UNIVERSIDAD AUTNOMA DEL CARMEN

FACULTAD DE INGENIERA Y TECNOLOGA

DES DAIT

MATERIA:
Mtodos Numricos.

TAREA:
Ajuste por Mnimos Cuadrados: Ajuste Lineal, Exponencial y
Logartmico.

ALUMNO:
Rodrguez Daz, Juan Jos.

PROFESOR:
Sojo Amezquita, Alonso.

Cd. del Carmen, Campeche a 28 de Abril del 2016.

Ajuste Lineal

Donde los parmetros y estn dados por:

Ajuste Exponencial

Donde = y = . Los parmetros y son dados por:

Ajuste Logartmico

Caso 1

Utilizando el mtodo de ajuste lineal:

Cdigo de la grfica:
x=[1910 1921 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005];
y=[165 183 193 265 285 374 654 783 1020 1310 1299 1748];
plot(x,y,'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('Poblacin')
grid on

Grfica:

Tabla:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

1910
1921
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
2005

165
183
193
265
285
374
654
783
1020
1310
1299
1748

Hallando :
=

(1910 + 1921 + 1930 + 1940 + 1950 + 1960 + 1970 + 1980 + 1990 + 1995 + 2000 + 2005)
12

= 1962.5833

Hallando :
=

(165 + 183 + 193 + 265 + 285 + 374 + 654 + 783 + 1020 + 1310 + 1299 + 1748)
12

= 689.9166

Anlisis de datos:

52.5833
41.5833
32.5833
22.5833
12.5833
2.5833
7.4167
17.4167
27.4167
32.4167
37.4167
42.4167

524.9166
506.9166
496.9166
424.9166
404.9166
315.9166
35.9166
93.0834
330.0834
620.0834
609.0834
1058.0834

(, )
27601.84705278
21079.26505278
16191.18265278
9596.01905278
5095.18705278
816.10735278
266.38264722
1621.20565278
9049.79755278
20101.05755278
22789.89085278
44880.40615278

( )
2765.00343889
1729.17083889
1061.67143889
510.00543889
158.33943889
6.67343889
55.00743889
303.34143889
751.67543889
1050.84243889
1400.00943889
1799.17643889

(, ) = 178555.58333336
( ) = 11590.91666668
( )2 = 3217678.916666720

( )
275537.43695556
256964.43935556
246926.10735556
180554.11695556
163957.45295556
99803.29815556
1290.00215556
8664.51935556
108955.05095556
384503.42295556
370982.58815556
1119540.48135556

Los siguientes clculos se realizarn en base a las frmulas presentadas al inicio del
documento.
Calculando el parmetro :
=

178555.58333336
11590.91666668

= 15.404785356334
Calculando el parmetro :
= 689.9166 (15.404785356334)(1962.5833)
= 29543.2578804257
Hallando la ecuacin de la recta que presenta el mejor ajuste a nuestros puntos en el
plano:
= 29543.2578804257 + 15.404785356334
= 15.404785356334 29543.2578804257
Hallando la correlacin :
(178555.58333336)2
=
(11590.91666668)(3217678.916666720)
2

2 = 0.8548430426597
Cdigo de grfica aplicando ajuste lineal:
x=1910:0.1:2005;
y=15.404785356334*x-29543.2578804257
x1=[1910 1921 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005];
y1=[165 183 193 265 285 374 654 783 1020 1310 1299 1748];
plot(x,y,x1,y1, 'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('Poblacin')
grid on

Grfica:

Proyeccin de poblacin para el ao 2020:

= (15.404785356334)(2020) 29543.2578804257
= 1574.40853936898 1574
Cdigo de grfica aplicando ajuste lineal para el ao 2020:
x=1910:0.1:2020;
y=15.404785356334*x-29543.2578804257
x1=[1910 1921 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2020];
y1=[165 183 193 265 285 374 654 783 1020 1310 1299 1748 1574];
plot(x,y,x1,y1, 'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('Poblacin')
grid on

Grfica para el ao 2020:

Utilizando el mtodo de ajuste exponencial:

Cdigo de la grfica:
x=[1910 1921 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005];
y=[165 183 193 265 285 374 654 783 1020 1310 1299 1748];
plot(x,y,'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('Poblacin')
grid on

Grfica:

Tabla:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

1910
1921
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
2005

165
183
193
265
285
374
654
783
1020
1310
1299
1748

Anlisis de datos:

ln
5.1059454739006
5.2094861528414
5.2626901889049
5.5797298259862
5.6524891802687
5.9242557974145
6.4831073514572
6.6631326959908
6.9275579062783
7.1777824161952
7.1693500166706
7.4662275562155

3648100
3690241
3724900
3763600
3802500
3841600
3880900
3920400
3960100
3980025
4000000
4020025

ln

1910
1921
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
2005

9752.35585515015
10007.4228996083
10156.9920645865
10824.6758624132
11022.353901524
11611.5413629324
12771.7214823707
13193.0027380618
13785.8402334938
14319.6759203094
14338.7000333412
14969.7862502121

ln = 74.621754562123897
12

2 = 46232391

=1

12

= 23551

=1
12

ln = 146754.0686040036

=1

Los siguientes clculos se realizarn en base a las frmulas presentadas al inicio del
documento.
Calculando el parmetro :
=

(74.621754562123897)(46232391) (23551)(146754.0686040036)
(12)(46232391) (23551)

= 45.027612647425
Calculando el parmetro :

= 45.027612647425
= 0.000000000000000000027845581643805
Calculando el parmetro :
=

(12)(146754.0686040036) (23551)(74.621754562123897)
(12)(46232391) (23551)2

 = 0.0261115496723
Hallando la ecuacin exponencial que presenta el mejor ajuste a nuestros puntos en el
plano:

= 0.000000000000000000027845581643805 0.0261115496723
Proyeccin de poblacin para el ao 2020:

= 0.000000000000000000027845581643805 (0.0261115496723)(2020)
= 2247.82349308729 2248
Cdigo de grfica aplicando ajuste exponencial para el ao 2020:
x=1910:0.1:2020;
y=0.000000000000000000027845581643805*exp((0.0261115496723)*(x));
x1=[1910 1921 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2020];
y1=[165 183 193 265 285 374 654 783 1020 1310 1299 1748 2248];
plot(x,y,x1,y1, 'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('Poblacin')
grid on

Grfica para el ao 2020:

Utilizando el mtodo de ajuste logartmico:

Cdigo de la grfica:
x=[1910 1921 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005];
y=[165 183 193 265 285 374 654 783 1020 1310 1299 1748];
plot(x,y,'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('Poblacin')
grid on

Grfica:

Tabla:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

1910
1921
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
2005

165
183
193
265
285
374
654
783
1020
1310
1299
1748

Anlisis de datos:

ln

ln

(ln )2

1246.55165597171
1383.59001278665
1460.09812940649
2006.1674617952
2159.04162569397
2835.18170733199
4961.10588941275
5943.63721284816
7747.80771607291
9953.90312141439
9873.57229494516
13290.7420458667

165
183
193
265
285
374
654
783
1020
1310
1299
1748

7.5548585210407
7.5606011627686
7.5652752818989
7.5704432520574
7.5755846515578
7.5806997522246
7.585788821732
7.5908521236886
7.5958899177185
7.598399329324
7.6009024595421
7.6033993397407

57.075887272941273
57.162689942457902
57.233390090910490
57.311611032621421
57.389482812918111
57.467008733378115
57.544192047914159
57.621035963707726
57.697543642097557
57.735672367871409
57.773718199473144
57.811681519569312

12

12

ln = 12(62861.39887354607) = 754336.786482553

=1

12

=1

= 8279

12

ln = 90.982694613293887

=1
12

12

(ln )2 = 12(689.8239136258607) = 8277.88696351033

=1

Calculando el parmetro :
=

754336.786482553 (8279)(90.982694613293887)
8277.88696351033 (90.982694613293887)2
= 30102.7840053591

Calculando el parmetro :
=

8279 (30102.7840053591)(90.982694613293887)
12
= 227546.117014128

Hallando la ecuacin logartmica que presenta el mejor ajuste a nuestros puntos en el

plano:
= 227546.117014128 + 30102.7840053591 ln

Proyeccin de poblacin para el ao 2020:

= 227546.117014128 + 30102.7840053591 ln(2020)
= 1561.74063172482 1562
Cdigo de grfica aplicando ajuste logartmico para el ao 2020:
x=1910:0.1:2020;
y=-227546.117014128+(30102.7840053591)*log (x);
x1=[1910 1921 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2020];
y1=[165 183 193 265 285 374 654 783 1020 1310 1299 1748 1562];
plot(x,y,x1,y1, 'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('Poblacin')
grid on

Grfica para el ao 2020:

Caso 2

Tabla:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

333.13
330.62
331.60
332.67
334.71
336.00
337.77
339.32
340.90
341.41
343.87
344.88
346.04
347.33

Utilizando el mtodo de ajuste lineal:

Cdigo de la grfica:
x=[1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
1987];
y=[333.13 330.62 331.60 332.67 334.71 336.00 337.77 339.32 340.90 341.41
343.87 344.88 346.04 347.33];
plot(x,y,'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('CO2 (PPM)')
grid on

Grfica:

Anlisis de datos:
= 1980.5

6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5

5.459285714286
7.969285714286
6.989285714286
5.919285714286
3.879285714286
2.589285714286
0.819285714286
0.730714285714
2.310714285714
2.820714285714
5.280714285714
6.290714285714
7.450714285714
8.740714285714

= 338.589285714286

(, )
35.485357142859
43.831071428573
31.451785714287
20.717500000001
9.698214285715
3.883928571429
0.409642857143
0.365357142857
3.466071428571
7.051785714285
18.482499999999
28.308214285713
40.978928571427
56.814642857141

( )
42.25
30.25
20.25
12.25
6.25
2.25
0.25
0.25
2.25
6.25
12.25
20.25
30.25
42.25

( )
29.803800510207196
63.509514795922925
48.850114795922359
35.037943367350316
15.048857653063441
6.704400510205561
0.671229081633121
0.533943367346521
5.339400510202761
7.956429081631042
27.885943367343916
39.573086224486204
55.513143367342678
76.400086224484809

14

(, ) = 300.9450000000001

=1
14

( )2 = 227.5

=1
14

(
) = 412.8278928571429

=1

Los siguientes clculos se realizarn en base a las frmulas presentadas al inicio del
documento.
Calculando el parmetro :
=

300.9450000000001
227.5

= 1.3228351648352
Calculando el parmetro :
= 338.589285714286 (1.3228351648352)(1980.5)
= 2281.28575824183
Hallando la ecuacin de la recta que presenta el mejor ajuste a nuestros puntos en el
plano:
= 1.3228351648352 2281.28575824183
Hallando la correlacin :
(300.9450000000001)2
=
(227.5)(412.8278928571429)
2

2 = 0.9643258984418
Proyeccin de CO2 para el ao 2016:
= 1.3228351648352(2016) 2281.28575824183
= 385.549934065933 2

Cdigo de grfica aplicando ajuste lineal para el ao 2016:

x=1974:0.1:2016;
y=1.3228351648352*x-2281.28575824183;
x1=[1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
2016];
y1=[333.13 330.62 331.60 332.67 334.71 336.00 337.77 339.32 340.90 341.41
343.87 344.88 346.04 347.33 385.549934065933 ];
plot(x,y,x1,y1,'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('CO2 (PPM)')
grid on

Grfica aplicando ajuste lineal para el ao 2016:

Utilizando el mtodo de ajuste exponencial:

Cdigo de la grfica:
x=[1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
1987];
y=[333.13 330.62 331.60 332.67 334.71 336.00 337.77 339.32 340.90 341.41
343.87 344.88 346.04 347.33];
plot(x,y,'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('CO2 (PPM)')
grid on

Grfica:

Tabla:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

333.13
330.62
331.60
332.67
334.71
336.00
337.77
339.32
340.90
341.41
343.87
344.88
346.04
347.33

Anlisis de datos:

ln

ln

5.8085328041883
5.8009696796249
5.8039294232611
5.8071510076332
5.8132644852732
5.8171111599632
5.8223651904832
5.8269436149395
5.8315891791439
5.8330841010854
5.8402636789718
5.8431965304389
5.8465543753122
5.8502753366702

3896676
3900625
3904576
3908529
3912484
3916441
3920400
3924361
3928324
3932289
3936256
3940225
3944196
3948169

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

11466.0437554677
11456.9151172592
11468.5645403639
11480.7375420908
11498.6371518704
11512.0629855672
11528.2830771567
11543.1753011951
11558.2097530632
11567.0057724523
11587.0831390801
11598.7451129212
11611.25698937
11624.4970939637

ln = 81.545230566988991
14

2 = 54913551

=1

14

= 27727

=1
14

ln = 161501.2173318215

=1

Los siguientes clculos se realizarn en base a las frmulas presentadas al inicio del
documento.
Calculando el parmetro :
=

(81.545230566988991)(54913551) (27727)(161501.2173318215)
(14)(54913551) (27727)

= 1.9075077883381
Calculando el parmetro :

= 1.9075077883381
= 0.1484498945166

Calculando el parmetro :
=

(14)(161501.2173318215) (27727)(81.545230566988991)
(14)(54913551) (27727)2
= = 0.0039041490101

Hallando la ecuacin exponencial que presenta el mejor ajuste a nuestros puntos en el

plano:

= 0.1484498945166 0.0039041490101
Proyeccin de CO2 para el ao 2016:
= 0.1484498945166 (0.0039041490101)(2016)
= 388.874479221284 2
Cdigo de grfica aplicando ajuste exponencial para el ao 2016:
x=1974:0.1:2016;
y=0.1484498945166*(exp(0.0039041490101*x));
x1=[1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
2016];
y1=[333.13 330.62 331.60 332.67 334.71 336.00 337.77 339.32 340.90 341.41
343.87 344.88 346.04 347.33 388.874479221284];
plot(x,y,x1,y1,'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('CO2 (PPM)')
grid on

Grfica aplicando ajuste exponencial para el ao 2016:

Utilizando el mtodo de ajuste logartmico:

Cdigo de la grfica:
x=[1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
1987];
y=[333.13 330.62 331.60 332.67 334.71 336.00 337.77 339.32 340.90 341.41
343.87 344.88 346.04 347.33];
plot(x,y,'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('CO2 (PPM)')
grid on

Grfica:

Tabla:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

333.13
330.62
331.60
332.67
334.71
336.00
337.77
339.32
340.90
341.41
343.87
344.88
346.04
347.33

Anlisis de datos:

ln

ln

(ln )2

2527.7295504964
2508.85157420056
2516.45598764687
2524.74434829416
2540.39585254267
2550.35657372247
2563.9621218183
2575.89927308577
2588.06565860597
2592.10971993795
2610.96030588119
2618.80289172367
2627.78548934715
2637.75643697552

333.13
330.62
331.60
332.67
334.71
336.00
337.77
339.32
340.90
341.41
343.87
344.88
346.04
347.33

7.5878172199934
7.5883236773352
7.5888298783078
7.5893358231706
7.5898415121827
7.5903469456026
7.5908521236886
7.5913570466986
7.5918617148899
7.5923661285198
7.5928702878448
7.5933741931213
7.5938778446051
7.5943812425518

57.574970164028365
57.582656232006016
57.590338921897185
57.598018236860575
57.605694180051771
57.613366754618717
57.621035963707726
57.628701810460491
57.636364298011010
57.644023429494737
57.651679208036377
57.659331636760555
57.666980718784195
57.674626457222622

14

14

ln = 14(35983.87578427865) = 503774.260979901

=1

14

=1

= 4740.25

14

ln = 106.2754356385122

=1
14

14

(ln )2 = 14(806.7477880119404) = 11294.4690321672

=1

Calculando el parmetro :
=

503774.260979901 (4740.25)(106.2754356385122)
11294.4690321672 (106.2754356385122)2
= 2619.66000239696

Calculando el parmetro :
=

4740.25 (2619.66000239696)(106.2754356385122 )
14
= 19547.5184271088

Hallando la ecuacin logartmica que presenta el mejor ajuste a nuestros puntos en el

plano:
= 19547.5184271088 + 2619.66000239696ln

Proyeccin de CO2 para el ao 2016:

= 19547.5184271088 + 2619.66000239696ln(2016)
= 385.135623596532 2
Cdigo de grfica aplicando ajuste logartmico para el ao 2016:
x=1974:0.1:2016;
y=-19547.5184271088+2619.66000239696*log(x);
x1=[1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
2016];
y1=[333.13 330.62 331.60 332.67 334.71 336.00 337.77 339.32 340.90 341.41
343.87 344.88 346.04 347.33 385.135623596532];
plot(x,y,x1,y1,'ob');
xlabel('Ao')
ylabel('CO2 (PPM)')
grid on

Grfica aplicando ajuste logartmico para el ao 2016: