urban

urban

models,

form,

1-19 Torrington

land

Before

symbolically

GIS, 3-dimensional

complex

data sets could be routinely

systems suddenly

ever,

begin

the

idea of a model

Models are everywhere.

has the drawing

power

architectural

changed.

Before

representations

models domrnated

It once did.

came to dominate

the

focus is once more on traditional

models of three-dimensional

1980s and

the

1990s.

representatrons

form,

form.

hitherto.

of modelling

and suggest that new kinds of

as any is contained

Herbert

Simon
of

[I 9821, and finally

Models

WHAT

ARE MODELS?

ture

of

[I9211

reality

WHAT

[Paragraph

Logico-Philosophicus]

A model

2.12,

suggests

page

that

the

model

is rooted

in the philosophy

entific

method.

Yet it was not until

idea of a model
then

began

cation

rather

than

to

develop

good

into fashion
was

computing
be actually
tions

built

of model

of reality,

as well

as prototypical

of reality

pace as a vehicle

and

applications

and social sciences.

America
into

exploration,

the

19651.

where

various
and

and

operated
designs

large

business.

the notion

better

faith

to

that

make

Echenique

came

model

projects

in

model

in

resentation

252

itself

in an article

used
In fact

in a technibased.

characteristic

some 30 years ago, says: A

of a reality,

of the observed

as well

in
the

using

is being

language.

its usage was broadly

is made by the expression

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clearly

through

are being written

term

or

applications

example

professional

for definition

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the reality

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or may exist

systems.

books

planning,

ity consists of objects

predic-

of complex

has come to

it first came to be used generally

characteristics

could

while

in everyday

of our concern

Advances
better

for a variety

title

for

all

of simplifications

can be seen quite

planning

and fewer

cal sense within

in science

models

This trend

regional

even when

on which

in countless
The term

and

increasingly

to its use in the 1960s as

gathered
theory

[Lowry,

inventions.

to hold

itself

pictures

fact that fewer

was as a simplifi-

the term
range

urban

being
process

to the most routine.

its power

possible

and

of

his autobiography

the widest

the

too accelerated

and even

and in sci-

it has lessened

and

translated

space

of science

before

while

Discovery

19891, Models

describe

in science,

first in North

officially

defence,

Tractatus

successively
of

widespread,

from the most abstract

as its use has broadened,

1950s that

ascribed

areas of the physical

8,

basic idea of a

were

types of human

Indeed

the

a picture

the idea of a model

is a pic-

to be used widely

the classic definition

This was the meaning

or operation,

IS MODELLING?

early definition

in the

of My Life.

has become

many different

a symbol

economist-psy-

Models

[ 1979 and

in 1991 entitled

used to describe

books

[I 9571,

of Thought

Rationality

published

whose

Man

Since the 197Os, the term

Wittgensteins

in busi-

of these times

Models

or

edge of quan-

systems theory

of the imagery

Bounded

synthesis are now possible.

the cutting

of the eminent

be

designed

Indeed as good

[ 19771, Models

in urban

thence

and

might

and government.

called:

in
but

human

systems

ness, defence,

chologist

In

and technology
in the

and

social science and complex

works

about
seemed

less glamorous

complex

came to symbolise

did, how-

as scientists

more formally

especially

controlled

ver-

simplifica-

years, the word

of science

domains,

titles of the various

a move back to

physical planning

development

research during the last half century,

But now the

of cities as digital

thus heralding

the iconic models that had dominated

we review

physical

its

the 1960s and 1970s. data mod-

lexicon

understanding

The idea that

hence

restructured
titative

1950, models of cities

of

complex

down

of course

to think

power

for

sciences.

modelled,

However for city systems, the role of mod-

els has been dramatically

Mathematical

policy

have pervaded every corner of our world, the

no longer

up the
tools

equally

as it was to any funda-

were

academic

began

was used for its

scaled

sense. The term

systems. In the post-war

providing

of complex systems in science or

which
physical

to enter

model

reflected

but in a literal,

to conjure

came of age.

reaching the point where large

manipulated

mental shift in our understanding

society. As computers

the term

which

tions

complex

entered the lexicon in the 1960s when the idea of

representing

paper,

purpose

sions of the real thing

participation

This was as much due to computers

this

the mid-century,

and social scientists

The term model

els then

and

Place, London WC1 E 6BT. UK (e-mail: m.battyQucl.ac.uk)

traditional

ABSTRACT

meant

imperatives

- Issue 3 - 2001

Batty

Centre for Advanced

use,

technological

Volume

reality

in which
of certain
and where

or systems that exist,

1641. His focus

as the model

relevant
the real-

have existed,

on what

broadens

the rep-

constitutes

this to include

Models planning

past

JAG

as well

as future

unknowable,

al to the fictional,
In this paper,
history

from

before

Wegener,
in terms
how

[Harris,

attitudes

respect

to their

themes

that

changing
involved
thinking

practices
the
of

fourth

the

involves

their

tools

tangible

to inform

have

ones.

while

what

where

the

with

organise

beginning

with

first

this

and inter-

a brief summary

introduced

high

point

that

by then,

their

into planning

was reached

as they

MITs

practical

duced.

application

have

Media

We will then

itself,

recount

picking

up on the

new

developments

spurred

in analysis

idea of abstract

historical

perspective

functioning

had

revolution

has continued,

been

earlier

representing

thus forcing

in the physical

of abstraction
to the

from

model
those

for the emphasis

pluralism

also

now

dominates

much expanded

intro-

was rooted

various
kinds

to a wider

into

of cities

is more on pedagogic
the field.

as models

The planners

emphasising

researchers
at
go back to
planning

can

years. As noted,

models

the

of cities and their

to developments

in systems theo-

economics,

social

physics

and

years, but the shift in thinking

such

in these

models

years were

of transportation
to land

applications

through

in the

the

followed

ments

its

did

not

location

are

with

and these
urban

wave

of

programme

physics

net-

geoning
early

separate

land

but

began

very

nevertheless

about

of

regional

were

invented,

thetr

Almost
prime

Cities and their

transport

dates for these

new technologies.

box is
as

253

activities
as

by the applicaproblems

which

- social

up in the
provided
element

as soon as digital

tool

ele-

economics

burthe
relat-

computers

focus was to provide

for intensive

computation

essential

from

The second

use. A new

high-

those years.

how urban

to be tied

science

foundations.

studies

had fashioned

complemented

came

was

First for more than

of researchers

but were

ed to computation.

1960s

representation

during

possible.

theories

- all of which
field

195Os,

was that

use-transport

in cities. These ideas emerged

intellectual

quickly

In the

planner

tion of classical physics to geographical

to

the begin-

were

of the massive federal

that

a succession

theory

in North

of land use, and this message

series of rudimentary
located

associated

of the

made such modelling

50 years,

emerged

its prediction.

in the wake

Two completely
is

New kinds
which

dominate

which

studies,

use and

is a function

way building

realisti-

developed,

the field

America

to

and better

of representation

are being

marked

mathematical

which

At the same trme, new kinds of

that

The first

traffic

for

link the digital

public

by

models

post-war

presages

but rarely

to reconsider

interfaces

which

one of the watchwords

more

of cities.
now

called

in usage in urban

within

revolution

and currently

again

but

until the 1950s.

extended

As the computer

rapidly

cities

nings

and less ambitious

which

up these

but

begin

in a concern

systems

once

through

communications.

mathematical
different

computer

representation

have emerged

opening

professionals
worked

the field

real world

only

were
argue

been

the quest for better

fast toward

roots

had

assumed.

materials

of

years. The

in representation,

has grown

cally,

about

have dominated

culminating

representation

moving

not

the

data for more pragmatic

ends than
digital

way

ethereal

versions

toys - the toys of

iconic

mathematical

mathematics

way,

how the field withdrew

and simulation,

manipulating

since

represent-

scaled-down

been

Lab. Traditional

our

1960s and we will

ever

imagination.

from traditional

but the change

ry,

most of the key ideas that

at the heart

but with

of the same - digital

to the immediate

in the post-war

in the

visual

publics

materials

we see manufactured

be traced

of the way models

from

is upon

of the city being

tangible

prehistory

in a straightforward

produced

(http:Nwww.media.mit.eduAoysAotweb/index.html)

in planning.

paper

used in architec-

emphasis

Our icons are no longer

versions

within

is that we have now come full

much else in the inter-war

We will

model

image of a scale model

at least in the

using models

a balanced

term

and traditionally

the same features

tomorrow

use, the role of abstract

provide

the

extensively

one of our themes

digital

in

design,

mainstream,

ed no longer

involves

TRANSPORTA-

In a way, this usage still remains

circle with

in

already,

up the popular

materials

Indeed,

USE AND

environment,

and urban

of the

more

be involved

concerns

In con-

together,

UP TO THE 1960s

conjures

appearance.

not only plan-

might

their

- model

role of models

- the

even theory

to which

themes

and some speculation.

implied

urban

four

of abstraction,

and clients

so that we might

on the wider

planning

exploit
we

have

of the
ture

have become

thinking,
data as models, and participation
- involve ideas that we will weave into
analysis

in
and

with

theme

the field.

all these

LAND

MODELLING

As we

50 years ago was rarely

the extent

ests These four themes

IN THE BEGINNING:

the way those

task. A third

characterise

draw

a synthesis

TION

models

briefly

1994;

change

model

perhaps

any form

publics

abstract

to

involves

in planning

we will

many

of them,

One of these

term

abstractions,

as being

theme

ners but

field.

role of data which

about

clusion,

this history

of what

continue

the planning

the changing
thought

well as process and design

Volume 3 - issue 3 - 2001

the

Batty,

expect

but a second theme

about

to recount

use. In this sense, we will

with

is

attempting

1979;

perceptions

in using models

comfortable

Batty,

we might

characterise

noted

future

the factu-

19981 but to review

significance

already

using

1968;

what

and

from

for this has been done

of the changing
are for,

as the

is not merely

modelling

1994; Wilson,

planning

and
extends

science to design.

our concern

of urban

times

systems,

this use of models

vehicles

In science and then commerce.

systems

provided

prime

candi-

Models planning

The final
ming

ingredient

in the

growing
and

JAG

that

set the world

1960s was the

and restructuring

more

renewal

mobile,

took

policy

as populations

while

problems

on a new urgency.

of the answer

to getting

stituted

were

Several

because computation
were

adversely

conceived

but the singly

were

[Brewer,

were

built

understanding

were

unintelligible

produced

Lee [I9731

a fairly

such complexity.

zones formed

This immediately

of differdecade.

morassed

often

summed

for Large-Scale

All
the

ed with

of data

changing
solved.
what

while

remain

making

the

wanted

was being

seemed

doomed

models

were

mirroring

our

directly

was their

Many

our

models

developers

ceived

of as being

attempted
ed with

or its generalisation

to such spatial

how

between

transportation

modelling

ed to reproduce
comparative
of what
look
model

this

of a future
that were

most often

and

if their

would

even

simply

um. After

return

with

held the key

in the

sectors.

interaction

els [Hill,
which

dynamics

and thence

populations

handled

in a more
models

crete

time

from

those

such as Lowrys

models

not on simulating

of

1960s.

from

these

and has influenced

obvious

models

in wider
structo be

to operating

structure
They

over dis-

is little

are

still

different
static

and

the fact that

they

many sectors and many other

1974;

was

to embrace

demographic

notwithstanding

[Wilson,

The second
of

the

model

Developments
discrete

if any

during

that

attempted

to

Batty,

still

modelled,

kinds of

19761.

pretty

spatial

largely

equilibri-

spatial

Pittsburgh

the existing

non-linear
model.

resents

city system

within

urban
ning

but on opti-

254

wider

but their

a synthesis

misation.

based

space

and the

views

of the

Such models
and

based on

have

in mirroring

their

aggregate

real

cousins

19851. The third type of model

but through
given

both

the

the notion

had

always

the policy

idea of providing

as

structures

performance

between

Optimisation

modelling

and time

behaviour

model

than

pref-

although

and thus have consider-

of spatial

has been worse

disaggregative

explicitly

Models

tuning

[Ben Akiva & Lerman,

structures

interaction

to treat

process,

disequilibrium.

microsimulation,

one class of mod-

to this. Such models,

are able

finer

the idea of

to economic

city as a system in perpetual

much

individuals.

around

linked

contemporary

been embedded

to get

modelling

disaggregation
into

for supporting

allow

such as the EMPlRlC in which

formed

static,

of the choice

true

cities

is strongly

are central

able potential

much the same for

involved

defining

in transport

theory

attributes

these

of model
units

choice which

erence

for it was assumed

were

to those

type

spatial

produced

in kind.

was implicit

[I9641

but their

flow

devel-

way. As part of this, some

intervals
in form,

to

later

and employments

generalised

the

it is important

The most

and

integrated

were

in

We will

came to be nested

enabled

issues

resided

emerged

of these

tures which

such

policy

worked.

complements
degrees.

always

which

to address

approaches

These models

of these

effort

under

conditioned

economic

spatial

used in

at one level, they just seemed

to

form of cities.

this early

experience

aspatial

state of the city might

the city to a static,

19651 in contrast

attempted

which

in and entrust-

the future

actually

and

behaviour
spatial

Thus they

but the real critique

cities

extension

can now deal with

in social physics and

change

no real differences

Linear econometric

how

to different

aggregative

for-

in or at least near equilibrium

all, cities had looked

100 years or more;

bigger

Few

of urban

that cities were

thus

in time.

to make one shot predictions

assumption.

the dynamics

models

in space based on dis-

situation,

static fashion,

made

abstract.

- then models could be calibrat-

like. All the models

time

static,

in the way they

interested

point,

downfall

of

each of which

spatial

- land uses - locat-

concept

the existing

the equilibrium

other

to

con-

If one could develop

activities

aggregative,

the conditions

Three distinct

involved

been

cities were

as accessibility

- the key organising

physical

on the ground

Their failure

this early

opments.

are

as now

at a cross section

interdependence.

mal relationships
tance

then

and thus these

how activities

respect to one another

Distance

issue has all but

in equilibrium

to simulate

into

from

to this later but for the moment

note

models,
they

vantage

built.

ignorance

return

and

in their

Models.

In essence,

but rather

about

represented.

away

were

from those

at

and traffic

of abstraction

simplistic

to structures

given

such

to this day although

modelled.

cities were

models

models

to loca-

operated

census tracts

in focus,

decisions

on which

fanciful

real issue related

optimising

a level

these

behaviour,

From our current

that the

it all up in his famous

the computation

However

in that

these

remote

the others
Problems

took

hard to relate

made them

behaviourally

was poorly

were

but their

urban

were

economic

introduced

that

planning

more

19721. All these models

and spatial

treated

in

linked
level

In short,

physical

incomplete

policy-makers
crude,

design.

predetermined

as were

the level at which

the process

Data con-

constraints,

the theory

were

aggregate

A flurry

problems

inevitably

which

like part

and problematic.

budget

to anyone

Requiem

[Batty,

of how cities worked.

outputs

implications.

tion decisions

became

to what

was

and

of such efforts

19731. And in parallel,

models

deprivation

remained

biggest

not attuned

poor

paper

by

management

to various

also attempted
which

in many ways.

was expensive

it according
were

based models

in the subsequent

models

affected

organisational
models

made

and many efforts

collection.

goals

in the late 1950s and sev-

was over ambitious

a problem

data

mising

were
richer

looked

known.

styles emerged

eral applications
The effort

of

hum-

Cities
became

Models

to grips with

The story of these years is well

ent modelling

of planning

context.

Volume 3 - Issue 3 - 2001

and

of economic

opti-

been

context
some

rep-

aggregative
a theme
of urban

unification

in

planto the

JAG

Models planning

field

by linking

they might

the way activities

best locate,

senses, this unification

particular

through

elling with
ity

emerged

located

to how

quest.

In many

has actually

the linking

discrete

maximising

actually

was an important

from

of spatial

choice theory

although
these

been accomplished

few

interaction

tical

in

mod-

[Wilson

models

efforts

et al, 19811.

is particularly

approaches
highly

two

these

serious

years,

cities were

conceptualised

efforts

have

of

has now

efforts

quite

19911.

Then

which

there

has been

America

[Echenrque,

tinued

through

than

both

individual
gate

tems

There

model

which

work

years

or

without

such

significant

had

we will

[I 9941 provides

a very

world-wide

which

vides a useful
paper
less

this experience
models

such as

with

cities.
model

will

in fact

Wegener

is. His recent

of cause

subsequent

commentaries

waves of urban

[see for example,

Klosterman

many

the papers

modelling
by Batty,

& Lee in the special

change

groups

such ideas

account

for

example.
cations

In growth

change

to take place, were

Models

OF

on the

conceived

up until the 1990s

a major

255

being

itself.

radically

The idea of

notions

that

models

element

those

as to how
and

radical

cities

allowed

surprising

ecological

models
were

designed

the processes which

by

physics,

in the same way that

noise and variation

novel
scales

paradigm,

non-equilibrium

for

brfur-

or

at different

Interaction

of the 1960s were

within

of cat-

during

of edge

developed

through

This was as much because

of

linear

But in all these cases, the models

to be operational

predecessor

Harris, Wegener,

ideas

than simple

spontaneous

enablrng

ideas

field),

to speculate

ideas from

[I9921

modelling

dynamics

the agenda

119811 in the spatial

and by Dendrinos

frrst and

issue of the /ourna/

paths,

through

shift.

iconoclastic

the

based on structures

The

fundamental

were

In cities such as the growth

chal-

process

through

began

of the newer,

BUT A REAWAKENING

effect

to

and

rules of urban

and mathematics

now

describe

being

time

more

on

the rnabil-

was

energised

and

in smooth

might

based

by the time

choice theory.

in ways other

years and various

chaos theory.
been

on

to deal

such models

his systems

considerably
time

models

with

and chaos came onto

change

INTEREST
have

effects

[ 19691 somewhat

through

in science

astrophe

to deal

the ground

how to treat

by Wilson

There

In

of oper-

In particular,

a somewhat

to change

discontinuities

20011.

DIRECTIONS

more

unable

evident

behavrour

Jay Forresters

space to time

reviewed

are

static

of discrete

models

required

from

Allen [I9971
DIVERGENT

equity,

effects.

ignoring

and to orient

economic

of these

progressions

10 years old, still pro-

we

explicit

failure

about

New

sectoral

by the development

(which

of applications

in the light

that

spatial

was already

lenged

from

1990s.

aggregate

detail

attempt

for

with

his critique.

existing

later.

the action

of

housing

are intrinsically

spatial,

ity to provide

at Harvard,

at Dortmund

other

of spatral

as well as being

Lee [ 1973) presented

deal

but these are one-

summary

nearly

updates

land use and transport

aggre-

early

model

to these

of where

operational

(Wegener,

off

the

to

return

although

measure

efforts

[ZOO01 UrbanSim
good

The disillusion

for particu-

although
by

range

transport

in time.

them.

however

gone

which

ghetto-rsation,

unambiguous

too

rather

and some

Kain

models

have con-

Apart

others,

were

competition

the

applications

and

with

South

sys-

have continued

as Waddells

models

glob-

in these

the first and later generations

sectors and groups

from

such as Wegeners

at Buffalo

efforts

and

with

in the
to post-

has become

not on questions

to associate
if anything,

other

shortcomings,

spun

at Leeds,

amongst

more,

efforts

and Anass
efforts

by Wilson

difficult

doubt

on a narrow

and the like which

analysis

homoge-

- urban growth,

market

and

19891 but the model

have

focused

and renaissance,

- but

being
interac-

industrial

of the

redevelopment

the last

are still

are various

were

The way

and explored

Most

infrastructure

nurtured

all these

in doubt.

to

ational

are not useful

[De La Barra,

at CSIRO,

Individual
off

contexts.

developed

Brotchie

from

they

operational

model

they

also

concerns,

into

grave

from

could be tested

issues from a policy standpoint

of Cambridge

disaggregation

simulation,

and suffer

TRAM-S

Echenique

20

have embraced

became

MEPLAN

that

into

at the

companies

environments

is not to say that

lar problem
the

consulting

(like

short,

in Europe

organised

of

urban

in equilibrium,

and as the economy

was

1983,

19941. Both these efforts

behavioural

and static

which

applied

spin-off

in the university

Although

Lowry-based

over

society

models

[Putman,

at the University

widely

industnal

within

of movement,

have been thrown

from

model

applied

America

areas,

processes

logis-

failure

relevance.

as being

and as being

al. The way policies

field.

be traced

Pittsburgh

widely

is the

by Echenique

in the

of Putnam
can

early

30 years to many cities in North

developed

individuals

to work

which

Lowrys
been

many

the

Pennsylvanra

modification

continued

and location,

the

lay in deeper

and of policy

simple

although

for

institutionalised

last 30 years as we have moved

are really

which

continued

DRAM-EMPAL

of

there

around

neous

1960s are still

19941. All of these

the real difficulties

of theory

3 - Issue 3 - 2001

that

responsrble

become

in questions

tion

these

at least within

world-wide

notwithstanding

are the

University
which

practical

of

and are a part of a new

modelling,

In fact,

who

many

in 1950s and

40 years later,

States.

author)

These

is that

in land use-transport

United

only
the

first developed

significant

impetus
the

important

largely

to

policy-making,

have

Association,

or lesser extent,

issues were

focused
What

~/a~n;~g

to a greater

these

in terms of entropy-utiloperational

insights

the American
argue,

Volume

and
not
their

to be.

constitutes
such models

Models planning

simulate

and hence

focus.

main

JAG

In

deterministic

the

last

occurred

as the focus

physics,

in

processes
with

and

simulated.
generate

properties
systems
urban

outcomes,

critical

model

are currently

these have operational

of the

literature

reveals

[see

Portugali,

levels.

content

associated
for

on the

essence

few

of

Batty

kinds

&

is close in spirit

with

dynamics

urban
are

parallel

and to notions

about

They

1970s the demand

did decline
tematic

although

frameworks

interactions

incorporate

growth

is simulated

lution

growth.

once again.

applications.

urban

are once

application

Dortmund

Europe,

models
through

are being

various

output

processes.

and

In North America,

as Landiss

[I9941

do

Waddells

through

regional

[Schock,

fall within

Model

science

and

2000].

other

traditions

different

focus on urban

sentation
rather

emerging

than

than

pleteness

to

urban

economic

more

to

physical

process,

structure.

to our discussion,

To provide

invoke

are

termed

better
with

that

any model

must track

to most of the models

cant

exceptions,

Carolina
ment
that

Chapin

Weiss,
and

where

process

built.

in particular
the emphasis
as a driver

and

19681 were

in this

such interactions

then

But there

Chapins

satellite

was on the

of urban

growth.

his colleagues
concerned

sense focused

proposed

with

upon

the

the

imagery

have

not

more

traditional

that

as there

driven

by

are explicitthese are

of various

tional

con-

in this newer
where

growth
com-

traffic

and

signifi-

a superb

in the

models

and there

backcloth

depth

and untried

Nevertheless,

cells
are

development,

computed

GIS packages

such as ArcView

lates

growth

(and

starting

in time.
to generate
thus

decline)

with

urban

In Figure
growth

from

development

1, we show
consistent

illustrating

how

the

In Figure 2, we show various

is that

spatial

It takes

data

and it simua set of seed

between

how
with

it

and

interaction

although

explicitly.

desktop

form

256

of

not

over the

diffusion

as differential

from

between

took

in Michigan

sprawl

as well

work.

&

urban

capacity

straints,

process

are developing

Arbor

involving

able

The models

illustrat-

one such model

mechanisms

around

in

for opera-

it is worth

of Ann

with

dangers

models

Batty et a/ [ 1999al
town

for a

associated

are clear

makes use of various

constraints

with

But such models

of this model

points

land develop-

growth

associated

sprawl.

has been substantial

sites consistent

in North

[Chapin

data

raster based data such as

developed

for the

models.

last 20 years. One of the features

fields

was central
were

grid-space

and

provides

tradition.

there

their

incidental.

is that they are closely con-

of urban

purposes.

such a model

much

traditional
In fact,

ing the state of the art at this time with

are

are

their

is largely

or

functionality

such untested

policy

models

ideas

cell-space

which

been

developing

a rather

growth

way

urban

the strict limits of CA, and hence they

study of the dynamics

these.

effort

that

and being

than

GIS, particularly

such

some

the idea that land use generated

mor-

processes

with various

interaction.

automata

They rarely

interactions
In the 1960s

in

growth

on spatial

cellular

contemporary

to repre-

we need to identify

any

presence

urban

one

modelling

geared

being

in cities,

in such models,

structured

based

to

(CUFj,

there

these

the

transportation

growth,

ways,

main advantages

Most of

seek to provide

contain

driving

in the

sistent

established

which

both

One of their

the traditions

back in the 1950s and 1960s but interestingly,

These

are

dynamics

interaction

and

evaluation

and a series of variants

build on these are being applied

these types of model

being

efforts

Futures

not

spatial

pragmatically

appeal

in terms of

to

modelling

Urban

[ZOOO] UrbanSim,

link

20001.
that

as a process of diffusion

diffusion

counterparts

DRAM-

with

projects

their

other

California

system-

TRANUS

consistent

Europe-wide

media

more

still at the core of such

made

ideas

and noise.

In many

of urban

the

MEPLAN,

the

through

to get to grips

of pol-

again

with

America

cities in terms of their physical

processes at work

of local

straints

new ecologi-

of the impacts

models

for

in

by new road build-

set against

and predictions

In

and

Federal mandates

generated

of sprawl

considered

another

use-transport

to assess the impact

EMPAL and MEPLAN frameworks

data

land

raised the need for some large-scale

Traditional

seriously

with

[I9941
efforts

ideas which

[Schock,

to

that takes place. Insofar

ones

municipalities

atic assessment

the growth

for dealing

the problem

cal concerns

models

ly dynamical

on local communities

ing while

urban

concerns

original

Survey

of treating

generally

which

by the late 1980s. the need for sys-

was evident

the US required

for operational

in North

closer

new ways

current

automata

and sprawl

much

growth

is in the spate of urban

US Geological

also
for

phology.

with

the

different

modelling

to Chapins

mushroomed

of

within

senses, Landiss

based on cellular

of the

a function

for

strongly

types of infrastructure
In the

concern
In some

suddenly

developed

1994;

This

the efforts

if any of

Longley,

accessibility

a much closer

models

20001.

being

and

sprawl.

models

kinds of

of efforts

growth

resonates

urban

growth
have

city.

time

although

or focus as a brief review

these

the

CUF model

system

different

explored,

with

example,

way

of

involving

local

time,

infrastructure

through
up

up, and on the way

many

being

parts

and

way

Such is the

and although

in social

processes

on the

through

physical

agents and actors are

the bottom

theory

place

has

This is bound

focus

from

maintain

complexity

individual

global

emerge

to ideas

of urban

Such models

twist

far-from-equilibrium

imply.

disaggregation

states to the point where

actions

back

the

such signatures

yet further

being

in

are not the

a further

has moved

scaling

that

outcomes

decade,

Volume 3 - issue 3 - 2001

the

capacity

models
scenarios

two

model

is

con-

dynamics
for growth

1990 and 1995 from the set of seed sites which

the development

from

1985 to 1990.

Models planning

In a paper

such as this, it is not possible

any of the models

illustrate

actually

developing

software

widespread

exploration

the software
the

shift

that

from

occurred

in the last 40 years in

data

which

can

of new

model

forms.

we have developed

simulation

been a sea change

to

in the

towards

which

has

as there

has

representation

it to say that

of cities that we currently

cy while

that

which

ly timely

of the field

review

conclusion

approaches

that

policy

REPRESENTATION:

respect

more

poii-

most represent

A particularto operational

by Schock

Agency

based on GIS might

able for urban

of urban

popular.

provided

Protection

are

respect to what

we require

with

been

for the Environmental

the

with

is no longer

has recently

to draw

the mathematical

have been explored

way of thinking
modelling

but

have at our disposal

cities and what

those

tack

representation

in the millennium,

they are inconsistent

about

through

we will change

in spatial

models

we know

of

representation

suffice

not very good,

for

Moreover,

last 20 years,

digital

this revolution

be used

is characteristic

and GIS. In the next section,

and examine

how

Figures 1 and 2

although

come

and

in this field

graphics

work

far we have

how

to present

[ZOO01

but it is hard not

modest,

data-driven

in many ways be prefer-

analysis.

MODELS

AS DATA

AND

THE GIS

REVOLUTION
The problems

that

led to the demise

tion of urban models

produced

ting edge to urban planning

inability

to deal with

nature

of computer

changing

computer

technology

development

would

of large-scale

enshrined

rn the history
power

were
during

the

the

applications

prietary

and ported

els were conspicuous

became

on a chip

be a problem

models.

Moores

of miniaturisation,
roughly

predominant

1980s when

models

197Os, it was clear that

198Os, graphics

tion software
form

late

(and memory)

and by the

becoming

of urban

never again

computer
months,

in the 1960s was already

the microprocessor

and by the

power

cut-

large data systems and the unwieldy

but in 1971,

was developed

digital

in the 1980s and 1990s. Our

as the first generation

operational,

of the first genera-

a very different

many
were

now

suggests

that

doubles

and text

every

In fact,

and worksta-

being translated

to microcomputers,

by their absence.

18

processing

applications.

main-frame

in the

Law,

into pro-

urban

Momentum

modin the

field was at such a low ebb that there was little

activity

in

such development

woke

up

and

by the

time

the

field

New simulation
diffusion using CA.

models: urban growth

FIGURE 1:

based local

again in the mid 199Os, there were few if any applications

that utilised

the then current

making

generic

argued

that

applications

the market

for such development

did not attempt

power

of microcomputing

widely

available.

now are such efforts

what

data.

In many

software

in this way,

user interfaces

that became

and

information

and the

available.

digital

Only

their

under way.

planning

257

tools

based

ways,

the

methods

for

was the development

of

on techniques
development

systems was an obvious

world
data

of computer

in fact happened

but those who were still in the field

they failed to utilise new graphical

range of map-based

of the development

modest

software

was too

In terms
planners,
more

their

models

in
be

small

to open

for urban

It might

for the processing

has very wide

of

to the

geographic

step in moving

to a

of maps and storage

applicability,

per se. GIS originated

nearer

from

much

large

a synthesis

of

than

of three

Models planning

JAG

been a central

concern

were

198Os, packages

the early
system,

were

being

marketed

planning,

if only

But once desktop

1990s coinciding
then

of that

most

field.

of maps as in SYMAP (SYmbol-

based on such associations.

ous uses in urban

use mapping.

Volume 3 - issue 3 - 2001

in the development

In fact early line plotting

MAPping)

By the late

which

GIS began

with

had obvi-

for automated

the Windows

municipalities

began

land

in earnest

in

operating

to employ

such

tools.
The functionality

within

kinds of urban

analysis

quite

methods

elaborate

GIS for

most

functions

specialist

plug-ins.

important

in that

process,

particularly

tion,

that

plug-ins

require

those

data

dealing

with

rarely

presented

that

adding

functionality
that

controversial

sation
permits

to the archiving

technologies
abstracted
their

areas - from

involved

developments

polygons,

raster

cartography
duction

notion

where

and

the concern

so on,

many

that

points,

from

lines,

was the automatic

pro-

and

planning

data

layers

where
together

data

process,

upon

that

data.

to the building

as the
new

Business

District

Bristol can be displayed,

be used

uses at difdesign

level. Much

for use of digital

of their

problem

use of that

outcomes
kinds

of data

at the fine

types of activity
of

the

in a
delib-

using GIS, thus

3, we show

smoothed

in
and

model

are then

in the digital

In Figure
different

the

might

and

In terms of the

to the local urban

attitudes,

of

the organi-

of their system as a model

many

the

GIS and
range

bases in more

GIS has many

users to think

activity

had

258

Central

with

and

applications

services.

the users to be expert

associated

is a mar-

their

of map data that

to think

Moreover,

of planning

on

modelling
esoteric

of tools

planning

process where

upon.

requiring
tion

intent

there

across

scale can only be accessed and unlocked

scales,

layers in the landscape

professional

erated

range

even down

requires
terms,

problem-solving

computer

of maps across many

architecture

associating

base technologies

in how to represent

ideas in representing

landscape
of

data

structures

and generalisation

and from
from

spatial

1 and 2 is still

although

where

planners

the regional

of this usage depends

related

the

routine

planning

scale and perhaps

used was

mathematical

as well as professional

scales from

the

In fact, the kinds

in Figures

municipalitys

terms

professional

FIGURE2: Simulating sprawl in the Ann Arbor, MI region

the software

part of GIS are issues involving

of a planning

ferent

for

use.

general
for public

plug-ins

in Urban

to develop

offer

from

and

we will

or more ago

GIS vendors,

to note

software

tasks. Clearly

which

they still see as somewhat

in their

It is important
related

calcu-

functions,

a decade

for planning

ket, are less inclined

applications

of the

Microcomputers

we illustrated
in that

and loca-

Most

based on spreadsheets.

available

is

and network

are few

Planning and Management where

of software

through

approach

growth

and viewing

in his book

non-graphical,

layer

to 3-dimensions

kinds of tools that were

[I9871

on the process

be added

capabilities.

As yet there

from

maps of

areas of the planning

accessibility

extensions

below.

by Brail

the

interpolation

recently

illustrate

to

are many

involve

spatial

numerically

such overlay

to date

lations,
more

there

related

Apart

different

need

However

and

limited.

for overlaying

data layers and for operating

of overlay,

modelling

is still quite

English

and thence

manipulahow

data

defining
town
aggregat-

of

JAG

Models planning

ed into

layers that

requires

for smoothing
many

are used in defining

considerable

knowledge

that

are embodied

contemporary

professionals
In short,
various

One of the

reasons

can be adapted
are only

why

urban

designers

design

does

have

been

the

hard

at the most local level. Moreover,

GIS [Batty

et a/, 1999b].

ous kinds

of media

use of these data,

we need to think

town

displays

into

these new digital

bottom-up

tions for a typical

planning

so

implies

ways.

models and

provided

by GIS, which

of visual and statistical

most

appropriate

in planning.
provides

applicability

use of

Moreover

a constraint

and

and functions

are left to the user who

also

this
which

feasibility

in

these low level tools

is engaged

in the

problem.
to low

place

fashioned
around

of

that

terms.

contexts,

has and

urban

planning.

employed
reflected

a toolbox

although

ago,

to

all based

represents

for

represent

of applrcations
on

the

the
soft-

within

the most widely

mathematical

et al [1993].
based

other

be used extensively

Spreadsheets
tool

taken
models

is not

GIS now

FIGURE 3: New models of urban data at the fine scale: defining a central business district through
diverse data layers which define relevant urban activities in Bristol, UK.

259

have largely

mathematical

or more

continues

In the variety

as those

which

focus of this kind of basic tool,

generic

Klosterman

such

models
operatronal

GIS. In fact

ware

by

level

those

a generation

most effective

set of func-

task but in providing

the

technologies

relevance,

in ingenious

as to how to combine

the

but its real power

a purpose-built

models

marks

3 - Issue 3 - 2001

mathematical

that decisions

This shift

into

GIS for

in more abstract

software

to a range

use of software

planmng

and the

and technologies

of development

in provrdrng

probably

to

how vari-

desktop

GIS of course can be used in much more routine

is not so much

can be linked

by

they are

of Wolverhampton,

of the problem

such as in the control

these to the data

Volume

data

multimedia

In Figure 4, we show

can be added

English

linking
software,

is because the subject

not embrace

too of how easy it IS to embed

of the

limited

to other
of building

In turn

Increases

such technologies

of their

that is available

centre

of

requires

this kind of usage.

which
which

it also

can be linked

In this, the prospect

of the user.

slow in adopting

unaware

a toolbox

of applications

which

This

operations

in the functionality

GlSs but

are able to exploit

GIS provides
kinds

the imagination

matter

desktop

who

boundaries.

of statistical

modelllng

collected

Recently

smoothing

together

various

GIS Maplnfo

as

plug-ins

have

been

and aggregating

Models

planning

linked

JAG

to the spreadsheet

ware

continue

and related

tools.

ly elaborate

models
this

Many

link

of possible
numbers

possible

a spreadsheet
of other

applications

reflects

are enormous

urban

planning.

such

as the

building

software

to fashion

opportunities

Other

software

too

development

from

Systems

such as that

contained

different

data

are

is becoming

possible

media.

now

being

are so

over the net and in various

is beginning
what

important

to change

is communicated

penultimate

section

for the develop-

are opening

up the planning

in the domain

tion

of note

graphical

Dynamics-like

we turn full circle and show

sentational
into
these

the

point

use of icons,

programming

low-level

of view

modelling

it is worth

envi-

of representation.

MOVING

MODELS

TIONS,

Mathematics.

and data
are

to collapse

noting

environments

in turn

changing.

contexts

to these

we examine
system

is
but

- and this

is simulated

is involved

this, we must review

new forms

accessed
desktop

and

in model

issues in the

how

to wider
where

computers
participa-

we stand on

program-

how this new repre-

is beginning

return

where

in
and

model-

programming

within

use. We will

models

models

and

what

but also who

design

but before

way

on the

immersive

are in the field.

of

only

not only

IMAGES,

BACK

DIGITAL

The idea that computers

Before

not

such extensions,

and

generic

the

communicated

increasingly

3 - Issue 3 - 2001

open to every other

to develop

Moreover

media.

to the

is worthy

of

ming such as STELLA to fully-fledged

ronments

there

in comparison

and applications

various

many

such as Excel

and users there

ment of new software

and it is becoming

the fact that the range

is so great

of researchers

every piece of software

extreme-

graphics

and the fact that

probably

Few have the time and ability

and there

to develop

within

abound

kinds of soft-

yet more statistical

to a variety

possibilities

few applications

to embrace

It is now

and

to

Excel and these

to expand

Volume

that

many

which

pioneers

of the first

of

machines

be programmed

imply

Increasingly

FIGURE 4: New data models for urban design: articulating

used oscilloscopes

Indeed

REPRESENTA-

be used for graphics

of the computer
for monitoring

and realised

to produce

the very first arcade

ICONS:

TOYS

could

back to the very beginning

back

TO

that

pictures

game

Pong

the

the workings

the scopes could

of various

kinds.

commercialised

the local design factors digitally in the town centre of Wolverhampton,

260

goes

era when

UK

JAG

Models planning

in the early

1970s by Atari,

ever illustrated
television

in the early

revolution

to

raise

become

the

attempts

at putting
fly

to

it took

the

digital

level
iconic

go back to earliest

through

what

of

and

was possible

kinds of 30 technologies

enables

it has

the

in

first

ways

of the

but widespread

did not occur

of

use of

ingenious

quite

data

began

to

almost

the

market.

and

city

models

and with

navigation.

superficial

However

and their

porary

such design

CAD models
to

the

in

various
are

offline.

them

urban

geometry.

that

they

form

than

that

associated

rarely

use in anything

building

other

than

in that

all

dominant

urban

design

from

which

is returning

to these

digital

icons is not from

GIS. 3D visualisations

viewing
ment

spatial
the

extensions
into

thrust

which

represent

and in many

2D map view.

30 where

FIGURE

data

- data

enable

Many

GIS packages

2D map

the 3D content

5: Back to lconic modelling:

another

data

to

review

population

in the

In Figure

London

3D Analyst

to

a fursuch
offer
the

and other
5, we

Borough

as a 2D map

is

which

that

CAD models

rather

in digital

than

form

of

and

3D

is part of

applications

various

spatial

database
means

being

automated

while

height

such

of

area around

comple-

where

have

sorts.

the Cathedral

the several thousand

attribute.

technology.

important

through
in Figure

is also
imagery

remote

of the

in the City (of London)

have been taken

This is the state

sens-

6, we show

GIS, a 3D visualisation

points

the

construction.

sourced

itself

of 80

GIS and

representing

photorealistic

St. Pauls Cathedral

blocks

with

model

although

impacts

Upwards

various

For example,

using desktop

the building

LIDAR data,

be extruded

through

to accessing

aesthetic

designs.

technologies
for

represented

Users now require

exist worldwide

data is being

ing of various
again

no longer

as a means

to their

now

of 30 digital

[Batty et a/, 20011

for solely generating

visual form

serious

once

review

of London

Realism in terms of rendering

and

way

a worldwide

edge of such technologies.

predominant

CAD but

now

is some spatial

For

taken

users to explore

scenes.

is illustrated

we undertook

models

data,

and

planning

senses these

density

for the Corporatron

or providing

limited.
The

data.

correlations

different

using the plug-in

iconic

struc-

rendering,
design

enables

GIS ArcView.

the cutting

for visualising

have any content

that

block model

and concluded

the idea

The geometric

with

In the
is often

then some packages

and examining

which

is not possi-

are very effective

into the scene. If several

together,

between

and

and if this is used, then

the desktop

models

to presen-

limited

patterns

population

Recently

relatively

In fact, contem-

is use them

in a way that

of any activity

hotlinking

pan

inter-

used for display

models

of cities are rather

tures

their

3D

such CAD invokes

is always

other
hence

such

many

zoom

at multiple

can be coded

Westminster

developed

usage has been confined

one can do with

changes

been

of the web,

Although

computer

For example,
have

the growth

purposes.

of design,

personal

such as VRML are being

net equivalents

tational

as the

invade

architectural
AutoCAD

as soon

easily

to

30 views

by brushing

3 - Issue 3 - 2001

can be more

ability

In fact,

density

ther variable

show

that

the

associations

began

and

looking

Volume

in data

the

to be examined

scenes are displayed

recently.
CAD

errors

while

mark the thrrd dimension

early

until

and

30

detail

example,

downtown
in the

in

ble in a map view.

days of CAD. The

Merrill

patterns

visualised

the micro-

model

buildings

Owings

Spatial

on US

where

technology,

the traditional

by Skidmore,

1980s showed
these

first shown

1950s. Although

dominant

frame

Chicago

computer

graphics

city into a computer

wire

was one of the first graphics

from a digital

being

generated

from

crude

constructed

from

by the laser-based

of the art and very shortly

density in Westminster (London) generated as block model within desktop GIS

261

Models planning

JAG

such models will be generated on the fly as satellite data

at the requisite level of resolution becomes available on
a daily basis.

Volume 3 - issue 3

- ZOO?

the level of representation and it implies that the kinds of

models that are suitable are those which are less abstract,
more micro in scale and form, as well as dealing with routine dynamics processes that might be captured
dynamic reaiisations of the 2D map or 3D geometry

One of the main themes in this paper involves the way

the idea of the computer model of the city has changed
during the last 50 years, and our implicit argument that

in
in

question.
For example, work at the Environmental
Simulation Center (http://www.simcenter.org/
Projects/
CommunityViz/communityviz.html~
in New York City for
the town of Scutney in New England has developed a

we have come full circle is clearly being borne out by the

flurry of 30 digital block models of cities that are currently being constructed. Yet this circularity is never what
it seems. This is no mere return to a world of the archi-

visualisation of an agent-based model of community

development, tying its mathematics back to data as well
as to 3D icons. We have ourselves designed various models of the movement of agents in shopping centres and

tects models where the focus is purely on visual evaluation. As we shall see in our concluding section, access to
these new digital icons is very different from the precomputer age. The visual simplicity of their form belies
their true purpose which is much more likely to be as an

in galleries and have visualised such movements in 3D. In

our models of movement in the Tate Gallery, we have
visualised agents moving in both 2D and 30, examining
different digital visualisations and simulations of the
same system [Batty et al, 19981. We show some of these
in Figure 7 but our point is that the argument
of this

interface to a complex and interrelated data base where

3D visualisation is but one way of accessing the data and
managing this complexity.

paper is by no means complete.

In the next decade we
are likely to see many new fusions and extensions of the
mathematical,
representational
and data models which
we have through different kinds of digital media

l-lowever there is another set of applications which is likely to convolute these examples even further. We have
already implied that new functionality is being introduced
into GIS which is extending their use from representation
to simulation. The same is occurring in 3D. Already there
are traffic models where the representation enables actual car movements to be simulated mathematically and
visualised in 3D while there are experiments to show how
various kinds of model process can be embedded within
3D virtual environments of the kind visualised above. This
is the point at which the models themselves must match

FIGURE6:

MOVING MODELS BACK TO USERS: PARTICIPATING

IN DIGITAL DESIGN
In public policy particularly, there has always been concern as to the relevance and remoteness of the science
with respect to the kinds of advice that such science provides for issues that affect a wider public. However

A GIS 30 block model of St Pauls district in the city of London with height data from LIDARdata

262

JAG

Models planning

realrty

in a digital

any problem

different
There

world

can be quickly

computer

models

interpretations

of data

models,

individually

As we have noted,
being

ported

to the web.

software
Internet

ed in thus paper,
the

regeneration
Hackney.
which

The Hackney

is built

around

environmental
designs
imtiative

aimed

images

from

of

is a project

approaches

to raising

non digital

maps and

by a complementary

participation

the process.
this

of

Borough

in the local community

supported

and icons to support

some

city context

Exploratory

through

at public

by a

is possi-

problems

in the London

products

being

about

conventional

awareness

and related

this is now

upon

of what

used In an inner

Building

project

is

that we have present-

of awareness

and deprivation

kinds

visualizations

and acted

As an example

are being

of others.

of varrous

GIS and CAD is being

can be viewed

development

own

burld therr own

and this IS delivering

of interests.

enor-

their

or in the presence

ble, many of the visual techniques

for

of users

web provides

and rn prrnciple,

established

range

wide

a range

users to generate

desktop

and map data that

wide

on

from the use of

in which

but, the world

for different

gradually

perspectrves

fashioned

forums

mous potential
either

different

based tools.

are as yet few

can build

where

Volume 3 - Issue 3 - 2001

and
digital

using digital

In Figure

which

CAD and GIS can be used to unlock

data

8, we show

reveals

how

VR,

data and to deliver

this to users across the web. This data vanes in scale but
the intent

is to educate

and communicate

cern in the local community.

to provrde
way they

users with
that

the interests

building

capability

are being

built

as yet

but in the

to put data together,

models

and beliefs

by local planning
FIGURE

We have not sought

model

are encouraged

an implication

issues of con-

there

which

is

reflect

of those who are being affected

issues.

7:

Spatial modeiling at the finest scale: simulating

human movement in 25 with visualisation in 30.
In Figure
could
attempts

at developing

systems

In the

wider

attempts

at

dynamics

models

context

providing

sion-makers

al interfaces

might

approach

However,

those
to

the

with

degree

uncertainty

of

this

more than one model

counter
[I9761

perspective
modellrng
more

close

The notion

associated

anced

jointly

but in general,

than

same

with

lated

to the

science

are able

problem

IS usually

IS also

of participation.
systems

required

policy-making.
proposed

change

The high

terms of what

to provide
The
much

cy whrch

a bal-

process
more

the earliest

that

texts.

of

The only
we might

saw their

ourselves

limits

In the next 20 years, there

of ideas which

of a

planning

will

broaden

even further.

of

up a variety

of

and modified
There

from

is a

the digr-

and all promise

to

In public affairs and

are in

and this IS a far cry from

in planning

use in purely

simu-

kinds

to such possibilities

imagine

use of computers

et a/

263

constructed

the way we involve

policy.

emerges

- the

with

not been possible.

which

IS being

be tested

their

fiction

- but these

and open

might

exten-

users might

but real individuals

possrble

movement

alongside

like science

interactions

simulations

whrch

of

in which

environments

have hitherto

urban

is such

such

of possibilrtres

intimately

by Greenberger

20 years ago is now

tal world

to

more than

models

and an obvious

ways

This sounds

are now

in ways that
cornucopia

inter-

involves

and their

ways in which

how
worlds

of remote

agents

environment

using visu-

in which

enter
selves.

Juxtapositions

deci-

and the new con-

too of providing

in human

first

simulated

such efforts

modelllng

a context

process

on

themselves

Some
systems

the new focus on vrsuali-

is at last providing
than

limited.

illustrated
to virtual

sion of such worlds

of urban

in which

be developed

up data and symbolic

make an impact.
one

been

GIS and VR are providing

cern to open
ests other

have

have been tried

which

models

environments

have been laboured.

sation

mathematical

7, we

be linked

passive,
promises

the concept

and public

poli-

top-down

con-

to be a fusion
of models

In

JAG

Models planning

FIGURE8: Bringing digital data and models to users: participation

interactive

CONCLUSIONS:
PLANNING

levelled
to

get

AND

MODELLING

of models

is no more

that

trenchant

we have developed
that

those

at every area of the human

to

fraught

FOR

CITIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY

The critique
paper

MODELS

in environmental

grips

with

social

that

have

sciences.

complexity

phenomena,

in this

in terms

as urban

that supposes

that the human

condition

can be bettered

by interfering

in the

of urban

development,

process

and

the

shown.

how

cities function

researchers

innovate

264

We still
are

complexity,
wisdom
systems
and

do

not

Issue 3

more

models

as those

2001

good

there
aware

theory

are signs
of

their

have

been

which

devel-

form

the conven-

economics.

Moreover,

as their

populations

are ever changing

new

last 50

that

of contemporary
develop

of the

have

and although

becoming
the

are as arbitrary

human
is

as the experience

have

tional

ideology

difficulty

about

oped

of its

manifestation

with

intrinsic

Volume

issues through the Hackney building exploratory-

years
that

been

The effort

sets

of

preferences

and

Models

JAG

ptanning

tastes,

thus

applicable.

laying

waste

The current

sense of complexity
of the fact that
ingful
that

concern

it is virtually

that

once

for theories

and change

predictions
would

to theory

seemed

that

environment

make

potential

to make

mean-

urban

form

the basis of medium

in using

models

that

or long term

have

material

we have addressed

in planning,

circle and it worth

pausing

learned

to the real thing,

to briefly

along

the

digital

iconography.

To progress

cities involved

reflect

way.

forms

of their

with

come

full

on what

we

based

on

Models

by models

this far, the first applications

of space together,
across

visual

simulations

but now

the

imagery

realm

to

is now

a cliche

comparisons

the

ing of how
has been

much

a cautiousness

knowledge

both

little

that

doubt

our

that

new

these will

than
In fact,

new plane

in terms

ops theory,

more

in the physical

end,

many

urgently
that

with

data

and devel-

to the way

sciences

is required

large-scale

are being

techniques
methods

that

ideas

they

and processes.

presented

to

and the data

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London.

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March (Eds), Urban Space and Structures. CambrIdge University
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to

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Centre
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seek to explain.

in parallel

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in parallel

which

by the ESRC NEXand

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and Application to Travel Demand MIT Press, Cambndge, MA

in unlocking

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to a

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handled.

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prediction

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been

it treats

on the very world

modelling

have

of the way

of causality

problems,

but

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is

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There

in much more

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for new notions

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of cities

environments

dependent

has

and prescriptively.

and it is this that

theories

cannot

is

this

the tools we now have are all the better

used to hitherto.

complex

us pause

need to be developed

in the latter

of cities

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they once were

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RESUME
Le terme modele
est entre dans le dictionnaire
au tours des
annees 60 quand soudainement
Iidee de representation
symbolique de systemes complexes a vu le jour. Cecr etait en grande
partie due aux ordinateurs
qui etaient capables de traiter automatiquement
de grandes series de don&es
ainsi qua un changement
fondamental
de notre comprehension
des systemes
dans le domaine de la science ou de la societe. Comme les ordinateurs ont envahi tous les domaines de notre monde, Iidee du
mod@le navait plus le meme pouvoir attractif.
Les modeles
sont partout. Cependant
pour des systemes urbains, le role des
modeles
a enormement
change.
Avant
1950, des modeles
urbains designaient
des representations
architecturales
de leurs
formes physiques. Des modeles mathematiques
ont domine les
annees 60 et 70, puis il y a eu Ies modeles de donnees qui ont
domine au tours des an&es 80 et 90. Mais maintenant
Iaccent
est de nouveau sur une representation
tradrtionnelle
des villes
par des modeles de forme tndimensionnelle,
annoncant
ainsi un
retour des modeles dicones qui ont domine la planification
physique jusquici. Dans cet article, nous passons en revue le developpement
de la mod~lisation
dans la recherche
urbaine au
tours de la moitie du dernier siecle et nous suggerons que des
nouveaux types de synthese sont maintenant
possibles.

Klosterman, R E., R.K. Brawl & E.G. Bossard (Eds), 1993. Spreadsheet
Models for Urban and Regional Analysis. Rutgers University
Press, New Brunswtck, NJ.
Landis, I.D., 1994. The California urban futures model: a new generation of metropolitan
slmuiation
models. Environment
and
Planning B 21: 399-420.
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RESUMEN
El termino modelo
entro en el Iexico en 10s arias 1960, cuando se desarrollo repentinamente
la idea de representar simbolrcamente sistemas complejos.
Esto se debe tanto al hecho que
las computadoras
habian alcanzado
el punto
de manipular
amplias series de datos en forma rutinaria coma a cambios fundamentales en nuestro entendimiento
de 10s sistemas compleJos
en la ciencia y en la sociedad.
Como las computadoras
han
penetrado
cada esquina
de nuestro
mundo,
la idea de
modelo ya no tiene mas el poder de atraccion que tuvo en otro
tiempo. Modelos se encuentran
en todas partes. Sin embargo,
en el case de 10s sistemas urbanos, el papel de 10s modelos ha
cambiado substancialmente.
Antes de 1950, 10s modelos de ciudades se referian a representaciones
arquitectonrcas
de su forma
fisica. En 10s arias 1960 y 1970 dominaban
10s modelos matematicos, y en 10s arias 1980 y 1990 comenzaron
a dominar 10s
modelos de datos. Pero ahora, el enfoque volvio a las representaciones tradicionales
de las cuidades coma modelos drgitales
tri-dimensionales,
anunciando
de esta manera un retorno a /OS
modelos figuratlvos
que habian dominado la planificacl~n fisica
hasta ahora. En este articulo, se analiza el desarrollo de la
modelizacron
en investrgacion
urbana durante el uitimo medio
siglo y se sugiere que nuevas formas de sintesis son ahora posibles.

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Rationality

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University Press, New Haven, CT. [AUTHOR: I have just given
one date although the first volume was published in 1979, the
second In 1989, but I think It IS overkill to put them In twice as
separate entries]
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and

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