Opening Bell

November 25, 2016

Market Outlook
Indian markets are expected to open positive taking cues from global
markets. Negative FII flows and uncertainty about the impact of
demonetisation continue to weigh on the markets.

Todays Highlights
UK GDP YoY
Results: Bata India
Index Movement (past month)

30000

8600

28000

Key Developments

BSE (RHS)

For Q2FY17, we expect Bata to post 6% YoY revenue growth to

| 610 crore. The EBITDA margin is expected to improve 274 bps
YoY to 11.3% on the back of cost rationalisation measures leading
to lower rentals, employee & other expenses. Though EBITDA is
likely to increase 40% YoY to | 68.8 crore, PAT is expected to
decline 33% YoY to | 36.3 crore due to exceptional income in
Q2FY16 to the tune of | 31.8 crore
USFDA has inspected Sun Pharmas Mohali plant during
November 7-16 and issued seven Form 483 observations, citing
four deviations from norms in the laboratory system, two in the
quality system and one in the production system. This plant has
already been under USFDA import alert since September 2013
Natco Pharma has received USFDA approval for Perrigo Pharmas
respiratory capsule Endocort (Budesonide) in the US. Natcos
marketing partner Alvogen plans to launch this product in the US
immediately. Budesonide annual sales in the US are ~US$370
million

Sensex
Nifty

Close Previous
25,860 26,052
7,965.5 8,033.3

24-Nov

22-Nov

18-Nov

16-Nov

11-Nov

24000
9-Nov

7800
7-Nov

26000
3-Nov

8200
1-Nov

US markets were closed yesterday on account of the Thanksgiving

holiday

32000

9000

28-Oct

Markets Yesterday
Domestic markets ended in the negative territory amid continued
worries on demonetisation and a weakening of the rupee on
expectations of a US Fed rate hike

NSE (LHS)

Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)

-0.7
-7.4
-1.0
17.9
-0.8
-7.7
0.2
18.1

Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)

CY14
99,525
-30,570

CY15
15,919
66,249

YTD CY16
16,600
23,323

Yesterday Last 5 Days

-2,010
-5,963
1,648
6,333

World Indices Monthly performance

Nikkei
18,457
6.4%
Germany
10,689
-0.7%

Dow Jones
19,083
5.2%
U.K.
6,829
-2.3%

Shanghai
3,233
3.6%
Kospi
1,973
-3.7%

Nasdaq
5,381
2.3%
BSE
25,860
-8.2%

France
4,543
-0.2%
NSE
7,966
-8.5%

Nifty Heat Map

NMDC
ACC
Hero
Moto
Ultratech
PNB
ITC
HDFC Ltd

119.7
4.1%
1,325.2
1.7%
3,052.0
1.3%
3,483.8
0.9%
137.9
0.3%
223.5
-0.5%
1,217.7
-0.8%

HDFC
Bank

1,165.5

ICICI
Bank

259.3

IDFC

-1.6%
-2.1%
55.3
-2.5%

Hindalco
Ambuja
Cement
Tech M.
BPCL
Cipla
Dr Reddy
HUL
NTPC
RIL
Axis Bank

180.5
3.9%
201.3
1.6%
458.7
1.2%
638.1
0.7%
553.7
0.2%
3,111.7
-0.5%
825.3
-0.8%
157.0
-1.8%
987.4
-2.1%
468.2
-2.6%

Bank of
Baroda
TCS
SBI
Bharti
Airtel
Tata
power
BHEL
ONGC
Lupin
M&M
Sun
Pharma

167.1
3.1%
2,188.5
1.5%
261.8
1.2%
302.4
0.6%
69.4
0.1%
124.4
-0.6%
277.3
-0.9%

Vedanta
Ltd
Tata Steel
Bajaj
Auto
HCL Tech
Grasim
Ind
L&T
Maruti

1,458.5 Indusind
Bank
-1.9%
1,163.7
-2.4%
682.5
-2.7%

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

GAIL
Kotak
Bank

221.8
2.3%
398.2
1.4%
2,630.9
1.2%
767.8
0.6%
810.3
-0.2%
1,349.7
-0.6%
4,830.2
-1.0%
1,044.4
-1.9%
402.6
-2.4%
742.1
-3.1%

Power
Grid

185.1

Cairn
India

244.3

Infosys
Wipro
Yes Bank
Asian
Paints
Coal India
IDEA

1.9%
1.3%
930.3
1.1%
450.8
0.4%
1,119.9
-0.5%
936.1
-0.6%
300.4
-1.2%
71.5
-2.0%

United
Spirits

1,851.2

Tata
Motors

453.0

-2.5%
-3.9%

Markets Today
Close Previous Change (%) MTD(%)
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs

YTD(%)

29,013
40,413
49.0
NA

29,391
40,831
49.0
NA

-1.3
-1.0
-0.1
NA

-3.4
-3.8
1.3
20.9

16.1
22.5
31.3
24.4

68.75
1.06
113.76

68.57
1.06
113.33

0.3
0.0
0.4

-2.9
-3.9
-7.9

-3.8
-2.9
5.7

62.9
7.7
33.5
14.1
45.6

62.7
7.8
34.0
14.1
45.0

0.3
-0.6
-1.4
0.5
1.3

-13.4
NA
-17.2
-11.0
-2.1

2.0
NA
13.7
-15.6
-1.6

18-Nov

21-Nov
BSE Cash

2,481
23,743

17-Nov

2,499
18,595

22-Nov

23-Nov

24-Nov

NSE Cash

NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)

600000.00
400000.00
200000.00
0.00
17-Nov

18-Nov

21-Nov

22-Nov

23-Nov

783,338

4.00%
6.50%
6.00%
4.31%
-0.3bln $
22.88bln $
363.82bln $
7.90%
7.30%
31.22bln $
-0.70%
-0.30%
-24.8bln $
8.34bln $
5.75%
5.58%
3.57%
2.48%

536,505

4.00%
6.25%
5.75%
4.20%
-0.3bln $
22.51bln $
365.75bln $
7.10%
7.60%
33.67bln $
0.70%
0.90%
-23.8bln $
10.16bln $
4.34%
6.18%
3.39%
2.67%

2,307
18,360

N/A
N/A
N/A
October
Q2
October
w/e
Q1
12M
October
Septmber
September
Q2
October
October
October
October
October

496,383

RBI Cash Reserve Ratio

RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
CPI YY
Current Account Balance
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy

25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

569,746

Prior Values

2,549
19,467

Latest

346,127

Period

621,194

Key Economic Indicator

2,412
17,641

Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)

KEY ECONOMICINDICATORS

2,660
18,262

Key Data Points

24-Nov

NSE Derivative

Sectoral Index

Sectoral Performance Monthly Returns (%)

Sector
Auto

Close

Previous

Change

% Change

Volume

19386.37

19650.34

-263.97

(1.34)

1836000

Banks
BSE Small Cap
Capital Goods
Consumer Durables

20938

21246.51

-308.51

(1.45)

6715000

11792.74

11901.39

-108.65

(0.91)

66926000
5631000

13640.1

13669.18

-29.08

(0.21)

10849.72

10942.43

-92.71

(0.85)

357000

8304.6

8368.14

-63.54

(0.76)

1023000

FMCG
Healthcare

17870.57

18140.06

-269.49

(1.49)

1830000

IT

11396.98

11501.95

-104.97

(0.91)

1254000

Metals

10368.32

10243.72

124.6

1.22

10048000

Mid Cap

10993.02

11070.76

-77.74

(0.70)

64406000

Oil & Gas

11643.75

11735.39

-91.64

(0.78)

2321000

Power

1942.77

1948.42

-5.65

(0.29)

9800000

PSU

7659.45

7653.76

5.69

0.07

18389000

Real Estate

1235.91

1251.61

-15.7

(1.25)

9788000

Metals
PSU
Power
Oil & Gas
Healthcare
Banks
FMCG
Capital Goods
IT
Mid Cap
Auto
BSE Small Cap
Consumer
Real Estate
-27.0

-0.7
-2.1
-4.2
-4.8
-5.6
-5.9
-8.0
-9.1
-10.0
-11.5
-11.7
-12.7
-14.7
-19.3
-22.0

-17.0

-12.0
(%)

-7.0

-2.0

Key News for Today

Company/
Industry
TCS

News

View

ASML has partnered with TCS to simplify ASML, one of the world's leading chipbusiness processes and enhance stakeholder making equipment maker, has selected TCS
experience
for implementation of unified global process
blueprint. TCS would simplify business
processes, improve efficieny and help ASML
to scale up its business. TCS has been
ASML's trusted partner for IT application
portfolio management, cyber secuirty
operationads and support for its product
lifecycle management platform. The deal
would help TCS maintain its growth
momentum

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Impact

3.0

Jagran
Prakashan

Jagran's Prakashan's board has approved an

IPO for Music Broadcast, which houses Radio
City (and Radio Mantra post its demerger)
aggregating to a fresh issue of | 400 crore and
offer for sale for existing shareholders

While the valuation details are still unknown,

this will unlock value for the company as its
radio division's implied current valuation is
at a steep discount to leader ENIL despite
having a comparable station strength (~39
station) and operating performance

Steel sector

The Directorate General of Safeguards (DGS)

has imposed a safeguard duty on imports of
hot-rolled flat sheets and plates priced below
US $504/tonne. DGS has continued the earlier
imposed provisional safeguard duty of 10% till
November 22, 2017, which will be reduced to
8% till November 22 2018, and then to 6% for
the final six months till May 22, 2019. The
safeguard duty is applicable on an ad-volarem
basis minus the anti dumping duty

Though HRC flat sheets and plates form a

relatively small part of the revenue mix as
well as product portfolio, domestic players
are likely to benefit from the imposition of
safeguard duty as it would protect the
players from cheap imports at predatory
prices

Key developments (Continued)

Media reports indicate the government's directive for state agencies to pay 75% of an arbitral award they wish to
dispute, into an escrow account is not being implemented. No such disbursement (against a margin-free bank
guarantee) has taken place
The Roads Ministry has decided to extend the exemption of toll collection across all national highways till midnight of
December 2, 2016 to facilitate smooth traffic movement post the government's decision to ban | 500 & | 1000 old
currency notes
Cadila is recalling 20500 bottles of anti-depressant Bupropion Hydrochloride extended release tablets for failed
dissolution specifications. This recalls is considered under class III recall category
SBI has announced plans to issue ~21 crore shares at | 269.59 per share to the government for raising ~| 5680 crore
as capital infusion
Indian Navy's seventh landing craft utility, the largest of its kind, was launched today. The ship has a capability to
transport two tanks or four special vehicles and 160 Army troops for landing in remote areas. The ship is built by
Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers
As per media sources, Rio Tinto has indicated that in order to improve cash flow generation, the company is also
prepared to cut iron ore output
As per media sources, China will investigate and severely punish illegal expansion undertaken by coal and steel firms
as part of cutting down the capacity in the two industries
As per media sources, JSW Group is planning to diversify into electric car manufacturing and has already set up a team
of officials to work on the car project

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Sensex Chart

Technical Outlook

We said, "Overnight cues are negative ...

weakness below the candle can open up
negative options ... " The index opened weak
but traded volatile holding Wednesday's low
initially. However, later breaking the low, it
settled 192 points or 0.7% lower. Except IT,
metal, PSU banks, all other sectors settled flat
to negative while the A/D ratio turned
marginally negative.
The action formed a Bear candle. It was the
third candle inside Monday's range suggesting
indecisive mode of the market as November
account expired. Due to oversold technical
position, we may watch if yesterday's and
Monday's low remains protected in December
account, with supportive activity preferably
emerging from its very first day, else not.

Pivot Points

CNX Nifty Technical Picture

Index/Stocks
SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
AXIS BANK
HDFC BANK
SBI
HDFC
MARUTI SUZUKI
TATA MOTORS
M&M
BAJAJ AUTO
TCS
INFOSYS
CIPLA
ONGC
RELIANCE
BHARTI AIRTEL
DLF

Close
25860.17
7965.50
1325.15
468.20
1165.50
261.75
1217.65
4830.15
452.95
1163.70
2630.90
2188.45
930.30
553.65
277.25
987.35
302.40
113.05

S1
25764.40
7937.10
1319.45
462.95
1155.50
260.75
1209.90
4794.80
446.30
1147.85
2621.95
2183.05
930.75
549.70
274.35
977.85
302.10
111.25

S2
25700.40
7914.45
1305.95
459.40
1150.00
258.65
1197.40
4773.55
441.70
1138.00
2594.95
2165.40
926.60
546.35
272.95
974.25
300.55
109.40

R1
25883.45
7973.25
1346.40
469.75
1168.20
265.00
1218.75
4834.75
454.65
1168.75
2675.95
2218.35
939.05
556.30
277.65
989.55
305.25
113.30

R2
25943.00
7991.30
1356.45
473.15
1174.55
266.40
1223.20
4854.75
458.80
1179.20
2693.10
2227.30
942.40
559.60
279.30
995.35
307.55
114.35

Trend
-ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
Neutral
-ve
-ve
+ve
-ve

Nifty Call Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) November 2016

7600
7700
7800
7900
8000
8100
8200
8300
8400

36
39

59
56

3
10
45

5
5
60.0

40.0

20.0

32
0.0
Put

20.0
Call

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

7938-7900
8010-8055

40.0

60.0

80.0

Short Term
Down
8300
7750
8300
8262
8307

Advances / Declines
Advances
1341
838

BSE
NSE

Declines
1215
747

Unchanged
168
91

Daily Technical Calls

1. Buy Cadila Healthcare in the range of 395.00-396.00
2. Sell Jubilant Foodwarks in the range of 859.00-861.00

*All recommendations are of November Future

See Momentum Pick for more details

Buy LICHF DEC Fut at 530.50-531.00
View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
CMP: 524.7
Target 1: 534.1
Target 2: 541.4
Stop Loss: 526.9
0

34

10

Intraday
Range bound

Intraday Derivative Strategy

0
0
0
1

14
16

Nifty 50
Trend
Trend Reversal
Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA

Sell TITIND DEC Fut at 305.50-306.00

View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
CMP: 307.6
Target 1: 303.1
Target 2: 297.8
Stop Loss: 308.4
See Daily Derivatives for more details

Results/Events Calendar

07

Monday

Eclerx Services
Shree Cement
GSK Consumer
Markit Eurozone Retail PMI
Pitti Laminations

14

28

Tuesday

22

Monday

16

November
Tuesday

29

Monday

23

November
Tuesday

30

November

06

Monday

Markit US Services PMI

Nikkei Japan PMI Services
0
0
0

November

Wednesday

Solar Industries
Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI
Markit US Mfg PMI
0
0

Tuesday

November

Wednesday

Balkrishna Industries
Japan Industrial Prod MoM
0
0
0

US GDP Annualized QoQ

0
0
0
0

December

November

Wednesday

US Industrial Prod MoM

Voltas, IGL, SCI
0
0
0

L&T
IRB Infrastructures Ltd
0
0
0

November

November

Wednesday

Lupin, Cipla, Premco Global

Ramco cement, J&K Bank
Apollo Tyre, Indian Bank
Pidilite, Bosch, NCC Limited
Powergrid, JK Tyre

HPCL
AIA Engineering
GAIL, Concor
Vardhaman Textiles
0

November

Timken India
Cox & Kings
Oil India
Mahanagar Gas
0

05

15

Monday

Sobha Limited
Japan Trade Balance
0
0
0

09

November

VA Tech Wabag, HEG, ENIL

MRPL,Deccan Cem, BHEL
Ashok Leyland, Bharat Forge
PTC India Finance, Wabco
Tata Comm, KEC Itnl

November

Aurobindo Pharma
Heidelberg Cement
Kalpataru Power
0
0

21

08

November

07

December
Tuesday

US Trade Balance
Eurozone GDP SA YoY
0
0
0

December
Wednesday

RBI Repurchase Rate

RBI Reverse Repo Rate
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
China Mfg Prodn YoY
China Industrial Prod YoY

Major Economic Events this Week

Date
23-Nov
23-Nov
23-Nov
24-Nov

Event
Country
Markit US Manufacturing PMUS
Markit Eurozone ManufacturEU
Markit Eurozone Services PMEU
Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg
JN

Date
Event
25-Nov Markit US Services PMI
25-Nov GDP YoY

10

November
Thursday

Motherson Sumi, Talwalkars

Page Ind, Sun Pharma
Bajaj Elec,Phillips Carbon
Camlin Fine Sc, Eros
City Union Bank, Thermax

17

November
Thursday

Petronet LNG
US CPI YoY
0
0
0

24

November
Thursday

25

December
Thursday

02

Thursday

ECB Main Refinancing Rate

Japan GDP SA QoQ
China Trade Balance
0
0

09

19

Friday

Saturday

November
Saturday

India cements
Siyaram
0
0
0

November
Friday

26

November

03

December

10

December

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

December
Friday

US Unemployement Rate
0
0
0
0

December

November

Hindalco, Divi's Lab

Control Print, Emmbi In
Shree Pushkar Chemica
PTC India, Rupa
0

November

Bata
UK GDP YoY
0
0
0

GSPL, Graphite India

Markit US Mfg PMI
Markit UK PMI Mfg
Markit Eurozone Mfg
Nikkei India PMI Mfg

08

Friday

M&M, Apollo Hospital, SBI

Navneet Education, D-Link
IPCA Lab, BPCL, Sun TV
BOB, Tata Steel, Jet Airways
Natco Pharma, GE Shipping

18

12

November

NHPC
NBCC
0
0
0

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg

0
0
0
0

01

11

December
Friday

US Wholesale Inv MoM

India Exports YoY
China PPI YoY
China CPI YoY
0

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

Result Preview
Period
Nov P
Nov P
Nov P
Nov P

Country Period
US
Nov P
UK
3Q P

Actual Expected Company

53.90
53.50
53.70
53.30 Bata India
54.10
52.90
51.10
-Expected
54.80
2.30%

Revenue
Q2FY17E
610.0

Chg(%)
EBITDA
YoY
QoQ Q2FY17E
6.1
-9.5
68.8

Chg(%)
PAT
YoY
QoQ Q2FY17E
40.2 -16.2
36.3

Previous
54.80
2.30%

0063

Revenue = NII; EBITDA = PPP for Banks and NBFC;

Recent Releases

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Date
24 November 2016

Result Update- NBCC

Report

24 November 2016

Event Update- Zee Entertainment

24 November 2016

Result Update- Moto Gaze November 2016

23 November 2016

Result Update- Larsen & Toubro

23 November 2016

Result Update- Siyaram Silk Mills

Chg(%)
YoY
QoQ
-33.0
-27.9

Research Product Basket

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Technical trends for a week considering key

technical indicators & statistical information
Features stocks with a trading outlook for a
week based on short-term technical trends
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Trading opportunities in futures & options
segment based on data analysis, overall
market trend, volatility & open interest
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data, FII activity, Heavyweights OI analysis
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Derivatives outlook on global equity indices,
currencies and commodities. Also,
elaborating the likely impact on the Indian
bourses.
Trading outlook for a month based on
medium-term technical trends considering
key technical indicators & statistical
information.

Medium & Long term recommendations

Tecno Funda
On basis of Technical and Fundamental
whenever opportunity occurs we give these
Pick/Technical
calls
Deliver Call
Positional Derivatives
Stocks on the move

Identifying Out-performers/Under-performers
vis a vis index along with positional
recommendation on Stocks/Nifty.
Covers stocks, which are likely to show
significant upward movement in the next 15
days due to change in trader sentiment.

Detailed Company
Report

Fundamental report understanding the

business model and future prospects of the
company & valuations.

Equity Model
Portfolio
High Dividend
Yield Stocks

A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large

cap, midcap and diversified
Features high dividend yielding stocks for
assured returns on investment

Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN

Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
iClick-2-Gain

Weekly

1-7 days

5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest

Weekly

1-7 days

4 5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page

Weekly

1-7 days

4 5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

10%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iClick-2-Invest

Not regularly
recommended

3 months

20%

Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN

& iClick-2-Invest

Fortnightly
Monthly

When published

Quarterly

3 months

> 1 year

15 20%

> 20% &

above

Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclaimer
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subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research