Agent-Based Modeling for

Public Health
Jay Schindler, PhD
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Public Health Division
Atlanta, GA
jay.schindler@ngc.com

John H. Holmes, PhD

University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine
Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Center for Public Health Initiatives
jhholmes@mail.med.upenn.edu
 Beginnings
Welcome

Introduction

Audience Assessment

Course Overview
 Schedule for today
Session 1
Introduction to agent-based modeling
Introduction to NetLogo
Modeling and simulation process (part 1)

Break

Session 2
Modeling and simulation process (part 2)
Developing an agent-based model with NetLogo
Wrap-up
 Introduction to
Agent-Based Modeling
The pur pose of science is not to analyze or descr ibe,
but to make useful models of the wor ld. A model is
useful if it allows us to get use out of it.

--Edwar d de Bono

Essentially, all models ar e wr ong, but some ar e

useful. --Geor ge Box
 What is modeling?
Modeling is creating and using a simplified
representation of objects, processes, and
environments. This can help to better
Identify, describe, and understand the
complex interactions and relationships in
dynamic systems
Communicate and share relevant
information or knowledge pertinent to specific
issues or domains
Predict potential outcomes or results of a
dynamic system based on initial parameters.
 Benefits of modeling
Support policy development & comparison.
Guide surveillance and data collection activities
Discover emergent behavior in complex systems
Identify system variables and relationships critical
to system change.
Enhance decision-making process.
Target evaluation & monitoring of real world
systems
Provide more effective use of resources ($$$,
personnel, equipment, supplies, etc.)
 Types of modeling
Equation Based Modeling
Equations mathematically define conditions and
changes in stocks (accumulators) and flows
(processes).
Agents are defined as an aggregate.
Consistency
Agent Based Modeling
Algorithms specify conditions and changes in
each agent based on values of parameters
Agents have individual characteristics
Butterfly effect
Introduction to NetLogo
 Building a model using NetLogo

Identify goals, topic, framework

Specify agents and environments
Determine relevant interactions
Develop an interface & displays
Design and create script
Run and troubleshoot the model
Validate and verify model
 General purpose modeling software
Strong educational components
Friendly IDE with its own procedural language

Freely available (not open source)

Supports an API

Cross-platform for Windows, Mac, Linux

Java based

Extensive library of models included

Additional models freely available
Online applets
 When you open NetLogo

Here is where the

model is simulated.

Well discuss
these functions
as we go along.
 Accessing the Models Library

1. Click on File menu

2. Select Models Library
Lets pick one: AIDS
Setting the parameter values

Heres where you get to adjust the

input parameters specified by the
programmer.
 Starting the simulation

Clicking on the Setup button populates the model

agents parameterized with the initial conditions.

Clicking on the Go button starts the simulation, or

pauses/resumes one that is running.
 Running the simulation

This simulation was stopped

after 56 agents were
infected. The agents colors
reflect infection status (see
legend in graph at left).
Note where an uninfected
agent is in proximity to an
infected one. In subsequent
iterations, the uninfected
agent might convert to HIV+
with some probability based
on infectiousness and
frequency of sexual contact.
Display of infections over time
 Examples in NetLogo
Systems Dynamics (Equation) Model

Agent Based (Procedural) Model

Developing an agent-based model
Who are the end users or intended audience?
What is the purpose of the model and the questions it is
intended to answer?
Appropriate ABM platform & model development strategy
Identify relevant data sources and required agent-related
data
System analysis
Agents , agent behaviors, & agent interactions
Backed by theory and data
Develop model through multiple iterations
Examine output to assure links between agent behaviors and
system behaviors
Validate and verify model
Overview of the modeling process

Model concept development

(Conceptualization)

Model construction (Formulation)

Model testing (Testing)

Model dissemination (Implementation)

The modeling process

http://www.idiagram.com/ideas/models.html
Model Concept Development
 Model concept development
What is the problem / issue / concern?

How can we identify those HIV/AIDS communication

prevention strategies that are most cost-effective for
African countries?
 Model concept development
What is the purpose / goal of developing the
model?

Compare communication intervention approaches that

distribute messages about using condoms so we can
understand which factors most influence their successful
adoption, help save lives, and help save African
agencies or governments financial resources.
 Model concept development
What audiences and applications are driving the
development of the model?

HIV/AIDS interventionists: Compare effectiveness of

communication models relevant to HIV/AIDS prevention
African HIV/AIDS health program planners: Determine
most effective strategies to reduce the spread of AIDS
 Model concept development
What level of abstraction or aggregation should the
model attain?

Function at a community level (approximately 1000 2500

people). Where individuals can interact with other
individuals and health workers, travel to clinics or centers,
and allow social interaction to play an important role.
NOT at the level of biochemical processes within the body,
nor at the national level where countries interact through
policy, trade, and politics.
 Model concept development
What are the system boundaries to this model?
Identify essential, aggregated, directional elements
What elements are essential to generate the behavior(s) of
interest and must be included in the model? What elements
are deemed irrelevant and should be excluded from the
model?

Improve HIV/AIDS information levels in individuals, increase

mass media messaging, change communication levels among
males or females.
Irrelevant: national leadership changes, individual drug use,
individual hygiene practices
Model Construction
 Model construction
Which agents (and environments) should be
included in (or excluded from) the model?

Include: individuals, clinics/hospitals, mass media

channels

Exclude: HIV/AIDS educators, sex workers, individual TV

or radio stations
 Model construction
What are the initial parameters (and their
conditions) in the agents? Are these conditions
distributed along a continuum or identical?

Individuals have gender (m or f), HIV status (0 or 1),

communication messages from like gender (#),
communication messages from different gender (#),
mass media behavior change status (0 or 1), peer
communication behavior change status (0 or 1)
Initial values set by input boxes. Default values are
 Model construction
How do agents interact with other agents?
How do agents interact with the environment?
How do variables (stocks or flows) influence
other variables (stocks or flows)? Where do
feedback loops occur?

Individuals meet other individuals and share information.

With enough information, condom behavior changes.
Individuals interact with mass media channel
(environment), receive information, and change condom
behavior.
 Model construction
How do exposures occur? How do agents
influence others? Are there synergistic
interactions? Does learning occur?

Agents influence other agents through random mixing.

When two or more agents share the same space,
communication may (probabilistic) occur.
Learning occurs when people are exposed to messages
and exceed a mastery threshold.
( if count > threshold then behavior := new )
Model Testing
 Model testing
Structural Validity: Model aligned to conceptual
parameters (i.e., problem, purpose, goals,
audience, applications, system boundaries)?

Intervention models only examine communication

strategies, limiting the scope of the modeling goal (e.g.,
compare various intervention strategies)
 Model testing
Computational Validity: Model is free of
algorithmic, mathematical, and logic errors?

Individuals dont save the intervention program any

money UNTIL they have adopted proactive condom
use? After individuals adopt new behavior, they save
the intervention program money indefinitely?
 Model testing
Behavioral Validity: Model is plausible over the
range of variables? Parameters are responsive
to changes in the system?

Peer-to-peer communication model follows S-shaped

curve typical of random mixing models where individuals
reach a threshold of exposure
Changing the communication success parameter
influences the timeframe for the population to absorb
the message.
 Model testing
Empirical Validity: Model provides results that
are comparable to (or compatible with) real-
world events or observations.

Do we have data that can be used to compare predicted

and actual outcomes?
(Need to test this when the model is more complex and
complete.)
Model Dissemination
 Model dissemination
What are the essential system structures, critical
variables, and important initial conditions that
are informative?

Discussion of mass media intervention approaches,

mixing model of participants, exposure to messages ,
and behavioral change system.
Assumptions of exposure to peers, permanent behavior
change, barriers to communication, gender roles
 Model dissemination
What are the synergistic effects, emergent
behaviors, and insights that illuminate
theory/practice?

Exponential growth of peers communicating messages

can lead to rapid behavior change over time.
 Model dissemination
What are appropriate applications, policy
implications, and opportunities for careful
extrapolation from the model?

Comparing relative exposure to different mass media

channels.
Linking cost analyses to mass media interventions may
help clarify policy decisions for future intervention.
 Review of the modeling process
Model concept development (Conceptualization)
Problem Purpose/Goals Applications/Audience
Essential Elements & Exclusions: System Boundaries
Model construction (Formulation)
Agents & Environments
Conditions & Parameters in Agents & Environments
Agent-Agent & Agent-Environment Interactions
Exposure, Influence, & Interactive Behavior
Synergistic Effects & Learning
Initial Conditions
Model testing (Testing)
Structural validity: Model aligned to conceptual parameters
Computational validity: Eliminate algorithmic, mathematical, & logic errors
Behavioral validity: Parameter sensitivity, plausibility over variable range,
robust
Empirical validity: Results compatible with/comparable to real-world
observations
Model dissemination (Implementation)
Essential system structures, critical variables, important initial conditions
Synergistic effects, emergent behaviors, insights that illuminate
theory/practice
Appropriate application, policy implications, opportunities for extrapolation
 Agent-based modeling
considerations
Costs:
$$ and Proprietary
Open source or Free
Training
Tutorials
User base and support
Developer support and software updates
Computer programming skills required or preferred?
Java, C, Python, R, etc.?
Educational role or capability
Interface for user development or group settings
Power and speed
Access to HPC, cluster or grid computing
GPU use capability
Modeling and Simulation in
Public Health
Modeling examples in public health

MIDAS (Models of Infectious Disease Agent

Study)
https://www.epimodels.org/midas/about.do
Maxi-Vac 1.0 & Maxi-Vac Alternative
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/smallpox/vaccination/maxi-
vac/index.asp
Complex Systems Modeling for Obesity
Research
http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2009/jul/09_0017.htm
Milsteins Health Bound simulation for training
http://forio.com/simulate/manager/cdc/health-bound/index.html
Some demonstrations
An Epidemiology Application

Modeling disease outbreaks

 An Intervention Application

Modeling social or behavioral change

An Supply Chain Application

Modeling resource delivery

An Economic Application

Modeling economic evaluations

Wrap-up
 Resources to help you
Online tutorials and introductions
Google it!
Resource sites
SwarmWiki
(http://www.swarm.org/index.php/Main_Page )
Agent Based Computational Economics Leigh Tesfatsion
(http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/ace.htm )
Journals
JASSS (Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation)
(http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/JASSS.html )
Organizations
NAACSOS
( http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/naacsos/ )
Tools
 Agent-based modeling tools
NetLogo (http://ccl.sesp.northwestern.edu/netlogo/ )
Repast Simphony (http://repast.sourceforge.net/ )
MASON (http://www.cs.gmu.edu/~eclab/projects/mason/ )
SWARM (http://www.swarm.org/index.php/Swarm_main_page )
AnyLogic (http://www.xjtek.com/ )

Comparison of tools:
http://www.swarm.org/index.php/Tools_for_Agent-Based_Modelling
 Some references
Albin, S. (1997). Building a system dynamics model. Part 1:
Conceptualization
http://sysdyn.clexchange.org/sdep/Roadmaps/RM8/D-4597.pdf
Bossel, H. (2007). Systems and models: Complexity, dynamics,
evolution, sustainability. Books on Demand GmbH, Norderstedt,
Germany.
Doran, J. (200x). Agent design for agent-based modeling.
http://cswww.essex.ac.uk/staff/doran/doran_revisedviennapaper.PD
F
Luna-Reyes, Luis F. (2003). Model conceptualization: a critical
review.
http://sysdyn.clexchange.org/sdep/Roadmaps/RM8/D-4597.pdf
Macal, C. & North, M. (2000). Tutorial on agent based modeling and
simulation Part 2: How to model with agents.
http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1218130
Questions??