What Happens When a Dictator Dies?

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What Happens When a Dictator Dies?

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A new study nds that the natural death of a dictator does not usually lead to a change
in a countys governmental system. In other words, remaining leaders are unlikely to
put a democratic system into place.
Researchers at Michigan State University and the National Intelligence Council carried
out the study, titled When Dictators Die. e magazine Journal of Democracy
published it.
e study found that in most cases, system changes are more probable if a dictator is
ousted.
e researchers examined almost 80 cases of dictators who died in oce between 1946
and 2012. ey note that 11 of the 55 dictators now in oce are at least 70 years old.
Some are not in good health.
Erica Frantz is an associate professor at Michigan State. She was one of the
researchers.
It started about the time of Kim Jong-ils death in North Korea a few years ago. And
there was a lot of buzz in the moments aerwards that we might see big change in
North Korea. So we decided to dig around and look at the data and see what the
empirical record showed because thats not an atypical situation. e same type of
thing happened also aer Hugo Chvezs death in Venezuela.
Frantz says researchers wanted to know how and when media reports of possible
governmental change came true.
She said they found that natural death in oce was usually, in her words, a

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non-event. She said leadership changes in dictatorial systems usually come during
momentous happenings, such as overthrows, elections or rebellions.
She says an examination of the leadership deaths between 1946 and 2012 shows there
are several conditions that might make change more likely.
e more centralized the power, she says, the more likely change will happen. In other
words, if there are few or no governmental structures to manage the continuation of
the system, change is more probable.
Frantz says pressure, such as protests, on the ruling power in the months before a
dictators death can also increase the likelihood.
e study also examined whether overthrows are more likely to take place when a ruler
is old. Frantz says researchers did not nd that to be the case.
She says there are lessons to be learned from the study. She says an old dictatorial
leader is a sign of a skilled politician, who is able to stay in power for a long time.
e other takeaway point, I think, is that leadership transitions more generally are
moments that increase a countrys baseline risk of regime collapse. But death in oce
is really not the major moment that we can leverage those types of occurrences.
Researchers say another reason there is little change aer a dictatorial ruler dies in
oce is that top ocials see no reason to change policies. Some countries have
changed the constitution to permit them to extend their terms, sometimes by many
years. Frantz says they use that method to give the appearance of democracy rather
than using force to remain in power.
Im Kelly Jean Kelly.

VOA Correspondent Joe De Capua reported this story from Washington. Christopher
Jones-Cruise adapted it into VOA Special English. Caty Weaver was the editor.
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Words in is Story
buzz - n. excited talk about something
atypical - adj. not typical : not usual or normal
empirical - adj. based on testing or experience
baseline - n. information that is used as a starting point by which to compare other
information
regime - n. a form of government
leverage - v. to use (something valuable) to achieve a desired result

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