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Executive summary
1 Indian mobile market overview
1.1 Second largest mobile market in Asia, but a long way from saturation
1.2 The rise of new ecosystem players is redefining the mobile industry in India
1.3 Market dynamics: a highly competitive market
Executive Summary
Mobile growth is increasingly focused on the developing world: more than 90% of the incremental 1
billion new mobile subscribers forecast by 2020 will come from developing markets. The number of
smartphone connections globally will increase by 2.6 billion by 2020, and again around 90% of that
growth will come from developing regions. China is already the largest smartphone market, but India
will be the real growth driver; it is set to add almost half a billion new connections over the next five
years. Total mobile revenues reached more than $1 trillion in 2015. However, slowing subscriber
growth, coupled with an increase in competition and a challenging macro-economic climate in many
developing markets, means growth over the next five years will be modest. The annual average
growth rate of just under 2% forecast for the period between 2015 and 2020 is less than half the rate
of the previous five years, with converging growth rates between developed and developing regions a
particular feature.
Subscriber base set to reach almost three-quarters of worlds population 2015 has been a year of
continued growth in the mobile industry, with more than 7.6 billion mobile connections1 (representing
4.7 billion unique subscribers) and operator revenues of more than $1 trillion. The acceleration of 4G
has been a major highlight; the global 4G connection base passed the 1 billion mark in late 2015. 4G
networks are now available in 151 countries across the world. The global subscriber penetration rate
now stands at 63%, with regional penetration rates ranging from 43% in Sub-Saharan Africa to 85%
in Europe. However, overall subscriber growth rates continue to slow, due to saturation in developed
markets and the difficulties of connecting low-income populations in developing markets. The global
subscriber base will reach 5.6 billion by the end of the decade, by which point over 70% of the
worlds population will have a mobile subscription.
India's telecommunication network is the second largest in the world based on the total number of
telephone users (both fixed and mobile phone).It has one of the lowest call tariffs in the world enabled
by the mega telephone networks and hyper-competition among them. It has the world's third-largest
Internet user-base. According to the Department of Telecommunication of India (DoT), as on March
2015, India has 302.35 million internet connections.
Telecommunication has supported the socioeconomic development of India and has played a
significant role to narrow down the rural-urban digital divide to some extent. It also has helped to
increase the transparency of governance with the introduction of e-governance in India. The
government has pragmatically used modern telecommunication facilities to deliver mass education
programmes for the rural folk of India.
INTRODUCTION
India is currently the worlds second-largest telecommunications market and has registered strong
growth in the past decade and half. The Indian mobile economy is growing rapidly and will contribute
substantially to Indias Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to report prepared by GSM
Association (GSMA) in collaboration with the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
The liberal and reformist policies of the Government of India have been instrumental along with
strong consumer demand in the rapid growth in the Indian telecom sector. The government has
enabled easy market access to telecom equipment and a fair and proactive regulatory framework that
has ensured availability of telecom services to consumer at affordable prices. The deregulation of
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) norms has made the sector one of the fastest growing and a top five
employment opportunity generator in the country.
The Indian telecom sector is expected to generate four million direct and indirect jobs over the next
five years according to estimates by Randstad India. The employment opportunities are expected to be
created due to combination of governments efforts to increase penetration in rural areas and the rapid
increase in smartphone sales and rising internet usage.
International Data Corporation (IDC) predicts India to overtake US as the second-largest smartphone
market globally by 2017 and to maintain high growth rate over the next few years as people switch to
smartphones and gradually upgrade to 4G.
The digital transformation we are witnessing across most industry sectors and throughout the world
presents a clear opportunity for players from across the mobile ecosystem. The challenge is to seize
the opportunity and to respond through service innovation. Against the backdrop of a renewed and
flexible regulatory environment, consumers and society as a whole will reap the benefits of significant
technological and socio-economic development.
The history of Indian telecom can be started with the introduction of telegraph. The Indian postal and
telecom sectors are one of the worlds oldest. In 1850, the first experimental electric telegraph line was
started between Calcutta and Diamond Harbour. In 1851, it was opened for the use of the British East
India Company. The Posts and Telegraphs department occupied a small corner of the Public Works
Department,at that time.The construction of 4,000 miles (6,400 km) of telegraph lines was started in
November 1853. These connected Kolkata (then Calcutta) and Peshawar in the north; Agra, Mumbai
(then Bombay) through Sindwa Ghats, and Chennai (then Madras) in the south; Ootacamund and
Bangalore. William O'Shaughnessy, who pioneered the telegraph and telephone in India, belonged to
the Public Works Department, and worked towards the development of telecom throughout this
period. A separate department was opened in 1854 when telegraph facilities were opened to the
public.
Indian telecom industry underwent a high pace of market liberalisation and growth since the 1990s
and now has become the world's most competitive and one of the fastest growing telecom
markets. The Industry has grown over twenty times in just ten years, from under 37 million
subscribers in the year 2001 to over 846 million subscribers in the year 2011.
India has the world's second-largest mobile phone user base with over 929.37 million users as of May
2012. It has the world's second-largest Internet user-base with over 300 million as of June 2015.
In 1880, two telephone companies namely The Oriental Telephone Company Ltd. and The AngloIndian Telephone Company Ltd. approached the Government of India to establish telephone exchange
in India. The permission was refused on the grounds that the establishment of telephones was a
Government monopoly and that the Government itself would undertake the work.
In 1881, the Government later reversed its earlier decision and a licence was granted to the Oriental
Telephone Company Limited of England for opening telephone exchanges at Calcutta,
Bombay,Madras and Ahmedabad and the first formal telephone service was established in the
country.] On 28 January 1882, Major E. Baring, Member of the Governor General of India's Council
declared open the Telephone Exchanges in Calcutta, Bombay and Madras. The exchange in Calcutta
named the "Central Exchange" had a total of 93 subscribers in its early stage. Later that year, Bombay
also witnessed the opening of a telephone exchange.
As a result, the Indian telecom market is one of the most liberalised market in the world with private
participation in almost all of its segments. The New Telecom Policy (NTP-99) provided the much
needed impetus to the growth of this industry and set the trend for liberalisation in the industry.
1.2 The rise of new ecosystem players is redefining the mobile industry in India
Local ecosystem players have emerged across different parts of the mobile value chain, notably
device manufacturing and content development, to compete with established global players operating
in the market. The main attraction for the products and services developed by these firms is their
tendency to address pertinent challenges faced by the local consumer, especially around content,
usability and cost.
Geographic focus of mobile ecosystem shifting towards the developing world North America remains
the epicentre of the technology industry and responsible for many of the innovations now taken for
granted. Despite a host of new emerging challengers, operating systems originating in North America
continue to dominate the global smartphone market, accounting for around 95% of global sales in
2014. New services originating in the region continue to scale rapidly, both domestically and
internationally, particularly those based on the new sharing economy, such as Uber and Lyft. Europe
has seen its once dominant position in areas such as handset manufacturing and equipment eroded
over recent years. There are though still a number of areas of particular success in Europe; for
example, four of the global top five mobile app-based gaming companies are European an area of
genuine market-leading expertise in the digital arena. Data from Vision Mobile indicates that in the
first quarter of 2015 there were more than 1.3 million app developers in the EU28, equivalent to
around 23% of the total global developer base However, the momentum of innovation is increasingly
swinging towards developing markets, which are set to see the vast majority of growth in terms of
new subscribers and smartphones over the next five years. Innovative mobile ecosystems are
developing in many countries. China, for example, is already home to almost 900 million mobile
internet users, with high levels of mobile app usage. The country has seen a number of innovations in
the app economy, with local developers helped by the relative absence of some of the more
established global internet players such as Google. Several players have listed on the public markets
and now have market capitalisations that are beginning to rival those of the more established internet
giants in the West. India is now among the top three markets globally for app downloads from the
Google Play Store, according to App Annie. The domestic Indian app economy is developing rapidly
with apps that address a variety of topics, from basic information and entertainment services to ecommerce and e-government applications, published by local developers and content providers.
Smartphones account for around 20% of total mobile connections in the Indian market, lower than the
regional average of 40%. However, in absolute terms, India is already the third-largest smartphone
market globally, with 185 million connections as of mid-2015. The main challenges faced by local
consumers looking to upgrade from feature phones to smartphones are the cost of devices and the
affordability of data services. The sheer size of the smartphone market has already attracted a range of
local and international manufacturers; several overseas manufacturers have announced plans to shift
production to the Indian market. The emergence of a local smartphone manufacturing ecosystem
focussed on producing low-cost smartphones will play a vital role in meeting the demand for higher
specification devices, a development that is in line with the governments Make in India drive to
encourage local manufacturing. This is already having a significant impact on the market: the average
selling price (ASP) of smartphones in India has almost halved since 2011, to less than INR15,000 in
2015. Despite the notable rise in smartphone adoption since the launch of 3G networks, feature
phones remain an essential part of the mobile landscape that will be vital to connecting the large rural
population.
Asian markets such as South Korea, Japan and China are driving the development of 5G mobile
technologies, in a similar way to how Europe pioneered 3G and North America led 4G. With high or
rapidly growing levels of 4G adoption, supportive governments and ambitious launch targets (linked
to flagship sporting events), operators in these countries are challenging North American counterparts
such as Verizon, which is initially focusing on 5G as a fixed-wireless solution. We expect to see some
kind of commercial 5G launch in all three countries by 2020, despite the fact that 5G standardisation
is not scheduled to be completed until then. Operators in South Korea have announced plans to launch
5G services in readiness for the 2018 Winter Olympics in the country, with nationwide deployments
by 2020. The countrys leading mobile operators plan to undertake a number of trials over the next
year, with for example NEC announcing the successful completion of a proof-of-concept trial with
KT Corporation for a 5G wireless backhaul solution that uses E-Band spectrum (70-80 GHz). SK
Telecom also completed the field trial of 2800 MHzbased 5G services along with Samsung and plans
to develop 5G pilot networks before the end of 2016. In Japan, Tokyo Tech, Sony, JRC and KDDI
Labs have jointly developed a wave-based, high-throughput wireless access network for large-scale
data content distribution in the 40 GHz and 60 GHz bands. Development of mmWave represents a
key technology for the heterogeneous networks that will be used for 5G. China is also committed to a
rapid move to 5G, with its Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) indicating that
5G will be commercially available in the country by 2020. Chinese operators have announced a
number of partnerships to work on 5G (including the recent announcement by China Unicom and
Ericsson). The EU has also signed an agreement to cooperate with China on the development of 5G,
including the jointfunding of research in a number of areas such as standardisation and spectrum use.
1.3.1 Competition and new messaging services continue to weigh on revenue growth
Revenue growth in Indias mobile market has moderated significantly over the last decade from more
than 30% in the mid-2000s to single digits in the last three years. In 2014, operators recorded total
revenue of $29.8 billion, a 6% increase on the previous year. Recurring revenue growth has seen the
biggest decline in recent years, driven by a combination of intense price competition and the
increasing cannibalisation of operators traditional services by online communications services.
Recurring revenue growth will pick up in 2017, partly due to forecast connections growth over the
next two years, but will trend downwards again in the latter part of this decade due to slowing
subscriber growth and the ongoing impact of competitive pressures.
Although the uptake of smartphones provides an opportunity for data revenue growth, mobile
operators in India have so far reported limited revenue contribution from data services. One challenge
for operators is the need to recover the high costs of spectrum; operators bid around $18 billion in the
latest round of spectrum auctions in March 2015. Competitive pressures and low income levels also
mitigate against the ability of operators to pass these costs onto consumers. As a proportion of
recurring revenues, average data service revenues are slightly below 15%, compared to more than
30% in advanced countries in the region. The challenge for operators is to continue to monetise the
growth in data traffic and the uptake of data-centric services by consumers. Over recent years,
operators have also made significant investments in building out mobile coverage and upgrading to
mobile broadband; capex over the last four years totalled in excess of $18 billion. Capex is likely to
increase going forward, as operators invest further in network coverage and increasingly in 4G
network deployments. Capex levels in India are also influenced by the absence of efficient spectrum
allocations, which makes it more capital intensive to add network capacity. Several operators
including Idea Cellular and Bharti Airtel have recently increased their guidance for capex levels for
the current financial year.
1.3.2 Margin erosion and spectrum costs are likely to stimulate market
Despite operators efforts to minimise capex and operating costs through network sharing and
managed services agreements, there is growing pressure on their operating margins due to sluggish
revenue growth and competitive challenges. EBITDA margins have also come under pressure from
the cost requirements of coverage expansion to underserved areas. Although there has been some
recovery in margins over recent years, they remain below the developing market average. The outlook
remains uncertain, with a new entrant launching and the possible introduction of MVNOs to further
increase competitive intensity. Competition has played an important role in making mobile services
affordable to end users over recent years. However, operators may need to move to more sustainable
business models through consolidation if they are to justify the high levels of investment required to
support mobile broadband network expansion. Unlike India, the majority of emerging markets have
only three or four mobile operators, as is also the case in Europe and the US. Although regulators and
policy-makers in many markets have been concerned about the impact of consolidation, research by
Frontier Economics for the GSMA has highlighted that the right market structures can incentivise
mobile broadband investments that deliver both lower unit prices and improved quality5 . The
research found that the main driver of lower prices in emerging markets over the last ten years has
been investment, rather than market competition. Ensuring that the industry structure supports
investment in mobile markets should be an important aim for policy-makers. The large number of
operators in India also limits the amount of spectrum available to each operator. The resulting
spectrum scarcity in a highly fragmented market leads to higher network deployment costs, as
operators need to build more cell sites to improve service quality. The market will only consolidate if
regulatory policies enable such an environment, particularly around issues such as spectrum transfer.
The warning signs regarding spectrum were present before WRC-15. The existing 700 MHz band is
key to bringing affordable 4G mobile broadband services to all parts of Asia Pacific from urban
centres to rural villages yet few governments in the region have licensed it. As a result of WRC-15,
many countries in the region are now at a disadvantage when it comes to supporting rapidly growing
mobile broadband uptake and usage as well as advanced 4G, and in future 5G, services. Governments
need to agree on a harmonised set of new bands for 5G use and work to identify them at the next
WRC in 2019. The Internet of Things (IoT) picture in Asia Pacific is more positive. Asia Pacific
dominates the global market for cellular M2M connections, with China the worlds largest cellular
M2M market, exceeding 100 million M2M connections at the end of 2015, representing almost a third
of the global base. This highlights Asia Pacifics strong position in the wider Internet of Things - the
coordination of multiple machines, devices and applications connected to the internet through
multiple networks, including machine to machine (M2M) and low-power, widearea (LPWA)
networks.
However, network coverage and digital literacy remain key barriers to further extending mobile
internet access, as many of Indias unconnected communities reside in rural or remote areas. The
report outlines a number of strategies that will help close this digital divide and support the costeffective deployment of mobile broadband across the country. These include an increase in the
availability of harmonised spectrum at a reasonable price, as well as a reduction in mobile-specific
taxation that will serve to make mobile broadband more affordable for consumers and maximise the
ability of mobile operators to invest in their networks. The report also highlights the need to adapt
regulatory frameworks to reflect the new market dynamics that have brought changes to traditional
mobile communication services.
The GSMA launched its Digital Inclusion programme in April 2014 to help expand mobile
connectivity and to increase mobile internet adoption by addressing the key barriers to mobile internet
access, both in India and across the world:
Network infrastructure and policy: increasing network coverage to currently unserved areas.
Affordability and taxation: the combination of low incomes, cost of devices, charging fees, and
data plan payments creates an affordability barrier to accessing the mobile internet. This issue is
compounded by government taxes and fees, such as airtime and handset taxes.
Digital literacy and local content: Illiteracy, digital illiteracy and lack of internet awareness are
challenges to mobile internet adoption. The availability of content that is both in the local language
and locally relevant can play a vital role in the adoption of the mobile internet.
4G connections to triple and initial 5G deployments to commercialise by 2020 The region is seeing an
accelerating technology migration to 4G, with the number of 4G connections increasing by 2.5 times
over the course of 2015 and now totalling in excess of 600 million. South Korea, Japan and China
have been the leaders in 4G adoption. South Korea has the highest adoption rate of any market
globally. A number of previously laggard markets in Asia Pacific are now migrating to 4G, including
the likes of Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines. This is being driven by a number of factors
including ongoing network investments by operators, falling device prices and growing consumer
appetite for higher speed mobile. For operators there is the benefit of an uplift in data consumption
from the move to 4G, as observed in markets across the world. The regions technology leaders
South Korea, Japan and China are now driving the development of 5G mobile technologies, in a
similar way to how Europe pioneered 3G and North America led 4G. With high or rapidly growing
levels of 4G adoption, supportive governments and ambitious launch
The digital divide in India is compounded by a lack of awareness about the benefits of the internet. A
recent report by GSMA Intelligence and the GSMA Digital Inclusion programme showed that many
non-users lack awareness of internet uses and available content. Consequently, they do not feel the
internet is relevant or useful to them, and associate the utility of the internet with just entertainment,
passing time and posturing.12 Creating awareness around the benefits of the internet and the
availability of useful services covering a wide range of subjects, such as agriculture, education and
healthcare, is crucial to bringing more people online. Operators are playing an active role in
addressing these challenges. For example, Uninor (now Telenor India) launched the Internet on
Wheels initiative to educate people about the benefits of the internet and increase adoption of mobile
internet in rural areas in India. A branded van will be travelling across rural areas of Uttar Pradesh,
Bihar & Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat to teach customers about the mobile
internet, how to access it on feature phones, how to navigate on a smartphone and how data packages
work. Telenor India has also opened more than 200 customer education hubs (Grahak Shiksha
Kendras) to train customers on mobile services. These centres will act as knowledge and awareness
centres where existing and potential customers can get information on Telenor Indias voice and
internet services. In these hubs, any query related to mobile phones can be resolved. Telenor India
developed an in-house curriculum to train the customer relationship executives, 50% of whom are
women, at the hubs. Telenor India plans to increase the number of hubs to 500 by the end of 2015.
Idea has been running various campaigns at a national level to educate people on the potential of the
mobile internet and to make it more relevant to individuals lives. This has been supplemented by
campaigns at a regional and local level, with the company providing mobile-based training on using
the internet.
In the southern state of Karnataka, Idea organised a programme called Idea Internet Santhe,
conducting events across 10 small towns and making available activated data-bundled SIM cards for
users. In another region the company launched Idea Buddy, a form of talent contest aimed at college
students to find the individuals with the highest levels of internet knowledge. A key element of the
programme was workshop sessions that explained the various aspects of the internet. The company
also targeted colleges that had a large population of students from lower income groups, as well as
female-only colleges, to address the lower uptake of mobile internet and data services in these groups.
The government in India is also playing an active role. The National Digital Literacy Mission aims to
provide ICT training to 1 million people initially one in every eligible household in selected
blocks in each state of the country. Around 90% of these will be entitled to government support for
training fees, with the rest supported by industry players and NGOs.
Mobile Connect India is a collaborative effort by the six leading operators in India (Bharti Airtel,
Aircel, Idea, Tata Teleservices, Telenor and Vodafone India). The operators account for around 85% of
the Indian market, with more than 800 million connections as of March 2016 (all of which are Mobile
Connect enabled). These operators are in the process of launching Mobile Connect across all of their
circles. Use cases are being developed by operators and service providers to address some of the
pertinent issues faced by the industry. These include helping banks complete two-factor authentication
(mandatory in India for transactions) without the need for complicated security questions or SMS;
helping customers to authenticate in-person without actually giving away personal data, including the
mobile number, for example with e-commerce home deliveries; and detecting advertising fraud.
Utilities: NextDrop
NextDrop provides water supply alerts to residents in the twin towns of Hubli-Dharwad in Bangalore,
using a simple Android app. With the supportof the Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board and
GSMA Mobile for Development Utilities funding, this system has been deployed across 40% of
Bangalore. NextDrop is already providing more than 75,000 people in Hubli-Dharwad with timely
and reliable information about their water supply.
Beyond mobile network operators, India has a solid and vibrant mobile ecosystem, with all the four
ecosystem industries considered in our analysis generating significant economic activity in 2014:
the fast-growing mobile content and apps servicessector generated nearly INR22,000 crore in 2014
the largely established and consolidated Indian mobile towers and infrastructure sector generated
just under INR30,000 crore
the renascent Indian handset manufacturing sector generated INR36,000 crore
the still largely informal mobile retail sector generated approximately INR37,000 crore in value
added.
As mobile operators and the ecosystem purchase inputs and services from their providers in the
supply chain, a multiplier effect on other Indian businesses is produced, generating sales and
economic value added in other sectors and industries. For example, distribution and transport
companies draw part of their revenues from supporting the operations of tower companies when
upgrading and expanding their mobile internet networks. The same effect can
be observed in many other sectors of the economy,including energy, retail and professional services
such as finance or insurance. We conservatively estimate that a value added of around INR50,000
crore (0.4% of GDP) was generated through these indirect impacts in
India in 2014. Finally, mobile technology has transformed the way economic activity is carried out in
many sectors of the economy, easing ways of doing business and allowing more efficient ways to
communicate and access information. The productivity impacts brought about by the widespread
adoption and use of mobile technology by individuals, businesses and governments generated
approximately INR4.7 lakh crore in 2014, an estimated 3.7% of Indias GDP. Overall, considering
direct, indirect and productivity impacts, in 2014 the mobile industry supported a total contribution of
INR7.7 lakh crore to the Indian economy in value added terms, equivalent to 6.1% of Indias total
GDP.
approximately 150,000 jobs. A large number of jobs in this sector are on a part-time or self-employed
basis. Indian mobile network operators also employ a significant amount of people, estimated at
67,000 in 2014. Handset manufacturers and the formal retail sector (large retailers, small chains and
increasingly also general retailers) generated slightly lower numbers of jobs (46,000 and 33,000 jobs
respectively), although the figures in both cases could increase in the next few years if emerging
trends continue. A number of mobile manufacturers have reported plans to open or strengthen their
presence in India, while the formal retail sector is also growing and expanding faster than
traditional retailing.
Further to the employment that is sustained within the ecosystem, additional jobs were also indirectly
supported in other industries, as the ecosystem generated demand and jobs in other sectors that
benefit from the activity of the mobile industry, in particular in the direct supply chain. We estimate
that in 2014 around 1.9 million jobs were indirectly supported in this way, bringing the total impact
(both direct and indirect) of the mobile industry to around 4 million jobs in 2014..
auctions in 2014.
In 2014 mobile operators and the ecosystem provided direct employment to 6.5 million people across
the region. The largest employment contribution came from the content, applications and services
sector, with approximately 2.4 million jobs, although a high proportion of jobs in this sector are parttime or on a self-employed basis. Further to the employment that is sustained within the ecosystem,
additional jobs were also indirectly supported in other industries, as the economic activity in the
ecosystem generated demand and jobs in other sectors that benefit from the activity of the mobile
industry, in particular in the direct supply chain. We estimate that in 2014 over 6 million jobs were
indirectly supported in this way, bringing the total impact of the mobile industry to around 12.5
million jobs in 2014.
The mobile ecosystem also makes a very significant contribution to the funding of public sector
activity in the region through general taxation. For most countries this includes value added tax,
corporation tax, and income tax and social security from mobile ecosystem employees. The sector
made a total contribution to the global public finances of governments across the region of over
US$130 billion in 2014.
In value added terms, a total economic value of INR14 lakh crore will be generated by 2020 in the
form of salaries, profits and tax payments, almost double the figure for 2014. This increased
contribution reflects the fact that the mobile ecosystem will experience faster growth than the rest of
the economy. As a result, the total contribution of mobile technology as a percentage of GDP is
forecast to increase from 6.1% in 2014 to 8.2% in 2020. There could be upside to these forecasts if
both the government and regulators adopt some of the enablers outlined in this report, and if the key
ambitions of the Digital India programme are realised. Most of this growth will be driven by the boost
to business productivity and economic output resulting from previously unconnected citizens
becoming first time internet users, with virtually all of this additional connectivity provided through
mobile networks. Internet connectivity is directly linked to greater productivity and economic growth,
and the large increase in the number of internet users will be the key driver of the transformation in
the productivity of the Indian economy over this period. There may be upside to these forecasts if a
more supportive regulatory environment is put in place and this helps realise the governments Digital
India initiative.
In the period to 2020 the economic contribution from the mobile ecosystem and enabled by the use of
mobile services will continue to grow. A total economic value of over US$1.8 trillion will have been
generated by the mobile industry in 2020 in the form of salaries, profits and tax payments, up from a
figure of US$1.1 trillion in 2014. The value added generated by mobile technologies in the region will
experience faster growth than the rest of the economy, despite relatively high levels of overall
economic growth. The total contribution of mobile technology as a proportion of GDP will also
increase going forward. This growth will be driven by both demand and supply side effects. On the
demand side, mobile technologies will connect previously unconnected populations to the internet and
enable a more efficient use of resources in those economies. Supply-side effects will also make a
significant contribution, as the number of subscribers grows and new value added services are brought
to market, generating revenue and value added growth in the ecosystem.
As a percentage of GDP, the contribution of the mobile industry will also increase, from 4.7% in 2014
to 5.9% in 2020. This strong growth is higher than the growth we expect to see globally, which puts
Asia Pacific among the regions in the world where the impacts from mobile technologies will be most
transformative from a socioeconomic perspective during this period. Growth in the period to 2020 is
expected to be particularly strong in those countries with lower income levels such as Bangladesh,
and those with relatively low levels of mobile internet penetration such as Myanmar. There is less
growth potential through productivity improvements where market penetration is already high, such
as Japan, Australia and South Korea, which are also amongst the countries with highest income per
capita in the region. There is some potential upside to these projections in these more developed
markets if the adoption of new services and the roll-out of LTE networks further enhances efficiencies
and enables lower costs for businesses during this period.
The total number of jobs both directly and indirectly generated by the ecosystem will also grow
significantly in the period to 2020. The number of jobs directly and indirectly generated by the
industry in Asia Pacific will increase to nearly 8 million and 7 million respectively by 2020. At the
same time, the public funding contribution of the mobile ecosystem (excluding spectrum and other
regulatory fees) will reach over $150 billion by 2020 in real terms if tax rates remain at current levels,
up from $130 billion in 2014.
Indias policy-makers and mobile operators share a common agenda. The governments Digital India
programme, which is aiming to transform the country into a digitally empowered society and
knowledge economy, is closely aligned with the goals of the countrys mobile industry. Creating a
Digital India depends on giving both entrepreneurs and employees high-quality connectivity. Indias
mobile operators are striving to extend broadband to many more people and communities. Faced with
challenging economic and terrain, mobile operators need a regulatory environment that attracts
investors and encourages innovation.
There are a number of key steps that policy-makers can take to create a forward-looking, flexible and
fair regulatory and licensing framework:
Make sufficient internationally harmonised spectrum available on reasonable terms.
Remove barriers to network infrastructure deployments.
Adjust taxes and licence fees to increase the affordability of mobile broadband services and the
ability of operators to invest in their networks.
Level the playing field between Internet players and telecoms operators.
subscriber than most other countries, either developed or developing, to mobile services. With a
modest ,allocation of spectrum split between 12 licensees, it is difficult for individual mobile
operators to meet peak demand for traffic on their networks.
A telecom company that wishes to offer services in any of the 22 telecom circles in India must
purchase a Unified Access Services (UAS) license to operate that circle. Licences are awarded by
auctions. The UAS, introduced in November 2003, is valid for a period of 20 years, which can be
extended by an additional 10 years once per licence per circle ]Initially, a mobile network operator
that was awarded a licence to operate in any of the 22 telecom circles in India was allocated
frequencies in that circle for a fixed time period. After the expiry of the licence, the company would
have to bid to renew the licence. A new telecom policy announced by the government in 2011,
delinked spectrum from licences. As a result, when an operator renews its licence it must also pay
separately for spectrum.
The first telecom spectrum auction in India was held in 1994. Auctions were held again in 1997,
2000, and 2001. Spectrum in the 900MHz band was auctioned in all these years except 2001, while
1800 MHz band spectrum was auctioned for the first time in 2001.Following the 2001 auction, the
government abandoned the practice of auctions in favour of an administrative allocation model. Under
this model, the government would select companies that it deemed were best equipped to develop
India's telecom infrastructure. The final allocation of 900 MHz took place in 2004, through the new
model. This policy resulted in spectrum being allocated at far lower prices than had been done
through auctions. For example, Reliance had paid 12.25 crore and 58.49 crore in 1995 for 4.4MHz
spectrum in West Bengal and Orissa respectively. In 2004, Airtel was allocated the same amount of
spectrum in the same circles for 1 crore and 4.4 crore respectively.
India, fast increasing use of mobile broadband, applications, content and services means mobile
operators are going to need to be able to employ significantly more spectrum than they do today. If
sufficient spectrum is not available, mobile networks will become increasingly congested, frustrating
consumers and curbing companies productivity.
globally for mobile services. Although the government is set to provide additional spectrum before the
end of the current financial year, more spectrum will be needed in the near future. The amount of
spectrum required in each national market varies depending on levels of data demand and
national priorities, but the GSMAs research suggests that, on average, a total of 16001800 MHz
should be identified for mobile services. Given the density of major cities in India, and its technologysavvy population, the GSMA believes the spectrum available for mobile services in India needs to be
at the high end of this range. Unlicensed spectrum is not an adequate substitute, as it creates an
uneven playing field and can quickly become congested, leading to interference between services.
By 2020 more than half a billion mobile connections in India will be running on mobile broadband
networks.Achieving this figure, and ensuring further growth in future, will depend on mobile
operators gaining access to additional spectrum, especially in the 2100 MHz band. The government
needs to take urgent steps to migrate current users, mainly defence, from the 2100 MHz band to make
the remaining spectrum available for mobile communications in line with the internationally
harmonised band plan. It is encouraging that the government has indicated its intention to make more
spectrum in this band available. India also needs to harmonise the 1800 MHz band, which is highly
fragmented.
The next step is to prepare a clear roadmap for the release of the 700 MHz band for mobile services,
which is already being deployed in some countries. This low-frequency spectrum, structured in line
with the Asia-Pacific Telecommunity (APT) band plan, can enable cost-effective coverage of large
geographic areas, so will play an important role in extending mobile broadband coverage. Contrary to
most markets, in India this band is not occupied by broadcasting and can therefore be made available
for mobile usage. This is an advantage that India should capitalise on to ensure the full frequency (2 x
45 MHz) is licensed to expand mobile coverage across the country. To increase digital inclusion,
Indias policy-makers should also consider offering subsidies, such as a reduction in licensee fees, to
operators that achieve a specific coverage threshold. A key constraint for operators is that reserve
prices in India have historically been set on the high side. As a general rule, new spectrum needs to be
licensed via a well-designed auction process with a reasonable reserve price. It is particularly
important to make available sufficient spectrum so that the auction realises a true market price, rather
than an excessive price driven by scarcity. The more mobile operators pay to license spectrum, the
less money they have available to build out networks. As the digital economy becomes increasingly
important to Indias future prosperity, the government needs to prioritise the rollout of broadband
over plugging short-term gaps in the fiscal deficit.
Looking further out, India will also need to make more internationally harmonised
spectrum available to fulfil its Digital India ambitions. Given the time it can take for
spectrum to be allocated, cleared and then licensed,, the World Radiocommunication
Conference 2015 (WRC-15) plays a critical role in determining whether mobile broadband
services can continue to drive socioeconomic growth over the next decade. As a major
player on the global stage, India will be an influential voice at WRC-15, which is charged
with identifying additional spectrum for mobile broadband by 2020 and
beyond.
The GSMA is proposing that WRC-15 identify four frequency ranges to mobile broadband:
Sub-700 MHz UHF (470694 MHz): In countries with a large geographic area
such as India, the
spectrum below 700 MHz will be important for providing extensive and affordable mobile
broadband coverage in rural areas beyond 2020. This band is already allocated to mobile
services in Asia-Pacific. Licensing these bands for mobile services, thereby preventing
interference and wastingvaluable frequencies, is the most efficient way to harness this
valuable spectrum for the greater good.
L-band (13501400 MHz and 14271518 MHz): This band is capable of delivering
additional capacity and coverage over relatively large areas, including inside buildings. It
is the most supported band across all continents, with some European countries already
auctioning part of the band in 2015. This band has the potentially to be harmonised
globally, generating major economies of scale for the mobile industry and its customers.
2.72.9 GHz: This band, which is underutilised, particularly in South Asia, would
provide important
extra mobile capacity, and its proximity to 2.6 GHz will facilitate the fast deployment of
extra capacity to the existing cell sites.
C-band (3.43.8 GHz and 3.84.2 GHz): The size of this band offers a unique
opportunity to identify
a significant portion to deliver very fast mobile broadband services in Indias dense urban
areas.A WRC-15 decision to allocate these bands for mobile services is essential for
subsequent international harmonization that will lower the cost of equipment,enable
roaming and reduce international interference. At the same time, national
administrations will have the flexibility to release the amount they choose to meet
national demand when necessary. As the mobile ecosystem needs time to develop
appropriate devices and network equipment, it is important for the government to
publish a spectrum roadmap that provides clarity for the industry and investors. Indias
device manufacturing industry will also benefit from a clear spectrum roadmap,
bolstering the governments Make in India initiative and strengthening the countrys
manufacturing base.
enforced throughout the country, for the deployment of base stations and fibre.The first key step is to
introduce explicit and consistent planning approval processes for mobile base stations across India,
thereby ensuring networks can be deployed without lengthy delays. The government should consider
introducing mechanisms to reduce bureaucratic inefficiencies, including one-stop shopapprovals,
fixed decision periods and simplified procedures for co-locations and modifications to existing sites.
The costs of obtaining approval certificates from municipalities have reportedly increased by 500% in
recent years and this should be reviewed.
India is now taking much-needed steps to simplify its rights-of-way policies to enable faster
deployment of the cables required to connect base stations to the telecoms network and ultimately the
Internet. Again,the procedures and charges for rights of way, which can be very expensive and timeconsuming, need to be streamlined and standardised across India. The government also needs to do
more to ensure telecoms networks have access to a reliable power supply, particularly in rural areas, at
preferential rates that reflect the fundamental role of connectivity in Indias economy and telecoms
infrastructure sector status. The Department of Telecommunications guidelines for state governments
on the installation of masts stress that electricity should be provided as a priority, but in reality this
often does not happen. The decision of the Kerala State to allow mobile network infrastructure to be
established on government land and buildings demonstrates how state governments can reduce the
barriers to network deployment
4.3
Ensuring a level playing field
Indias licensing and regulatory framework was designed at a time when the Internet was just
emerging, there were no smartphones and hardly any of the new online communication service
platforms. This framework needs to be adapted for a Digital Age in which many industries and sectors
are now overlapping and converging. To provide clarity for consumers and enable fair competition,
governments around the world need to pursue regulatory neutrality, whereby the same services are
governed by the same rules. India needs to modernise its regulatory framework to treat equivalent
services in the same way, providing the same level of protection for consumers and not
disadvantaging a particular type of provider.
4.3.1
The impact of online communications services
Indias licensing and regulatory framework was designed at a time when the Internet was just
emerging, there were no smartphones and hardly any of the new online communication service
platforms. This framework needs to be adapted for a Digital Age in which many industries and sectors
are now overlapping and converging. To provide clarity for consumers and enable fair competition,
governments around the world need to pursue regulatory neutrality, whereby the same services are
governed by the same rules. India needs to modernise its regulatory framework to treat equivalent
services in the same way, providing the same level of protection for consumers and not
disadvantaging a particular type of provider. The widespread deployment of mobile broadband
networks is enabling online communications services to provide voice calls, messaging, content and
otherservices in competition with mobile operators. Several of these services have become major
players in the Indian market, and have begun to erode the voice and messaging revenues that mobile
operators rely on to support and facilitate the rollout and expansion of broadband services. For
example, India has nearly 100 million WhatsApp users, more than a tenth of the global user base. In
the absence of a fair regulatory and commercial solution, particularly for online communications
services, Indias telecoms networks will not attract sufficient investment and this could delay realising
the vision of the Digital India programme. Competition from online communications services has led
to a significant decline in revenue for telecoms operators. The operators are, at the same time,
investing heavily in networks and the acquisition of spectrum, while paying licence fees and spectrum
usage charges, to meet the escalating demand for connectivity. Online communication services are not
subject to the same level of costs of doing business. There is also a significant imbalance in the
regulatory requirements that apply to telecoms operators and new online communications services.
These include record keeping and interconnection, adherence to quality of service, security
safeguards, connectivity to emergency services, transparency, lawful interception, privacy and
other requirements. These regulatory obligations apply to telecoms operators, but not to the new
entrants providing similar services. In light of these major disparities, India needs to modernise its
regulatory framework so that no single entity or type of entity is at a disadvantage. A single,
consistently applied framework covering all competitors, regardless of the technology they use
or the type of provider, should govern Indias digital service providers.
Conclusion
In summary, governments have a major role to play in the development of a digital society, both in
terms of creating a supportive environment for innovation and investment, and by harnessing digital
channels to provide effective and efficient public services.