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a) TASK 1
HISTORY OF PROBABILITY
Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will
occur or
has occurred. In mathematics the concept has been given an exact meaning
in probability theory, that is used extensively in such area of study as
mathematics,
statistics, finance, gambling, science, and phisolophy to draw conclusions
about the
likelihood of potential events and underlying mechanics of complex
systems.
Pierre-Simon Laplace (1774) made the first attempt to deduce a rule for the
combination of observations from the principles of the theory of
probabilities. He represented the law of probability of errors by a curve y =
(x), x being any error and y its probability, and laid down three properties
of this curve:
1.
it is symmetric as to the y-axis;
2.
the x-axis is an asymptote, the probability of the error
being 0;
3.
the area enclosed is 1, it being certain that an error exists.
He also gave (1781) a formula for the law of facility of error (a term due to
Lagrange,
1774), but one which led to unmanageable equations. Daniel Bernoulli
(1778)
introduced the principle of the maximum product of the probabilities of a
system of
concurrent errors.
PROBABILITY THEORY
There are other methods for quantifying uncertainty, such as the Dempster-
Shafer
theory or possibility theory, but those are essentially different and not
compatible with
the laws of probability as they are usually understood
APPLICATION
Two major applications of probability theory in everyday life are
in risk assessment and in trade on commodity markets. Governments
typically apply
probabilistic methods inenvironmental regulation where it is called "pathway
analysis",
often measuring well-being using methods that are stochastic in nature, and
choosing
projects to undertake based on statistical analyses of their probable effect on
the
population as a whole.
b)
CATEGORIES OF PROBABILITY
The theoretical probability is the result that one should get if an infinite
number of trials were done. One would expect the probability of heads
to be 0.5 and the probability of tails to be 0.5 for a fair coin.****
PART 2
(a)
Suppose you are playing the Monopoly game with two of your friends. To
start the
game, each player will have to toss the die once. The player who obtains the
highest
number will start the game. List all the possible outcomes when the dice is
tossed once.
={1,2,3,4,5,6
(b)
Table
PART3
Table >paper
(b)
B=
D= PR
= {(2,2), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)}