tahun

sales
3/1/1994
72962
6/1/1994
81921
9/1/1994
97729
12/1/1994
142161
3/1/1995
145592
6/1/1995
117129
9/1/1995
114159
12/1/1995
151402
3/1/1996
153907
6/1/1996
100144
9/1/1996
123242
12/1/1996
128497
3/1/1997
176076
6/1/1997
180440
9/1/1997
162665
12/1/1997
220818
3/1/1998
202415
6/1/1998
211780
9/1/1998
163710
12/1/1998
200135
3/1/1999
174200
6/1/1999
182556
9/1/1999
198990
12/1/1999
243700
3/1/2000
253142
6/1/2000
218755
9/1/2000
225422
12/1/2000
253659
3/1/2001
257156
6/1/2001
202568
9/1/2001
224482
12/1/2001
229879
3/1/2002
289321
6/1/2002
266095
9/1/2002
262938
12/1/2002
322052
3/1/2003
313769
6/1/2003
315011
9/1/2003
264939
12/1/2003
301479

Tracking
Report
Dates
Mar-1994
Jun-1994
Sep-1994
Dec-1994
Mar-1995
Jun-1995
Sep-1995
Dec-1995
Mar-1996
Jun-1996
Sep-1996
Dec-1996
Mar-1997
Jun-1997
Sep-1997
Dec-1997
Mar-1998
Jun-1998
Sep-1998
Dec-1998
Mar-1999
Jun-1999
Sep-1999
Dec-1999
Mar-2000
Jun-2000
Sep-2000
Dec-2000
Mar-2001
Jun-2001
Sep-2001
Dec-2001
Mar-2002
Jun-2002
Sep-2002
Dec-2002
Mar-2003
Jun-2003
Sep-2003
Dec-2003
Mar-2004
Jun-2004
Sep-2004
Dec-2004
Mar-2005
Jun-2005
Sep-2005
Dec-2005
Mar-2006
Jun-2006
Sep-2006
Dec-2006
400,000.00

Actual

72,962.00 Forecast
81,921.00
97,729.00
142,161.00
145,592.00
117,129.00
114,159.00
151,402.00
153,907.00
100,144.00
123,242.00
128,497.00
176,076.00
180,440.00
162,665.00
220,818.00
202,415.00
211,780.00
163,710.00
200,135.00
174,200.00
182,556.00
198,990.00
243,700.00
253,142.00
218,755.00
225,422.00
253,659.00
257,156.00
202,568.00
224,482.00
229,879.00
289,321.00
266,095.00
262,938.00
322,052.00
313,769.00
315,011.00
264,939.00
301,479.00

Fitted Values104,828.88
94,103.62
99,466.25
110,191.51
115,554.14
120,916.77
126,279.41
131,642.04
137,004.67
142,367.30
147,729.93
153,092.56
158,455.19
163,817.82
169,180.45
174,543.09
179,905.72
185,268.35
190,630.98
195,993.61
201,356.24
206,718.87
212,081.50
217,444.13
222,806.76
228,169.40
233,532.03
238,894.66
244,257.29
249,619.92
254,982.55
260,345.18
265,707.81
271,070.44
276,433.08
281,795.71
287,158.34
292,520.97
297,883.60
303,246.23
303,246.23
308,608.86
313,971.49
319,334.12
324,696.75
330,059.39
335,422.02
340,784.65
346,147.28
351,509.91
356,872.54
362,235.17
367,597.80

sales

350,000.00
300,000.00
250,000.00
200,000.00
150,000.00
100,000.00
50,000.00
0.00
Mar-1994 Feb-1995 Jan-1996 Dec-1996 Nov-1997 Oct-1998 Sep-1999 Aug-2000

Actual

Forecast -- Trend (Linear) Regression Selected

Date
Mar-2004
Jun-2004
Sep-2004
Dec-2004
Mar-2005
Jun-2005
Sep-2005
Dec-2005
Mar-2006
Jun-2006
Sep-2006
Dec-2006
Total
Avg
Max
Min

Quarterly
308,608.86
313,971.49
319,334.12
324,696.75
330,059.39
335,422.02
340,784.65
346,147.28
351,509.91
356,872.54
362,235.17
367,597.80
4,057,239.99
338,103.33
367,597.80
308,608.86

Forecast
Annual

1,266,611.23

1,352,413.33

1,438,215.43
1,352,413.33
1,438,215.43
1,266,611.23

Forecast

Jul-2001

Jun-2002 May-2003 Apr-2004 Mar-2005 Feb-2006

Fitted Values

Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of
The data has a standard deviation of
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by

12.24%
67,359.80
86.62%

Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis
Series:sales
Dates
Mar-1994
Jun-1994
Sep-1994
Dec-1994
Mar-1995
Jun-1995
Sep-1995
Dec-1995
Mar-1996
Jun-1996
Sep-1996
Dec-1996
Mar-1997
Jun-1997
Sep-1997
Dec-1997
Mar-1998
Jun-1998
Sep-1998
Dec-1998
Mar-1999
Jun-1999
Sep-1999
Dec-1999
Mar-2000
Jun-2000
Sep-2000
Dec-2000
Mar-2001
Jun-2001
Sep-2001
Dec-2001

Original Data
72,962.00
81,921.00
97,729.00
142,161.00
145,592.00
117,129.00
114,159.00
151,402.00
153,907.00
100,144.00
123,242.00
128,497.00
176,076.00
180,440.00
162,665.00
220,818.00
202,415.00
211,780.00
163,710.00
200,135.00
174,200.00
182,556.00
198,990.00
243,700.00
253,142.00
218,755.00
225,422.00
253,659.00
257,156.00
202,568.00
224,482.00
229,879.00

Fitted Data
94,103.62
99,466.25
104,828.88
110,191.51
115,554.14
120,916.77
126,279.41
131,642.04
137,004.67
142,367.30
147,729.93
153,092.56
158,455.19
163,817.82
169,180.45
174,543.09
179,905.72
185,268.35
190,630.98
195,993.61
201,356.24
206,718.87
212,081.50
217,444.13
222,806.76
228,169.40
233,532.03
238,894.66
244,257.29
249,619.92
254,982.55
260,345.18

Error
-21,141.62
-17,545.25
-7,099.88
31,969.49
30,037.86
-3,787.77
-12,120.41
19,759.96
16,902.33
-42,223.30
-24,487.93
-24,595.56
17,620.81
16,622.18
-6,515.45
46,274.91
22,509.28
26,511.65
-26,920.98
4,141.39
-27,156.24
-24,162.87
-13,091.50
26,255.87
30,335.24
-9,414.40
-8,110.03
14,764.34
12,898.71
-47,051.92
-30,500.55
-30,466.18

Series % Change
12.28%
19.30%
45.46%
2.41%
-19.55%
-2.54%
32.62%
1.65%
-34.93%
23.06%
4.26%
37.03%
2.48%
-9.85%
35.75%
-8.33%
4.63%
-22.70%
22.25%
-12.96%
4.80%
9.00%
22.47%
3.87%
-13.58%
3.05%
12.53%
1.38%
-21.23%
10.82%
2.40%

Forecast % Change
5.70%
5.39%
5.12%
4.87%
4.64%
4.43%
4.25%
4.07%
3.91%
3.77%
3.63%
3.50%
3.38%
3.27%
3.17%
3.07%
2.98%
2.89%
2.81%
2.74%
2.66%
2.59%
2.53%
2.47%
2.41%
2.35%
2.30%
2.24%
2.20%
2.15%
2.10%

Cumulative Error
-21,141.62
-19,343.44
-15,262.25
-3,454.32
3,244.12
2,072.14
44.63
2,509.05
4,108.30
-524.86
-2,703.32
-4,527.67
-2,823.94
-1,434.94
-1,773.64
1,229.40
2,481.16
3,816.18
2,198.44
2,295.59
893.12
-245.79
-804.30
323.21
1,523.69
1,102.99
761.77
1,261.86
1,663.13
39.30
-945.86
-1,868.37

Mar-2002
Jun-2002
Sep-2002
Dec-2002
Mar-2003
Jun-2003
Sep-2003
Dec-2003
Avg
Max
Min
StDev
Var
Median

289,321.00
266,095.00
262,938.00
322,052.00
313,769.00
315,011.00
264,939.00
301,479.00
198,674.93
322,052.00
72,962.00
67,359.80
4,537,342,094.69
201,275.00

265,707.81
271,070.44
276,433.08
281,795.71
287,158.34
292,520.97
297,883.60
303,246.23
198,674.93
303,246.23
94,103.62
62,691.58
3,930,234,277.35
198,674.93

23,613.19
-4,975.44
-13,495.08
40,256.29
26,610.66
22,490.03
-32,944.60
-1,767.23
0.00
46,274.91
-47,051.92
24,639.56
607,107,817.34
-4,381.61

25.86%
-8.03%
-1.19%
22.48%
-2.57%
0.40%
-15.90%
13.79%
5.20%
45.46%
-34.93%
17.79%
3.17%
3.05%

2.06%
2.02%
1.98%
1.94%
1.90%
1.87%
1.83%
1.80%
3.05%
5.70%
1.80%
1.09%
0.01%
2.74%

-1,096.20
-1,210.30
-1,561.29
-399.69
330.32
913.47
45.31
0.00
-1,206.62
4,108.30
-21,141.62
5,406.65
29,231,816.57
41.96

Audit Trail -- ANOVA Table (Trend (Linear) Regression Selected)

Source of variation
Regression
Error
Total

SS
153,279,136,816.54
23,677,204,876.24
176,956,341,692.78

df
1
38
39

Audit Trail -- Coefficient Table (Trend (Linear) Regression Selected)

Name
Value
Standard Error
Intercept A
88,740.99
8,043.94
Slope (B)
5,362.63
341.91

MS
153,279,136,816.54
623,084,338.85

T-test

SEE
24,961.66

P-value
11.03
15.68

Elasticity
0.00
0.00

Overall F-test
246.00
0.55

Audit Trail -- Correlation Coefficient Table

Series
sales
sales
1.00
Audit Trail - Statistics
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
R-Square
Method Statistics
Method Selected

Value
12.24%
86.62%
Value
Trend (Linear) Regression

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item
Data range selected
Time scale for data
Periods to forecast

Value
[Book1]Sheet1!$B$16:$C$56
Quarterly
12.00

Forecast Statistics
Mean
Standard Deviation
Root Mean Square

Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeroes
Remove Trailing Zeroes
Use Holdback Evaluation
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected
Report Details
Run Date: 11/17/2016 2:50:08 PM
Author: HP
Note:

No

No

Yes
No
No
No

Trend (Linear) Regression

004 Mar-2005 Feb-2006

Cumulative MAPE
28.98%
19.84%
14.04%
11.93%
10.37%
8.73%
7.70%
6.94%
6.31%
6.10%
5.71%
5.36%
5.01%
4.70%
4.40%
4.21%
4.00%
3.82%
3.66%
3.49%
3.35%
3.23%
3.10%
2.99%
2.89%
2.79%
2.69%
2.60%
2.52%
2.46%
2.39%
2.33%

2.27%
2.20%
2.14%
2.09%
2.04%
1.99%
1.95%
1.90%
5.38%
28.98%
1.90%
5.34%
0.29%
3.42%

Value
198,674.93
67,359.80
66,512.47