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Question

General Certificate of Education

Advanced Subsidiary Examination
January 2012

Mark

1
2
3

Mathematics

MS/SS1A/W

Unit Statistics 1A

Statistics

Unit Statistics 1A
Tuesday 17 January 2012

TOTAL

9.00 am to 10.15 am

For this paper you must have:

*
the blue AQA booklet of formulae and statistical tables.
You may use a graphics calculator.
A

Time allowed
*
1 hour 15 minutes
Instructions
*
Use black ink or black ball-point pen. Pencil should only be used for
drawing.
*
Fill in the boxes at the top of this page.
*
Answer all questions.
*
Write the question part reference (eg (a), (b)(i) etc) in the left-hand
margin.
*
You must answer the questions in the spaces provided. Do not write
outside the box around each page.
*
Show all necessary working; otherwise marks for method may be
lost.
*
Do all rough work in this book. Cross through any work that you do
not want to be marked.
*
The final answer to questions requiring the use of tables or
calculators should normally be given to three significant figures.
Information
*
The marks for questions are shown in brackets.
*
The maximum mark for this paper is 60.
*
Unit Statistics 1A has a written paper and coursework.
Advice
*
Unless stated otherwise, you may quote formulae, without proof,
from the booklet.
*
You do not necessarily need to use all the space provided.

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Answer all questions in the spaces provided.

The records at a passport office show that, on average, 15 per cent of photographs
that accompany applications for passport renewals are unusable.

Assume that exactly one photograph accompanies each application.

Determine the probability that in a random sample of 40 applications:

(a)
(i)

exactly 6 photographs are unusable;

(ii) at most 5 photographs are unusable;

(iii) more than 5 but fewer than 10 photographs are unusable.
(b)

(7 marks)

Calculate the mean and the standard deviation for the number of photographs that are
unusable in a random sample of 32 applications.
(3 marks)

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To supplement her pension, Cordelia bakes cakes which are then sold in Amirs
nearby shop.

The weight, X grams, of her square fruit cake may be modelled by a normal random
variable with a mean of 2200 and a standard deviation of 160 .

(a)

Determine:
(i)

PX < 2500 ;

(ii) PX > 2000 ;

(iii) P2000 < X < 2500 .
(b)

(7 marks)

The weight, Y grams, of Cordelias round fruit cake may be modelled by a normal
random variable with a mean of 1125 and a standard deviation of s.
If Amir requests that at most 10 per cent of these cakes should weigh less than
1000 grams, find the maximum value for s.
(4 marks)

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An experiment was undertaken to collect information on the burning of a specific

type of wood as a source of energy. At given fixed levels of the woods moisture
content, x per cent, its corresponding calorific value, y MWh=tonne, on burning was
determined. The results are shown in the table.

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

5.2

4.7

4.3

4.0

3.2

2.8

2.5

2.2

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.6

(a)

Calculate the equation of the least squares regression line of y on x, giving your
answer in the form y a bx .
(5 marks)

(b)

Interpret, in context, your values for a and b.

(c)

Use your equation to estimate the woods calorific value when it has a moisture
content of 27 per cent.
(2 marks)

(d)

Calculate the value of the residual for the point 35, 2.5.

(e)

Given that the values of the 13 residuals lie between 0.28 and 0.23 , comment on
(1 mark)
the likely accuracy of your estimate in part (c).

(3 marks)

(2 marks)

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Twins Alec and Eric are members of the same local cricket club and play for the
clubs under 18 team.

The probability that Alec is selected to play in any particular game is 0.85 .
The probability that Eric is selected to play in any particular game is 0.60 .
The probability that both Alec and Eric are selected to play in any particular game
is 0.55 .
By using a table, or otherwise:

(a)
(i)

show that the probability that neither twin is selected for a particular game is 0.10 ;

(ii) find the probability that at least one of the twins is selected for a particular game;
(iii) find the probability that exactly one of the twins is selected for a particular game.

(5 marks)
The probability that the twins younger brother, Cedric, is selected for a particular
game is:

(b)

0.30 given that both of the twins have been selected;

0.75 given that exactly one of the twins has been selected;
0.40 given that neither of the twins has been selected.
Calculate the probability that, for a particular game:
(i)

all three brothers are selected;

(ii) at least two of the three brothers are selected.

(6 marks)

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5

A sawmills machine cuts stakes for use in constructing agricultural fences. The
lengths of the cut stakes may be modelled approximately by a normal distribution.
The machine is set to cut stakes of length 1.5 m and is known to cut stakes to within
10 cm of any set length.
Elmer, the sawmills foreman, asked Ashley, a trainee office junior, to calculate the
mean and the standard deviation for the lengths of a random sample of 10 such
stakes selected from the machines output.
Ashley reported back to Elmer that the mean length of his 10 selected stakes was
151.5 cm and that the standard deviation of their lengths was 26.6 cm.
Advise Elmer on whether each of Ashleys values could be correct. Give numerical
support for your answers.
(4 marks)

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A random sample of 50 full-time university employees was selected as part of a

higher education salary survey.

The annual salary in thousands of pounds, x, of each employee was recorded, with
the following summarised results.
x 45:8 and

s 24:0

Also recorded was the fact that 6 of the 50 salaries exceeded 60 000 .
(a)

Show why the annual salary, X , of a full-time university employee is unlikely to be

normally distributed. Give numerical support for your answer.
(2 marks)

(b) (i)

Indicate why the mean annual salary, X , of a random sample of 50 full-time

university employees may be assumed to be normally distributed.
(2 marks)

(ii) Hence construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean annual salary of full-time

university employees.
(c)

(4 marks)

It is claimed that the annual salaries of full-time university employees have an

average which exceeds 55 000 and that more than 25% of such salaries exceed
60 000 .
Comment on each of these two claims.

(3 marks)

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