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Blood Bank
Course:
Corporate Finance
Course No.:
B5500-400
Term:
Fall 2016
Instructor:
Roger Mesznik
Group 6
Sept 9th, 2016
Institution:
Faculty:
Course:
B5500-400
Corporate Finance
Fall 2016
Instructor: Prof. Roger Mesznik
Address: Uris Hall; Room 218F
Ph: 1.212.854.5308
email: rm21@columbia.edu
HOW TO REFLECT OPERATING FLOWS IN FINANCIAL FLOWS AND STATEMENTS
This material is distributed solely for the purpose of helping students
It is not a substitute for attending classes
It is to be used by registered students only
All uses must conform to class needs, and may not give rise to conflicts
The material may not to be used for any unrelated activity, or any commercial exploitation
The author retains all rights to the material, its explanation, and the examples
The explanations are not meant to convey a single correct answer
The author retains the right to alter and modify all elements, including answers and explanations
These handouts form only a part of our analysis and discussion
We model a transaction as described below
As we discuss the numbers and concepts, we will review all necessary definitions.
We assume originally that the center is a not-for-profit entity
We will introduce taxes later as quite a few of you will work in taxable entities.
Please know immediately that the introduction of taxes has a non-linear effect.
For example, if your tax rate is 30%, it does not mean that your after tax profits will be
equal to 70% of your pretax profits.
For reasons of convenience and accuracy, we prefer to enter all parameters in one place.
This allows us to make modifications as needed, without risking crucial omissions.
Furthermore, it allows us to create some sensitivity analyses in a very efficient manner.
Clearly, you may want to ascertain that all assumptions are reasonable and consistent with each o
As you will see below, some assumptions are more crucial for the validity of the outcome than othe
Frequently asked questions:
Should we embed safety factors in the individual estimates and projections as we proceed?
Is it not presumptuous to forecast anything beyond a handful of years into the future?
Are there any models one can use when making such forecasts?
If I know that my forecast for any one item is a range forecast and not a point forecast, how
and where is this knowledge embedded in my calculation?
If it turns out after the fact that my realizations were close to my forecasts, is this a proof
of the quality of my work?
Conversely, if it turns out after the fact that my forecasts were way off the mark, does that
mean that my work was of lower quality?
What is risk? Uncertainty? Unpredictability? And how do they impinge on my work?
Project:
Products:
Sold to:
Parameters:
Horizon
Discount rate:
Discount rate:
Expected inflation:
Depreciation of equipmt:
Overhead
Overhead
Delay in reimbursement:
Delay in payments:
Loss rate of donations:
Gift to donors:
Var costs
of collection bag etc
Phlebotomist
Supervisor, Fill-in
Seats p. phlebotomist
Seats in donation area
Price per unit sold
Centrifuge
Cost of centrifuge
Capacity of centrifuge
10.00 years
7.55% Cost p.a.
Nominal or real?
2.25% p.a.
SL
By use
MACRS 3 yrs
4,000.0 p.m.
4.00 per
donation
0.25 years
1.00 month
15.00%
10.00
Issues:
Engineering? Financial?
COC? WACC? Hurdle rate? Expected return?
Assume it is across the board
For financials
For analysis
For taxes, when needed
Grows w inflation, imposed as a lump sum
for billing and management of the center
grows also with inflation
12.00
Rises w inflation
17.00
5.00
4.00
31.00
87.00
6.00
54,000
100.00
years
When acquired
units per week, net of downtime
Opening times
6.00
Full days a week
Opening times
50.00
Weeks a year
Cost/phleb
1,000.0
per week, increase w inflation
Each phlebotomist and supervisor work only
5.00 days per week
Downtime due to uneven use
18.00%
Cost per supervisor
1,700.0
per week, increase w inflation
Plan:
Open with
3.00 phlebotomists for first year
expect to increase the number as needed
Supervisor must always be there
expect to start with
8,000 donations first year
The collection center for blood donations is selling cells and plasma to its own hospital as well as others in th
The project is 10 years horizon.
Given assumptions:
Economic assumpions:
Overview:
* no inflation applied
Centrifuge assumptions:
Other assumptions:
For the purposes of this exercise we have made the following assumptions:
Centrifuge makes 100 units per week, in 10 years thus we need 2 centrifuges to make 195 units
The loan of $150 000 is interest free
We have also calculated the maximum capacity including downtime, which is 13,94
Sales
Sales per week
Sales per day per 3 phleb
Sales per day per 1 phleb
1
8,000
160
32
10.67
2
8,194
164
33
10.93
3
8,389
168
34
11.19
4
8,583
172
34
11.44
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
Phlebotomist
Supervisor
Phleb Capacity Check
OK
Centrifuge
Capacity per week
Cost of Centrifuge
Deprec
Capacity Check
2
200
108,000
18,000
Ok
2
200
2
200
2
200
18,000
Ok
18,000
Ok
18,000
Ok
Wages
Phleb
Supervisor
150,000
85,000
153,375
86,913
156,826
88,868
160,355
90,868
OK
OK
OK
5
8,778
176
35
11.70
6
8,972
179
36
11.96
7
9,167
183
37
12.22
8
9,361
187
37
12.48
9
9,556
191
38
12.74
10
9,750
195
39
13.00
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
OK
OK
OK
2
200
2
200
18,000
Ok
163,962
92,912
OK
OK
OK
2
200
2
200
2
200
18,000
Ok
2
200
108,000
18,000
Ok
18,000
Ok
18,000
Ok
18,000
Ok
167,652
95,003
171,424
97,140
175,281
99,326
179,225
101,561
183,257
103,846
13.94
Centrifuge makes 100 units per week, in 10 years we need 2 centrifuges to make 195 units
1
Assets
Current Assets
Trade receivables
Cash
PPE
First Cost
CY Depreciation
Accumulated Depr
PPE net
Total assets
147,900
31,617
151,495
128,046
155,090
221,065
158,684
308,896
162,279
389,495
108,000
(18,000)
0
90,000
108,000
(18,000)
(18,000)
72,000
108,000
(18,000)
(36,000)
54,000
108,000
(18,000)
(54,000)
36,000
108,000
(18,000)
(72,000)
18,000
269,517
351,540
430,154
503,581
569,774
Liabilities
Current Liabilities
Trade Payables
LT Debt
Loan
36,917
38,178
39,478
40,816
42,195
150,000
150,000
150,000
150,000
150,000
Retained earnings
82,600
163,362
240,677
312,765
377,579
269,517
351,540
430,154
503,581
569,774
10
165,874
460,415
169,469
410,631
173,064
452,282
176,658
472,303
180,253
313,866
108,000
(18,000)
(90,000)
-
108,000
(18,000)
90,000
108,000
(18,000)
(18,000)
72,000
108,000
(18,000)
(36,000)
54,000
108,000
(18,000)
(54,000)
36,000
626,289
670,099
697,346
702,961
530,119
43,615
45,078
46,585
48,136
49,734
150,000
150,000
150,000
150,000
432,673
475,021
500,761
504,825
480,385
626,289
670,099
697,346
702,961
530,119
Sales
CoGS
591,600
605,979
620,358
634,738
649,117
Salary
Overhead
Gift to donors
Var Cost
Gross Profit
GM%
235,000
32,000
80,000
96,000
148,600
25.1%
240,288
33,515
83,788
100,546
147,842
24.4%
245,694
35,083
87,706
105,248
146,628
23.6%
251,222
36,703
91,758
110,110
144,944
22.8%
256,875
38,379
95,948
115,138
142,776
22.0%
Operating expenses:
Overhead
Depreciation
48,000
18,000
49,080
18,000
51,313
18,000
54,856
18,000
59,962
18,000
Operating income
Op Margin %
82,600
55.6%
80,762
54.6%
77,314
52.7%
72,088
49.7%
64,814
45.4%
Net income
82,600
80,762
77,314
72,088
64,814
Retained earnings
82,600
80,762
77,314
72,088
64,814
Income Statement
Profitability Analysis:
- The Blood Bank benefits greatly from being capitalized by a 0% interest rate
loan from the Hospital and having zero equity invested
- The Blood bank's profitability both from a GM% and from an OP Margin% basis
decreases over time, which is driven by the increase in inflation over time for
the Blood Bank's costs, but no corresponding increase in the sales price of
blood
- To ensure profitability the blood bank should insist that the price of blood paid
by the Hospital increases with inflation as well.
10
663,496
677,875
692,254
706,633
721,013
262,654
40,112
100,281
120,337
140,112
21.1%
268,564
41,904
104,759
125,711
136,938
20.2%
274,607
43,755
109,388
131,266
133,238
19.2%
280,785
45,669
114,173
137,007
128,999
18.3%
287,103
47,647
119,117
142,941
124,205
17.2%
67,018
18,000
76,590
18,000
89,498
18,000
106,935
18,000
130,644
18,000
55,094
39.3%
42,348
30.9%
25,740
19.3%
4,064
3.2%
(24,440)
-19.7%
55,094
42,348
25,740
4,064
(24,440)
55,094
42,348
25,740
4,064
(24,440)
80,762
18,000
(3,595)
1,261
96,429
77,314
18,000
(3,595)
1,299
93,019
82,600
18,000
(147,900)
36,917
(10,383)
Equipment
Investing
(108,000)
(108,000)
Loan
Financing
150,000
150,000
31,617
31,617
31,617
96,429
128,046
128,046
93,019
221,065
72,088
18,000
(3,595)
1,339
87,832
64,814
18,000
(3,595)
1,379
80,599
55,094
18,000
(3,595)
1,420
70,920
221,065
87,832
308,896
308,896
80,599
389,495
389,495
70,920
460,415
42,348
18,000
(3,595)
1,463
58,216
(108,000)
(108,000)
460,415
(49,784)
410,631
25,740
18,000
(3,595)
1,507
41,652
4,064
18,000
(3,595)
1,552
20,020
410,631
41,652
452,282
452,282
20,020
472,303
10
(24,440)
18,000
(3,595)
1,598
(8,437)
(150,000)
(150,000)
472,303
(158,437)
313,866
80,762
18,000
(3,595)
1,261
96,429
77,314
18,000
(3,595)
1,299
93,019
82,600
18,000
(147,900)
36,917
(10,383)
Equipment
Investing
(108,000)
(108,000)
Loan
Financing
150,000
150,000
31,617
31,617
31,617
96,429
128,046
128,046
93,019
221,065
$2,013,099
NPV:
- The NPV of the project is positive at a 7.55% discount rate, so therefore the
managers of the blood bank should proceed with the project.
- However, the blood bank should be wary of the inflation issues that may
cause profitability to decrease as discussed in the I/S analysis.
herefore the
hat may
72,088
18,000
(3,595)
1,339
87,832
64,814
18,000
(3,595)
1,379
80,599
55,094
18,000
(3,595)
1,420
70,920
221,065
87,832
308,896
308,896
80,599
389,495
389,495
70,920
460,415
42,348
18,000
(3,595)
1,463
58,216
(108,000)
(108,000)
460,415
(49,784)
410,631
25,740
18,000
(3,595)
1,507
41,652
4,064
18,000
(3,595)
1,552
20,020
410,631
41,652
452,282
452,282
20,020
472,303
10
(24,440)
18,000
(3,595)
1,598
(8,437)
(150,000)
(150,000)
472,303
(158,437)
313,866
Sales
CoGS
591,600
619,614
648,589
678,554
709,539
Salary
Var Cost
Gross Profit
GM%
235,000
96,000
260,600
44.1%
240,288
100,546
278,780
45.0%
245,694
105,248
297,647
45.9%
251,222
110,110
317,221
46.7%
256,875
115,138
337,526
47.6%
Operating expenses:
Gift to donors
Overhead
Overhead
Depreciation
80,000
48,000
32,000
(18,000)
83,788
49,080
33,515
(18,000)
87,706
51,313
35,083
(18,000)
91,758
54,856
36,703
(18,000)
95,948
59,962
38,379
(18,000)
Operating income
Op Margin %
118,600
45.5%
130,397
46.8%
141,545
47.6%
151,904
47.9%
161,236
47.8%
Net income
118,600
130,397
141,545
151,904
161,236
Retained earnings
118,600
130,397
141,545
151,904
161,236
36,000
49,635
64,230
79,816
96,422
Income Statement
Monetary Increase
from the base case
Sensitivity Analysis:
- The biggest challenge to maintaining profitability for the blood bank over time
is the impact of inflation on costs but not on selling price.
- In this scenario we add an inflation adjuster to the price of blood, the result is
that the blood bank is able to maintain profitability over time.
10
741,574
774,693
808,926
844,308
880,872
262,654
120,337
358,584
48.4%
268,564
125,711
380,418
49.1%
274,607
131,266
403,053
49.8%
280,785
137,007
426,515
50.5%
287,103
142,941
450,828
51.2%
100,281
67,018
40,112
(18,000)
104,759
76,590
41,904
(18,000)
109,388
89,498
43,755
(18,000)
114,173
106,935
45,669
(18,000)
119,117
130,644
47,647
(18,000)
169,173
47.2%
175,166
46.0%
178,412
44.3%
177,738
41.7%
171,420
38.0%
169,173
175,166
178,412
177,738
171,420
169,173
175,166
178,412
177,738
171,420
114,079
132,818
152,672
173,674
195,859
Sales
CoGS
665,550
671,713
677,875
684,038
690,200
Salary
Var Cost
Gross Profit
GM%
235,000
108,000
322,550
48.5%
240,288
100,546
330,879
49.3%
245,694
105,248
326,933
48.2%
251,222
110,110
322,705
47.2%
256,875
115,138
318,187
46.1%
Operating expenses:
Gift to donors
Overhead
Overhead
Depreciation
90,000
48,000
36,000
(18,000)
90,833
49,080
36,333
(18,000)
91,667
51,313
36,667
(18,000)
92,500
54,856
37,000
(18,000)
93,333
59,962
37,333
(18,000)
Operating income
Op Margin %
166,550
51.6%
172,633
52.2%
165,287
50.6%
156,350
48.4%
145,559
45.7%
Net income
166,550
172,633
165,287
156,350
145,559
Retained earnings
166,550
172,633
165,287
156,350
145,559
Monetary Increase
from the base case
83,950
91,870
87,972
84,262
80,744
Income Statement
Sensitivity Analysis:
The increase in sales with increase just in variable and operational costs surely
gives the Blood bank significant increase in Net income and positive retained
earnings at the end of the project life.
10
696,363
702,525
708,688
714,850
721,013
262,654
120,337
313,372
45.0%
268,564
125,711
308,250
43.9%
274,607
131,266
302,815
42.7%
280,785
137,007
297,057
41.6%
287,103
142,941
290,969
40.4%
94,167
67,018
37,667
(18,000)
95,000
76,590
38,000
(18,000)
95,833
89,498
38,333
(18,000)
96,667
106,935
38,667
(18,000)
97,500
130,644
39,000
(18,000)
132,520
42.3%
116,660
37.8%
97,150
32.1%
72,789
24.5%
41,825
14.4%
132,520
116,660
97,150
72,789
41,825
132,520
116,660
97,150
72,789
41,825
77,426
74,313
71,410
68,725
66,264