Background

The Glass Slipper restaurant has operated in a resort community near a popular ski area of New Mexico and busiest
during the first 3 months of the year. The Glass slipper offered the ultimate dining experience with breathtaking views of the
surrounding mountains. James and Deena Weltee, the owner, place special attention in setting the perfect ambiance making dining
a truly magnificent gourment experience. The Glass Slipper has developed and maintained a reputation as one of the "must visit"
places in that region of New Mexico.
Objective
After careful analysis of their financial condition, the Weltee's decided to sell the Glass Slipper and open a bed and
breakfast on a beautiful beach in Mexico. Although not retired yet, this would put them in the retirement setting they have been
longing for many years. They would have to hire a manager that would allow them to begin a semi-retirement life in paradise. The
Glass Slipper for the right price. The price of the business would be based on the value of the property and equipment, as well as
projections of future income. A forecast of sales for the next year is needed to help in the determination of the calue of the
restaurant. Monthly sales for each of the past 3 years are provided below.
Monthly Revenue (in $1,000s)
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

###
436
419
414
318
306
240
240
216
202
225
270
315

##
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

###
454
439
434
338
331
254
264
231
220
243
289
330

12-Month Moving Average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Forecasting
Num pds
Data
Month
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10

Simple Linear Regression

12

Demand
438
420
414
318
306
240
240
216
198
225
270
315
444
425
423
331
318
245
255
223
210
233
278
322
450
438
434
338
331
254

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast
Error
Absolute

Squared

Abs Pct Err

Forec
500
400
300
Value

200
100
0

300.000
300.500
300.917
301.667
302.750
303.750
304.167
305.417
306.000
307.000
307.667
308.333
308.917
309.417
310.500
311.417
312.000
313.083

144.000
124.500
122.083
29.333
15.250
-58.750
-49.167
-82.417
-96.000
-74.000
-29.667
13.667
141.083
128.583
123.500
26.583
19.000
-59.083

144.000
124.500
122.083
29.333
15.250
58.750
49.167
82.417
96.000
74.000
29.667
13.667
141.083
128.583
123.500
26.583
19.000
59.083

20736.000
15500.250
14904.340
860.444
232.563
3451.563
2417.361
6792.507
9216.000
5476.000
880.111
186.778
19904.507
16533.674
15252.250
706.674
361.000
3490.840

0.324
0.293
0.289
0.089
0.048
0.240
0.193
0.370
0.457
0.318
0.107
0.042
0.314
0.294
0.285
0.079
0.057
0.233

Tim
Demand

The lines above the "forecast line" illustrate their

the "forecast line" show their offseason. The gra
sales as each New Year begins. Basically, the up
issue and the "Gray" is performance.

Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10

264
231
224
243
289

313.833
314.583
315.250
316.417
317.250

-49.833
-83.583
-91.250
-73.417
-28.250

49.833
83.583
91.250
73.417
28.250

Dec-10

335

318.167

16.833
129.000
5.375

16.833
1679.833
69.993

Total
Average
Bias

MAD
SE

Next period

319.25

2483.361
6986.174
8326.563
5390.007
798.063
283.361
161170.389
6715.433
MSE
MAPE
85.592

0.189
0.362
0.407
0.302
0.098
0.050
5.437
0.227

Forecasting

Time
Demand

Forecast

orecast line" illustrate their busiest months, while the lines below
ow their offseason. The graph also shows moderate increase in
ar begins. Basically, the up and down is more of a seasonality
s performance.

Regression Analysis

Refression Analysis

Forecasting

Simple linear regression

Data

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Month

Demand (y)

Period(x)

Forecast

Error

IfIf this
this isis trend
trend analysis
analysis then
then simply
simply enter
enterthe
the past
pastdemands
demands in
in the
thedemand
demand column.
column. IfIfthis
thisis
is caus
caus
then
then enter
enter the
the y,x
y,x pairs
pairswith
withyyfirst
firstand
and enter
enter aanew
new value
valueof
ofxx at
at the
thebottom
bottomin
in order
order to
toforecast
forecast y
Absolute

Squared

Abs Pct Err

Jan-08

438

329.727

108.273

108.273

11723.102

0.247

Feb-08

420

328.565

91.435

91.435

8360.439

0.218

Mar-08

414

327.402

86.598

86.598

7499.144

0.209

Apr-08

318

326.240

-8.240

8.240

67.902

0.026

May-08

306

325.078

-19.078

19.078

363.973

0.062

Jun-08

240

323.916

-83.916

83.916

7041.881

0.350

Jul-08

240

322.754

-82.754

82.754

6848.184

0.345

Aug-08

216

321.592

-105.592

105.592

11149.584

0.489

Sep-08

198

320.429

-122.429

122.429

14988.965

0.618

Oct-08

225

10

319.267

-94.267

94.267

8886.318

0.419

Nov-08

270

11

318.105

-48.105

48.105

2314.101

0.178

Dec-08

315

12

316.943

-1.943

1.943

3.775

0.006

Jan-09

444

13

315.781

128.219

128.219

16440.168

0.289

Feb-09

425

14

314.619

110.381

110.381

12184.049

0.260

Mar-09

423

15

313.456

109.544

109.544

11999.788

0.259

Apr-09

331

16

312.294

18.706

18.706

349.903

0.057

May-09

318

17

311.132

6.868

6.868

47.168

0.022

Jun-09

245

18

309.970

-64.970

64.970

4221.097

0.265

Jul-09

255

19

308.808

-53.808

53.808

2895.280

0.211

Aug-09

223

20

307.646

-84.646

84.646

7164.885

0.380

Sep-09

210

21

306.483

-96.483

96.483

9309.063

0.459

Oct-09

233

22

305.321

-72.321

72.321

5230.374

0.310

Nov-09

278

23

304.159

-26.159

26.159

684.302

0.094

Dec-09

322

24

302.997

19.003

19.003

361.114

0.059

Jan-10

450

25

301.835

148.165

148.165

21952.916

0.329

Feb-10

438

26

300.673

137.327

137.327

18858.795

0.314

Mar-10

434

27

299.511

134.489

134.489

18087.423

0.310

Apr-10

338

28

298.348

39.652

39.652

1572.253

0.117

May-10

331

29

297.186

33.814

33.814

1143.374

0.102

Regre
500
400
300
200
100
0
0

10

15
Column B

The seasonality is consistent but the slope is not. W

positive performance trend line, the regression plot
raw data is found to be: Y = 330.889 - 1.162X

The Slope of the trend line is negative which would i

seasonal index in Jan and Feb causes the trend line
negative slope.

Jun-10

254

30

296.024

-42.024

42.024

1766.019

0.165

Jul-10

264

31

294.862

-30.862

30.862

952.455

0.117

Aug-10

231

32

293.700

-62.700

62.700

3931.252

0.271

Sep-10

224

33

292.538

-68.538

68.538

4697.394

0.306

Oct-10

243

34

291.375

-48.375

48.375

2340.177

0.199

Nov-10

289

35

290.213

-1.213

1.213

1.472

0.004

Dec-10

335

36

289.051

45.949

45.949

2111.306

0.137

Total

0.000

2436.847

227549.393

8.204

Average

0.000

67.690

6320.816

0.228

Intercept
Slope

330.889
-1.162

Bias

MAD
SE

Forecast

287.88888889

MSE

MAPE
81.808

37
Correlation

-0.150

Coefficient of determination

0.023

nd column.
and
column. IfIfthis
thisis
is causal
causalregression
regression
tom in
ttom
in order
order to
toforecast
forecast y.
y.

10

Regression

15
Column B

20

25

30

35

40

Linear (Column B)

but the slope is not. While the 12-month moving average plotted a
ne, the regression plotted a negative trend line. A trend line based on the
30.889 - 1.162X

negative which would indicate that sales are declining over time. The high
causes the trend line on the unadjusted data to appear to have a

Multiplicative Decomposition
Enter
Enter past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area.
area. Do
Do not
not change
change the
the time
time period
period
numbers!
numbers!
Forecasting Decomposition, multiplicative

12 seasons
Data

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Month

Demand (y)

Time (x)

Average

Ratio

Seasonal

Smoothed

Unadjusted

Adjusted

Jan-08

438

309.389

1.416

1.435

305.208

295.930

424.685

Feb-08

420

309.389

1.358

1.382

303.843

296.699

410.125

Mar-08

414

309.389

1.338

1.369

302.330

297.468

407.343

Apr-08

318

309.389

1.028

1.063

299.045

298.237

317.141

May-08

306

309.389

0.989

1.029

297.402

299.006

307.651

Jun-08

240

309.389

0.776

0.796

301.434

299.775

238.679

Jul-08

240

309.389

0.776

0.818

293.491

300.544

245.767

Aug-08

216

309.389

0.698

0.722

299.230

301.313

217.504

Sep-08

198

309.389

0.640

0.681

290.786

302.083

205.692

Oct-08

225

10

309.389

0.727

0.755

297.914

302.852

228.729

Nov-08

270

11

309.389

0.873

0.902

299.409

303.621

273.798

Dec-08

315

12

309.389

1.018

1.047

300.795

304.390

318.765

Jan-09

444

13

309.389

1.435

1.435

309.389

305.159

437.930

Feb-09

425

14

309.389

1.374

1.382

307.460

305.928

422.883

Mar-09

423

15

309.389

1.367

1.369

308.902

306.697

419.981

Apr-09

331

16

309.389

1.070

1.063

311.270

307.466

326.955

May-09

318

17

309.389

1.028

1.029

309.065

308.235

317.146

Jun-09

245

18

309.389

0.792

0.796

307.714

309.004

246.027

Jul-09

255

19

309.389

0.824

0.818

311.835

309.773

253.314

Aug-09

223

20

309.389

0.721

0.722

308.927

310.543

224.166

Sep-09

210

21

309.389

0.679

0.681

308.410

311.312

211.976

Oct-09

233

22

309.389

0.753

0.755

308.506

312.081

235.700

Nov-09

278

23

309.389

0.899

0.902

308.280

312.850

282.121

Dec-09

322

24

309.389

1.041

1.047

307.479

313.619

328.430

Jan-10

450

25

309.389

1.454

1.435

313.570

314.388

451.174

Feb-10

438

26

309.389

1.416

1.382

316.864

315.157

435.640

Mar-10

434

27

309.389

1.403

1.369

316.935

315.926

432.619

Apr-10

338

28

309.389

1.092

1.063

317.852

316.695

336.769

May-10

331

29

309.389

1.070

1.029

321.700

317.464

326.642

Jun-10

254

30

309.389

0.821

0.796

319.018

318.233

253.375

Jul-10

264

31

309.389

0.853

0.818

322.841

319.002

260.861

Aug-10

231

32

309.389

0.747

0.722

320.010

319.772

230.828

Sep-10

224

33

309.389

0.724

0.681

328.970

320.541

218.260

Oct-10

243

34

309.389

0.785

0.755

321.747

321.310

242.670

Nov-10

289

35

309.389

0.934

0.902

320.478

322.079

290.443

Dec-10

335

36

309.389

1.083

1.047

319.893

322.848

338.095
Total

Average

Intercept

295.161

Slope

0.769

Ratios
Season 1

Season 2

Season 3

Season 4

Season 5

Season 6

Season 7

Season 8

Season 9

1.416

1.358

1.338

1.028

0.989

0.776

0.776

0.698

0.640

1.435

1.374

1.367

1.070

1.028

0.792

0.824

0.721

0.679

1.454

1.416

1.403

1.092

1.070

0.821

0.853

0.747

0.724

1.435

1.382

1.369

1.063

1.029

0.796

0.818

0.722

0.681

Unadjusted

Seasonal

Adjusted

37

323.617

1.435

464.419

38

324.386

1.382

448.397

39

325.155

1.369

445.256

40

325.924

1.063

346.583

41

326.693

1.029

336.138

42

327.462

0.796

260.723

350

43

328.232

0.818

268.408

300

44

329.001

0.722

237.490

250

45

329.770

0.681

224.544

46

330.539

0.755

249.640

47

331.308

0.902

298.766

48

332.077

1.047

347.760

Average
Forecasts
Period

Forecasts
500
450
400

200
150
100
50

Forecasted sales for each month of the next year. The

gives the seasonal indices, the unadjusted forecasts
found using the trend line, and the final (adjusted)
forecasts for the next year

4
Period

Unadjusted

Seasonal

10

Adjusted

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Error

|Error|

Error^2

Abs Pct Err

13.315

13.315

177.285

0.030

9.875

9.875

97.507

0.024

6.657

6.657

44.320

0.016

0.859

0.859

0.737

0.003

-1.651

1.651

2.724

0.005

1.321

1.321

1.745

0.006

-5.767

5.767

33.264

0.024

-1.504

1.504

2.262

0.007

-7.692

7.692

59.162

0.039

-3.729

3.729

13.908

0.017

-3.798

3.798

14.428

0.014

-3.765

3.765

14.174

0.012

6.070

6.070

36.850

0.014

2.117

2.117

4.483

0.005

3.019

3.019

9.117

0.007

4.045

4.045

16.359

0.012

0.854

0.854

0.729

0.003

-1.027

1.027

1.055

0.004

1.686

1.686

2.841

0.007

-1.166

1.166

1.360

0.005

-1.976

1.976

3.904

0.009

-2.700

2.700

7.288

0.012

-4.121

4.121

16.982

0.015

-6.430

6.430

41.342

0.020

-1.174

1.174

1.378

0.003

2.360

2.360

5.570

0.005

1.381

1.381

1.908

0.003

1.231

1.231

1.514

0.004

4.358

4.358

18.990

0.013

0.625

0.625

0.390

0.002

3.139

3.139

9.851

0.012

0.172

0.172

0.030

0.001

5.740

5.740

32.947

0.026

0.330

0.330

0.109

0.001

-1.443

1.443

2.084

0.005

-3.095

3.095

9.577

0.009

18.114

120.190

688.175

0.393

0.503

3.339

19.116

0.011

Bias

MAD

MSE

MAPE

SE

5.593

Season 10

Season 11

Season 12

0.727

0.873

1.018

0.753

0.899

1.041

0.785

0.934

1.083

0.755

0.902

1.047

recasts

ted

Seasonal

10
Adjusted

11

12

Forecasting
12 seasons

Data
Period

Decomposition, multiplicative

Enter
Enter past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area.
area. Do
Do not
not change
change the
the time
time
period
period numbers!
numbers!

Demand (y) Time (x)

Jan-08

438

Feb-08

420

Mar-08

414

Apr-08

318

May-08

306

Jun-08

240

Jul-08

240

Aug-08

216

Sep-08

198

Oct-08

225

Nov-08

270

Dec-08

315

Jan-09

444

Feb-09

425

Mar-09

423

Apr-09

331

May-09

318

Jun-09

245

Jul-09

255

Aug-09

223

Sep-09

210

Oct-09

233

Nov-09

278

Dec-09

322

Jan-10

450

Feb-10

438

Mar-10

434

Apr-10

338

May-10

331

Jun-10

254

Jul-10

264

Aug-10

231

Sep-10

224

Oct-10

243

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

Average Ratio

300
300.5
300.9167
301.6667
302.75
303.75
304.1667
305.4167
306
307
307.6667
308.3333
308.9167
309.4167
310.5
311.4167
312
313.0833
313.8333
314.5833
315.25
316.4167
317.25
318.1667
319.25

300.25
300.7083
301.2917
302.2083
303.25
303.9583
304.7917
305.7083
306.5
307.3333
308
308.625
309.1667
309.9583
310.9583
311.7083
312.5417
313.4583
314.2083
314.9167
315.8333
316.8333
317.7083
318.7083

Seasonal SmoothedUnadjuste
1.444452 303.2292 295.3847
1.390529 302.0433 296.2451
1.37712 300.6274 297.1056
1.071907 296.6676 297.966
1.037152 295.0388 298.8265
0.795405 301.733 299.687
0.799334 0.812066 295.5425 300.5474
0.718304 0.718878 300.4683 301.4079
0.657171 0.666251 297.1853 302.2684
0.74452 0.746007 301.6059 303.1288
0.890354 0.889918 303.3988 303.9893
1.036326 1.031788 305.2953 304.8497
1.456733 1.444452 307.3831 305.7102
1.390214 1.390529 305.6391 306.5707
1.380098 1.37712 307.1627 307.4311
1.077007 1.071907 308.7955 308.2916
1.032468 1.037152 306.6089 309.1521
0.793844 0.795405 308.0191 310.0125
0.824798 0.812066 314.0139 310.873
0.719452 0.718878 310.2057 311.7334
0.675332 0.666251 315.1965 312.5939
0.747494 0.746007 312.3297 313.4544
0.889481 0.889918 312.3884 314.3148
1.02725 1.031788 312.0796 315.1753
1.432171 1.444452 311.5369 316.0358
1.390844 1.390529 314.988 316.8962
1.374142 1.37712 315.1504 317.7567
1.066807 1.071907 315.3259 318.6171
1.041836 1.037152 319.1433 319.4776
0.796967 0.795405 319.3341 320.3381
0.812066 325.0968 321.1985
0.718878 321.3342 322.059
0.666251 336.2096 322.9195
0.746007 325.7344 323.7799

Nov-10

289

35

0.889918

Dec-10

335

36

1.031788 324.6791 325.5008

Average

324.749 324.6404

Intercept 294.5242
Slope
0.860463

Ratios
Season 1

Average

Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 Season 5 Season 6 Season 7 Season 8

0.799334 0.718304
1.4567327 1.390214 1.380098 1.077007 1.032468 0.793844 0.824798 0.719452
1.4321708 1.390844 1.374142 1.066807 1.041836 0.796967
1.4444518 1.390529 1.37712 1.071907 1.037152 0.795405 0.812066 0.718878

Forecasts
Period
Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted
37 326.36131 1.444452 471.4132
38 327.22177 1.390529 455.0114
39 328.08224 1.37712 451.8087
40 328.9427 1.071907 352.5959
41 329.80316 1.037152 342.0559
42 330.66362 0.795405 263.0116
43 331.52409 0.812066 269.2194
44 332.38455 0.718878 238.9439
45 333.24501 0.666251 222.0248
46 334.10547 0.746007 249.2449
47 334.96594 0.889918 298.0922
48 335.8264 1.031788 346.5017

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Adjusted Error
|Error| Error^2 Abs Pct Err
426.6689 11.3311 11.3311 128.3939
02.59%
411.9375 8.062548 8.062548 65.00468
01.92%
409.1501 4.849903 4.849903 23.52156
01.17%
319.3918 -1.39181 1.39181 1.937136
00.44%
309.9285 -3.92845 3.928453 15.43274
01.28%
238.3726 1.627396 1.627396 2.648417
00.68%
244.0643 -4.06431 4.064313 16.51864
01.69%
216.6754 -0.67544 0.675438 0.456216
00.31%
201.3866 -3.38662 3.38662 11.4692
01.71%
226.1361 -1.1361 1.136096 1.290715
00.50%
270.5255 -0.52552 0.525521 0.276172
00.19%
314.5403 0.459686 0.459686 0.211311
00.15%
441.5837 2.416346 2.416346 5.838726
00.54%
426.2954 -1.29543 1.29543 1.678139
00.30%
423.3696 -0.36962 0.36962 0.136619
00.09%
330.4598 0.540163 0.540163 0.291776
00.16%
320.6376 -2.63762 2.637616 6.957016
00.83%
246.5856 -1.5856 1.585601 2.514132
00.65%
252.4493 2.55066 2.55066 6.505866
01.00%
224.0982 -1.09825 1.098246 1.206145
00.49%
208.266 1.733971 1.733971 3.006655
00.83%
233.839 -0.83902 0.839025 0.703962
00.36%
279.7144 -1.71441 1.714413 2.939213
00.62%
325.1941 -3.19409 3.194093 10.20223
00.99%
456.4984 -6.49841 6.498414 42.22938
01.44%
440.6534 -2.65341 2.653407 7.040571
00.61%
437.5891 -3.58914 3.589144 12.88195
00.83%
341.5279 -3.52786 3.527864 12.44582
01.04%
331.3468 -0.34678 0.346779 0.120255
00.10%
254.7986 -0.7986 0.798599 0.63776
00.31%
260.8344 3.165633 3.165633 10.02123
01.20%
231.5211 -0.52105 0.521055 0.271498
00.23%
215.1454 8.854562 8.854562 78.40327
03.95%
241.542 1.458047 1.458047 2.125901
00.60%

288.9033 0.096694 0.096694

0.00935

00.03%

335.8479 -0.84787 0.847872 0.718887

00.25%
Total
0.521283 93.77214 476.0471
30.11%
0.01448 2.604782 13.22353
00.84%
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
SE
4.651721
Season 9 Season 10Season 11Season 12
0.657171 0.74452 0.890354 1.036326
0.675332 0.747494 0.889481 1.02725
0.666251 0.746007 0.889918 1.031788

Forecasting

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing

Enter
Enter alpha
alpha and
and beta
beta (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter
aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for
all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha
Beta
Data

Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
Period 6
Period 7

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Demand

Period 8
Next period

Smoothed
Forecast
Forecast, Smoothed Including
Ft
Trend, Tt Trend, FITt Error

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Absolute Squared
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
Total
Average

0
0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Bias

MAD
SE

MSE
0

Abs Pct
Err
#DIV/0!

Forecasting
1

#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
MAPE

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
Value

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1

Time
Demand

Smoothed Forecast, Ft

KATE WALSH ASSOCIATES

Forecasting

Exponential smoothing

Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting
forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows
above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha
Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
Period 6

0.1
Demand
70
68.5
64.8
71.7
71.3
72.8

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast Error
Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
65
5
5
25
07.14%
65.5
3
3
9
04.38%
65.8
-1
1
1
01.54%
65.7
6
6
36
08.37%
66.3
5
5
25
07.01%
66.8
Total
Average

6
6
24
26
4 4.333333
Bias
MAD

36 0.0824175824
132
36.69%
22
06.11%
MSE MAPE

SE 5.744563
Next period
DISCUSSION

67.4

5.29: Using exponential smoothing forecast for August's income is $67,400.

Forecasting
74
72
70
68
Value

66
64
62
60
1

3
Time
70

65

KATE WALSH ASSOCIATES

Forecasting

Alpha
Data
Period
MONTH 1
MONTH 2
MONTH 3
MONTH 4
MONTH 5
MONTH 6

Exponential smoothing

0.3
Demand
70
68.5
64.8
71.7
71.3
72.8

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast Error
Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
65
5
5
25
07.14%
66.5
2
2
4
02.92%
67.1
-2.3
2.3
5.29
03.55%
66.41
5.29
5.29 27.9841
07.38%
67.997
3.303
3.303 10.90981
04.63%
68.9879
Total
Average

3.8121
3.8121 14.53211 0.052364011
17.1051 21.7051 87.71602
30.86%
2.85085 3.617517 14.61934
05.14%
Bias
MAD
MSE MAPE
SE 4.682841

Next period
DISCUSSION

70.13153

5.30: Using alpha of 0.1 ,MAD value is 4.333 while using alpha of 0.3 ,MAD value is 3.618. Based
on this using alpha of 0.3 provides a better forecast since it has a lower MAD value.

Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 an
a
forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting fore
for
above
above the
the starting
starting forecas
forecas

Forecasting
74
72
70
68
Value

66
64
62
60
1

3
Time
70

65

Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting
forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast is
is not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows
above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.