Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
June 2016
Resilience through reforms
Ndiam Diop
Lead Economist, Indonesia
Introduction
Global economy: weaker than expected
The world recovery is yet to be realized;
Hence, external conditions remain
unsupportive.
2015e
4.0
2016f
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Advanced
45
8
7
40
35
4
30
3
2
25
1
20
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
0
Mar-16
4
Commodity-exporting
developing countries
3
2
1
0
2013
2014
2015e
2016f
2017f
2018f
130
5.5
125
5.0
120
4.5
115
4.0
110
3.5
105
3.0
Mar-14
100
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-15
Mar-16
Price received by
paddy farmers
Mar-16
60
50
PMI Manufacturing
40
30
Business activity:
expectation
20
10
Business activity:
0
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Baseline outlook
2015
2016f
2017f
4.8
5.1
5.3
6.4
3.9
4.4
-2.1
-2.3
-2.5
-2.6
-2.8
n.a.
10
UK
referendum
on EU
membership
External
uncertainty
Global
growth and
trade
China
rebalancing
and
deleveraging
11
Domestic risks
Limited fiscal
space
Weak credit
growth
Domestic
Risks
Tax amnesty
SOE capital
injections
12
13
Thats counting
without headwinds
and reform impact
lags!
BI rate
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
High inflation;
Thailand
Philippines
Malaysia
Indonesia
Lending
rate
Deposit
rate
5yr gov.
bond yield
Inflation
0
10
20
200
180
215
160
183
140
120
100
WB
forecast
135
80
60
40
20
0
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
-18
-20
90
70
50
30
10
-10
-30
Restricting
40
37
35
30
Liberalizing
28
25
21
19
20
18
16
15
10
10
5
12
6
4
1
0
Mar-14
11
9
5
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Indonesia
Vietnam
Malaysia
China (RHS)
20
16
12
2
8
1
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015