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MEXICO
Euromonitor International
September 2015
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TRENDS
Consumers sought entertaining ways to consume calcium, driving growth of flavoured milk
drinks. Specifically, flavoured milk drinks with fruit juice, showed dynamism, increasing by 9%
and 14% in retail volume and current value terms, respectively, due to recent innovations and
the fact that it is still a small category with potential to grow. For example, Alpura Frutal,
available in peach, mango, and strawberry as well as other flavours, has presentations in
single-size tetra brik containers. Flavoured milk is also growing because of increasing
presentations in to-go sizes.
As a result of the massive communication campaigns about obesity, and tax taking effect on 1
January 2014, called IEPS Impuesto Especial SobreProduccin y Servicios (Special Tax
Over Production and Services) imposed an 8% rate on high calorie food, which takes into
account those products with 275 kilocalories and above per 100g of product. Under that
parameter, flavoured powder drinks are considered a high caloric product and thus taxed with
the IEPS, as well as other food categories such as sugar confectionery, snack bars, breakfast
cereals, pastries, snacks and ice cream. Consumers shifted away from beverages with high
sugar content, such as carbonated sweet beverages, and starting to favour more alternatives
perceived as healthier, such as juice, drinking yoghurt or flavoured milk drinks.
Retail current value sales of drinking milk products grew by 3% in 2015, marginally lower than
the previous year. This growth rate dropped because of the tax imposed on production and
services bringing down the income left to spend on the category. Small categories, such as
flavoured milk drinks with fruit juice and other non-dairy milk alternatives, which include
almond and rice milk continued to support growth in drinking milk products as they are
considered a more innovative (milk with juice) and healthier (almond and soy milk) alternative
to consuming dairy.
The average unit price will increase in 2015 by 4%. International prices fell by 50%,
encouraging imports of powdered milk and stopping commercialisation of millions of local
litres. The most affected were small and medium producers who get Mx$5 a litre while
producing one litre costs them Mx$5.7. The highest unit price increase was recorded by nonHW cow's milk and full fat cows milk with 6% and 5% growth respectively.
The majority of flavoured milk drinks in Mxico are ambient products sold in individual portion
brick cartons; as they do not require to be chilled before being opened, so consumers can
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easily buy a number of portions and stock them for several days as they have a long shelf life.
Individual bricks are a convenient format for adults and children for out of home consumption.
For example, Lala Caf Leche is sold in to-go tetra brik and plastic bottle versions.
Since 1944, the Mexican government has run a milk subsidy programme called Programa de
Abasto Social de Leche (Social Programme of Milk Supply). It works under the Secretara de
Desarrollo Social (Ministry of Social Development), with the purpose of providing cows and
powder milk at a subsidised price to children aged up to 12, pregnant or lactating women,
women between 45- and 59-years-old, chronically ill and disabled people aged over 12, and
adults aged 60 and over. Leche Liconsa distributes around 3.5 million litres per day at only
Mx$4.5 per litre; a price that the government has maintained with no increase since
November 2011, and that corresponds to only about 30% of the regular price of milk. The
government announced these prices would be maintained in 2015, as would the prices for
producers of Mx$6.2. The programme is addressed to low-income families that do not have
the financial resources to buy milk at the regular price.
Programa de Abasto Social de Leche, led by Liconsa will continue to buy 350,000 litres of
local milk a day at the price of Mx$6.20. The program buys 700 million litres of local milk and
imports 300 million litres to benefit close to 6,430,000 people. However, still many producers
are left out of the program with excess milk and protest so that Liconsa buys from them
instead of importing. For example, in 2014, Lincosa announced it would reduce its milk
purchases from 125,000 a day to only 72,000. Milk producers threatened to throw away
35,000 litres of milk to protest Mexico importing powdered milk instead of buying locally.
Because of annual imports of 45,000 tonnes of powdered milk, 150,000 small and medium
Mexican producers have gone out of business but because of budget constraints, it remains
impossible for Liconsa to buy all milk locally. Policies are needed to benefit the national
market and to regulate milk imports.
The DIF (Sistema Nacional para el Desarrollo Integral de la Familia National System for
Integral Family Development) provides scholar breakfasts to children under five years of age
in the poorest neighbourhoods in the country. The breakfast is offered almost for free, at the
symbolic price of MX$0.50, and it includes a 250ml brick liquid carton of cows milk, plus
cereal and fruit. The programme covers more than six million children, which represents about
one billion portions, each of them including a 250ml carton of milk.
Both long-life/UHT milk and fresh/pasteurised milk have a positive perception amongst
consumers in terms of freshness and quality; however, long-life milk is considered to be more
convenient for busy lifestyles, and as more women work, they do not have time to visit the
supermarket several times a week, so they buy a number of packs of long-life/UHT milk,
which can last for several weeks. The presence of micro filtered milk in Mexico is negligible.
As prices for Mexican products rise because of increased taxation, low cost options emerge in
drinkable milk products. One example of this is Aurera milk. However, to reduce expenses low
cost manufacturers use dairy formulas and whey instead of whole milk. In 2015, La
Procuradura Federal del Consumidor began to force products that are not milk but sold as
such, to say it with the quote this is not milk on the packaging of their products.
Over the review period, a growing number of consumers reduced their consumption of dairy
products and milk for several reasons. Some people argue that there is too much fat in those
products and others believe that dairy products are unhealthy. This trend has opened a big
opportunity for manufacturers that offer increasingly sophisticated products, such as low fat,
fat-free or lactose-free products, amongst others. Non-dairy milk alternatives will show a
positive performance during 2015 with 4% and 7% volume and value growth, respectively. It
is still a small category of Mx$3 billion but it is expected to continue expanding due to the
lactose intolerance prevalence and consumers looking for non-dairy options. Lactose-free
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milk and non-dairy beverages such soy and almond milk, are recommended by some
professional nutritionists, which strengths their health-halo.
Milk companies are also expanding their portfolios by targeting specific consumer needs in
order to gain their attention. For example, Alpura has Alpura Mujer, specialised for women
without fat, with fibre and antioxidants and Lala has Lala Desarrollo with added calcium and
pro biotics.
Unpackaged milk has been losing relevance in Mxico, and it is currently available mainly in
rural areas or small towns because of convenience and distribution issues. Nevertheless,
there are several small producers that are marketing their unpackaged milk in their towns or
on e-commerce sites on the internet, and offer home delivery to encourage purchases.
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Grupo Lala continued to lead drinking milk products in 2015 with 37% share. The company
shows constant new product development focused on satisfying the particular needs of
different targets, from children, to women and elderly people, among others. Its portfolio
includes a number of health and wellness products and its products are distributed through a
variety of channels. Additionally, Grupo Lala has a network of producers that are also
shareholders to ensure its supply.
During 2014 and 2015, Grupo Lala with Lala Frutas gained marginal share. Consumers were
attracted to fun flavours and some chose to consume flavoured milk instead of drinking
yoghurt or purchasing milk plain. Ades from Cocina Productos de Maiz SA de CV gained
popularity in soy drinks with three percentage points in share. The brand launched single size
packages and advertised its products for children.
There are many obstacles for dairy such as cold distribution and the amount of providers,
which make it difficult for competitors to enter. Mondelez supported Mexican producers and
developed a project entitled Mondelez Farmers in August 2014 that will buy 80% of the milk
required for their cheese to 11 local producers. The project emerged as Mondelez requires
188,000 litres of high quality milk daily to produce Philadelfia cream cheese. The company
produces around 26,000 tonnes of cheese a year.
Drinking milk products is led by Mexican companies that account for over 70% of sales. The
three main domestic players are Grupo Lala, Ganaderos Productores de Leche Pura (Alpura)
and Liconsa. Nestl Mxico is the most important international company due to its dominance
in powder milk.
Launches were aimed at capturing customer interest. Lala launched Caf con Leche in 2015
and offered different sizes and presentations: in tetrabrick and to-go self-serving bottles. Ades
offered light flavoured milk without added sugar.
Alpura used social media for a campaign where consumers would upload a video saying why
they fall in love every day with their partner for a change to win a trip in a hot air balloon. The
brand also offered 2-for-1 cinema tickets with every purchase. Ades advertised its products as
a healthy and fun breakfast and lunch for children.
Packaging innovations were witnessed in 2015. Alpura announced in its packaging that it had
received awards in 2014 and it supported the Teleton fundraiser. Meanwhile, Lala
encouraged consumers to drink a glass of milk a day. Ades offered tetra brik 200ml boxes for
children. Other packages announced 30% more product to attract consumers.
The leading manufacturers within drinking milk products are mainly focused on standard
products. Premium products offer organic and other non-dairy milk alternatives, like almond
and rice milk. Finally, on the economy side is Liconsa milk subsidised by the government and
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distributed through its social programme, as well as the brands that are not considered real
milk but frmulaslcteas (dairy formulas) produced from milk serum and vegetal proteins
that do not fulfil the minimal level of nutrients that milk should have.
PROSPECTS
Drinking milk products is expected to increase over the forecast period, to reach Mx$69 billion
in 2020. As drinking milk is a mature category and is considered a staple to Mexican
consumers, it is expected to increase along with the rate of population growth.
Milk is a staple in the Mexican diet, and although it is mature and no per capita growth is
expected, in addition to facing competition from other categories such as yoghurt, flavoured
milk drinks and products such as soy and almond milk (the latter still niche), very moderate
growth towards the end of the forecast period is expected.
While FAO recommends per capita consumption of 500 millilitres annually, Mexico consumes
360 millilitres of dairy, meaning there is plenty of room for growth. The growth however will
likely be evident in sales for milk derivatives like yogurt and cream cheese, which grow almost
three times higher than milk as milk is already mature.
The category would continue to face strong competition from substitute products, such as
fruit/vegetable juice and drinking yoghurt, which also offer notable health benefits, as well as
from other soft drinks and coffee. A potential threat to the growth of drinking milk products
could be a long drought, which would affect the price of feed, and thus prices to final
consumers, making people increase their preference for non-dairy beverages. Having enough
supply of milk is a sector challenge as increased demand allows for imported powdered milk
to gain share. 30% of the 15,800 litres of milk consumed in the country is imported.
By 2020, 40% of the 250,000 units of milk production could disappear due to a lack of
investment in infrastructure.
Flavoured milk drinks with fruit juice is still immature with potential to grow. It is expected to
show the highest growth rates over the forecast period, recording a value CAGR of 6% at
constant 2015 prices. At the time of writing, only the Lala and Alpura brands are relevant in
flavoured milk drinks with fruit juice, but it is likely that in the coming years, other
manufacturers will decide to make an entrance.
Drinking milk products is expected to see a price increase over the forecast period as every
year, stockbreeders negotiate to be paid a better price per litre of milk, as they face
continuous increases in cattle feed prices as a result of droughts leading to fodder shortages.
Traditional grocery retailers held 54% value share in 2015 and is expected to continue to lead
distribution. This channel is expected to continue to carry the most basic products from each
manufacturer, leaving niche and specialised products to modern grocery retailers. Modern
grocery retailers has very aggressive growth in the country, and is reaching more consumers
every day with new product developments, heavy advertising and promotions, as well as the
opportunity to pay by credit card. In 2015, it accounted for 46%.
With new CEO, Scott Rank, Grupo Lala hopes to grow by adding extra distribution routes and
additional fridges at mom and pop stores.
Government authorities are expected to introduce stricter regulation over the so-called dairy
formulas, which are not real milk but drinks made of milk serum and vegetable proteins.
Legislation might continue allowing its commercialisation, just requesting that it clearly state
on the packaging that it is not pure milk but dairy formula. This may benefit local producers,
as consumers will seek their true milk products.
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2015s product launches are expected to perform well. Offering smaller size portions, health
benefits, or interesting flavours grabs consumers attention. Lalas Caf con Leche, as well as
Ades light flavoured milk without added sugar, provide greater variety and attract attention for
consumers seeking new varieties.
Product development in the coming years might include more flavoured lactose-free brands,
and an increasing use of stevia as a natural sweetener alternative for flavoured milk drinks.
Lala already offers a lactose free chocolate alternative named Yomi as well as Alpura, which
already offers chocolate and frutal lactose-free. Santa Clara offers ice cream flavoured
lactose-free, and additional varieties could emerge as consumers seek these fun alternatives.
Not as many options are available currently for stevia but innovation in the sector may follow
this trend.
CATEGORY DATA
Table 1
'000 tonnes
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
158.1
135.1
161.5
138.0
165.6
142.0
172.3
140.4
180.5
142.7
188.2
146.9
23.0
23.4
23.6
31.9
37.8
41.3
4,456.1
4,456.1
77.4
101.0
4,395.4
4,395.4
77.2
106.1
4,179.6
4,179.6
78.8
110.4
4,117.5
4,117.5
79.0
115.3
3,903.8
3,903.8
77.8
119.6
3,810.7
3,810.7
76.8
123.7
91.1
10.0
-
95.7
10.4
-
99.6
10.8
-
103.6
11.3
0.5
107.4
11.6
0.5
111.1
12.0
0.6
4,792.7
4,740.1
4,534.4
4,484.2
4,281.6
4,199.4
Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources
Table 2
MXN million
Euromonitor International
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
3,846.7
3,445.7
4,074.1
3,658.7
4,306.5
3,867.1
4,633.4
4,011.9
5,018.2
4,252.5
5,441.2
4,572.4
401.0
415.4
439.4
621.5
765.7
868.8
43,536.4
43,536.4
7,120.0
2,150.7
44,940.7
44,940.7
7,156.0
2,309.1
44,473.5
44,473.5
7,478.8
2,479.4
46,191.6
46,191.6
7,875.0
2,671.5
46,790.6
46,790.6
8,081.3
2,847.7
48,132.8
48,132.8
8,271.6
3,046.0
- Soy Drinks
- Soy Milk
- Other Non-Dairy Milk
Alternatives
Drinking Milk Products
Source:
Passport
1,901.6
249.1
-
2,044.7
264.4
-
2,184.4
295.0
-
2,342.7
312.2
16.6
2,503.8
325.6
18.2
2,679.5
346.7
19.9
56,653.7
58,479.9
58,738.3
61,371.5
62,737.7
64,891.5
Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources
Table 3
% volume growth
2014/15
2010-15 CAGR
2010/15 Total
4.3
3.0
9.2
-2.4
-2.4
-1.3
3.5
3.4
3.5
5.6
-1.9
3.5
1.7
12.4
-3.1
-3.1
-0.2
4.1
4.1
3.9
-2.6
19.0
8.7
79.2
-14.5
-14.5
-0.9
22.5
22.0
21.0
-12.4
Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources
Table 4
2014/15
2010-15 CAGR
2010/15 Total
8.4
7.5
13.5
2.9
2.9
2.4
7.0
7.0
6.5
8.8
3.4
7.2
5.8
16.7
2.0
2.0
3.0
7.2
7.1
6.8
2.8
41.4
32.7
116.6
10.6
10.6
16.2
41.6
40.9
39.2
14.5
Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources
Table 5
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
36.3
23.3
35.4
23.0
36.3
22.1
36.5
21.9
36.6
21.8
Euromonitor International
de Leche Pura SA de CV
Nestl Mxico SA de CV
Liconsa SA de CV
Lechera Guadalajara SA
de CV
Cocina Productos de
Maiz SA de CV
Unifoods SA de CV
Santa Clara Productos
Lacteos SA de CV
Grupo Industrial
Cuadritos Biotek, SA de
CV
Pasteurizadora
Aguascalientes SA de CV
Hershey Mxico SA de CV
Herdez SAB de CV, Grupo
Kellogg de Mxico SA de
CV
Jugos del Valle SA de CV
Valle Redondo SA de CV
Mead Johnson
Nutricionales de Mxico
S de RL de CV
Ultralcteos SA de CV
Coca-Cola Export Corp
(Coca-Cola de Mexico)
Neolac SA de CV
Sigma Alimentos SA de CV
Sabritas SRL de CV
Mexilac SA de CV
Private Label
Others
Total
Passport
7.9
8.0
5.3
8.1
8.3
5.2
8.2
8.3
4.9
8.3
8.1
4.8
8.2
7.9
4.7
2.4
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.3
2.5
2.1
2.6
2.1
2.4
2.0
2.3
2.1
2.3
2.2
0.6
1.1
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
-
0.5
0.3
-
0.5
0.3
-
0.4
0.2
-
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.2
5.8
100.0
1.2
5.8
100.0
1.2
5.6
100.0
1.2
5.6
100.0
1.2
5.5
100.0
Source:
Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources
Table 6
Euromonitor International
Company (NBO)
2012
2013
2014
2015
29.9
21.5
29.5
20.7
29.4
20.4
29.5
20.3
8.3
5.1
8.3
4.8
8.1
4.7
7.9
4.6
4.4
2.6
4.5
2.7
4.5
3.0
4.5
3.3
3.2
3.1
-
3.2
2.9
2.0
3.2
2.9
2.1
3.2
2.9
2.2
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
0.8
1.4
1.5
1.6
Forti Leche
Borden
Del Rancho
Biorganic Milk
Hershey's (Hershey
Co, The)
Mi Leche
Soy Frut
Nesquik (Nestl SA)
Lala Frutas
Kellogg's All Bran
(Kellogg Co)
Del Valle (CocaCola Co, The)
Sonrisa (Empresas
Cetto)
Cuadritos
Choco Milk (Mead
Johnson Nutrition Co)
Leche Unin
Tikito
Santa Clara
Aventuras Mgicas
(Coca-Cola Co, The)
Private label
Others
Total
Source:
Passport
Cuadritos Biotek, SA de CV
Ganaderos Productores
de Leche Pura SA de CV
Grupo Lala SAB de CV
Unifoods SA de CV
Unifoods SA de CV
Hershey Mxico SA de CV
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.3
1.0
0.8
1.4
1.3
1.1
0.8
1.4
1.2
1.1
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
Valle Redondo SA de CV
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
Grupo Industrial
Cuadritos Biotek, SA de CV
Mead Johnson
Nutricionales de Mxico
S de RL de CV
Ultralcteos SA de CV
Lechera Guadalajara SA
de CV
Santa Clara Productos
Lacteos SA de CV
Coca-Cola Export Corp
(Coca-Cola de Mexico)
Private Label
Others
Total
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
2.1
1.2
6.1
100.0
1.2
5.9
100.0
1.2
5.9
100.0
1.2
5.8
100.0
Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources
Table 7
Store-Based Retailing
- Grocery Retailers
-- Modern Grocery
Retailers
--- Convenience Stores
--- Discounters
--- Forecourt Retailers
--- Hypermarkets
--- Supermarkets
-- Traditional Grocery
Retailers
--- Food/drink/tobacco
specialists
--- Independent Small
Grocers
--- Other Grocery
Retailers
- Non-Grocery Specialists
Euromonitor International
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
100.0
99.2
45.3
100.0
99.2
45.5
100.0
99.2
45.3
100.0
99.2
45.4
100.0
99.2
45.6
100.0
99.2
45.7
4.8
14.3
13.1
13.1
53.9
5.0
14.6
13.2
12.7
53.7
5.0
14.6
13.3
12.4
53.9
5.1
14.7
13.3
12.3
53.7
5.2
14.8
13.4
12.2
53.6
5.3
14.9
13.4
12.1
53.5
53.4
53.2
53.4
53.3
53.2
53.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.0
Passport
0.0
0.8
100.0
0.8
100.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
100.0
Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources
Table 8
'000 tonnes
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
188.2
146.9
196.4
152.4
203.5
156.7
210.3
160.9
217.2
165.1
224.1
169.4
41.3
44.1
46.8
49.4
52.0
54.7
3,810.7
3,810.7
76.8
123.7
3,769.9
3,769.9
76.6
127.7
3,742.1
3,742.1
76.3
131.7
3,733.2
3,733.2
76.2
136.2
3,737.8
3,737.8
76.1
141.0
3,752.2
3,752.2
76.0
146.0
111.1
12.0
0.6
114.7
12.4
0.6
118.3
12.8
0.6
122.3
13.3
0.7
126.6
13.7
0.7
131.0
14.2
0.8
4,199.4
4,170.7
4,153.6
4,156.0
4,172.1
4,198.4
Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources
Table 9
MXN million
Euromonitor International
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
5,441.2
4,572.4
5,717.3
4,781.3
5,960.8
4,965.5
6,211.8
5,156.2
6,453.9
5,338.4
6,706.2
5,530.3
868.8
936.0
995.3
1,055.7
1,115.4
1,176.0
48,132.8
48,132.8
8,271.6
3,046.0
48,157.5
48,157.5
8,271.6
3,145.9
48,428.5
48,428.5
8,280.5
3,247.7
48,925.3
48,925.3
8,297.9
3,361.4
49,644.4
49,644.4
8,320.2
3,484.6
50,418.8
50,418.8
8,336.8
3,611.1
2,679.5
2,768.2
2,858.5
2,958.9
3,067.2
3,178.1
- Soy Milk
- Other Non-Dairy Milk
Alternatives
Drinking Milk Products
Source:
Passport
346.7
19.9
356.7
21.0
366.9
22.3
378.9
23.6
392.5
25.0
406.7
26.4
64,891.5
65,292.2
65,917.5
66,796.4
67,903.0
69,073.0
Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources
Table 10
% volume growth
Table 11
2015/16
2015-20 CAGR
2015/20 Total
4.4
3.7
6.7
-1.1
-1.1
-0.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
5.3
-0.7
3.6
2.9
5.8
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
3.4
3.4
3.4
6.2
0.0
19.1
15.3
32.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.0
18.0
17.9
18.1
35.1
0.0
Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources
2015/2016
2015-20 CAGR
2015/20 TOTAL
5.1
4.6
7.7
0.1
0.1
0.0
3.3
3.3
2.9
5.5
0.6
4.3
3.9
6.2
0.9
0.9
0.2
3.5
3.5
3.2
5.8
1.3
23.3
20.9
35.4
4.7
4.7
0.8
18.6
18.6
17.3
32.8
6.4
Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources
Euromonitor International
10