CASE STUDY 1: Forecasting attendance at SWU Football Games

Southwestern University wanted to forecast the attendance of the football audience and try to
overcome the problem related to incapability of the existing stadium to cope with the growing
number of football audience. SWU president would like to know when exactly the existing
stadium would "max out", so the football powerhouse could decide when to expand the
present stadium, which can only house 54,000 audience.
The following data is for the game attendance from the past six seasons ( 2005-2010):
Year / Game
2005 Game 1
2005 Game 2
2005 Game 3
2005 Game 4
2005 Game 5
2006 Game 1
2006 Game 2
2006 Game 3
2006 Game 4
2006 Game 5
2007 Game 1
2007 Game 2
2007 Game 3
2007 Game 4
2007 Game 5

Attendanc
e
34200
39800
38200
26900
35100
36100
40200
39100
25300
36200
35900
46500
43100
27900
39200

Year / Game

Attendance

2008 Game 1
2008 Game 2
2008 Game 3
2008 Game 4
2008 Game 5
2009 Game 1
2009 Game 2
2009 Game 3
2009 Game 4
2009 Game 5
2010 Game 1
2010 Game 2
2010 Game 3
2010 Game 4
2010 Game 5

41900
46100
43900
30100
40500
42500
48200
44200
33900
47800
46900
50100
45900
36300
49900

1)

Summary of the Forecasting Models (appendices from QM Software included)

Nave
Moving Average
(3 periods)
Weighted Moving
Average
(3 period: 3, 2, 1)
Exponential smoothing
(alpha = 0.1)
Exponential smoothing
(alpha = 0.5)
Trend projection

Seasonal Indices with

Trends

Forecast of
attendees for
the next
period(s) of
time
49,900

Bias

MAD

MSE

MAPE

541.379

6865.517

69,856,200

.189

44,033

491.36

6,138.27

59,540,560

.169

44,700

440.74

6385.19

59,712,760

.178

42,330

2803.41

6040.66

44,750,020

.156

45,717

794.28

5,880.56

50,755,960

.163

31=46,217
32=46,636
33=47,054
34=47,473
35=47,891
36=48,310
37=48,728
38=49,147
39=49,566
40=49,984
31=48,306
32=55,118
33=51,667
34=35,953
35=49,503
36=50,747
37=57,875
38=54,226
39=37,716
40=51,907

0.001

4,355.70

31,285,700

.122

-33.126

1428.865

2,831,473

.036

Based on the above models, the best forecast method would be the Seasonal Indices with
Trends Model, followed by the trend projection Model. Both Models can forecast the trend
for the next periods more accurately with small percentage of error (12.2% for trend
projection and 3.6% error seasonal indices). The other methods have limitations of
forecasting the demand at "the next period" only and have large percentage of forecasting
errors.

For the trend projection method, the maximum number of attendees for the year 2011 is
forecasted to swell to 48,891 during Game 5 and 49,984 for the last game for the year 2012.
The average forecast attendees for the year 2011 would be 47,054 and for the year 2012
would be 49,147.
Whereas for the Seasonal Indices with Trends model, the maximum number of attendees for
the year 2011 is forecasted to go beyond the stadium capacity at 55,118 attendees during
Game 2 and 57,875 for the second game of the year 2012.
The calculation using the Trend Projection Model
Y = 33242.76 +418.532(x) , where x= Period (game) and Y=Demand (attendees)
54000 = 33242.76 +418.532(x)
418.532x
= 54000 -33242.76
x
= 20,757.24 / 418.532
x
= 49.59 (period)
According to the Trend Projection Method, based from the calculation, the stadium, will
exceed its capacity of 54,000 seats at the final game (fifth game) in the year 2014.
The calculation using the Seasonal Indices with Trends Model
The seasonal indices for Game 2 is the highest, with 1.156. Therefore, we will try to replace
period 32 (Year 2011, Game 2)
Y = (32413.23 +476.941(32))(1.156) , where x= Period (game) and Y=Demand (attendees)
Y = (32413.23 +476.941(32))(1.156)
Y = (32413.23 +15262.11)(1.156)
Y = (47675.34)(1.156)
Y = 55,113
According to the Seasonal Indices with Trends Model, based from the calculation, the
stadium, will exceed its capacity of 54,000 seats at the second game in the year 2011.
As we can see, selecting the right forecasting method is important for decision-making. In
this case, using other forecasting methods, the capacity of the stadium is forecasted to remain
sufficient up to year 2014. However, taking into consideration trend in forecasting the
demand, the stadium will no longer capable to accommodate the attendees during the second
game in the Year 2011.

2. In order to calculate projected revenues, we will use the Seasonal Indices with Trend
Model.
Based upon the projected attendance and tickets prices of $20 in 2011 and $21
(a 5% increase) in 2012, the projected revenues are:
Projected Revenues

= Total Forecasted Attendees x Ticket Price

Projected Revenues (2011)

= Total Forecasted Attendees x Ticket Price

= 240,547 x $20
= $4,810,940

Projected Revenues (2012)

= Total Forecasted Attendees x Ticket Price

= 252,471 x $21
= $5,301,891

3. The school have 3 options to consider:

a) To expand the existing stadium by adding more seats to increase capacity of the stadium.
b) To build new, larger stadium to accommodate for its growing attendees.
c) To raise ticket price by more than 5%, hopefully to temporarily reduce the number of
attendees until expansion / new building plan are ready. Zoning tickets could also be
introduce, whereby the best seats could be sold at higher price to the VIPs. The extra revenue
could be used to invest in the expansion plan or building of new stadium.