10/26/2016

FutureDefenseVisions

Review:MarginofVictoryFiveBattlesthatChangedtheFaceofModernWar
http://phibetaiota.net/2016/10/reviewmarginofvictoryfivebattlesthatchangedthefaceofmodernwar/

ColDrDougMacgregor
SpeakingTruthtoPowerSenatorMcCainAgrees,theFlagOfficersDoNot
5Stars
MarginofVictoryisahugelyimportantbookthatshouldberequiredreadinginallofthewar
colleges,aswellasallnationalsecurityprogramsinpoliticalscienceandinternationalrelations
coursesacrossthecountry.
Insailboatracingtheraceisoftenwonorlostbeforetheboateverhitsthewater.Ifthehullisnot
perfectlyformedperfectlypaintedandperfectlycleanbeforeitgearsup,thentheboatstartswithan
automaticembeddedpenaltyfactoritgoesslower.Whattheauthorhasdonewiththisbookisdemonstratethatwarsare
wonorlost1020yearsbeforetheyarefought,basedonwhetherthenationstatedevisesaneffectivegrandstrategyand
properlydevelopsabalancedapproachtoorganization,technologyandhumancapital,withhumancapitalbeingmost
important.
Thisbookisanhistoricallybasedindictmentofthepoliticalandeconomicmismanagementofnationalsecurity,anditis
particularlybrutalonthefactthatwedonothaveaDepartmentofDefensewithanationaldefensestaffthatisabletoachieve
unityofcommandinrelationtostrategy,operations,tactics,andtechnologyinsteadwehavefourseparateservicesvery
selfishserviceswhoworkwithmilitaryindustrialpoliticalpartnerstolootthepublictreasurytotheirownends,producinga
militarywithtoomanyflagofficers,outdatedordysfunctionalequipment(theF35andtheUSSGeraldFordcometomind,
andimpoverishedneglectedandoftenabusedenlistedpersonnelandcompanygradeofficers.
Acrossfiveworldchangingbattles,apartfromthedocumentationofhowthebattlesweredecideddecadesinadvance,the
authorhasdonesuperbresearchintothemindsofthecommandersonbothsidesofeachofthesefivebattles,andtheir
perceptionsofhigher,adjacent,andenemycommandersandunits.
Theauthoriscompellinginshowinghoweachoffivemajorbattleswerevirtuallyinevitableintheiroutcomebecauseof
positiveornegativedecisionsmadedecadesbeforebyspecificsetsofactorsintheUK(1914),Japan(1937),Germany(1944),
EgyptandIsrael(1973),andtheUS(1991.HeiscompellinginhiscriticismofthepresentUSobsessionwithspendingtrillions
ontechnologywhileneglectinghumancapitalandpersistingwithdysfunctionalcriminallycorruptorganization(my
adjectives,nothis).IwillthrowinhereGeneralBobScales,USA(Ret)documentedobservationthattheinfantry,4%ofthe
forcetaking80%ofthecasualties,gets1%ofthePentagonbudgetabudgetthatconsumes60%ofourFY2015disposable
income,16%ofourtotalincome,whilewespendmorethanthenexttenpeerandnonpeercompetitors(fromChinaand
RussiatoIranandTurkey)andcreateamilitarythatcannotwinwars.
Thisleadstotheothermajorstrategicpointsinthisbook.First,grandstrategyisaboutwagingpeaceandavoidingwar,butit
demandsamilitarythatcanmoveandwinthefirstfight.Second,theoccupationsandmilitaryinvestmentswehavebeen
makinghavedomesticopportunitycosts(imaginewhat5trillionwouldhaveboughtifinvestedinfreeeducation,
infrastructure,renewableenergy,andcommunitybuildingathome,insteadofinthemilitaryindustrialcomplexandthe
destructionofothercountries).
Ihaveanumberofmarginnotesjustafewareprovidedhere.
+Themilitarycannotreformitself.SenatorJohnMcCainreceivespraisefromtheauthorasdoeshisHousecounterpart,they
knowwearebroken,buttherearenotenoughpeopleliketheauthor(andIwouldadd,me)whoarebeingdrawnontocreatea
newNationalSecurityActthatgoesbeyondGoldwaterNicholstobreakthebacksoftheservicecrimefamiliesandcreatea
coherentwholewithinwhichtheservicesarecapabilitiesproviders,notmandarinswhowilllie,cheat,andstealtotheirown
ends.[SeetheArmymonograph,LyingtoOurselves:DishonestyintheArmyProfessionIwillsaythatinmyownexperience
IhavefoundtheNavyandtheAirForcetobevastlymoreunethicalthantheArmywitnesstheF35andtheUSSGerald
Ford.]
+Thefirstthingthatbreaksinwariscommunicationsalreadybrokengoingintowararetimidunimaginativeflagofficers.
Theauthoremphasizesoverandoveragainthatthecultureandeducationandinitiativeoftheenlistedpersonnelandcompany
gradeofficersaretherootofenablingvictory,ontopofpriororganizationandpriorintelligentinvestmentinbalanced
technologythatcanbereliedupontowork.
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10/26/2016

FutureDefenseVisions

+Airpowerisvastlyoverrated.A40dayaircampaignintheareawherethebattleof73Eastingtookplacekilled2tanksat
verygreatcostintimeandmunitionsinsharpcontrastandthesubtextofthisentirebook,ahandfulofUStankskilled
fifteenT72tanksinthreeminutesandinthecourseofafewhours,atotalofover70enemytanks,70armoredfighting
vehicles,44trucks,and32bunkers(allofwhichtheUSAirForcefailedtohit).
+NavalpowerisvastlyoverratedgiventheproliferationofaccessdenialtechnologiesandtheincompetenceoftheUSNavyin
mineclearance.Withpervasivesurveillanceandexistingtechnologies,theUSNavycanbesunkbymidlevelopponents,not
onlypeerchallengers.
+TheIsraelisandtheAmericansaremakingahugemistakeinoverinvestingintheAirForceandcyberoffensive
capabilities,whileneglectingeverythingelsebutparticularlyarmoredgroundforcesandhumancapabilitiesdevelopment.He
doescredittheIsraeliswithhavingavastlybetterculturethatfostersinitiativeacrossbothenlistedandofficerranks.
+Weshouldcloseallourbasesoverseasandteardownourprepositionedequipmentstocksonlandandsea,andinstead
focusonaverylargestandingArmyathomethatcantestneworganizationsandtechnologies,scalequickly,andbedelivered
quickly.Ihavetoagree,havingwrittenagrandstrategymonographfortheUSArmythatrecommendedpreciselythesame
approach.
+MostifnotallofourlessonslearnedfromAfghanistanandIraqarefraudulent.Theflagofficersandtheseniorexecutives
intheDepartmentofDefensedonotwanttoadmitthedepthandbreadthoftheirfailureandtheirinabilitytowinwarsagainst
peercompetitorsaswellasentrenchedindigenousrebels.
+TheUSdoesnotunderstandhistory,withreferencesmadetobothChinaandIran,eachofwhichisactuallyengagedina
defensivecampaign,notanoffensivecampaign.
+Wearenotreadytoassertourpowerinthefourglobalcommons(thehighseas,theatmosphere,Antarctica,andouter
space.
TheauthorconcludeswithafewsensibleprescriptionsthatmustbedemandedbythepublicandCongress,theywillneverbe
consideredbytheentrenchedservicemafias:
01Weneedagrandstrategythatrebalancestheinstrumentsofnationalpowerandforcesunityofcommandwithinthe
militaryitmustbecomplementedbyanationalmilitarystrategythatstopsallofourelectiveoccupationsandcampaignsthat
arecreatingterroristsanddisplacedpersons.[SeemyCounterPuncharticle,TheNationalMilitaryStrategy:Dishonest
Platitudes.]
02WemustreinventourentireC4ISRconstellationtoprotectagainstthecollapseofoursatelliteswhileprovidingthe
protectedandrobusttacticalandoperationalbandwidththatdoesnotexisttoday(towhichIwouldadd,anendtoourself
imposedemissionsquagmire).
03ThegroundforcemustbeairmobileasGeneralEricShinsekienvisioned,butitmustbebuiltaroundairtransportable
armorsurroundedbyeverythingelseinarmoredmobilityformincludingartillery,engineers,infantry,andablewithaproper
AirForceandNavytoenteranytargetareafromallsides,notsimplythroughoneobviousandeasilycloseddownportand
airfield.ItotallyagreewiththeauthorontheurgencyofredirectingtheAirForcetowardproperattentiontostrategiclift.
04Weneedanationaldefensestaffofpurpleprofessionalswhowillnotlie,cheat,andstealfortheirservicesbutwillinstead
seeandnurturethewhole.Weneedjointforcecommandersthatownallserviceelementsassignedtothemanddonothaveto
negotiatewitheachindividualservicecommanderwhentheywantsomethingspecific.
Thereismuchmoreinthisbook,theabovesummarynotesarehowIwillrememberthisbookintothefuture.Thereisno
questioninmyownmindbutthattheUSmilitaryiscommittingmoralandintellectualsuicidebyfailingtoembracetheideas
ofthisauthorandotherslikehim,wefew,wehappyfewwhoreallydobelievethatthetruthatanycostwinswarsandwage
peace.Theultimatewarrioristheonewhostopswarsfromstartinginthefirstplacethatisnotwhatthemilitaryindustrial
complex,itsbankers,anditscorruptpoliticalservantswant.Tohisenormouscredit,SenatorJohnMcCainseemstobe
focusedonhearingsandlegislationthatmightbecomehisgreatestlegacyafunctionalintegratedcosteffectivemilitarythat
isnotfritteredawayoccupyingcountriestostealtheirresourceswhiledisplacingmillionsofrefugeesthatinevitablymigrate
towardtheWest.
Bestwishestoall,
RobertDavidSteele

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